Bayesian Models

· Please provide your answers as a pdf file (first file)

· Please upload your model file (second file)

· Late uploads will receive a 10 point deduction for each day the upload is late

Use a Bayesian Belief Network software to create a model and provide answers to the following problem (excel solutions or manual calculations are not accepted)

Problem 1

A. Build a Bayesian Network based on the diagram provided above (Diagram A). Use the probability tables to define the probability distributions for each node.

a. What is the probability of “Slippery” given that the season is “fall” and “watering” is false?

b. What is the season if “slippery” is true and “Sprinkler” is false?