Kyoto Position Paper- global climate change

THe BiG Six United States

• The treaty called for 55% global reduction of carbon dioxide, based on 1990 levels. • The United States is responsible for more than one-third (36%) of the entire world’s CO2 emissions – far more than any other country. • As one of the original signatories of the Kyoto treaty, the United States agreed to reduce emissions by 6% from its 1990 levels. • In 2001 President George W. Bush refused to ratify the treaty, citing these reasons:

o The US economy could suffer an estimated $400 billion in losses as a result of emissions restrictions on industry and transportation, and the US could lose almost 5 million jobs.

o Many developing nations that have extremely high emissions are not bound by the emissions limits set in the treaty. • Since pulling out of the treaty, U.S. emissions have increased 15% above 1990 levels—21% above our initial objective. • However, several recent events may foreshadow a change in the US position:

o America’s unique political structure gives each of the 50 states the autonomy to legislate Kyoto-like reforms on their own. Environmental leaders in some states are already promoting legislation that supports the objectives of the Kyoto Treaty.

o The California Air Resources Board has set tough emissions standards and is well known for its strict emissions regulations. o The Chicago Climate Exchange is a group of North American municipalities, companies and organizations that have agreed to reduce their emissions

over the next several years. o Massachusetts, New York, and New Hampshire are creating emission reduction and trading systems.

• The recent 2006 elections have placed many in office who are sympathetic to environmental and global warming issues. This may lead to revisions in the US position on Kyoto.

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Six Countries and Their Positions on the Kyoto Treaty THe LeGAL PrOCeSS LeADiNG TO THe KyOTO PrOTOCOLS

1988

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established. Environmental concerns growing.

UN General Assembly held first debate on climate change; adopted 43/53 on the “Protection of the global climate for present and future generations of mankind (IPCC).”

1992

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) opened for signing at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Also referred to as the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED).

1994

Convention came into force March 21. 186 governments are party to the convention; it is close to achieving universal membership.

1995

In March and April, the Berlin Conference of the Parties (COP) sought to determine the commitments required by industrialized countries.

1997

These talks led to the Kyoto Protocol being adopted on December 11. 87 countries signed the Protocol.

1998

Talks to determine the Protocol’s rulebook were discussed in November in Buenos Aires and later in Bonn in July 2001.

2001

After much more negotiation in Marrakech during October and November, the rulebook for the Protocol was agreed upon; these became known as the Marrakech Accords.

2005

On February 16, the Kyoto Protocol finally came into effect 90 days after Russia ratified it.

Timetable source: http://globalgophers.com/articles/kyoto-protocol.htm

european Union • The European Union (EU) became a strong proponent of the treaty and has insisted that every provision be enforced. • Many European countries were offended by the US rejection of the treaty. This may have motivated them to ratify the treaty in spite of its flaws and their

own differences. • Although other nations have been willing to make necessary changes and, in some cases, forgive nations that failed to meet standards, the EU has opposed

any such compromise. • The EU was initially hesitant about giving credits for maintaining forests which store carbon in what are termed “carbon sinks.” • Despite its strong statements of commitment to the ideals of the treaty, the EU greenhouse gas emissions are only 2.9% lower than 1990 levels.

China • In 2004, just two years after ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, China backed up its commitment by announcing plans to generate 10% of its power from

renewable sources by 2010. • There are still a number of concerns about China’s dedication to the ideals of the Kyoto Protocol.

o China’s status as a developing country even though it has the world’s largest population and a rapidly expanding economy. o Developing country status exempts China from mandatory emission reduction objectives. o The exemption is a problem for China as it is the world’s largest coal producer. Its oil consumption has doubled in 20 years. o China does not show signs of complying with any requests for reductions in GHG emissions. o China is using a combination of CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and CER (Certified Emissions Reductions) benefits to enlist foreign

support for economic development projects, to promote its own contribution to global climate change, and to help reduce of acid rain.

russia • Russia’s support was a critical factor in the acceptance of Kyoto and the targeted 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. • However, subsequent developments have raised questions about Russia’s motives.

o Some suspect that Russia used its support of Kyoto as leverage to open the door to membership in the WTO. o Since Russia’s industrial output has dropped significantly since 1990, it now could gain billions of dollars through emissions trading. o Emissions trading allows Russia to sell its unused emissions to other signatory countries that emit more than the protocol allows. o Some feel that this practice defeats the purpose of setting GHG limits.

Japan • Even though it is a leading member of the Kyoto Protocol, Japan was initially reluctant to ratify the treaty when the United States refused to sign. • Its ratification in June 2002 was important because:

o Japan accounts for 8% of global GHG emissions. o Japan promised to reduce emissions by 6% of the published 1990 levels.

• Unfortunately, by 2002 Japan’s GHG emissions had actually increased by 11% over its 1990 levels. • This setback has not deterred Japan from advocating clean air technology or from manufacturing cars with hybrid technology.

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india • India ratified the treaty in 2002 because its representatives recognized the impact

that its population (1 billion) has on global warming. • Like China, India gained developing nation status and thus avoided reduction quotas. • India has only submitted one emissions report (in 1994). The data from that year

showed a 50% increase in emissions. • India’s prime minister maintains that per-capita emission rates of developing

countries are a fraction of those of developed nations.

Additional Thoughts • The responses and actions of India and China demonstrate that developing nation

status will need to be addressed in the future. Their actions also lend some credence to the US rationale for not signing the treaty.

• No matter how dedicated the Kyoto supporters are, there is no quick-fix solution to climate change. Carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere will be there for several generations.

• It will take a long-term, global effort and massive changes in energy usage to undo the damage.

• The Kyoto Protocol is not the ultimate solution. It is a necessary first step in that process.

1990 2002 1994 only

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USA EU China Russia Japan India

*1999, **2001 (both China figures include Hong Kong) Sources: UNFCCC (China figures from IEA)

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CO2 emissions (1,000 million metric tons)

Sources: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3143798.stm http://www.wikipedia.org (various articles)

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Image credit: World Resources Institute, 2005

Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/climate-atmosphere/map-504.html

This map shows the countries that have ratified or signed the Kyoto Protocol as of June 2005.

Ratifying countries are green. Those that have signed but not ratified are dark brown. Those that have neither signed nor ratified are grey.

For more information regarding the Kyoto Protocol, see http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

Signatories to the Kyoto Protocol: June 2005

The Kyoto Protocol – Some FAQs and QSAs (Frequently Asked Questions and Quick Short Answers)

FAQ: How many Kyoto treaties are there? And why is it called a Protocol? QSA: There is only really one treaty, but representatives of the world met six more times to discuss and negotiate terms of the Kyoto Protocol between

1997 and 2006. The word protocol means the first draft of a treaty. Technically, the Kyoto Protocol is now called the Kyoto Treaty. For an excellent graphic representing the timeline for the Kyoto Protocol, visit: http://maps.grida.no/go/download/mode/plain/f/kyoto_protocol_timeline_and_history.png

FAQ: What was the most important objective of the original treaty? QSA: In 1997, the Kyoto Treaty asked all signatories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent in 10 years. The objective was short-sighted.

FAQ: What did that objective lack? QSA: That objective only dealt with reducing current and future emission levels. It offered no solutions for the gases that are already in the atmosphere

and will continue to be a problem for the next century or so.

FAQ: Is any organization dealing with the issue of those gases? QSA: Yes and no. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated that it will take a 60 percent reduction to make any progress.

Many believe that this is both logistically and politically too difficult to implement. The panel’s report can be seen at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm

FAQ: Doesn’t the practice of trading emissions credits defeat the overall purpose of setting reduction goals? QSA: It seems to reward those who emit the most pollutants and then make deals for credits that relieve them of any penalty. Unfortunately some of the

smaller, less developed countries are not really part of the pollution problem and need all the economic help they can get.

FAQ: Greenhouse gases seem to be an important part of the Kyoto Protocol. What are they and where do they come from? QSA: The term covers a number of familiar chemical compounds, including steam and water vapor. Other greenhouse gases are methane, carbon

dioxide, and nitrous oxide. CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) also belong on this list, but since they are generated only by industrial processes, they have a unique status as the only greenhouse gas that is entirely man-made.

FAQ: What are CFCs? And where do they come from? QSA: The full name—chlorofluorocarbons—identifies the ingredients of CFCs as chlorine, fluorine, and carbon compounds. For many years, CFCs have

been found in aerosols and air conditioners. Recent legislation has made them less common, but the CFCs released over the years will continue to be a long-term factor in the greenhouse effect.

The entire Kyoto Protocol document can be found on the following website: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html

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An Inconvenient Truth/kyoto-protocol-2002-target-status_d0c3.pdf