economic forecasting- solve using Ratio-to-Moving Average method

Must show all Excel work, answer all parts of the question, and write necessary explanations to earn full points. You have to use Excel to solve this numerical problem (project).

The following table gives monthly data for four years in million tons of consumption of ice cream in a country. Plot the series and comment on the visible seasonality and trend. Estimate the centered moving averages for this monthly series. Plot CMA and comment. Next, estimate the S,I component which only includes seasonal and irregular movements of the series. Then find the seasonal indexes for the twelve months removing the irregular component. Find the de-seasonalized levels for the series. Plot De-seasonalized Y and comment. Then estimate the trend values for the four sample years and the 12 months of the year 2015 using linear regression. Finally, make the forecast for the 12 months of 2015 using the Ratio-to-Moving Average method to capture the Trend and Seasonal patterns, using Excel. Plot the forecasted values for the 60 periods including 12 months of the year 2015. Plot the errors for in-sample periods and calculate RMSE. Comment on the error plot with respect to the existence of pattern or lack of visible pattern.

Month/Year	2011	2012	2013	2014
Jan	840	900	1150	1350
Feb	860	920	1175	1380
Mar	880	950	1205	1415
Apr	950	1090	1280	1525
May	1050	1230	1390	1685
Jun	1150	1360	1510	1845
Jul	1200	1440	1580	1925
Aug	1140	1350	1500	1835
Sep	1100	1310	1450	1770
Oct	1050	1250	1400	1685
Nov	900	1100	1260	1445
Dec	880	1070	1230	1415

(Hint: First, you have to type the data in column form in Excel)