decision anaylsis F

ActivitybriefandrubricfortheFinalAssignment_BBA312DecisionAnalysis.docx

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Final Assignment Written Assignment (case study, essay) Activity brief BBA312 – Decision Analysis Online campus Professor: Louisa Carlse \| [email protected]
Description	The Final Assignment comprises of a decision analysis case study. It describes a certain scenario in practice requiring your decision analysis knowledge.	Format	This activity must meet the following formatting requirements: · Upload one file · Font size 12 · Double-spaced · 2000 - 2500 words · Harvard Referencing System
Goal(s)	The aim of the assessment is to utilize tools, theory and decision analysis methodologies discussed in class. Analyze the scenario described and answer the questions accordingly.	Due date	Date: Monday, 19 July 2021 Time: 14:00
		Weight towards final grade	This activity has a weight of 60% towards the final grade.
Learning outcomes	· To have an in-depth understanding of effective decision-making processes within a business context marked by uncertainty, risk, danger, opportunity and growth · To identify and apply interpretive and analytical methods and tools for effective analysis and decisionmaking. · To apply the framework of effective decision-making within the business context of Risk Management. · To critically appreciate the framework of problem analysis with the context of decision-making	Assessment criteria	· Student demonstrates excellent understanding of key concepts and uses vocabulary in an entirely appropriate manner · Student applies fully relevant knowledge from the topics delivered in class · Student critically assesses in excellent ways, drawing outstanding conclusions from relevant authors · Student communicates their ideas extremely clearly and concisely, respecting word count, grammar and spellcheck

BBA312 DECISION ANALYSIS

FINAL ASSIGNMENT

You are asked to develop and write a report to assess the following case study from El Mejicano

The directors of El Mejicano, a fast food chain of restaurants based in Barcelona, were considering whether to begin the promotion for their new line of menus earlier than originally planned. "I think we should go ahead with the price cuts," Pedro Morales said. "After all, it couldn't hurt! At the very worst, we'll sell these menus cheap for a little longer than we had planned, and on the other side we could beat Panchito to the punch. Panchito is the most important competitor of El Mejicano in Barcelona and they are also a fast food chain specialized in Mexican food. "That's really the question, isn't it?" replied Ana Perales, the marketing manager of the firm. "If Panchito really is planning their own menus promotion, and we start our promotion now, we would beat them to the punch. On the other hand, we might provoke a price war. And you know what a price war with that company means. We spend a lot of money and resources fighting with each other. There's no real winner. We both just end up with less profit."

Manuel Pereira, the finance manager for El Mejicano, piped up, "The consumer wins in a menus price war. They get to buy things cheaper for a while.

We ought to be able to make something out of that."

Antonia Lozano, CEO for El Mejicano, looked at the finance manager thoughtfully. "You've shown good sense in situations like these, Manuel. How do you see it?"

Manuel hesitated. He didn't like being put on the spot like this. "You all know what the sales projections of menus are for the 4-week promotion as planned. Ana Perales tells us to expect sales of 2 million euros. The objective is to gain at least 2 percentage points of market share of the fast food market in Barcelona, but our actual gain could be anywhere from nothing to three points. Profits during the promotion are expected to be down by 10%, but after the promotion ends, our increased market share should result in more sales and more profits."

Pedro Morales, the sales manager, broke in. "That's assuming Panchito doesn't come back with their own promotion in reaction to ours. And you know what our report is from Laura Valencia. She says that he figures Panchito is up to something."

"Yes, Laura did say that. But you have to remember that Laura works for our advertising agent. Her incentive is to sell advertising. And if she thinks she can talk us into spending more money, she will. Furthermore, you know, she isn't always right. Last time she told us that Panchito was going to start a major campaign, he had the dates right, but it was for a different menu line altogether."

Manuel thought for a bit. If he were working at Panchito and saw an unexpected promotion begin, how would he react? Would he want to cut prices to match the competition? Would he try to stick with the original plans? Finally, he said, "Look, we have to believe that Panchito also has some horse sense. They would not want to get involved in a price war if they could avoid it. At the same time, they aren't going to let us walk away with the market. I think that if we move early, there's about a 30 % chance that they will react immediately, and we'll be in a price war before we know it."

"We don't have to react to their reaction, you know," replied Antonia.

"You mean," asked Ana Perales, "we have another meeting like this to decide what to do if they do react?"

"Right." "So," Manuel said, "I guess our immediate options are to start our promotion early or rather start it later. If we start it now, we risk a strong reaction from Panchito. If they do react, then we can decide at that point whether we want to cut our prices further."

Ana Perales spoke up. "But if Panchito reacts strongly and we don't, we would probably end up just spending our money for nothing. We would gain no market share at all. We might even lose some market share. If we were to cut prices further, it might hurt profits, but at least we would be able to preserve what market share gains we had made before Panchito's initial reaction."

At this point, several people began to argue among themselves. Sensing that no resolution was immediately forthcoming, Antonia Lozano adjourned the

meeting, asking everyone to sleep on the problem and to call her with any suggestions or insights they had.

PLEASE ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:

1) Would you add a different alternative to the given decision-making alternatives? From your point of view, what other decision variables would you also take into account in this important decision-making for el Mejicano?

2) Develop and draw a decision tree and an influence diagram for this decision analysis. What roles do the two diagrams play in helping to understand and communicate the framework and structure of this decision-making to the team of directors?

3) Based on the information in the case, what are El Mejicano’s objectives in this decision-making?

4) Describe and assess the different risks associated to each alternative of the decision making and select your risk preference or tendency to choose a risky or less risky option.

Your analysis should be through and include concepts, theories and methodologies studied in class

Rubric: written assignment

Criteria Accomplished (A)	Proficient (B)	Partially proficient (C)	Borderline (D)	Fail (F)
Problem identification	The business issue has been correctly identified, with a competent and comprehensive explanation of key driving forces and considerations. Impact on company operations has been correctly identified. Thorough analysis of the issue is presented.	The student correctly identified the issue(s), taking into account a variety of environmental and contextual drivers. Key case information has been identified and analyzed.	The student correctly identified the case (issues), considering obvious environmental/contextual drivers. There is evidence of analysis, but it lacks depth.	The student correctly identified the issue(s) but analysis was weak. An absence of context – the work is basically descriptive with little analysis.	The student failed to correctly identify the issue(s); analysis was incorrect or too superficial to be of use; information was misinterpreted.
Information gathering	The student showed skill in gathering information and analyzing it for the purposes of filling the information gaps identified. Comprehensive and relevant.	Relevant information gaps were identified and additional relevant information was found to fill them. At least two different types of sources were used. The student demonstrates coherent criteria for selecting information but needs greater depth.	The student correctly identified at least one information gap and found relevant information, but which was limited in scope. Some evidence of sound criteria for selecting information but not consistent throughout. Needs expansion.	An information gap was identified and the student found additional information to fill it. However, this was limited in scope. Weak criteria for the selection of necessary information.	Information was taken at face value with no questioning of its relevance or value. Gaps in the information were not identified or were incorrect.
Conclusions	The student evaluated, analyzed, synthesized all information provided to create a perceptive set of conclusions to support the decisions and solutions.	The student evaluated, analyzed and synthesized to create a conclusion(s) which support decisions and solutions.	The student reached conclusions, but they were limited and provided minimal direction for decision-making and solutions.	The conclusion was reasonable but lacked depth and would not be a basis for suitable strategy development.	The student formed a conclusion, but it was not reasonable. It was either unjustified, incorrect or unrelated to the case in hand.
Solutions	The student used problem solving techniques to make thoughtful, justified decisions about difficult and conflicting issues. A realistic solution was chosen which would provide maximum benefit to the company. Alternative solutions were explored and ruled out.	The student used problem solving techniques to make appropriate decisions about complex issues. Relevant questions were asked and answered. A realistic solution was chosen. Alternatives were identified, explored and ruled out.	The student used problemsolving techniques to make appropriate decisions about simpler issues. The solution has limited benefit but does show understanding of implications of the decision. Alternatives were mentioned but not explored.	The student used problem solving techniques to make decisions about simpler issues but disregarded more complex issues. Implications of the decision were not considered. Alternatives were not offered.	The student formed a conclusion, but it was not reasonable. It was either unjustified, incorrect or unrelated to the case in hand.