annotate the given documents, make notes on the note sheet for the documents and then write a one page paper assigning blame for the Great Recession.
Who Caused the Great Recession?
Introduction: Like most aspects of economics, finding the cause of an economic downturn is not a simple process. Often, years of government policy, societal decisions and lack of foresight align to create a perfect economic storm. We can see this during the 1920s leading up to the Great Depression and now can look closer and closer into what caused the Great Recession starting in the late 2000s. It is not hard to imagine that when the stock market crashes there would be a lot of finger pointing but who is really to blame? Was it Wall Street, the government or consumer spending that led to the economic recession of the 2000s? The simple answer is all three. It is up to you, however, to determine who is the most to blame and to defend your position using the following documents and any other resources you have available to you.
Instructions: For this packet you must:
• Annotate Articles (10 Points) o Read and annotate each document o This means 3-10 words summarizing each paragraph. “WOW” “Really?!?” etc. do not count
• Note Charts (20 Points) o Take notes on the different groups involved in the Great Recession o Cite the documents from which you found the information o This can be bullet pointed but needs to include multiple documents for each group
• Paper (70 Points) o Write a one plus page summary of who you think is most to blame for the Great Recession and why o Needs to use citations when using evidence from the documents o Needs to have a separate introduction and conclusion paragraph
Annotations ________/10 Notes ________/20 Paper ________/70 Total _______/100
Featured Source Source A: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, report on causes and scope of the financial crisis of 2007-‐ 2008, “Conclusions of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission,” January 2011
In this report, we detail the events of the crisis. But a simple summary, as we see it, is useful at the outset. While the vulnerabilities that created the potential for crisis were years in the making, it was the collapse of the housing bubble—fueled by low interest rates, easy and available credit, scant regulation, and toxic mortgages— that was the spark that ignited a string of events, which led to a full-blown crisis in the fall of 2008. Trillions of dollars in risky mortgages had become embedded throughout the financial system, as mortgage-related securities were packaged, repackaged, and sold to investors around the world. When the bubble burst, hundreds of billions of dollars in losses in mortgages and mortgage-related securities shook markets as well as financial institutions that had significant exposures to those mortgages and had borrowed heavily against them. This happened not just in the United States but around the world. The losses were magnified by derivatives such as synthetic securities.
The crisis reached seismic proportions in September 2008 with the failure of Lehman Brothers and the impending collapse of the insurance giant American International Group (AIG). Panic fanned by a lack of transparency of the balance sheets of major financial institutions, coupled with a tangle of interconnections among institutions perceived to be “too big to fail,” caused the credit markets to seize up. Trading ground to a halt. The stock market plummeted. The economy plunged into a deep recession.
Now to our major findings and conclusions, which are based on the facts contained in this report: they are offered with the hope that lessons may be learned to help avoid future catastrophe.
• We conclude this financial crisis was avoidable. The crisis was the result of human action and inaction, not of Mother Nature or computer models gone haywire. The captains of finance and the public stewards of our financial system ignored warnings and failed to question, understand, and manage evolving risks within a system essential to the well-being of the American public. Theirs was a big miss, not a stumble. While the business cycle cannot be repealed, a crisis of this magnitude need not have occurred. To paraphrase Shakespeare, the fault lies not in the stars, but in us.
• Despite the expressed view of many on Wall Street and in Washington that the crisis could not have been foreseen or avoided, there were warning signs. The tragedy was that they were ignored or discounted. There was an explosion in risky subprime lending and securitization, an unsustainable rise in housing prices, widespread reports of egregious and predatory lending practices, dramatic increases in household mortgage debt, and exponential growth in financial firms’ trading activities, unregulated derivatives, and short-term “repo” lending markets, among many other red flags.
The prime example is the Federal Reserve’s pivotal failure to stem the flow of toxic mortgages, which it could have done by setting prudent mortgage-lending standards. The Federal Reserve was the one entity empowered to do so and it did not. The record of our examination is replete with evidence of other failures: financial institutions made, bought, and sold mortgage securities they never examined, did not care to examine, or knew to be defective; firms depended on tens of billions of dollars of borrowing that had to be renewed each and every night, secured by subprime mortgage securities; and major firms and investors blindly relied on credit rating agencies as their arbiters of risk. What else could one expect on a highway where there were neither speed limits nor neatly painted lines? .
• We conclude dramatic failures of corporate governance and risk management at many systemically important financial institutions were a key cause of this crisis. There was a view that instincts for self- preservation inside major financial firms would shield them from fatal risk-taking without the need for a steady regulatory hand, which, the firms argued, would stifle innovation. Too many of these institutions
acted recklessly, taking on too much risk, with too little capital, and with too much dependence on short-term funding. In many respects, this reflected a fundamental change in these institutions, particularly the large investment banks and bank holding companies, which focused their activities increasingly on risky trading activities that produced hefty profits. They took on enormous exposures in acquiring and supporting subprime lenders and creating, packaging, repackaging, and selling trillions of dollars in mortgage-related securities, including synthetic financial products. Like Icarus, they never feared flying ever closer to the sun.
Many of these institutions grew aggressively through poorly executed acquisition and integration strategies that made effective management more challenging. The CEO of Citigroup told the Commission that a $40 billion position in highly rated mortgage securities would “not in any way have excited my attention,” and the co-head of Citigroup’s investment bank said he spent “a small fraction of 1%” of his time on those securities. In this instance, too big to fail meant too big to manage.
Financial institutions and credit rating agencies embraced mathematical models as reliable predictors of risks, replacing judgment in too many instances. Too often, risk management became risk justification.
Our examination revealed stunning instances of governance breakdowns and irresponsibility. You will read, among other things, about AIG senior management’s ignorance of the terms and risks of the company’s $79 billion derivatives exposure to mortgage-related securities; Fannie Mae’s quest for bigger market share, profits, and bonuses, which led it to ramp up its exposure to risky loans and securities as the housing market was peaking; and the costly surprise when Merrill Lynch’s top management realized that the company held $55 billion in “super-senior” and supposedly “super-safe” mortgage-related securities that resulted in billions of dollars in losses.
• We conclude a combination of excessive borrowing, risky investments, and lack of transparency put the financial system on a collision course with crisis. Clearly, this vulnerability was related to failures of corporate governance and regulation, but it is significant enough by itself to warrant our attention here.
The kings of leverage were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two behemoth government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). For example, by the end of 2007, Fannie’s and Freddie’s combined leverage ratio, including loans they owned and guaranteed, stood at 75 to 1.
But financial firms were not alone in the borrowing spree: from 2001 to 2007, national mortgage debt almost doubled, and the amount of mortgage debt per household rose more than 63% from $91,500 to $149,500, even while wages were essentially stagnant. When the housing downturn hit, heavily indebted financial firms and families alike were walloped.
When the housing and mortgage markets cratered, the lack of transparency, the extraordinary debt loads, the short-term loans, and the risky assets all came home to roost. What resulted was panic. We had reaped what we had sown.
• We conclude the government was ill prepared for the crisis, and its inconsistent response added to the uncertainty and panic in the financial markets. As part of our charge, it was appropriate to review government actions taken in response to the developing crisis, not just those policies or actions that preceded it, to determine if any of those responses contributed to or exacerbated the crisis.
As our report shows, key policy makers—the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—who were best positioned to watch over our markets were ill prepared for the events of 2007 and 2008. Time and again, from the spring of 2007 on, policy makers and regulators
were caught off guard as the contagion spread, responding on an ad hoc basis with specific programs to put fingers in the dike. We had allowed the system to race ahead of our ability to protect it.
In addition, the government’s inconsistent handling of major financial institutions during the crisis—the decision to rescue Bear Stearns and then to place Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, followed by its decision not to save Lehman Brothers and then to save AIG—increased uncertainty and panic in the market.
• We conclude there was a systemic breakdown in accountability and ethics. The integrity of our financial markets and the public’s trust in those markets are essential to the economic well-being of our nation. The soundness and the sustained prosperity of the financial system and our economy rely on the notions of fair dealing, responsibility, and transparency. In our economy, we expect businesses and individuals to pursue profits, at the same time that they produce products and services of quality and conduct themselves well. Unfortunately—as has been the case in past speculative booms and busts—we witnessed an erosion of standards of responsibility and ethics that exacerbated the financial crisis. This was not universal, but these breaches stretched from the ground level to the corporate suites. They resulted not only in significant financial consequences but in damage to trust of investors, businesses, and the public in the financial system.
For example, our examination found, according to one measure, that the percentage of borrowers who defaulted on their mortgages within just a matter of months after taking a loan nearly doubled from the summer of 2006 to late 2007. This data indicates they likely took out mortgages that they never had the capacity or intention to pay. You will read about mortgage brokers who were paid “yield spread premiums” by lenders to put borrowers into higher-cost loans so they would get bigger fees, often never disclosed to borrowers. One study places the losses resulting from fraud on mortgage loans made between 2005 and 2007at $112 billion.
Lenders made loans that they knew borrowers could not afford and that could cause massive losses to investors in mortgage securities. As early as September 2004, Countrywide executives recognized that many of the loans they were originating could result in “catastrophic consequences.” Less than a year later, they noted that certain high-risk loans they were making could result not only in foreclosures but also in “financial and reputational catastrophe” for the firm. But they did not stop.
And the report documents that major financial institutions ineffectively sampled loans they were purchasing to package and sell to investors. They knew a significant percentage of the sampled loans did not meet their own underwriting standards or those of the originators. Nonetheless, they sold those securities to investors.
THESE CONCLUSIONS must be viewed in the context of human nature and individual and societal responsibility. First, to pin this crisis on mortal flaws like greed and hubris would be simplistic. It was the failure to account for human weakness that is relevant to this crisis.
Second, we clearly believe the crisis was a result of human mistakes, misjudgments, and misdeeds that resulted in systemic failures for which our nation has paid dearly. As you read this report, you will see that specific firms and individuals acted irresponsibly. Yet a crisis of this magnitude cannot be the work of a few bad actors, and such was not the case here. At the same time, the breadth of this crisis does not mean that “everyone is at fault”; many firms and individuals did not participate in the excesses that spawned disaster.
We do place special responsibility with the public leaders charged with protecting our financial system, those entrusted to run our regulatory agencies, and the chief executives of companies whose failures drove us to crisis. These individuals sought and accepted positions of significant responsibility and obligation. Tone at the top does matter and, in this instance, we were let down. No one said “no.”
Featured Source Source B: Peter Wallison and Arthur Burns, opinion that the financial crisis was caused by deregulation and predatory lending practices, “Conclusions of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Dissenting Statement,” January 2011
What Caused the Financial Crisis?
George Santayana is often quoted for the aphorism that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Looking back on the financial crisis, we can see why the study of history is often so contentious and why revisionist histories are so easy to construct. There are always many factors that could have caused an historical event; the difficult task is to discern which, among a welter of possible causes, were the significant ones—the ones without which history would have been different. Using this standard, I believe that the sine qua non of the financial crisis was U.S. government housing policy, which led to the creation of 27 million subprime and other risky loans—half of all mortgages in the United States—which were ready to default as soon as the massive 1997-2007 housing bubble began to deflate. If the U.S. government had not chosen this policy path—fostering the growth of a bubble of unprecedented size and an equally unprecedented number of weak and high-risk residential mortgages—the great financial crisis of 2008 would never have occurred.
Initiated by Congress in 1992 and pressed by HUD in both the Clinton and George W. Bush Administrations, the U.S. government’s housing policy sought to increase home ownership in the United States through an intensive effort to reduce mortgage underwriting standards. In pursuit of this policy, HUD used (i) the affordable housing requirements imposed by Congress in 1992 on the government- sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, (ii) its control over the policies of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and (iii) a “Best Practices Initiative” for subprime lenders and mortgage banks, to encourage greater subprime and other high risk lending. HUD’s key role in the growth of subprime and other high risk mortgage lending is covered in detail in Part III.
Ultimately, all these entities, as well as insured banks covered by the CRA, were compelled to compete for mortgage borrowers who were at or below the median income in the areas in which they lived. This competition caused underwriting standards to decline, increased the numbers of weak and high risk loans far beyond what the market would produce without government influence, and contributed importantly to the growth of the 1997-2007 housing bubble.
When the bubble began to deflate in mid-2007, the low quality and high risk loans engendered by government policies failed in unprecedented numbers. The effect of these defaults was exacerbated by the fact that few if any investors—including housing market analysts—understood at the time that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been acquiring large numbers of subprime and other high risk loans in order to meet HUD’s affordable housing goals.
In this environment, the government’s rescue of Bear Stearns in March of 2008 temporarily calmed investor fears but created a significant moral hazard; investors and other market participants reasonably believed after the rescue of Bear that all large financial institutions would also be rescued if they encountered financial difficulties. However, when Lehman Brothers—an investment bank even larger than Bear—was allowed to fail, market participants were shocked; suddenly, they were forced to consider the financial health of their counterparties, many of which appeared weakened by losses and the capital writedowns required by mark-to- market accounting. This caused a halt to lending and a hoarding of cash—a virtually unprecedented period of market paralysis and panic that we know as the financial crisis of 2008.
Featured Source Source C: Andrew Sorkin, prologue about the financial crisis from the viewpoint of the JP Morgan CEO, Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System—And Themselves, 2009
Standing in the kitchen of his Park Avenue apartment, Jamie Dimon poured himself a cup of coffee, hoping it might ease his headache. He was recovering from a slight hangover, but his head really hurt for a different reason: He knew too much.
It was just past 7:00 a.m. on the morning of Saturday, September 13, 2008. Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, the nation's third largest bank, had spent part of the prior evening at an emergency, all-hands- on-deck meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with a dozen of his rival Wall Street CEOs. Their assignment was to come up with a plan to save Lehman Brothers, the nation's fourth-largest investment bank— or risk the collateral damage that might ensue in the markets.
Dimon knew that Lehman Brothers might not make it through the weekend. JP Morgan had examined its books earlier that week as a potential lender and had been unimpressed. He also had decided to request some extra collateral from the firm out of fear it might fall. In the next twenty four hours, Dimon knew, Lehman would either be rescued or ruined.
Knowing what he did, however, Dimon was concerned about more than just Lehman Brothers. He was aware that Merrill Lynch, another icon of Wall Street, was in trouble, too, and he had just asked his staff to make sure JP Morgan had enough collateral from that firm as well. And he was also acutely aware of new dangers developing at the global insurance giant American International Group (AIG) that so far had gone relatively unnoticed by the public—it was his firm's client, and they were scrambling to raise additional capital to save it. By his estimation AIG had only about a week to find a solution, or it, too, could falter.
Dimon began contemplating a worst-case scenario, and at 7:30 a.m. he went into his home library and dialed into a conference call with two dozen members of his management team. "You are about to experience the most unbelievable week in America ever, and we have to prepare for the absolutely worst case," Dimon told his staff. "We have to protect the firm. This is about our survival."
Like most people on Wall Street—including Richard S. Fuld Jr., Lehman's CEO, who enjoyed one of the longest reigns of any of its leaders—many of those listening to the call assumed that the government would intervene and prevent its failure. Dimon hastened to disabuse them of the notion.
"That's wishful thinking. There is no way, in my opinion, that Washington is going to bail out an investment bank. Nor should they," he said. "I want you all to know that this is a matter of life and death. I'm serious." Then he dropped his bombshell. It was his ultimate doomsday scenario.
"Here's the drill," he continued. "We need to prepare right now for Lehman Brothers filing." Then he paused. "And for Merrill Lynch filing." He paused again. "And for AIG filing." Another pause. "And for Morgan Stanley filing." And after a final, even longer pause he added: "And potentially for Goldman Sachs filing." There was a collective gasp on the phone.
As Dimon had presciently warned in his conference call, the following days would bring a near collapse of the financial system, forcing a government rescue effort with no precedent in modern history. In a period of less than eighteen months, Wall Street had gone from celebrating its most profitable age to finding itself on the brink of an epochal devastation.
Trillions of dollars in wealth had vanished, and the financial landscape was entirely reconfigured. The calamity would definitively shatter some of the most cherished principles of capitalism. The idea that financial wizards had conjured up a new era of low-risk profits, and that American-style financial engineering was the global gold standard, was officially dead.
Featured Source Source D: Center for Responsible Lending, video overview of and article about the root causes of the financial crisis of 2007-‐2008, State of Lending: Mortgages, December 12, 2012
The increased complexity in the mortgage market created a chasm between those who originated loans and those who bore the risk of defaults. Under a “traditional” lending model—where lenders both originated and held their mortgages—lenders had a vested interest in ensuring that borrowers could afford to repay their loans. In the more recent “originate-to-securitize” system, the compensation of brokers, lenders, and securitizers was based on transaction volume, not loan performance. Consequently, many lenders and brokers aggressively marketed and originated loans without evaluating the borrowers’ ability to repay them.
This evolution led to a new breed of dangerous mortgages—such as loans with introductory “teaser” rates that reset after a few years to much higher rates; loans that did not require income verification; and loans with prepayment penalties that locked borrowers into high rates or risky terms. These loans were often made with scant underwriting and marketed without regard for whether they were suitable for the borrowers. Accompanying this expansion of risky loan terms was a deterioration of lending standards. These developments are discussed in more detail in the following Abuses in Subprime and Alt-A Lending section.
The severe decline in loan quality was facilitated by two factors. First, the growth in private-label securitization by Wall Street meant that mortgage originators did not need to conform to the lending standards of the GSEs in order to sell their loans. In fact, Wall Street rewarded loan originators for riskier loan products by paying a higher premium for non-conforming loans. At the same time, subprime lenders targeted many of the same borrowers who had been traditionally served by the FHA and VA programs, saddling these borrowers with much riskier debt than they would have received had they gone through the government programs. Worse, evidence suggests that many subprime borrowers could have qualified for conforming or lower-priced loans.14 Meanwhile, the credit agencies charged with rating the quality of mortgage-backed investments were assigning high ratings to securities backed by these dangerous and unsustainable loans. This gave false assurance to investors that these products were safe.
Featured Source Source E: Tyler Cowen, article examining fraudulent borrowing practices on the part of consumers leading up to the financial crisis of 2007-‐2008, “So We Thought. But Then Again . . .” (excerpt), New York Times, January 13, 2008 ”
…IT’S NOT JUST THE LENDERS There has been plenty of talk about “predatory lending,” but “predatory borrowing” may have been the bigger problem. As much as 70 percent of recent early payment defaults had fraudulent misrepresentations on their original loan applications, according to one recent study. The research was done by BasePoint Analytics, which helps banks and lenders identify fraudulent transactions; the study looked at more than three million loans from 1997 to 2006, with a majority from 2005 to 2006. Applications with misrepresentations were also five times as likely to go into default.
Many of the frauds were simple rather than ingenious. In some cases, borrowers who were asked to state their incomes just lied, sometimes reporting five times actual income; other borrowers falsified income documents by using computers. Too often, mortgage originators and middlemen looked the other way rather than slowing down the process or insisting on adequate documentation of income and assets. As long as housing prices kept rising, it didn’t seem to matter.
In other words, many of the people now losing their homes committed fraud. And when a mortgage goes into default in its first year, the chance is high that there was fraud in the initial application, especially because unemployment in general has been low during the last two years.
© 2008 The New York Times. All rights reserved. Used by permission and protected by the Copyright Laws of the United States. The printing, copying, redistribution, or retransmission of this Content without repress written permission is prohibited. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/13/business/13view.html?_r=0.
Featured Source Source F: Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, study examining total consumer debt over time, “The Financial Crisis at the Kitchen Table: Trends in Household Debt and Credit” (excerpt), 2013
Consumer Debt during the Pre-‐crisis Period
From first-‐quarter 1999 (when our data begin) through third-‐quarter 2008, we observe substantial increases in consumer indebtedness. On March 31, 1999, consumers owed about $4.6 trillion to creditors. During the subsequent nine years, consumer indebtedness rose more than 170 percent, reaching $12.7 trillion at the end of third-‐quarter 2008.
The driving force behind these changes was debt secured by residential real estate, which accounts for the great majority—more than 70 percent in all periods—of household liabilities. Amounts owed on installment mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) tripled over this period—from $3.3 trillion to $10 trillion—accounting for $6.7 trillion of the total $8 trillion increase in consumer liabilities. Nonetheless, other forms of consumer debt also rose sharply. Many factors were responsible for these increases, including rising populations, incomes, stock and house prices, falling interest rates, and the democratization of credit. Indeed, while consumer indebtedness—the liabilities side of the household balance sheet—was rising sharply, the Flow of Funds Accounts indicate that assets owned by the household sector were growing as well, leaving consumers’ net wealth (the difference between the value of assets owned and liabilities owed) to grow steadily over the period.
Delinquency rates remained stable from 1999 through 2006 in the Consumer Credit Panel, with roughly 4 percent of total outstanding debt thirty or more days past due (delinquent) and 2 percent of total debt ninety or more days past due (severely delinquent). However, delinquency rose quickly during 2007, reaching 6.7 percent by the end of the year and 8.5 percent by the peak of consumer debt in third-‐quarter 2008. Severe delinquency climbed to 3.6 percent by the end of 2007 and 5.1 percent by third-‐quarter 2008. Hence, the data reveal both a pre-‐crisis period of credit expansion associated with very steady consumer debt performance and emerging evidence of repayment difficulties as early as 2007.
Consumer Debt since the Financial Crisis
Since the end of third-‐quarter 2008, U.S. consumers have reduced their indebtedness by $1.4 trillion, resulting in a decrease in the aggregate consumer debt balance from $12.7 trillion at its peak in third-‐quarter 2008 to $11.3 trillion at the end of third-‐quarter 2012. Chart 1 shows the total debt observed on credit reports for the entire life of the Panel, in the aggregate and broken down by loan type. Total household debt has decreased roughly 11 percent since its peak. Mortgage-‐related debt now accounts for 76 percent of total debt, with the remainder comprising credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and other consumer debt….
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Assigning Blame Instructions: As you read each document, complete the chart below with information on each group. This will help guide you when you go to write your paper. The notes do not have to be in complete sentences but you should cite where you are getting the information from (just the letter of the document in parenthesis is fine).
Group Evidence
Wall Street & Bankers
Government
U.S. Public
Paper: When you have completed the documents and the chart, write a one page paper on who you think is most to blame for the Great Recession and why? Be sure to include and cite information from the documents in your response.