Project 3

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America’s GDP has grown faster than that of Britain

Mean 8542868.367 1323673
median 7287236 1117514
Sample variance 3.42113E+13 7.6E+11
standard deviation 5849040.887 871904.5
coefficient of variation 0.684669438 0.658701
range 19506920 2858932
percentiles
25th 3343789 559751.1
50th 7287236 1117514
75th 13814609 2115463
Quintiles
1st 2765317.8 463631.7
2nd 5705892.8 922990.4
3rd 9517093.8 1422664
4th 14556254 2216190
5th 20580223 3056737
Skewness 0.44946883 0.439666

Source: https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm

Trend of GDP for USA and GBR

USA GDP 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1073303 1164850 1279110 1425376 1545243 1684904 1873412 2081826 2351599 2627334 2857307 3207042 3343789 3634038 4037613 4338979 4579631 4855215 5236438 5641580 5963144 6158129 6520327 6858559 7287236 7639749 8073122 8577552 9062817 9630663 10252347 10581822 10936418 11458246 12213730 13036637 13814609 14451860 14712845 14448932 14992052 15542582 16197007 16784851 17527258 18224780 18715040 19519424 20580223 GBR GDP 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 197804.20580000003 215072.81529999999 234022.17580000003 262912.85689999996 279512.13400000002 300885.19510000001 326681.88 355456.84519999992 396445.40410000004 445400.30570000003 475785.96039999998 516790.32330000005 559751.08759999985 606233.11949999991 642401.43460000004 690520.16570000001 726434.77299999993 783897.62379999983 858193.92890000017 914752.97429999989 955939.99069999997 977529.59129999997 1003545.6363 1053282.1115000001 1117514.1057 1190685.1009000002 1271055.7233 1343618.6774000002 1382460.7914 1432714.2154999999 1555186.1897000002 1640973.6769000003 1725817.4194 1805030.5834000001 1917490.3381999999 1973200.2228000001 2115462.75 25999998 2183078.946 2265855.8605999998 2179887.2376999999 2280975.3509999993 2350795.5755999996 2440476.6486999998 2563271.0400999999 2665876.3073999998 2768619.3898999998 2856266.9369999995 2997685.2601999999 3056736.5105999997

Time

GDP ($/Capita)

More Americans are getting Wealthier

Statistic Value
Mean 4.1
median 3.9
Sample variance 4.796006
standard deviation 2.189979
coefficient of variation 0.534866
range 7.6
percentiles
25th 1.925
50th 3.9
75th 5.875
Quintiles
1st 1.7
2nd 3.12
3rd 5.46
4th 5.9
5th 8.6
Skewness 0.242234

Source: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-266.html

Percentage of wealthy Americans 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 1.1000000000000001 1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9000000000000001 2 1.7 1.7 2 2.1 2.2999999999999998 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.0999999999999996 4.0999999999999996 4.3 4.9000000000000004 5.3 6 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 6.5 7 7.7 8.6 8.1 8.5

Percentage

Corporate profit after tax has been increasing

Mean 821.1
median 527.4
Sample variance 381179.5
standard deviation 617.3973
coefficient of variation 0.751936
range 1,682.8
percentiles
25th 273.6085
50th 527.354
75th 1386.795
Quintiles
1st 245.6893
2nd 493.8963
3rd 730.6848
4th 1546.884
5th 1857.164
Skewness 0.583939

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP#0

Trend in Corporate Tax

CP 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 207.27375000000001 206.30975000000001 181.0335 197.46825000000001 216.76325 208.03925000000001 174.32300000000001 218.08824999999999 264.08999999999997 264.98174999999998 282.23525000000001 311.50425000000001 330.64675 350.89774999999997 429.0335 490.80225000000002 527.35400000000004 572.12450000000 001 506.27249999999998 538.50075000000004 513.16425000000004 518.93899999999996 627.91075000000001 756.37824999999998 979.16875000000005 1285.3697500000001 1413.7304999999999 1359.8585 1123.1692499999999 1263.3254999999999 1561.4829999999999 1537.1514999999999 1821.23525 1788.739 1857.1637499999999 1740.3485000000001 1739.838 1813.55225 1843.713

Unemployment rate is slowly decreasing

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.287047
R Square 0.082396
Adjusted R Square 0.057596
Standard Error 1.595481
Observations 39
ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 8.457360324 8.45736 3.322397 0.076431
Residual 37 94.1857166 2.54556
Total 38 102.6430769      
  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 88.98089 45.37826259 1.96087 0.057454 -2.9642 180.926 -2.9642 180.926
X Variable 1 -0.04138 0.022700122 -1.82274 0.076431 -0.08737 0.004618 -0.08737 0.004618

Source: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

4

Unemployment Rate (%)

unemployment rate (%) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 19 90 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7.2 7.6 9.6999999999999993 9.6 7.5 7.2 7 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9000000000000004 4.5 4.2 4 4.7 5.8 6 5.5 5.0999999999999996 4.5999999999999996 4.5999999999999996 5.8 9.3000000000000007 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9000000000000004 4.4000000000000004 3.9

Unemployment rate (%)

Interpretation

R² = 0.082

The linear regression explains only 8.25 of the data

Equation of regression: y = -0.041x + 88.98

Every year, unemployment decreases by 0.041

The vertical intercept is insignificant since it is illogical to determine unemployment rate at zero years

Government spending varies across agencies

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99247168
R Square 0.98500003
Adjusted R Square 0.98218753
Standard Error 1.52171644
Observations 39
ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 4865.900131 810.9834 350.2229 9.768E-28
Residual 32 74.09986911 2.315621
Total 38 4940      
  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1980.02443 1.858087699 1065.625 2.21E-74 1976.2396 1983.809 1976.239628 1983.80923
Department of Agriculture 0.0020469 0.001325885 1.543802 0.132469 -0.000654 0.004748 -0.000653835 0.004747644
Department of Commerce 1.1311E-05 5.10816E-06 2.214223 0.034058 9.056E-07 2.17E-05 9.05623E-07 2.17156E-05
Department of Defense--Military Programs -6.526E-06 1.65591E-05 -0.39408 0.696133 -4.03E-05 2.72E-05 -4.02554E-05 2.72041E-05
Department of Education 0.00248612 0.001418165 1.753057 0.089169 -0.000403 0.005375 -0.000402584 0.005374832
Department of Energy -0.0002281 0.000175849 -1.29737 0.203778 -0.000586 0.00013 -0.000586335 0.000130051
Department of Health and Human Services 0.00017086 0.000496862 0.343886 0.733182 -0.000841 0.001183 -0.00084121 0.001182938

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/

Interpretation of Results

R Square=0.98500003

The relationship explains 98% of the data

All coefficients are too small. There is no relationship between any variables

All coefficients were less than 0.05, which is the level of significance and hence insignificant