Global Health problem
Chapter Two
Health Determinants, Measurements, and Trends
Overview
What are the determinants of health?
What are the most important health indicators and key terms related to measuring health status and the burden of disease?
What are the leading causes of death and the burden of disease in low-, middle-, and high-income countries?
What are the demographic and epidemiological transitions?
The Importance of Measuring Health Status
In order to address global health issues, we must understand:
The factors that influence health status most
The indicators used to measure health status
The key trends in health status that have occurred historically
Determinants of Health
The interconnected factors that determine an individual’s health status
Determinants include personal and inborn features, socioeconomic status, culture, environment, educational attainment, health behaviors, childhood development, access to care, and government policy
Increasing attention is being paid to the social determinants of health
Key Health Indicators
Health status indicators are useful for:
Finding which diseases people suffer from
Determining the extent to which the disease causes death or disability
Carrying out disease surveillance
To perform these functions, it is important to use a consistent set of indicators in order to make comparisons
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Key Health Indicators
Terms
Morbidity—sickness or any departure, subjective or objective, from a psychological or physiological state of well-being
Mortality—death
Disability—temporary or long-term reduction in a person’s capacity to function
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Key Health Indicators
Terms
Prevalence—number of people suffering from a certain health condition over a specified period
Incidence—the rate at which new cases of a disease occur in a population
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Key Health Indicators
Communicable diseases—illnesses caused by a particular infectious agent that spreads directly or indirectly from people to people, animals to people, or people to animals; also called infectious diseases
Noncommunicable diseases—illnesses not spread by an infectious agent
Injuries—include road traffic injuries, falls, self-inflicted injuries, and violence, among other things
Vital Registration
Vital registration systems record births, deaths, and causes of death
An accurate system is key to having quality data on a population
Many low- and middle-income countries lack a vital registration system
Often there are cultural barriers to timely vital registration
Vital Registration
Measuring the Burden of Disease
Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE)
Summarizes expected number of years to be lived in what might be termed the equivalent of good health
A health-expectancy measure
To calculate HALE: the years of ill health are weighted according to severity and subtracted from overall life expectancy
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Measuring the Burden of Disease
Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY)
The sum of years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs are also defined as years of healthy life lost
A health-gap measure
Indicates losses due to illness, disability and premature death in a population
Burden of Disease Data
Important to gain an understanding of:
Leading causes of illness, disability, and death in the world
Variations in these causes by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status
Changes over time and how these causes might change in the future
Burden of Disease Data
Overview of Patterns and Trends in the Burden of Disease
People in much of the world are living longer than before and dying at lower rates than earlier
As people live longer, there is an increase in the years people live with disability
The burden of disease is predominantly noncommunicable in all World Bank regions, except sub-Saharan Africa
Burden of Disease Data
Overview of Patterns and Trends in the Burden of Disease
Over the last few decades, the burden of disease has shifted increasingly toward noncommunicable diseases in all World Bank regions
This shift has been fueled, among other things, by a reduction in communicable diseases and the aging of populations
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Causes of Death by Region
Higher income countries tend to have a greater burden of noncommunicable diseases
The lowest income countries have a greater burden of communicable diseases
Africa and South Asia are set apart by their large burdens of communicable disease
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Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
Burden of Disease Data
The Burden of Deaths and Disease Within Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Rural people will be less healthy
Disadvantaged ethnic minorities will be less healthy
Females will suffer from their weak social positions
Poor people will be less healthy
Uneducated people will be less healthy
Risk Factors
Risk factor—an aspect or personal behavior or lifestyle, an environmental exposure, or an inborn or inherited characteristic, that, on the basis of epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with health-related conditions considered important to prevent
Risk Factors
Risk Factors
Demography and Health
Population Growth
Current world population is 7.2 billion and growing
Majority of population growth will occur in low- and middle-income countries
This growth will put substantial pressure on the environment and infrastructure
Demography and Health
Demography and Health
Population Aging
Population of the world is aging
Elderly support ratio—ratio between the number of people that are 15–64 years of age, compared with the number that are 65 years of age or older
Affects burden of disease because people will be living longer with morbidities and disabilities
Affects healthcare financing because of costs of caring for older people
Demography and Health
Demography and Health
Urbanization
In the last decade, most of the world’s population has lived their entire life in urban areas
People are continuing to move from rural to urban areas, especially in low- and middle-income countries
There is enormous population pressure on urban infrastructure, such as water and sanitation
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Demography and Health
The Demographic Divide
Highest income countries: low fertility, often declining populations, aging populations
Lowest income countries: relatively high fertility, growing populations
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Demography and Health
The Demographic Transition
Shift from pattern of high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality
Mortality declines with better hygiene and nutrition
Population grows with gap between births and deaths
Fertility declines
Population growth slows and older share of population increases as births and deaths equalize
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Demography and Health
Demography and Health
The Epidemiologic Transition
Shift from burden of disease dominated by communicable disease to burden of disease dominated by noncommunicable disease
Low-income countries are going through it now
First, and historically: high and fluctuating mortality, related to very poor health conditions, epidemics, and famine
Demography and Health
The Epidemiologic Transition
Then, progressive declines in mortality as epidemics become less frequent
Finally, further declines in mortality, increases in life expectancy, and the predominance of noncommunicable diseases
The pace of this transition depends on factors related to the determinants of health
Demography and Health
Progress in Health Status
Improvements in raising life expectancy and improving health not uniform across countries
Life expectancy in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other regions
Life expectancy in Europe and Central Asia changed little from 1990-2011, related to break-up of Soviet Union
Life expectancy in East Asia increased dramatically, partly due to rapid economic growth
Progress in Health Status
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Economic Development
Economies of low-income countries need to grow in order to invest in health
Impact of economic development will depend on how equitable growth is across population groups and investments in areas that improve health such as water, sanitation, and education
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Scientific and Technological Change
Development of vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics
Country’s ability to adopt these changes will determine their effect on health
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Climate Change
Impact not entirely clear
Possible migration from places that become uninhabitable
Adverse weather
Possible change in populations of disease vectors
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Political Stability
Necessary for long-term gains in health
Instability causes illness, disability, and death, as well as breakdown of infrastructure and services that leads to further health issues
Instability has impeded achieving the Millennium Development Goals
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Disease
Occurrence and impact difficult to predict
Pandemic flu could have a major impact in the future
Drug resistance outpacing our ability to produce safe and effective drugs could also have a substantial impact on the burden of disease
The Burden of Disease: Looking Forward
Projecting the Burden of Disease
Difficult to predict but can use models to project
Substantial changes projected to 2030
Low- and lower-middle-income countries will shift away from communicable disease
Causes associated with aging will increase in importance
Mental health issues will increase in importance for all income groups
The Development Challenge of Improving Health
Health usually increases as national income increases
Some countries have achieved higher life expectancies than their incomes would predict
This is possible with investments in the “best buys” such as nutrition, education, good hygiene, and low-cost services that have a high impact such as vaccination programs and TB control
Further Exploration
Further Exploration
IHME GBD 2010 Compare
http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
Allows you to look at causes of deaths and DALYs across regions as a proportion of total deaths and DALYs
Further Exploration
Further Exploration
IHME. GBD 2010 Heatmap
http://vizhub.healthdata.org/irank/heat.php
Allows you to look at the ranking of leading causes of deaths and DALYs across regions and also the absolute number of deaths and DALYs associated with these causes