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3 M I N U T E R E A D

7 Ways To Lie With Statistics And Get Away With It

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What does excess email usage have to do with low IQ

scores? Nothing at all, but that doesn’t mean

someone didn’t to make a point.  

I don’t know about you, but I am tired of the

incorrect, misleading, or just plain bogus statistics

used to sell me a product, elicit support for a

candidate, or get me to ‘Like’ some new trend. I’m

mad as hell and I’m not going to take it

anymore...and neither should you.

Misleading with statistics is called ‘statisticulation’

and it is nothing new. In 1954, former Better Homes

and Gardens editor Darrell Huff wrote a small book

called, , which is the best-

selling statistics book of the last 60 years, according

, a professor of statistics and

operations and information management at

Wharton.

What was true in 1954 is just as true today. According

to Huff, here are seven common tactics used to knead

statistical data into "dough."

create a connection

How To Lie with Statistics

J. Michael Steele

• Biased sampling:   This involves polling a non­representative group. For example, a

survey that finds "41% of retail bank customers

would use mobile banking if it were available,"

becomes meaningless when you find out the

survey only polled people on their mobile

devices.

• Small sample sizes:   Picking an adequate sample size is part science and part

art, but sweeping statements, like "14% of

companies plan to deploy cloud­based email

this year" becomes suspect when the sample

size is 24 companies. Another example of this kind of ‘statistics gone wild’ phenomenon was a " " conducted by HP that found excessive email usage reduces a person’s IQ by 10 points.  

study

• Poorly­chosen averages:   This often involves averaging values across non­uniform populations. For example, I recently saw an article that identified a neighborhood as one of the wealthiest in the city. The article went on to state that neighborhood residents had an average annual income of around $100,000. What the article failed to point out is that the neighborhood is in the process of gentrification; one part of the neighborhood is very wealthy, and the other part’s income levels are below the national average. Giving a single average value for two populations is incorrect and misleading. (The median value for income would be a better indication of the neighborhood income.) Another classic example of this is the story about the man who drowned in a pool of water whose average depth was 1 inch.

• Results falling within the standard error:  No sampling or measuring technique is perfect; all inherently incorporate a degree of error. This means that a survey can only be as accurate as its standard error. Without getting technical, suffice it to say that the headline, "E­books Preferred Over Paper By Men More Than By Women" sounds remarkable until you find out that of the actual polling results found that 52% of men preferred

T E C H N O L O G Y L E A D E R S H I P M A G A Z I N E M O S T I N N O V A T I V E C O M P A N I E S M O S T C R E A T I V E P E O P L E V I D E O N E W SM E N U S U B S C R I B E

e­books versus 49% for women, and the error

of the survey was +/­5%.

• Using graphs to create an impression:  Both of the charts below contain exactly the same information, but which one

more accurately shows the increase in venture

capital investment in mobile technologies

between the years 2006­2007? The only

difference between the graphs is the

scale. Graphing data creatively provides a lot

of room for creating false impressions.   The

same goes for pictograms and infographics.

• "The semi­attached figure": This means stating one thing as a proof for something else.

For example, if an ad says "15% of CEOs drive

a Buick; more than any other brand"— what

does that prove? The implication is that CEOs

are some sort of authorities on cars. This is a

common tactic. Remember the old Certs

commercials, where the narrator says, "Certs.

Now with Retsyn!" Did anyone even know

what Retsyn is or why should we care?  

• "Post­hoc fallacy":   This is incorrectly asserting that there is a direct correlation

between two findings. This is particularly

nefarious but it is often more difficult to catch

than the other tactics. For example, if a study

finds that vegetarians have a higher average

T E C H N O L O G Y L E A D E R S H I P M A G A Z I N E M O S T I N N O V A T I V E C O M P A N I E S M O S T C R E A T I V E P E O P L E V I D E O N E W SM E N U S U B S C R I B E

Huff presents an entire chapter of how to identify

spotty statistics, which I will revisit those in a future

post. In the meantime, the best advice, as always, is

to be skeptical. Caveat emptor!

I am collecting stories about bogus, misleading, or

inaccurate marketing statistics; please send me

stories to or tweet me

.

Author David Lavenda is a high tech marketing and

product strategy executive who also does academic

research on the effects of information overload on

organizations. He is an international scholar for the

Society for the History of Technology.

[Image: Flickr user  ]

income than meat­eaters, it would be absurd to

conclude that you can raise your income by

abstaining from meat. But that is exactly what

some ‘researchers’ do.

[email protected]

@dlavenda

MervC

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4 M I N U T E R E A D W O R K S M A R T

Exactly What To Do To

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Exactly What To Do To Convince Your Boss To Let You Work From Home On Fridays

[Photo: clownbusiness/iStock; App Photo: Vincent van Gogh's "Bedroom in Arles"]

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Trust and results are essential when you are making a play to work from home.

If you think working from home on Fridays sounds

good, you’re not alone. "Flexible work hours" is the

most desired benefit among workers, with more than

half of adult U.S. workers picking it as their top perk,

according to the technology staffing firm .

While 80% of companies offer flexible hours, just

44% advertise this to employees, according to a

by WorldatWork, the nonprofit human resources

association. That means working from home on

Fridays might be as simple as asking.

"When a company values an employee, managers are

usually willing to have a conversation about working

from home, and often are willing to work out some

type of an agreement when feasible," says MaryAnne

Hyland, professor of human resource management at

the at

Adelphi University.

The real issue is about trust, says Anna Conrad,

founder of , a Denver-

based leadership development and consulting firm.

"You are asking your manager to trust not only your

willingness to stay focused and work, but your ability

to work autonomously with little or no guidance," she

says.

PREPARATION IS KEY

Before you ask, Conrad suggests knowing how you

will use your time and how you will provide evidence

of the work you accomplished. "This is especially

critical during the first month when trust is being

established," she says. "Assure your manager you will

be readily available when needed, just as if he wanted

to stop by your cubicle."

Modis

study

Robert B. Willumstad School of Business

Impact Leadership Solutions

You also have to prove that you can work autonomously. Consider your last performance review, suggests Conrad. "Was any of the feedback related to your inability to get things done with little or no guidance? Was any of it related to your inability to meet deadlines?" she asks. "If your answer to either of these is ‘yes,’ explain to your manager things you have done to prove this is no longer an issue."

You also need to make sure you have the required information technology tools and skills, says

, author of "High-speed internet and excellent telephone service are required at your home office," she says. "Working from Starbucks every Friday is not a sufficient arrangement. And make sure you have an Ethernet cable so you can hardwire into your router if your computer has a Wi-Fi issue," she cautions. "It happens. Be prepared."

Finally, think about your typical Friday schedule and identify how telecommuting might enhance it, says Jones. "For example, you have reports to complete, and working from home allows you to concentrate with fewer interruptions," she says. "Or you have a day full of conference calls, and you can focus without your cubicle neighbor's noise and distractions."

HOW AND WHEN TO ASK Timing is everything. "You can’t just stand up on your desk one Friday afternoon and declare, ‘From now on, I will work from home!’ says Ramit Sethi, author of . "Everyone will think you’re a weirdo, and building security will usher you out of the office," says Sethi.

Wilma Jones Is It Monday Already?!

I Will Teach You To Be Rich

The best time to ask is immediately after you’ve

received a glowing performance review or had a

business success, says Sethi, and approach the topic

using the "ARMS" technique:

Sethi suggests starting the conversation like this: "I’d

love to provide even more value to the company in

the future. But lately, I’ve been getting burnt out

from the commute. It would make a world of

difference if I could work from home a day or two

each week."

If your manager says ‘no,’ adding that it isn’t a perk

the company offers, agree with what was said, and

then reframe your request by turning it into an

opportunity. For example: "I understand that Acme

Co. hasn’t done it in the past. But this could be a

great opportunity for the company. If it works out, we

can find candidates in other states for X role that

we’ve had a hard time filling. And given my track

record here, testing it out with me on a small scale is

low risk. If it doesn’t work out, we can always go back

to the old way."

After you’ve made your case, shut up and wait, says

Sethi. "The important thing to remember is that

you’re proving the concept for now. Once your boss

agrees to this small request, and it works out well,

they’re more likely to agree to you working from

home regularly," he says.

STRENGTHEN YOUR CASE

• Agree

• Reframe

• Make your case

• Shut up

STRENGTHEN YOUR CASE You can improve your odds of getting a 'yes' if you share research that shows employees who have flexible work arrangements are actually more productive than those who don't, adds Katina Sawyer, assistant professor of psychology and graduate programs in human resource development at . "This may be because employees feel valued and trusted, or it may be because it allows employees to better multitask," she says.

Finally, do your homework to find out if there are other employees in your department that currently have approval to telework, says Jones. "If their situation is working well, accentuate how your arrangement would be similar or even better," she says. "If it's not going very well, contrast how you would handle your telework arrangement to ensure the same concerns will not exist with you."

Villanova University

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