Ecosystem
Errolkim
6_AtmandClimate_ESS205H1.pdf
ESS 205H1 Confronting Global Change Atmosphere and Climate
2https://www.thoughtco.com/cartoons-and-memes-about-climate-change-2734107
Today’s Agenda – Atmosphere & Climate Change
Outline • Planetary Boundary for Climate
Change • Presentation by Ontario’s
Commissioner of the Environment • Situation • Solutions
Take Home Messages • Need to connect Climate Change to
real effects on society • Connect to social stability • Connect to food
• Need action through solutions!
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Rockström et al. 2009 Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol & Society 14: 32.
In the Anthropocene, we are reaching global limits Planetary Boundaries Super-wicked problem (weeks 2 & 4)
2/14/2019 4
A timeline of the Earth’s average temperature
Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next? 2018 Greenhouse Gas Progress Report
#ONClimateAction
Dianne Saxe Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
Kingston Climate Change Symposium January 17, 2019
Overview
• The ECO and the EBR
• Climate changes everything
• Opportunities for action
Who is the Environmental Commissioner?
• Impartial, independent officer of Ontario legislature • Guardian of the Environmental Bill of Rights • Watchdog on:
• Greenhouse gas emissions • Energy conservation • Environmental protection
• It’s my job to report the facts without fear or favour
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eco.on.ca
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Annual Reports
ENERGY CONSERVATIONENVIRONMENT CLIMATE
Climate changes everything
Climate change is here. It affects us now.
Much worse is ahead. We’re determining the future now.
We must
Mitigate
• reduce emissions of pollutants (GHGs) that cause climate change
Adapt
• cope with the impacts that have already occurred and will occur as a result of climate change
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Highest Air CO2 in (Human) History
• Millions of years 180 - 280 • 1750 278 • 1860 280 • 1988 350 • 2018 410 ppm
• Now permanently above 400 ppm • Trapping extra heat
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory (full record), 2016.
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Highest temperatures in human civilization
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Global Temperature Variation
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/101/video-global-temperature-variation/
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20th Century “normal” is gone
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Change – Global Temperature
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93% of the extra heat is in oceans, lakes
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chapter 3: Observations: Oceans in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2013.
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Ontario warming faster than global average
• 1.5oC warmer since 1948
• 2.5oC to 3.7oC warmer by 2050
• Differs by region • latitude, topography, water…
Source: LAMPS Climate Change Group, Ontario Frost Free Season Changes Analysis.
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Annual temperatures in Toronto, 1841-2017
Source: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Colour scale: from 7.6oC (dark blue) to 10.8oC (dark red)
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“Global Warming”?
• ≠ everywhere always warmer
• higher average temperatures • But unevenly distributed • Disruption of natural cycles
• more damaging, more unpleasant extremes
• extreme weather didn’t start with climate change, but climate change did load the dice
TOO HOT!
TOO COLD!
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4 x climate extremes
Source: Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Executive Summary
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Floods, fires, drought, wind, heat…
Photo credit: Viv Lynch. Used under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Photo credit: Ryan Forbes Photo credit: Ottawa Paramedics
Photo credit: Associated Press
Photo credit: The Canadian Press Photo credit: OPP North East
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Precipitation: summer
Source: Prepared by LAMPS York University.
Average change per decade 1979-2016
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Precipitation: winter
Source: Prepared by LAMPS York University.
Average change per decade 1979-2016
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Insured losses (not including uninsured)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
$ Bi
lli on
s ( CA
D )
Ontario Insurance Costs due to Catastrophic Events
Loss trendline
2013 Toronto floods
$1.2 billion in first 9 months of 2018
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Up to 10% of Canadian properties may soon be too high risk for private sector flood insurance, if no protective measures are taken.
Health impacts
Ontario Lyme Disease Risk Map 2018: Estimated Risk Areas Source: Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (Public Health Ontario)
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Forests
• Warmer, drier conditions plus pests/ diseases = higher risk
• e.g., BC, California, Chile, Sweden, Portugal…. • Loss of winter cover • Soot/ black carbon • Who breathes the smoke?
• MNRF: 1,325 forest fires in 2018
Photo credit: US NOAA
Photo credit: MNRF
Plants, animals, fish
Photo credit: Heidi Riedner/Georgina Advocate. Used with permission. Photo credit: bcameron54, (CC BY-SA 3.0)
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Impacts for food and farming?
• Longer growing seasons • But less predictable • Increased droughts and floods • Erosion • Pests
Photo credit: Shutterstock
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And what else?
“Large-scale uneven impacts of climate change may destabilize existing institutional arrangements, increase incentives to violently redistribute wealth, or generate other forms of social conflict.”
Hsiang, Oliva, Walker 2017
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How much worse? Depends on emissions
Source: Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) at York University, Temperature Change for 1900 to 2100 relative to 1986- 2005 from AR5 CMIP5 subset, 2016.
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And on tipping points
• Permafrost • Soil carbon loss • Forest die-back • Ocean current changes • Loss of sea ice
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Is it too late?
• We are in for big changes • There is still a little time to have an impact on what’s coming
•Our choices, right now, matter
• Canadian actions really matter
Opportunities for action
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Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next?
Ontario (again) needs a climate policy
Commitment and credibility
Reducing Emissions
Getting Ready for What’s Coming
Recommendations
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Ontario does know what works
Making polluters pay
Investing in solutions
Regulating polluters
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Ontario was doing so much right
Coal power plant closures
Price on carbon
GGRA/ Action Plan
Starting on adaptation
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It was working
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Re la
ti ve
to 1
99 0
Year
GDP
Population
GHG Emissions
GHG Emissions/Capita
GHG Emissions/GDP
Source: Statistics Canada
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Reduced Reliance on Fossil
Fuels
Government
Economic Growth
Lower Energy Bills
Competitive Businesses
Energy Resilience
Environmental Sustainability
Human Health
Money, climate, wellbeing:
Major co-benefits of reducing reliance on fossil fuels
Source: ECO
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Electricity key to Ontario’s low carbon energy future
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2 Carbon PricingRevenues
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Low-Carbon Ontario
1 Cap & Trade
CAP
High-Carbon Ontario
Energy Efficiency Improvements
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Cap and Trade was starting to work
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Making polluters pay can lead to innovation, creativity, and jobs
Companies take initiative to reduce
costs
Innovate for new ways to reduce
pollution
Make continuous improvement
efforts
Reduce pollution, resulting in annual
cost savings
Hire new jobs to
design and implement solutions
Government puts a price on
carbon Polluter-pay programs are fair and they work.
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19,000 social housing units received energy efficiency upgrades
Energy retrofits at 98 hospitals, 621 schools, 48 universities and colleges
129 municipalities received funds for transit, waste, energy efficiency and cycling infrastructure
$4 invested by industry for every $1 in Cap & Trade funding
Raised billions for low-carbon initiatives
• Cap and Trade raised $2.9B since January 2017
• $1.9B was spent on programs to reduce GHG emissions
• 74% Æ public services (hospitals, schools, social housing and municipalities)
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Ontarians have great ideas
But now: a wrenching halt
• All serious provincial programs cancelled, including cap and trade and renewable energy contracts
• No meaningful replacements • Weak targets, little action • Only 1% public support
• Instead, shoot the watchdog
Ontario is sitting on its hands, or worse.
Where are we now?
Tearing up clean energy contracts
“The sanctity of contracts is fundamental. The government unilaterally cancelling contracts is harmful to business investment in Ontario.” Ashley Challinor – Director of Policy, Ontario Chamber of Commerce
• Adverse effects on investors, public sector, First Nations, Long-Term Energy Plan
752 cancelled renewable energy projects
Source: University of Guelph
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/758-renewable-energy-cancelled-1.4746293 https://www.tvo.org/article/current-affairs/-first-nations-say-they-paid-a-heavy-price-when- the-tories-scrapped-renewable-energy-projects
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Big setback to Indigenous people
Large Renewable Project (LRP) Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Total (LRP +FIT)
Number of Projects Capacity (MW)
Number of Projects
Capacity (MW)
Number of Projects
Capacity (MW)
Projects with Indigenous Participation 8 139.9 208 86.8 216 226.7
All Projects 10 174.9 741 266.9 751 441.8
% of cancelled projects with Indigenous participation 80% 80% 28% 33% 29% 51%
Source: University of Guelph
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Subsidizing fossil fuels
• Existing fossil fuel tax breaks, plus
• Subsidizing natural gas pipeline expansion
• Cutting gas tax
• Fair Hydro Plan?
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, Union Gas, Ontario Solar Installers
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/07/03/canada-oil-gas-subsidies-g7_a_23473843/
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“I used to think that top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and climate change. I thought that thirty years of good science could address these problems. I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy, and to deal with these we need a cultural and spiritual transformation.”
- Gus Speth
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When the province won’t lead
• Federal action – Pan Canadian Framework • Municipalities • Business • Investors/pension funds • Universities • Media • Everyone
The federal backstop is a good start.
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What can we do?
• Climate cannot be left entirely up to government
Reduce your carbon footprint
Get ready to adapt
Speak up
Simple clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted voices.
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The climate crisis presents an opportunity to not just avoid catastrophe, but also to create a better world.
It’s not just a moral obligation. It’s a moral opportunity.
Joel Pett Editorial Cartoon used with the permission of Joel Pett and the Cartoonist Group. All right reserved.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/islands-sea-level-rise-flooding-uninhabitable-climate-change-maldives-seychelles-hawaii- a8321876.html https://www.123rf.com/photo_104717570_wolfe-island-near-kingston-is-covered-with-windmills-that-generate-clean-power-for-the- province-of-o.html
Residents in in low-lying areas of the Marshall Islands have already faced severe flooding, underscoring their vulnerability to climate change ( AFP )
Windmills on Wolf Island by Kingston, Ontario
Assignment 6 – The Paris Agreement
http://time.com/4723481/donald-trump-paris-agreement-withdraw/
Contain global temperature rise to 2oC by 2100; try to stay below 1.5oC: • Financing (minimum
$US100 billion/yr), • new technology
framework, • capacity building
Assignment 6
• Goal • What country-specific actions need to be taken now to meet the
global goal of minimizing climate change in accordance with the Paris Agreement?
• Deadline: Tuesday February 19, midnight
What to do:
1. Each person represents a country: • Canada • The Maldives • Saudi Arabia or another major oil-producing nation located in the
Arabian peninsula • Denmark • Take 15 minutes to research the situation of your country noting, for
example, the magnitude of your country’s GHG emissions, vulnerability to climate change, and state capacity to fund climate change actions (mitigation and adaptation).
What to do: 2. 15 minute roundtable: present your country’s case for action or inaction. Try to persuade other countries.
3. Submit to Quercus: a. State your country’s position with respect to climate change, i.e., does your country strongly support the Paris Agreement (why or why not). Two sentences with 1-2 references.
b. Identify two top priorities for your country to reach the Paris Agreement goals for mitigation (reducing emissions of GHGs). Provide a sound justification for each priority, backed by 1 reference. Two sentences per priority, four sentences total.
c. Identify two top priorities for your country to reach the Paris Agreement goals for adaptation (coping with the effects of climate change). Provide a sound justification for each priority, backed by 1 reference. Two sentences per priority, four sentences total.
