ACCOUNTING REPORT
steve912
5.pptxFinancial Statement Analysis Project
Valuation
Valuation
The last step of the project is to valuate the company and determine the buy price
We are going to introduce two valuation systems:
Margin of Safety price
Buy price based on Owner Earnings
2
Margin of Safety (MOS) Price
Step 1: EPS Trailing 12 month (EPS TTM)
Sum of EPS from the most recent 4 quarters (from Yahoo Finance or 10-Q)
Step 2: Future Growth Rate (FGR) – Key Parameter
You have calculated annual growth rates of Book Value, EPS, CFO, and Sales per share
Use these growth rates to come up your estimate of FGR (you just need to ball park a FGR, and it will be a rough estimate)
Your estimated FGR should be <= Analysts’ forecast of future growth
Step 3: Future EPS=EPS TTM × (1+FGR)10
Projected EPS in 10 years
Margin of Safety (MOS) Price
Step 4: Future P/E Ratio= 2 × FGR
Should be capped at historical high P/E ratio
Step 5: Future Value= Future EPS × Future P/E Ratio
Projected firm value in 10 years
Step 6: Fair Price= Future Value ÷ 4
Company’s fair value today
We want our money to double up every 5 years
Step 7: MOS Price= Fair price × 50%
I can help you with analysts’ forecast of FGR and historical high P/E ratio, as it can be challenging for you to find out
Buy Price based on Owner Earnings
This is the valuation method Buffett uses and explained in his 1986 Letter to Berkshire’s shareholders
We think of businesses like many people think of a real estate investment – a money making machine based on net profits generated
One way to look at a business is by analyzing cash flow generated after certain expenses. If you can keep a good profit after expenses and expect it to continue in the future, you have a good deal.
Buffett defines this cash flow as “Owner Earnings.”
We are looking to buy a great company at a price that will earn a 10% return (=Owner earnings) every year
Compute Owner Earnings
Pretax Income
+ Depreciation and Amortization
+/- Changes in Accounts Receivable
+/- Changes in Inventories
+/- Changes in Accounts Payable
- Maintenance CapEx (Total CapEx with Growth CapEx taken out)
----------------------
= Owner Earnings
Maintenance CapEx
Maintenance CapEx is the money the company spent to replace worn out property and equipment for the last fiscal year.
In real estate, this is like replacement of roof, countertop, carpet, and furnaces, etc.
The money spent on acquiring more real estate properties is Growth CapEx.
Most companies, however, do not separately report maintenance CapEx.
So we need to read 10-K to help us identify the maintenance CapEx.
Entry Point
Now you have two buy prices calculated. If your company is a great company you would like to own for the next 10 years, wait now until an event puts the company on sale
Great companies are often priced high (e.g., Costco, Chipotle, Ulta), and we don’t chase the stock
An event is an incident that causes the company’s stock price to decline sharply and puts the company on sale (i.e., close to the buy price), but we expect that the problem can be fixed in three years (e.g., Boeing airplane crashes).
Final Report
Combine all of your write-ups and organize the final report in the following sections
Business, Moat, Risk, and Management
Profitability, Free Cash Flow, Liquidity, and Solvency
Operating cycle
Valuation
Conclusion and Investment Recommendation
Submit the final report to Canvas by 5:00 pm, April 26th
Group presentation will be scheduled for April 24th and 26th
Each group will have 8-10 minutes to present your company
