GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE
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Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 1
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Alternative Futures: United States
Commercial Satellite Imagery in 2020
Robert A. Weber and Kevin M. O’Connell
November 2011
Contact Information:
Kevin O’Connell
President and CEO
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC
1455 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 415
Washington, DC 2004
www.innovative-analytics.com
Phone 202-280-2045 x1
Prepared for:
Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs
1455 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Suite 415
Washington, DC 20004
202-280-2045 phone
www.innovative-analytics.com
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 2
Foreword
This independent study, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Commerce in late 2010, posits
three alternative futures for U.S. commercial satellite imagery in 2020. It begins with a detailed
history of the U.S. policy and regulatory environment for remote sensing commercialization,
including many of the assumptions made about U.S. government and commercial interests,
international competition, security issues that relate to the proliferation of remote sensing data
and technology, and others. In many ways, it reflects a brilliant American vision that has
sometimes stumbled in implementation.
Following a discussion about remote sensing technologies, and how they are changing, the
report goes on to describe three alternative futures for U.S. commercial satellite imagery in
2020, with a special emphasis on the U.S. high-resolution electro-optical firms. The reader
should note that, by definition, none of these futures is “correct” nor reflects a prediction or a
preference in any way. Alternative futures methodologies are designed to identify plausible
futures, and their underlying factors and drivers, in such a way as to allow stakeholders to
understand important directions for a given issue, including important signposts to monitor as
reflective of movement toward those (or perhaps other) futures. Alternative futures also allow
decision-makers to adapt strategy in the face of these changes, including mitigation or
elimination of futures with negative outcomes or consequences. For this study, the near-term
timeframe of 2020 was chosen to reflect the truly dynamic changes in global thinking and
global markets about this topic.
The report concludes with our independent observations and options about the future role of
the U.S. Department of Commerce and NOAA in the governance of space-based remote
sensing. For both U.S. and international remote sensing countries, space policy and regulation
is becoming less relevant (but not irrelevant) to the governance of remote sensing as the
sensed data is being fused with other data sets (e.g., navigational data) and incorporated into
powerful public and commercial applications.
Three appendices are included at the back of this report. The first highlights key areas of
remote sensing policy and regulation and how they might be re-considered for the 2020
timeframe. The final two appendices map European and Japanese approaches to remote
sensing over the past few decades. Here, the reader might take note of two different aspects
of those comparative approaches: first, the simple differences in the national approaches, and
second, the extent to which U.S. assumptions about foreign behavior were correct, incorrect, or
stimulated unintended consequences. In looking to the future, foreign remote sensing
programs will reflect complex calculations about cooperation and competition that will have to
be assessed critically and objectively.
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The research in this report was concluded in April of 2011. While there have continued to be
many dynamic developments in global remote sensing (such as Surrey’s sale of three 1-meter
satellites to China; the success of ORS-1 and NRO launches; shifts in development and launch
schedules for Pleiades and ASNARO; and the emergence of new U.S. licensees like Skybox and
others), we believe that the approach taken within this report will help U.S. government and
commercial decision-makers think creatively about the future.
Indeed, creative thinking is needed in these challenging times. We need to change a 50-year
mindset about how and why we use space for vital civil and national security missions, as well
as the ways that we do it. It would be unfortunate for the national debate about the future of
remote sensing to devolve into a feckless “commercial versus NTM” debate during a time of
fiscal constraint and extraordinary innovation in technical and commercial applications. We will
need to draw upon the comparative advantages of each sector in order to maintain and
advance the exquisite contributions that remote sensing and satellite imagery bring to our
science, safety, and security, every single day.
Finally, on a personal note, space-based remote sensing is “at the leading edge of global
transparency” as I wrote about it (in Commercial Observation Satellites: At the Leading Edge of
Global Transparency with John Baker and Ray Williamson) over a decade ago. The key
difference is that it is only one dimension of a whirlwind of data and technology, and of new
information applications and innovation. Our more transparent world creates challenges and
opportunities for almost every dimension of governance, security, and commerce, in ways that
require substantial re-thinking.
We hope that this report is informative and helpful.
Kevin M. O’Connell
President and CEO
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC
Washington, D.C. 20004
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Contents
Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………………………………….……...... 4
Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
Purpose and Scope…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 8
National Legal, Policy, and Regulatory Environment……………………………………………………….. 8
Space Commercialization in the 1970s……………………………………………………………………………. 10
Early 1980s Policy, Legal, and Regulatory Framework……………………………………………………. 10
1986 – 1990 Policy Framework………………………………………………………………………………………. 13
1991 – 1994 Policy, Legal, and Regulatory Framework…………………………………………………... 16
1993 – 1995 Policy Push….……………………………………………………………………………………………… 17
1990 – 2000 Commercial Satellite Imagery Projections…………………………………………………. 18
1996 – 2000 Buildup to Commercial Imagery Satellite Operations………………………………… 20
2000 – 2010 Commercial Satellite Imagery Projections…………………………………………………. 24
2001 – 2009 Policy, Regulatory, and Fiscal Framework…………………………………………………. 27
2010: More White House Policy and Commercial Imagery Developments…………………... 34
Remote Sensing Technology Developments………………………………………………………………….. 37
2020 Future One: U.S. Commercial Satellite Imagery is a Thriving Business…………………. 44
2020 Future Two: A Slow Growth Business, Still a U.S. Government Appendage…………. 48
2020 Future Three: Failure as U.S. Government Funds Erode and Competition Grows… 53
Role of the Department of Commerce……………………………….……………………………………….... 60
Appendix A: Key Points in Remote Sensing Law and Regulation…………………………………….. 67
Appendix B: Europe’s Evolving Approach……………………...……………………………………………….. 73
Appendix C: Japan’s Evolving Approach……………………….…..……………………………………………. 99
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Reference Points
1980 Reference Point: U.S. Concerns in Retrospect about Japan and France…………………. 11
1990 Reference Point: U.S. Government Policy………………………………………………………………. 15
2000 Reference Point: Commercial Satellites Operational; Regulatory Debate Continues.. 23
2010 Reference Point: Another Space Policy………………………………………………………………….. 36
2020 Reference Point: The Purpose of Commercial Satellite Imagery……………………………. 59
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Summary
Commercial satellites capable of collecting one meter or better resolution imagery have
been in space since 1999. Two companies operating these satellites, GeoEye, Inc. and
DigitalGlobe, Inc., are largely dependent on U.S. Government funding, such as the 10-year, $7.3
billion two- contract award announced on 6 August 2010 by the National Geospatial-
Intelligence Agency (NGA). Averaged over ten years from 2010 – 2020, this amounts to $730
million per year, or 100 times more than NGA (then NIMA) paid for commercial imagery in
Fiscal Year 1999.
For over 30 years, the U.S. Government in policy, law, and regulation has been an
advocate for commercial satellite imagery, noting repeatedly that Government funding should
not be the basis for long-term success of the industry. Reality is the opposite. Changes in
funding, or a major contribution by disruptive technologies such as small satellites, would have
much more impact than changes in U.S. Government policy, law and regulation because thus
far the Government itself is the business case for this commercial activity.
This alternative futures paper includes decade-spaced reference points since 1980, and
projections by experts in the field that point to possible 2020 outcomes for U.S. commercial
imagery suppliers. Annexes are included on developments in Europe and Japan to track their
progress since a 1980 view by U.S. intelligence that French and Japanese programs would
become serious competitors.
Aside from Federal funding, which may contract due to concerns about the national
debt, the 2020 outlook for U.S. commercial imagery companies depends largely on the scope of
foreign competition and the reason for having such satellites in the first place.
By 2020, foreign competition likely will strengthen. France, Germany, India, Israel,
Japan, and South Korea all should have mature commercial programs for optical,
sub-meter imagery. Operators in other countries could also impact the market.
Nothing can be done to slow this technology development because the United
States does not control it.
Commercial satellite imagery programs gained traction in the United States because
the data are unclassified and sharable. The satellites for NGA, however, are
becoming more capable and more expensive due to performance demands. In the
long-run, the need for three kinds of imagery satellites for defense and intelligence
(classified, commercial and tactical) may face declining budget reality.
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Experts agree that the main purpose of the geospatial industry is to track changes on
the planet and changes in physical resources, such as food, water and minerals. If
analysts are correct that the international geo-political-economic system as we
know it will be almost unrecognizable in 2025, high-resolution commercial imagery
satellites should make a much greater contribution than today for non-military
purposes.
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Alternative Futures: United States Commercial Satellite Imagery in 2020
November 2011
Purpose and Scope
This paper outlines three alternative futures for U.S. commercial, one meter or better
resolution, satellite imagery in 2020.1 Satellites capable of collecting this imagery have been in
space since 1999. Two companies who have these satellites, GeoEye, Inc. and DigitalGlobe,
Inc., are largely dependent on U.S. Government funding, such as the 10-year, $7.3 billion two-
contract award announced on 6 August 2010 by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
(NGA).23 Because non-U.S. companies are moving ahead in this sector, the alternative futures
build on decade-spaced reference points since 1980, and projections by experts in the field,
that point to possible 2020 outcomes for U.S. commercial imagery suppliers. Although the U.S.
Government has for decades had a supportive policy regarding commercial satellite imagery,
the 2020 outlook for U.S. companies depends largely on the annual amount of Federal funding,
the reason for having such satellites, and the scope of foreign competition. Because GeoEye
and DigitalGlobe cite Government rules and regulations as risk factors for their business, the
paper includes an appendix listing key points in current statute and regulation adapted to 2020.
National Legal, Policy, and Regulatory Environment
Projections on the future health of U.S. commercial satellite imagery activities cannot be
made in a vacuum because Federal law, policy, and regulation affect the conduct of commercial
business in this sector. United States earth observation law, policy, and regulations are
generally not issued together. What is common in all three, however, is that the Department
of Defense, Department of State, and Intelligence Community have a major role in setting the
rules for operating commercial earth observation systems. The Department of Commerce is
the licensing authority, but other departments have a major voice in the decisions. The
outcome of earth observation licensing decisions reflects agency-specific needs and interests,
not just the substance of the license application.
United States law and regulation are more important than earth observation policy
because licenses are issued and enforced according to legal and regulatory criteria, not policy.
Policies are open to interpretation and have no penalties. Law and regulation are specific,
1 There are other types of commercial earth observation satellites licensed by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration in the Department of Commerce (http://www.licensing.noaa.gov/licenses.html), but this paper is focused on the future of one-meter or better electro-optical imagery due to large U.S. defense and intelligence outlays for these data. 2 NGA News Release, NGA Awards EnhancedView Commercial Imagery Contract, 6 August 2010.
3 Warren Ferster, NGA Awards Big Satellite Imagery Contracts, SpaceNews, 6 August 2010.
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enforceable, and intertwined. Tracking rules and regulations since 1978 is useful because it
gives context for risks to business cited by DigitalGlobe and GeoEye in their 2009 and 2010
Annual Reports. Cyber security is a risk first cited in 2010, but specific threats were not
listed.4567 Countries such as China and Russia could be suspects.89101112
2010: DigitalGlobe, Inc. 2010: GeoEye, Inc.
Loss or reduction in scope of any of primary contracts, mostly with U.S. government agencies.
Substantial portion of revenue from U.S. government agencies.
Changes in U.S. government policy. Changes in U.S. government policy.
Interruption or failure of infrastructure. Satellites have life limits and are expensive.
Satellites may not operate as intended. Satellites may not operate as designed.
Failure of ImageLibrary could affect business. Satellites may have construction & launch delays.
Market may not accept products and services. Industry is highly competitive and specialized.
Competition may cause company to reduce prices or lose market share.
U.S. and other governments may operate their own systems.
Changes in U.S. or foreign laws and regulations. Success depends on market acceptance.
Failure to obtain regulatory approvals. Failure of infrastructure.
Global economic condition could affect results. Reliance on resellers who could fail.
Dependence on resellers who could fail. Insurance coverage may be difficult or costly.
Dependence on third parties for aerial imagery. Global financial crisis may affect financial results.
International business exposes company to risks. Business is capital intensive.
Inability to attract and retain key employees. Failure to obtain regulatory approvals.
Satellites have life limits and are expensive. International business exposes company to risks.
Limited insurance coverage and availability. Success hinges on small number of key personnel.
Substantial debt. Government audit could affect cash position.
Stock price will fluctuate substantially. Effective income tax rate may vary.
Amended Delaware certificate might affect stock. Acquisitions, investments, alliances, and ventures could affect operational results.
Do not pay dividends on common stock. Company has substantial indebtedness; servicing debt requires significant cash.
Breach of system security could result in loss of business.
Information and security systems may be subject to intrusion.
4 DigitalGlobe, Inc., 2009 Annual Report, U.S. Security and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, 24 February 2010.
5 GeoEye, Inc., 2009 Annual Report, U.S. Security and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, 12 March 2010.
6 DigitalGlobe, Inc., 2010 Annual Report, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, February 2011.
7 GeoEye, Inc. 2010 Annual Report, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, March 2011.
8 Ken Dilanian, Virtual war a real threat, Los Angeles Times, 28 March 2011.
9 DigitalGlobe, Inc., Press release on major milestone for imagery collection of China, 22 March 2011.
10 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DigitalGlobe-Reaches-Major-Milestone, Marketwire, 22 March 2011.
11 GeoEye signs reseller contracts, Geospatial World, 19 March 2009.
12 Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2010.
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Space Commercialization in the 1970s
The United States first deployed the government-developed and operated Landsat
imagery satellite in 1972. There were no commercial U.S. imagery satellites in that decade.
Nonetheless, in May 1978, President Jimmy Carter signed a directive giving the U.S.
Government authority to regulate remote sensing, noting that commercial use of space could
provide economic benefit.13
“The United States shall encourage domestic commercial exploitation of space capabilities and systems for economic benefit and to promote the technological position of the United States, except that all United States earth-oriented remote sensing satellites will require United States Government authorization and supervision or regulation.”
In October 1978, when noting that the United States had photoreconnaissance satellites
for monitoring arms agreements, President Carter described the value and contribution of the
American investment in space programs.14
“We have invested so far some $100 billion over the history of our American space programs. It’s now time for us to capitalize on that major investment even more.”
“Earth resources satellites have already proved their value to many countries through remote sensing. They tell us about everything from the location of mineral and energy deposits to the condition of our crops, from the motion of icebergs to the health of the oceans. We will continue to develop and to use these satellites for the benefit of all people of the world.”
Early 1980s Policy, Legal, and Regulatory Framework
Although the 1970s U.S. experience with Landsat was positive, what to do about the
future of the program was uncertain. Competition was expected from France and Japan. The
Acting Director of Central Intelligence wrote to the Secretary of Commerce with views on what
to do about a Landsat follow-on system.15
“…the remote sensing field will become far more dynamic in the next few years as
U.S. leadership is challenged by the ongoing programs of France and Japan…This
SPOT program has been under development for a number of years and was
approved in late 1977 by the French government…The Japanese satellite program
can also be expected to be a strong competitor.”
13
The White House, National Space Policy, Presidential Directive / NSC-37, 1978. 14
Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, 9 October 1978. 15
Frank C.Carlucci to Philip M. Klutznik, 14 October 1980.
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“…an inadequate or poorly implemented system of capital investments poses the
risk of developing and inefficient or unreliable remote sensing system…this will only
serve to further stimulate foreign competition in the international market…the
Europeans and Japanese are already making major remote sensing advances…”
16
Spot Magazine, No. 40, 2 nd
Semester 2005, pp. 14-17. 17
Japan’s Strategic Headquarters for Space Policy, Basic Plan for Space Policy, 2 June 2009. 18
The Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies, Directory of Japanese Space Products & Services, 2009. 19
Goodrich Press Release, Goodrich to Support Japan’s Next Generation Advanced Observation Satellite, 11 February 2009. 20
Bob Weber, Japan: Spy Satellite Program Advances Despite Barriers, April 2010. 21
http://milspacejapan.blogspot.com/, 18 October 2010.
1980 Reference Point: U.S. Concerns in Retrospect about France and Japan
The benefit of time shows that the concerns were more about preserving Landsat than
foreign commercial competition. In fact, the United States did not try to privatize Landsat operations
until 1986, the same year that France launched its first SPOT-1 satellite. In 2005, 25 years after U.S.
concern about French competition, SPOT Chairman and CEO Herve Buchwalter projected that gaining
a foothold in the high resolution imagery market would be a major challenge.16 Nonetheless, he said
that “…we are looking to carve out a substantial share of a market that today is a virtual monopoly of
the United States…The shift towards higher resolution, facilitating wider access to strategic
information, is also viewed by the international community as something that will stabilize the
geopolitical context.” His company begins that quest in 2011 with the launch of its first Pleiades sub-
meter resolution imagery satellite. This could be a basis for renewed U.S. concern over foreign
competition.
Regarding Japan, since 1987 the government has deployed a range of earth observation
satellites. But, a 2009 Japanese government report states that the commercial benefit has been
weak to non-existent;17 “…the international competitiveness of Japan’s space industry is
weak…Especially for observing sensors, in the area of optical sensors, which is implemented
commercially, Japan has not gained much competitiveness…In light of these circumstances, it is
important to strengthen the international competitiveness by developing Japan’s space industry into
a strategic industry for the 21st century after the electronics and automobile industries.”
The Japanese company NEC offers a 0.5 meter resolution small satellite in a space products
catalog.18 This may indicate a move to compete in this sector, using an optics contribution by a U.S.
firm,19 not just field such a system for national security purposes.20 An observer of Japanese space-
related developments also indicates that it may be an attempt by NEC to compete with Mitsubishi
for a next generation spy satellite project.21
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President Reagan took office in January 1981. He issued a new National Space Policy.22
Guidance to spur commercial use of space was included.
“The United States encourages domestic commercial exploration of space
capabilities, technology, and systems for national benefit. These activities must be
consistent with national security concerns, treaties, and international agreements.”
Moreover, regarding cooperation in Federal civil activities such as Landsat, the policy was to “Support the public, nondiscriminatory direct readout of data from Federal civil systems to foreign ground stations and provision of data to foreign users under specified conditions.”
President Carter and President Reagan each issued policy that affected earth
observation, but the first U.S. law on this subject was not passed until 1984.23 The law was
based on the Reagan Administration’s view that commercial enterprise in the United States
could do certain things more effectively than the Government. For this reason, the law was an
attempt to privatize Landsat system operations. Nonetheless, the findings of the Congress
retained a role for the Government because it was not clear that earth observation would
succeed as a commercial activity.
“…the national interest of the United States lies in maintaining international leadership in civil remote sensing and in broadly promoting the beneficial use of remote sensing data.”
“…competitive, market-driven private sector involvement in land remote sensing is in the national interest of the United States.”
“…there is doubt that the private sector alone can currently develop a total land remote sensing system because of the high risk and large capital expenditure involved.”
The principle of nondiscriminatory access to data was upheld in the 1984 law. This
meant that provision of data could not favor one buyer or class of buyers over another.
The key part of the law that affects commercial earth observation licensing today was the requirement for the Secretary of Commerce to consult with the Secretary of Defense on all matters about the law that would affect national security, and for
22
The White House, National Space Policy, National Security Decision Directive Number 42, 4 July 1982. 23
U.S. Congress, Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act, Public Law 98-365, 17 July 1984.
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Defense to notify Commerce about relevant conditions needed in a commercial license.
Moreover, the Secretary of Commerce was required to consult with the Secretary of State on all matters about the law that could affect the international obligations of the United States, and for State to notify Commerce about conditions needed in a commercial license.
The law also required the operator to notify Commerce of any agreements with foreign nations
or entities, provide to the U.S. Government the technical specifications of the system, and
permit inspection of the company’s equipment, facilities and financial records. These rules
were in effect before the first SPOT satellite was launched in 1986. Only one license was issued
under the 1984 law; it took until 1987 for Commerce to issue licensing regulations that set forth
procedures for submission and Government review of license applications.24 These regulations
are known as 15 CFR Part 960. CFR means Consolidated Federal Regulations.
1986 – 1990 Policy Framework
1986 was a pivotal year that further defined the importance of the U.S. Government’s
role regarding the operation of earth observation systems.
SPOT 1 was launched in February, just weeks after a launch accident involving the U.S. Space Shuttle Challenger, and before a reported April launch failure for a U.S. reconnaissance satellite.25 As a result, there was much focus on space policy and performance in the United States.
The Chernobyl reactor in the USSR exploded two months after SPOT’s launch, giving news organizations worldwide their best overhead view of the scene, and a way to “penetrate Soviet secrecy.”26
A new U.S. National Space Policy was released in February 1988, near the end of
President Reagan’s administration.27 The fundamental objective was space leadership, but the
policy stated that “Leadership in an increasingly competitive international environment does
not require United States preeminence in all areas and disciplines of space enterprise.” The
24
Department of Commerce to Office of the Federal Register, 27 November 1995. 25
Wikipedia, KH-9 Hexagon, 2 September 2009. 26
On 2 May 1986, The Washington Post ran a lengthy article on “The Nuclear Accident at Chernobyl.” In June 1986, the Washington Journalism Review used a SPOT photo of Chernobyl to discuss the possible public impact of high- quality imaging from space. The USA Today called SPOT “the ultimate skycam”. On 11 August, in a front page The Washington Times story, titled “Photo satellites for media worry intelligence brass”, a former CIA official said he was “…not used to seeing pictures like that outside the agency.” 27
The White House, Fact Sheet on Presidential Directive on National Space Policy, 11 February 1988.
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policy also made key points about commercial space activities, including earth observation, and
how to stimulate it.
“The United States shall encourage and not preclude the commercial use and
exploitation of space technologies and systems for national economic benefit
without direct Federal subsidy. These commercial activities must be consistent with
national security interests, and international and domestic legal obligations.”
“The United States shall encourage other countries to engage in free and fair trade
in commercial space goods and services.”
“Commercial space activities shall be supervised or regulated only to the extent
required by law, national security, international obligations, and public safety.”
“The United States Government will encourage the development of commercial
systems which image the Earth from space competitive with or superior to foreign-
operated civil or commercial systems.”
“To stimulate private sector investment, ownership, and operation of space assets,
the United States Government will facilitate private sector access to appropriate U.S.
space-related hardware and facilities, and encourage the private sector to undertake
commercial space ventures.”
The policy also stated that the Department of Commerce would commission a study to provide
information for future policy and program decisions on options for a commercial advanced
earth remote sensing system.
Within weeks after the policy was issued, however, a law firm representing several news
media entities petitioned the Department of Commerce to amend the regulations for private
remote sensing systems.28 The news media alleged that the regulations were so vague “that
they chill commercial interest in remote sensing”, and were not consistent with the new
Reagan policy.29 Commerce believed that the regulations encouraged a climate for the growth
of commercial remote sensing, but agreed to consider clarifying certain principles.
The 1989 transition to the term of President George H.W. Bush resulted in a directive
that was a continuation of the Reagan guidance to encourage to the maximum extent feasible
28
Kathleen A. Kirby to Michael Mignono, 2 February 1996. 29
Federal Register, Vol. 54, Notice on Licensing of Private Remote Sensing Space Systems, 18 January 1989.
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the development and use of United States private sector space capabilities, but was more
specific about earth observation.30 The Government would:
“ensure the continuity of Landsat-type satellites.”
“ discuss remote sensing issues and activities with foreign governments operating or
regulating the private operation of remote sensing systems.”
“encourage the development of commercial systems, which image the Earth from
space, competitive with, or superior to, foreign operated civil or commercial
systems.”
This directive meant that the U.S. Government would encourage commercial operators to
operate systems at least as capable as commercial systems such as SPOT, or civil systems such
as Europe’s Earth Resources Satellite (ERS).
30
The White House, National Space Policy Directive Number 1, 2 November 1989. 31
Ibid. 32
Aviation Week and Space Technology, 23 March 1987. 33
Brochure from Historical Imagery Declassification Conference, 20 September 2002, page 3. 34
The White House, National Space Policy Directive 3, 11 February 1991.
1990 Reference Point: U.S. Government Policy
The late 1989 policy of President George H. W. Bush encouraged United States competition
with foreign civil and commercial imaging systems, not one or the other.31 The logic was sound
because neither France nor Japan had made leaps in this field. Deploying commercial systems better
than SPOT, and Japan’s first Marine Observation Satellite launched in 1987 was not a technical issue.
MOS-1 was designed to monitor natural resources, even though Aviation Week and Space
Technology reported that it could image airfields.32 U.S. industry could meet that test because U.S.
intelligence satellites collected better than one-meter resolution imagery by 1966.33
By early 1991, Government guidance supported using anchor tenancy as a model for
supporting commercial business ventures.34 Initial contractual support for Government purchase of
product or service would spur industry in the short term, but give way on grounds that long-term
viability and growth must come primarily from the sale of product or service to customers outside
the U.S. Government. Twenty years later, however, according to DigitalGlobe and GeoEye annual
reports, potential loss of Government funding is a risk factor. The risk is substantial because much
of the companies’ revenue derives from the Government, which is subject to annual appropriation.
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1991-1994 Policy, Legal, and Regulatory Framework
U.S. commercial space policy guidelines were issued in February 1991.35 Remote
sensing was listed as one of five specific commercial space-related areas. For the purposes of
the guidance, remote sensing was “…the private development, manufacture, and operation of
remote sensing satellites and the marketing of remote sensing data.” As a matter of policy,
commercial space objectives would not involve the use of direct Federal subsidies because
“…the commercial market ultimately determines the viability of the activity.”
The guidance was crafted to allow companies involved in remote sensing to succeed or
fail on their own merit, without Government support. Nonetheless, U.S. Government agencies
were encouraged to use commercial services.
“U.S. Government agencies shall actively consider, at the earliest appropriate time,
the feasibility of using commercially available products and services in agency
programs and activities.”
“U.S. Government agencies shall enter into appropriate cooperative agreements to
encourage and advance private sector basic research, development, and operations.
Agencies may reduce initial private sector risk by agreeing to future use of privately
supplied space products and services where appropriate.”
One of the keys to the guidance was the kind of Government arrangement with
companies that would provide initial Government support, but not be the long-term basis for
success of the business venture. Anchor tenancy was cited as a method.
“Anchor tenancy is an example of an arrangement whereby U.S. Government
agencies can provide initial support to a venture by contracting for enough of the
future product or service to make the venture viable in the short term. Long-term
viability and growth must come primarily from the sale of product or service to
customers outside the U.S. Government.”
The White House put in place a policy foundation supporting commercial remote
sensing business ventures, but within one year Congress passed a law that reestablished
Landsat as a Government program. 36 The law was a sign that the mid-1980s attempt to
privatize system operations failed. In House of Representatives Report 102-539, foreign
competition was cited by the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology as a factor
35
Ibid. 36
U.S. Congress, “Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992”, Public Law 102-555, 28 October 1992.
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that was not in play when the 1984 law was passed. The fact that SPOT began operating in
1986 had an impact on the 1992 law: “These *foreign+ systems operate within a commercial
marketplace in which [U.S.] national security constraints can cause significant competitive
disadvantages.”
The Committee made an important statement, but it did not become law and
apparently has not been a serious consideration for almost 20 years: “U.S. land remote sensing
systems should be permitted to provide whatever level of spatial resolution or other technical
specifications may be of interest for civilian or commercial applications.” As a result, U.S.
Government agencies spend much time debating system characteristics that involve national
security and foreign policy issues.
1993 – 1995 Policy Push
The 1992 law resulted in extensive discussion and debate in 1993 about relevant
Government regulations needed under President Clinton’s administration to ensure
compliance. Private companies wanted to operate commercial earth observation systems, and
testified to Congress about the need for a flexible regulatory environment that would not stifle
business. In informal review of draft regulations issued by the Department of Commerce, a
government working group with expertise on national security matters reminded Commerce via
letter from the Central Intelligence Agency of text in its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking:
“There is a presumption that the Government can resolve national security concerns
through conditions in a license rather than by outright denial except in the case of
systems with ground resolutions of better than one meter.”37
This gave an indication that commercial systems with better than one meter capability would
be a challenge to license for operation.
On 10 March 1994, the Department of Commerce hailed the Clinton administration’s
“New Policy on Remote Sensing Space Capabilities.”38 This was described as an effort to
increase global market access for American business, and help create jobs. The market for
space-based imagery was projected to be in the range of $5 to $15 billion by 2000, including
the market for geographic information systems. There was a presumption that licenses would
be granted to operate commercial systems with performance characteristics already available
or planned for availability in the marketplace, such as SPOT.
Six weeks after the Department of Commerce announcement, a license was granted to
Lockheed Missiles and Space Company to operate a private remote sensing system, about ten
37
Darlene M. Connelly to John Milholland, 14 September 1993. 38
The White House, Presidential Decision Directive 23, 10 March 1994.
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months after the company filed a license application.39 One of the key points in the license, and
in subsequent licenses for other companies, was the requirement to comply with the 1992 law.
Specifically, “The Licensee shall operate the system in a manner that preserves the national
security and observes the international obligations and foreign policies of the United States.”
The Licensee was not authorized to decide on its own how to comply with this rule. As a result,
U.S. Government experts from multiple agencies set the conditions.
In December 1995, the Department of Commerce sought public comment on how the
Department could best implement regulations consistent with the 1994 White House policy.40
This is consistent with the practice of “open” government in the United States. Almost seven
months elapsed before a public hearing was held to amend 15 CFR 960.41 Nonetheless, nine
licenses to operate private remote sensing systems were issued from 1993 – 1995, compliant
with the 1992 law.42
1990 - 2000 Commercial Satellite Imagery Projections
In 1992, the commercial satellite imagery data market had $100 million in annual sales,
and was growing at 20-30 percent annually.43 This was only a fraction of the size of the
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) industry valued at $5.3 billion. Nonetheless, observers
did not expect sales of imagery to pay for the construction of new satellites anytime soon.
Sales of imagery in 1991 from the French SPOT system were $40 million, enough to cover the
costs of satellite operations. For the same year, revenue from sale of Landsat data and services
was $32 million.44 By mid-1994, when the Government championed a vibrant way ahead for
commercial satellite imagery, estimates of the data market ranged from $80 to $400 million per
year.45 In 1995, the Department of Commerce indicated the market for this imagery was $315
million.46
The path for U.S. commercial satellite imagery success was shaped by operational
parameters permitted for such satellites. In 1996, an independent panel reviewed possible
future satellite designs by the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). The panel stated that it
did not believe “…our key needs can be met by the products of the current commercial space
39
Robert S. Winokur to Albert E. Smith, 22 April 1994. 40
Federal Register, Vol. 61, Notice of Inquiry and Request for Public Comment on 15 CFR 960, 4 December 1995. 41
Federal Register, Vol. 61, Notice of Public Hearing on 15 CFR 960, 15 May 1996. 42
Department of Commerce to Office of the Federal Register, 27 November 1995. 43
Remote Sensing Sales Grow With Expanding Data Needs, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 13 July 1992. 44
Scott N. Pace, Public-Private Sector Collaboration to Demonstrate Advanced Remote Sensing Technologies, 27 October 1992. 45
Tim Bauer and Chris Hassapis, Commercial Remote Sensing Systems and the Market, Project West Wing, August 1994. 46
Katherine McIntire Peters, Space Wars, GovExec.com, April 1998.
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imaging companies.”47 Almost as if defining a line between the capabilities of NRO satellites
and commercial counterparts, the panel encouraged the Government to use products from
companies who could provide imagery from 1 to 4 meter resolution systems.
An author in 1997 noted that commercial imagery could be a threat to the imaging
dominance of the NRO.48 But, he assessed that future military reconnaissance could
become more closely tied with private sector systems.
The director of the French space agency CNES said that the U.S. commercial imagery
strategy was to meet the international demand for intelligence imagery without
giving up control of national technology.49
The MITRE Corporation concluded that U.S. commercial imagery companies would
require U.S. military and intelligence users to fund them for years.50
In January 1999, the President of the International Society for Photogrammetry and
Remote Sensing (ISPRS) assessed in a presentation to his membership that the impact of high-
resolution satellite imagery could be “major” regarding many aspects of human activity.51 He
appealed to the membership to bring to public attention the benefits and applications of the
industry. A market research firm estimated that the $173 million imaging market would grow
to $419 million in 2005.52
In 1999, an expert who tracks the planning and deployment of earth observation
systems, reported that only the United States and Israel were expected to have one meter or
better resolution satellite systems by the end of 2001.53 Meanwhile, the Director of the
National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) told commercial imagery managers that Fiscal
Year 1999 NIMA purchases of imagery and production support using commercial imagery would
be $7.3 million dollars.54 He estimated this would increase to $29 million in Fiscal Year 2000,
more than a 1998 NIMA projection,55 and $201 million in Fiscal Year 2005. This aligned with a
47
Independent Panel Review of Small Satellites, Director of Central Intelligence, 29 June 1996. 48
Bill Sweetman, Spy Satellites: The Next Leap Forward, International Defense Review, 1 January 1997. 49
Ibid. 50
E. Lee Tilton III and Pitt G. Thome, Commercial Remote Sensing Infrastructure and Related Services, The MITRE Corporation, November 1997. 51
Lawrence W. Fritz, High Resolution Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites and Spatial Information Systems, July 1999. 52
Frost & Sullivan, Projection for Worldwide Revenues for Commercial Satellite Imagery, 1999. 53
Willam E. Stoney, Summary of Land Imaging Satellites Planned to be Operational by 2003, 18 May 1999. 54
LTG James King, IGC-Commercial Remote Sensing Industry Forum, 22 October 1999. 55
Warren Ferster, NIMA Funds Bolster Private Imagery Firms, SpaceNews, 23 March 1998.
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construct by the Director, National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to give commercial companies
“some incentive to know that as their capabilities increase, the amount of purchases by the U.S.
Government will also likely increase.”56 A user market analysis by the National Remote Sensing
Centre in the UK noted that spatial resolution and frequency of acquisition are the two most
important factors to support military needs.57
The President of ISPRS was not alone in his assessment that commercial satellite
imagery would flourish. Years earlier a staff study by the Permanent Select Committee on
Intelligence declared that “Commercial *imagery+ systems will allow everyone, including our
foes, to have access to high resolution imagery.”58 With regard to arms control, a study found
that wider availability of such imagery could reduce U.S. Government influence due to its
previous near-monopoly on such imagery, and increase the time needed to achieve consensus
among governments.59 According to The New York Times, competition in the satellite imagery
sector heated up as Russia entered the fray.60 The article included a Russian photo of lower
Manhattan, including the World Trade Center with shadows falling on the Hudson River, 15
months before 9/11.
1996 – 2000 Buildup to Commercial Imagery Satellite Operations
The White House released a new National Space Policy just before the end of President
Clinton’s first term.61 There was continued Government support for commercial earth
observation capabilities, including technology development partnerships with industry. Use of
Public Private Partnerships normally associated with similar projects in Europe was not
specified in the policy. With regard to international cooperation, the policy stated that “…the
U.S. Government will seek mutually beneficial cooperation with U.S. commercial and other
national and international Earth observation system developers and operators.”
The 1994 and 1996 policies did not eliminate all concerns about earth observation
system licensing by potential operators. There was no movement for years on a 1993
56
NRO May Shift Routine Work to Commercial Operators, Aviation Week Space Business, 19 July 1999. 57
NRO Profile and Commercial Policy for Satellite Imagery, CSP Associates, Inc., 24 February 1999, 58
HPSCI. The Intelligence Community in the 21 st
Century. 9 April 1996. 59
Lewis Dunn and Richard Davis, Implications of Commercial Satellite Imagery on Arms Control, Science Applications International Corporation, 5 April 1999. 60
Russian Agency Sells Close-up Images from Far Away, The New York Times, 20 June 2000. 61
The White House, Fact Sheet on National Space Policy, 19 September 1996.
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suggestion by Congressman George Brown of California “…to put up a dual-purpose radar
satellite, let the intelligence agencies use it, and sell the products on the commercial market.”62
In 1997, former Senator Dennis DeConcini expressed concern that “no U.S. company
has been licensed to sell high resolution radar imagery.”63 Noting that 12 U.S.
companies had been granted licenses since 1992, but none for radar, he argued that
“If *Commerce+ does not license a radar satellite system, then a foreign owned radar
system, with a one meter or less capability, will enter the market leaving the U.S.
government with no effective control in this area.”
DeConcini made his argument one week before a letter from senators on the
intelligence and appropriations committees was sent to the Director, NRO seeking
an unclassified technology demonstration for a radar satellite.64 DoD reportedly
wanted restrictions on commercial radar satellites that companies believed would
impair business.65
In May 1998, former Senator Tom Daschle wrote to the Pentagon noting that “If
currently proposed restrictions on U.S. commercial remote sensing satellites are not
revised, the capabilities of foreign SAR systems will quickly exceed those of the
United States.”66 DoD’s reply was that policy was to approve any license requests
submitted by U.S. firms, “…contingent only upon the inclusion of operational and
data distribution restrictions necessary to protect national security.”67 The specific
license conditions were important because Canada’s planned Radarsat-2 system
would result in products better than could be sold by U.S. companies.68
A radar satellite operating license was granted to a U.S. company in June 1998, but
revoked two years later due to contract fraud against the U.S. Government.6970
62
Congressional Record. Congressman Brown wanted to invest in dual-use satellites to save money on classified ones because the cost was causing “…a tremendous gap in our intelligence. We know nothing about what is going on in the Muslim world. There is a hiatus in terms of human intelligence about the great revolutionary movement shaking the world.” 3 August 1993. p. H5698. 63
Dennis DeConcini to David Strauss, 8 April 1997. 64
Richard Shelby, Robert Kerrey, Ted Stevens, and Daniel Inouye to Keith Hall, 15 April 1997. 65
Warren Ferster, DoD Imperils Private Radar Satellites, SpaceNews, 24 November 1997. 66
Tom Daschle to John Hamre, 6 May 1998. 67
John Hamre to Tom Daschle, 7 August 1998. 68
Warren Ferster, U.S. Firms Demand Parity to Radarsat-2, SpaceNews, 9 March 1998. 69
Warren Ferster, RDL Nabs First License for U.S. Radar Satellite, SpaceNews, 22 June 1998. 70
www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Defence-Weekly-98; Los Angeles Times, 14 September 1998; www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=3006; www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2000/November/649.civ.html
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In March 1998, four years after PDD-23, The White House issued guidance on how the
President’s policy would be implemented.71 The focus of the guidance was on proposals by
U.S. companies to export advanced remote sensing systems. One of the guiding prerequisites
for an export decision was whether the proposed export had performance characteristics
“…already available commercially or planned for availability on the international market.”
Decisions on actual exports of systems on the U.S. Munitions List were to be made in accord
with existing laws and regulations, including the Arms Export Control Act, and the International
Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).
United States earth observation law, policy, and regulation were aligned by 1999 when
the first IKONOS commercial imaging satellite was launched. The January 1999 version of 15
CFR 960 specified what is in an operator’s license.
The name and address of the person to whom the license is being issued, effective
date, and license duration.
The characteristics of the system, including range of orbits and authorized altitudes.
The range of spatial resolution or instantaneous field of view authorized, and the
spectral bands authorized.
Also included in licenses are terms and conditions necessary to ensure “Compliance with
any national security concerns and any international obligations specified by the Department of
Defense and State respectively.” This factor remained as important as it was in the 1984 and
1992 laws. In January 2000, The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy stated
that U.S. Defense, State, and Intelligence leaders had agreed on “interagency procedures on
commercial imaging systems.”72 The Memorandum of Understanding took into account
equities in various U.S. Government agencies, and indicated that the Secretary of Commerce
would make decisions on license applications within 120 days after submission.
The Department of Commerce in July 2000 sought comments on an Interim Final Rule
regarding licensing of private remote sensing systems.73 The Rule would take into account the
interagency MOU. The concern about licensing commercial radar systems, however, was not
the only public concern on licensing of private imaging systems. The Department of Commerce
received 24 replies after its November 1997 request for comments that would be factored into
71
The White House, Implementation Guidance on NSC/PDD-23, 18 March 1998. 72
The White House, Fact Sheet on MOU Concerning the Licensing of Private Remote Sensing Satellite Systems, 13 January 2000. 73
Federal Register, Vol. 65, Interim Final Rule on Licensing of Private Remote Sensing Space Systems, 31 July 2000.
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the Interim Final Rule for 15 CFR 960. Three U.S. companies reacted negatively in an October
2000 letter.74
“…we believe that the Interim Rule is an impossible abdication by the Department of
Commerce of its Congressionally delegated licensing authority and its authority to
resolve conflicts between national security, foreign obligations, and commercial
interests. These are duties that can be undertaken only by the Secretary of
Commerce and cannot be delegated to a vague and indefinite interagency process…
The licensing regime affected by the Interim Final Rule represents a profound threat
to the survival of our still-embryonic industry.”
Notwithstanding the interagency process, in 2000 the U.S. firm Space Imaging had Ikonos as an
operational system, and ended the year with a license to operate a half-meter resolution
commercial satellite, according to a company press release and a February 2001 report to
Congress by The Office of Space Commercialization in the Department of Commerce.7576 Space
Imaging anticipated that it would launch a new satellite in 2004.
74
Herbert Satterlee, Gilbert Rye, and John Copple to Charles Wooldridge, 26 October 2000. 75
Space Imaging Press Release, 6 December 2000. 76
www.space.commerce.gov/library/reports/2001-02-congress.shtml 77
Walter Scott, Prepared Statement to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 17 November 1993. 78
U.S. Commission on National Security / 21 st
Century, Major Themes and Implications, 15 September 1999.
2000 Reference Point: Commercial Satellites Operational; Regulatory Debate Continues
The U.S. firm Earthwatch, Inc. was successful in its 24 December 1997 launch of a 3-meter
resolution commercial imagery satellite, but it failed in orbit. Earthwatch grew out of a business
formed in 1991 to be a supplier of imagery to GIS, mapping, resource management, and
environmental monitoring markets.77 Owing to the satellite’s resolution, Government concerns
about its operation were not as significant as for 1-meter systems. U.S. industry concerns about
Government regulatory behavior were not assuaged, however, by the success of the Ikonos 1-meter
satellite, and approval for companies to operate commercial satellites that could provide 0.5m
resolution optical imagery. The decision fulfilled the Government’s objective to allow U.S.
companies to operate systems on par with, or better than, non-U.S. competitors. In 2000, neither
France nor Japan had such systems. Nonetheless, a report on the 21st Century projected that over
the next 25 years “many other countries will learn to launch satellites to communicate and spy.”78
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2000 – 2010 Commercial Satellite Imagery Projections
In January 2000, the IKONOS imagery satellite began operations, opening a new era for
high resolution commercial space-based imaging. Nonetheless, an industry observer wrote that
the United States was mired in uncertainty and complexity, “…creating not only the opportunity
but the incentive for others to participate…” in commercial remote sensing.79 One of the
uncertainties was a large new U.S. spy satellite program that would be launched in 2005.
Media reporting indicated the program would cost $25 billion over 20 years.80
Based on research by Frost & Sullivan, Space Imaging, Inc. estimated in 2000 that the
market for 0.5 to 1 meter resolution imagery would grow from 29 percent to 44 percent in
2005.81 The estimate was optimistic, as was an estimate in a wide-ranging study conceived in
1999, published in 2004, by the American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing
(ASPRS) forecasting that sale of satellite imagery by 2010 would be $2 billion per year. 82
Nonetheless, the ASPRS data implied that users would want more imagery better than 1 meter
in resolution.
The National Imagery and Mapping Agency planned to “purchase first and second-
generation commercial imagery and imagery-derived products, gradually increasing purchases
over the next few years as the number and capabilities of commercial systems grow.”83 In
Fiscal Year 2001, the agency allocated $25 million for these purposes.84 Although NIMA
reportedly bought all rights to commercial imagery of Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist
attacks, the director of NIMA later said “It’s pretty unlikely we would do that again.”8586 Frost &
Sullivan estimated that the DoD and other Government agency share of the market would
decrease from over 60 percent in 2003, to less than 56 percent in 2010. 87
Projections for commercial satellite imagery competition were important for U.S.
Government regulators as well as private sector satellite operators. For example, ImageSat
International of Israel announced in February 2001 that it would field by 2003 a satellite called
EROS B capable of collecting better than one meter resolution imagery.88899091 Space Imaging
79
Kevin O’Connell, Commercial Remote Sensing Next Generation Licenses, 26 July 2000. 80
Joseph Fitchett, Spying from Space: U.S. to Sharpen the Focus, International Herald Tribune, 10 April 2001. 81
Briefing Chart by Space Imaging sourced to Frost and Sullivan. Commercial Remote Sensing Data Market. 2000. 82
Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Volume 70, Number 1, January 2004. 83
National Imagery and Mapping Agency. Questions and Answers on Use of Commercial Satellite Imagery, 20 October 2000. 84
NIMA, NIMA Plans for Commercial Imagery Expenditures, 22 January 2001. 85
David Whitehouse, US Buys Afghan Image Rights, BBC online, 17 October 2001. 86
Kerry Gildea, NIMA Unlikely to Enter Future Exclusive Access Deals for Commercial Imagery, Defense Daily, 5 June 2002. 87
Frost & Sullivan, North American Remote Sensing Vertical Market Analysis, 2004. 88
Barbara Opall-Rome, EROS A1 Satellite Returning First Images, SpaceNews, 10 January 2001.
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stated that whereas U.S. companies had a “commercial only” business model, companies in
France and Israel were government subsidized.92 An expert industry observer reported in
October 2004 that 13 countries would have mid-to-high resolution imagery satellites in orbit by
2010.93 In mid-2005, a research analyst at Frost & Sullivan told an Indian newspaper that
worldwide sale of satellite image data would be around $1 billion for that year.94 According to
the CEO of SPOT Image, the entire earth observation chain would shift away from full funding
by governments to public-private partnerships.95 In a Congressional Research Service report,
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye’s precursor named ORBIMAGE were reportedly struggling due to a
limited market for their products.96 The ORBIMAGE / GeoEye CEO noted that a well supported
industry provides great value to the Government because it provides more capacity,
redundancy and sharable data.97
By 2007, U.S. commercial satellite imagery companies had gained years of operating
experience, and NIMA’s October 2003 transformation into the NGA was well underway. Shortly
after a report was published on the role of commercial imagery in NGA-related activities, the
Director, NGA noted that technology developments over time would lead to more overlap than
in the past regarding government and commercial imagery programs.9899 Survey data by ASPRS
in 2008 suggested that both satellite and aerial high resolution imagery would remain in
demand.100 About 17 percent of respondents to an ASPRS survey indicated use of 0.5 to 1
meter imagery, but 45 percent said they use 0.05 to 0.5 meter data. At around the same time,
the satellite consulting firm Euroconsult estimated that commercial satellite data sales would
increase from $735 million in 2007 to $2.5 - $3.4 billion in 2017.101
Making commercial satellites more capable increases their utility for military and other
purposes.
89
Barbara Opall-Rome, Israeli Firm Cancels Plan for EROS A2 Imaging Satellite, SpaceNews, 20 February 2001. 90
Robert Wall, ImageSat to Expand Satellites, Customers, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 8 July 2002. 91
Israeli-Built Imaging Satellite Begins Operations, Jane’s International Defense Review, February 2001. 92
John R. Copple, Global Remote Sensing Programs, 6 December 2000. 93
W.E. Stoney, ASPRS Guide to Land Imaging Satellites, Special Edition, GeoTech 2004, 12 October 2004. 94
N. Gopal Raj, Mapping the Earth from a New High, The Hindu, 7 May 2005. 95
Interview with Herve Buchwalter, SPOT Magazine, No. 40, 2 nd
Semeseter 2005. 96
Patricia Moloney Figliola, CRS Report on U.S. Space Programs: Civilian, Commercial, and Military, 13 June 2006. 97
Matthew O’Connell, The Role of Commercial Earth Observation in National Security, 10 May 2006. 98
Peter Marino, Independent Study of the Roles of Commercial Remote Sensing in the Future National System for Geospatial Intelligence, 16 July 2007. 99
Warren Ferster, Profile of U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert B. Murrett, SpaceNews, 19 October 2007. 100
Charles Mondello, ASPRS Ten-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, November 2008. 101
Adam Keith, Euroconsult, Earth Observation Remote Sensing Trends, Briefing for the ACCRES, 7 October 2008.
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The German Space Agency (DLR) reported in September 2009 that future high-
resolution satellite imagery could render aerial photogrammetry obsolete.102 DLR
stated that the Hubble Telescope has a 2.4 meter diameter mirror. This number
matched a comment by a U.S. intelligence official that 2.4 meters is also relevant to
imaging satellites.103
Sentiment in Congress favored pursuit of 1.5 meter diameter aperture for a
commercial satellite, an increase from what is now orbit.104105 An NGA official stated
that the agency was seeking a capability “approaching a quarter meter” in resolution
in a project called EnhancedView.106
Meanwhile, the Director, NRO focused on classified Government imagery programs,
noting that the NRO would launch a classified satellite within 15-18 months, and
bump a commercial satellite launch, if necessary.107
Non-U.S. commercial satellite imagery projects advanced while U.S. Government
insiders and outsiders were fixated on aperture size. An industry observer notes that
developing spacecraft to collect better than one meter resolution imagery is no longer
technologically risky.108 France’s first Pleiades satellite, with an aperture diameter of 0.650
meters, is no match for the technology in U.S. Government or commercial satellites, but French
engineers assessed that the performance of Proto Flight Model optics had outstanding image
quality performance compared to the technical requirement.109 The Charged Coupled Devices
in the imaging sensor were made by a UK company, based on chips made by a U.S. firm known
as QP Semiconductor before it was acquired by the UK company.110
In 2009, the future of commercial imagery seemed bright, including for selective
national security requirements, even though Government experts assessed that commercial
systems do not provide the quality, volume or timeliness of national systems.111
102
Andreas Eckhardt, The Bright Future of High Resolution Satellites, 9 September 2009. 103
Warren Ferster, U.S. Intelligence Official Drops Hint About Next-Gen Spy Sat Capability, SpaceNews, 20 October 2009. 104
Chris Strom, Hill Sends Mixed Signals to Imagery Firms, Government Executive.com. 13 October 2009. 105
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010, Senate Committee on Armed Services, 2 July 2009. 106
Turner Brinton, NGA to Seek Higher Resolution Commercial Satellite Imagery, SpaceNews, 25 September 2009. 107
Colin Clark, NRO Pledges on Budget Spy Sats, DoD Buzz, 21 October 2009. 108
Bill Sweetman, Imaging from Space, Jane’s International Defense Review, 4 April 2007. 109
Catherine Gaudin-Delrieu, The High Resolution Optical Instruments for the Pleiades HR Earth Observation Satellites, Thalesaleniaspace.com, 2008. 110
http://www.e2v.com/news. 25 March 2009. 111
Space Posture Review, Interim Report, 2009.
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The deputy director of NGA indicated that the agency expected to increase use of
both domestic and foreign commercial imagery, particularly in the next five to seven
years.112
In a 3rd Quarter 2009 results conference call with investors and customers, the
GeoEye CEO stated that the worldwide demand for both surveillance and change
monitoring imagery is recession resistant.113 He termed this capability a highly
coveted tool. DigitalGlobe also reported strong results for the Quarter.114
Euroconsult reported that commercial satellite data sales would top $1 billion for
2009, and quadruple in the coming decade.115 GeoEye projected that 2010 revenue
would increase 12 to 16 percent.116
In Germany, DLR had designed a fleet of three 0.5 meter resolution optical satellites
called HiROS and was looking for partners on this program. A payload related to HiROS was
built for South Korea’s Kompsat-3 satellite scheduled to launch in 2011 on a Japanese
rocket.117118119120 Frost & Sullivan reported that the global remote sensing industry, including
imagery, software and value-added services could grow to $8.34 billion by 2010.121
2001 – 2009 Policy, Regulatory, and Fiscal Framework
The success and increased sales projections for the commercial satellite imagery
industry was related, in part, to a policy stimulus by the President George W. Bush
administration that took office in January 2001. Forward-leaning policy and regulation,
however, was no match for the impact on industry created by the flood of post-9/11 funds
appropriated by Congress. Defense outlays have doubled in the last ten years, from $300
billion in FY01 to over $700 billion projected for FY11.122 In September 2009, the Director of
National Intelligence stated that overall spending on intelligence budget is $75 billion year.123124
112
Tom Marlowe, Worldwide Imagery, Geospatial Intelligence Forum, June 2009. 113
GeoEye, Inc. Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript, 10 November 2009. 114
Space News Staff, DigitalGlobe Raises Outlook on Strong 3Q Results, SpaceNews, 13 November 2009. 115
Euroconsult press release, 3 September 2009. 116
Peter B. deSelding, GeoEye Reports Sharply Higher Earnings, 11 November 2009. 117
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Eyes Teaming with Industry for Its Own Optical Satellite System, SpaceNews, 19 October 2009. 118
Mitsubishi to Launch Korea’s Kompsat-3, www.asmmag.com/news/mitsubishi, 14 January 2009. 119
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries News Release No. 1270, MHI Receives Order for Launch Services of Korea Multipurpose Satellite-3, 12 January 2009. 120
Wikipedia, H-IIA, November 2010. 121
A New Age in Digital Satellite Imagery, Satmagazine.com, October 2009. 122
Department of Defense. FY 2011 Defense Budget, February 2010. 123
Dennis C. Blair, ODNI Transcript of Conference Call on 2009 National Intelligence Strategy, 15 September 2009.
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This was up from the aggregate intelligence budget of $26.7 billion announced by the Director
of Central Intelligence in March 1998.125
Since it is a virtual custom for Presidents to put their own stamp on space-related
policies, in May 2002 the Bush White House began their review.126 The review included the
policy on commercial remote sensing and foreign access to U.S. remote sensing capabilities.127
The President signed this guidance just three weeks after the Director of Central Intelligence
wrote to the Director of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency about commercial
imagery.128129130131
“It is the policy of the Intelligence Community to use commercial space imagery to
the greatest extent feasible.”
“My goal in establishing this policy is to stimulate, as quickly as possible, and
maintain, for the foreseeable future, a robust US commercial space industry.”
Three months after the President’s guidance, the Department of Commerce held the
first meeting of the Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing (ACCRES).132133 The
ACCRES was set up for Commerce to obtain a broad range of input from government, industry,
and the non-profit sector regarding licensing issues for commercial remote sensing. During the
meeting, the Department of Commerce reported that 18 licenses had thus far been granted for
41 satellites representing about $2 billion in investment. Nonetheless, according to the
minutes of the meeting, the first two questions posed by the Chairman to the Committee
involved U.S. leadership in the field.
“How can [Commerce] license U.S. systems to compete effectively with new,
advanced foreign systems?”
124
Walter Pincus, DNI Cites $75 Billion Intelligence Tab, The Washington Post, 17 September 2009. 125
CIA Press Release, Disclosure of the Aggregate Intelligence Budget for FY98, 20 March 1998. 126
The White House. Space Policy Review, Draft National Security Presidential Directive, 8 May 2002. 127
The White House, National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-15, 28 June 2002. 128
George J. Tenet to Director, National Imagery and Mapping Agency, 7 June 2002. 129
James Risen, CIA Instructs Spy Agencies to Use More Commercial Imagery, The New York Times, 26 June 2002 130
NextView Will Provide the Vision and Solutions for New US Policy on Commercial Imagery, NIMA Pathfinder, July/August 2003. 131
CIA Chief Orders Agencies to Rely on Private Satellites, International Herald Tribune, 27 June 2002. 132
Department of Commerce. Charter of the Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing, amended 3 September 2004. 133
Department of Commerce. ACCRES Meeting Minutes, 30 September 2002.
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“How can [Commerce], working with other USG agencies and foreign governments,
help facilitate a better international business environment for U.S. commercial
remote sensing firms?”
In April 2003, the White House issued another policy on commercial remote sensing.134
This policy amplified the desire of the Government to help make U.S. commercial remote
sensing more competitive in the global market. Key goals are to:
“Rely to the maximum practical extent on U.S. commercial remote sensing
capabilities for filling imagery and geospatial needs for both national security and
civil agencies.”
“Enable industry to compete successfully as a provider of remote sensing capabilities
for foreign governments and foreign commercial users…”
The policies, guidance and injection of about $1 billion in Government funds spurred a
major advance in U.S. commercial satellite imagery. NGA announced in September 2004 that it
awarded a second NextView contract to then-ORBIMAGE, Inc. (now GeoEye), for about $500
million.135 This followed the September 2003 award to DigitalGlobe for a similar amount, and
hundreds of millions spent on data from pre-2003 activity known as ClearView. According to
NGA, the 2004 award would give the agency “assured availability” of 0.5m resolution imagery.
While Government money flowed to industry, the regulatory process continued. In
2004, according to the Department of Commerce, the average processing time for commercial
operating license applications submitted since the 2000 interagency MOU was 234 days.136
Making decisions about “precedent setting” license applications – such as granting a license for
a commercial 0.25m instead of a 0.5m resolution system -- was the reason for review taking
almost twice as long as specified in the MOU. From mid-2005 to mid-2006, according to
ACCRES meeting minutes, the U.S. Government still on average needed about 200 days to
review such license requests.137 The number of licenses issued, however, and overall value of
investment in earth observation satellites continued to increase. As of May 2006, 26 licenses
had been granted with a system investment valued at $3.5 billion.138
As is custom in the United States, space policies are revised, updated and reissued to
adapt to changing situations. In 2006, President Bush issued a comprehensive National Space
134
The White House. National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-27, 25 April 2003. 135
NGA Media Release, NGA Awards NextView Second Vendor Agreement, NGA-04-04, 30 September 2004. 136
Department of Commerce. NOAA Briefing for ACCRES, 27 August 2004. 137
Department of Commerce, ACCRES Meeting Minutes, 12 September 2006. 138
Kay Weston, Department of Commerce, The Economics of Data Policy, 10 May 2006.
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Policy.139 He did so only four months after the Department of Commerce issued its most recent
“Final Rule” on licensing private remote sensing systems, 15 CFR 960.140 Together with the
1992 law, the 2006 version of the regulations are the key guiding documents for commercial
earth observation operators. Current policy, consistent over the last 30 years, is that the
United States is “committed to encouraging and facilitating a growing and entrepreneurial U.S.
commercial space sector.”
A key goal in 2006 National Space Policy was to “Enable a dynamic, globally competitive
domestic commercial space sector in order to promote innovation, strengthen U.S. leadership,
and protect national, homeland and economic security.” The United States was not leading,
however, with regard to space-based commercial radar imaging systems. Although the
Government granted a 1 meter resolution radar imaging license in 2000, the licensee was not
authorized to sell better than 3 meter resolution imagery. Years passed while non-U.S.
suppliers improved their capabilities. For example, the German Space Agency (DLR), and a
German company (Infoterra GmbH) briefed the ACCRES on 20 September 2007 on Germany’s
pending satellite data security law, and the status of TerraSAR-X just launched in June. The
first point in the Infoterra briefing was that TerraSAR-X is a “Market-driven system using
innovative technology.”141 The first system characteristic listed was “1 meter imagery.” The
briefing was given two years before the 15th ACCRES meeting, when the Department of
Commerce announced that a license had been granted to the Northrop Grumman to operate a
radar imaging satellite capable of generating one-meter resolution imagery for commercial
sale.142143
U.S. Government licensing of high resolution commercial radar satellite imagery lagged
compared with the pace for licensing optical systems (see text box below). Concerns over what
adversaries might be able to do with all-weather, day-night imagery were magnified after 9/11
due to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. No one knew how the wars would turn
out, and reports of U.S. military casualties filled the airwaves. Companies such as Halliburton
were seen as profiting from the war,144 and there was no appetite in the Government to give an
adversary access to radar imagery just to support a company’s bottom line. Moreover, caution
in licensing seemed to make sense due to assertions that radar imagery processed on the
ground results in better resolution than a system is designed to collect, regardless of analysis by
Sandia National Laboratories indicating this is not possible. Image enhancement techniques to
139
The White House. Presidential Decision Directive 49 / PDD-49, 31 August 2006. 140
Federal Register, Vol. 71, Final Rule on Licensing of Private Land Remote Sensing Space Systems, 25 April 2006. 141
Department of Commerce, ACCRES Meeting Minutes, 20 September 2007. 142
Department of Commerce, ACCRES Meeting Minutes, 8 October 2009; Trinidad Private Remote Sensing License Public Summary, 2 October 2009; www.space.commerce.gov/news/2009 143
Turner Brinton, U.S. Loosens Restrictions on Commercial Radar Satellites, SpaceNews, 8 October 2009. 144
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/news/waxman_120904.html, 9 December 2004.
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make a scene “better looking” do not equate to increased resolution. Coupled with doubt over
the commercial viability of commercial radar satellites, and concern over imagery proliferation
with software to manipulate the data, there was little incentive to seize a leading global role in
fielding such satellites. Although Google Earth was not released until June 2005, a tool called
Keyhole Earthviewer to help users better view imagery was released in June 2001.
In late 2009, the Director, NGA credited operational success in his agency to various
factors, including arrangements with commercial and international space providers.145 His
agency was well aware that foreign radar satellites were becoming available and could have
immense value.146 He said that success in geospatial intelligence hinges on moving toward an
integrated, sensor-neutral architecture. Contracts were awarded by NGA for commercial radar
imagery, valued up to $85 million each, from suppliers deriving data from three kinds of
satellites, one each made in Canada, Germany and Italy.147148 An NGA study of TerraSAR-X
showed that it had high accuracy, consistent with the advertised performance.149150151 In May
2010, however, one of the contractors reported “sluggish” sales to the U.S. Government.152 It is
not unusual to evaluate non-U.S. data for relevance and utility, and buy it as needed. The
former U.S. Defense Mapping Agency ordered test images in 1991 from a Soviet radar
satellite,153 and in the late 1990s the National Imagery and Mapping Agency assessed 48
Radarsat-1 images.154
There was no contract for Northrop Grumman, even though it had just received a
license to operate a commercial radar satellite called Trinidad based on a satellite made in
Israel.155 The Israelis announced willingness to export such a system in 2005.156 Northrop
Grumman stated that Trinidad could provide access four times per day to mid-latitude targets,
145
Robert B. Murrett, Comments at Strategic Space Symposium, www.strategicspacesymposium.org/media. 4 November 2009. 146
Michael Hales, Foreign SAR Satellites on the Rise, Earth Imaging Journal, January 2008. 147
Turner Brinton, NGA Solicits Proposals for Commercial Radar Imagery, SpaceNews, 11 September 2009. 148
NGA News Release. NGA Awards Contracts for Commercial Satellite Radar Imagery, Data, and Downlink Services, Public Release Number 09-12, 29 December 2009. 149
Infoterra Press Release, TerraSAR-X performance confirmed by NGA, 12 March 2009. 150
www.geoconnexion.com, TerraSAR-X performance confirmed by NGA, 12 March 2009. 151
EADS Astrium press release, TerraSAR-X marks two successful year in orbit, 15 June 2009. 152
Peter B. deSelding, Canada’s MDA Sees Business Case for In-Orbit Servicing, SpaceNews, 6 May 2010. 153
Aviation Week and Space Technology, 1 July 1991. 154
James Vrabel and Jon Leachtenauer, Civil and Commercial Applications Project for Satellite Imaging Systems, undated. 155
Stew Magnuson, Israel Pushes New Satellite as Solution to U.S. Space Radar Needs, National Defense Magazine, January 2010. 156
Barbara Opall-Rome, Israel Unveils Newest Spy Satellite for Export Market, SpaceNews, 13 June 2005.
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would use flexible beam control techniques and offer rapid data downlink to transportable
terminals.157
157
Northrop Grumman, Trinidad Private Remote Sensing License Public Summary, 2 October 2009.
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158
David Hughes, Radarsat Delivers First SAR Image, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1 January 1996. 159
Warren Ferster, DoD Imperils Private Radar Satellites, SpaceNews, 24 November 1997. 160
Rolf-Peter Oesberge, Germany’s International Space Commitment, Bonn Luft und Raumfahrt, October 1997. 161
Warren Ferster, RDL Nabs First License For U.S. Radar Satellite, SpaceNews, June 1998. 162
Warren Ferster, U.S. Firms Demand Parity To Radarsat 2, SpaceNews, 9 November 1998. 163
Government of Canada News Release, Canada to Control Imaging Satellites, 9 June 1999. 164
NIMA, Civil and Commercial Applications Project: Phase I (Radarsat) Final Report, December 1999. 165
Department of Commerce, Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing Program, 18 October 2006. 166
Sandia National Laboratories, Superresolution and Synthetic Aperture Radar, May 2001. 167
Wikipedia, Google Earth, November 2010. 168
DLR, TerraSAR-X Mission, undated.
Licensing of High-Resolution Commercial Radar Imaging Satellites
These are selected key points regarding U.S. Government process, foreign technical developments, and
U.S. business interests that are the basis on why there is no current operational U.S. commercial radar satellite.
November 1995: Canada’s Radarsat 1 collects first image.158 The system was capable of collecting 10-meter
resolution data. Commercial sale of the data was planned for February 1996.
November 1997: Citing national security concerns, DoD opposes commercial sale of radar satellite imagery better
than 5-meter resolution.159 Based on two successful 1994 flights of the X-SAR radar sensor, Germany held a
leading technical capability with good prospects for commercial use.160
June – November 1998: A U.S. company obtains a license to operate a 1-meter resolution commercial radar
satellite, but data sold could not be better than 5-meters.161 U.S. companies press for relief on the resolution limit
due to Canada’s future Radarsat 2 3-meter system.162
June – December 1999: The Government of Canada agrees with the United States that controls on commercial
imaging satellites are needed.163 An evaluation by NIMA finds that Radarsat 1 imagery can be used for some
military tasks, such as detecting the presence of large aircraft (e.g., bombers).164
November 2000: A second U.S. company obtains a license to operate a commercial radar satellite, but resolution
restrictions apply. Three-meter resolution imagery eventually is allowed for sale for parity with Canada.165
May 2001 – June 2001: A report by Sandia National Laboratories indicates that data from a radar satellite cannot
be processed on the ground to provide better resolution than the design specifications of the satellite.166 First
release of Keyhole Earthviewer; after several updates, the product was released in June 2005 as Google Earth.167
September 2001: 9/11 terrorist attack on United States. Project start by Germany for a future 1-meter
resolution radar satellite called TerraSAR-X.168
April 2003: United States attacks Iraq.
2004 – 2005: The Government considers, but does not issue a 1-meter commercial radar satellite license.
June – December 2007: TerraSAR-X is launched; Italy’s COSMO-Skymed 1 is launched. These launches are
followed in December by Radarsat-2, and COSMO-Skymed 2.
October 2009: Department of Commerce authorizes commercial sale of 1-meter resolution radar imagery.
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2010: More White House Policy and Commercial Imagery Developments
President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. He ordered a review of national
space policy known as Presidential Study Directive 3. According to the White House Director of
Space Policy at a space-based ISR conference on 28 October 2009, U.S. space policies going
back decades are sound, but there were problems regarding implementation.169 The common
thread in previous policies is to increase U.S. competitiveness, and strengthen the industrial
base. Citing low tolerance for risk, he added that the tendency in the United States is to study
and restudy the problems. He advised that the U.S. needs to learn by building and operating
space systems, not just study what systems to have. An announcement on a new policy was
expected in April 2010.170 The policy was issued on 28 June.171
The commercial satellite imagery industry’s results and outlook have been positive in
2010. DigitalGlobe’s new WorldView-2 satellite reached full operational capability in
January.172 DigitalGlobe is challenging users in a contest to come up with new ways to use the
satellite’s 8-band multispectral capability.173 GeoEye announced that it selected Lockheed
Martin to build the future GeoEye-2 satellite that would have improved resolution when the
satellite is launched as soon as the end of 2012.174 The satellite’s 1.1m diameter aperture flown
in a 500km orbit would support collecting better resolution imagery than GeoEye-1’s 0.41
quality, a capability supported by the Senate Armed Services Committee.175176177 With GeoEye-
2 in space, the company estimates that in 2013 it would have about 40 percent of the overall
collection capacity by very high resolution color commercial imagery satellites. DigitalGlobe
would have about 20 percent (absent another WorldView-2 type satellite), and France would
have a similar amount from two forthcoming Pleiades satellites.178 Turkey’s Gokturk satellite
scheduled for launch in 2013, similar to Pleaides, would provide another fraction of high
resolution coverage.179
The way ahead for commercial satellite imagery is a largely a matter of available U.S.
Government funding and capability needed by the military. National space policy likely will
remain steady because the Constitution of the United States assures that President Obama’s
169
Peter Marquez, Comments at Space-Based ISR Conference, Alexandria, Virginia, 28 October 2009. 170
SpaceNews, 15 January 2010; SpaceNews, 11 March 2010. 171
The White House, National Space Policy of the United States of America. 28 June 2010. 172
DigitalGlobe Press Release, WorldView-2 Reaches Full Operational Capability on Schedule, 4 January 2010. 173
www.satnews.com, 29 July 2010. 174
GeoEye News Release, GeoEye Selects Lockheed Martin to Begin Engineering and Manufacturing of GeoEye-2, 11 March 2010. 175
GeoEye Investor Presentation at J.P. Morgan Global Technology Conference, May 2010. 176
Mark Brender, Industry Interview, Geospatial Intelligence Forum, June 2009. 177
James Mazol, Considering the FY2010 National Security Space Budget, George C. Marshall Institute, July 2009. 178
Bill Shuster, GeoEye Briefing at International Commercial Remote Sensing Symposium, March 2010. 179
Peter B. deSelding, Thales Alenia Begins Work on Turkish Imaging Satellite, SpaceNews, 7 September 2010.
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Space Policy will remain in effect through 2012 or 2016, depending on election results.180 Since
the Policy gives latitude for both the Secretary of Defense and Director of National Intelligence
to procure satellites, who buys what is an important factor.
The Secretary of Defense stated in January 2009 that his priority on defense
procurement is to pursue greater quantities of systems that provide the “75
percent” solution instead of smaller quantities of “99 percent” exquisite systems.181
This aligns with the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) that states DoD “can
no longer afford the quixotic pursuit of high-tech perfection that incurs
unacceptable cost and risk.”182 The Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition
indicates that procurement of capabilities for contingency operations must be
accelerated.183
Regarding the use of space assets, the QDR indicates that DoD “will explore
opportunities to leverage growing international and commercial expertise to
enhance U.S. capabilities and reduce the vulnerability of space systems.”184
The Director, NGA considers the use of commercial imagery to be an opportunity
because military missions place a very strong emphasis on flexibility supported with
unclassified products.185
Observers of the commercial satellite imagery industry expect growth over the next few
years. According to Northern Sky Research at the end of 2009, the market for data from such
satellites should grow to $2.2 billion in 2018.186 In April 2010, a study by Forecast International
found that government and military agencies are the leading users of the data.187
180
The Constitution of the United States of America, XXII Amendment, 27 February 1951. 181
Robert M. Gates, Secretary of Defense Statement for the Senate Armed Services Committee, 27 January 2009. 182
Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010. 183
John Reed, Institutionalization Proposed Weapons Buying for Contingency Ops, DoD Buzz, 28 March 2011. 184
Ibid. 185
Robert B. Murrett, Satellite Firms Should See Growth As Need for Imagery Mounts, Defense Daily, 14 July 2010. 186
NSR Press Release, Satellite-Based Earth Observation Market Entering Phase of Impressive Growth, 19 November 2009. 187
Jeffrey Bradford, Government Imagery Needs Drive Remote Sensing Market, www.defenseprocurementnews.com, 12 April 2010.
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188
Ibid. 189
Peter Marino, Independent Study of the Roles of Commercial Remote Sensing, 16 July 2007. 190
Richard Best, ISR Acquisition: Issues for Congress, 15 June 2010. 191
ODNI News Release No. 12-09, DNI Blair Announces Plan for the Next Generation of Electro-Optical Satellites, 7 April 2009. 192
Peter B. deSelding, Lockheed Hints a Classified Satellite Order is in the Offing for 2012, SpaceNews, 28 July 2010. 193
Amy Butler, Carter Sets the Table for the Next Supper, Aviation Week Defense Technology International, 4 September 2009. 194
Arianespace Marks a First – Twice -- For Russia, Satnews Daily, 24 November 2009. 195
Peter B. deSelding, Ariane 5 Satellite Launch Boosts French-Led Recon Program, SpaceNews, 18 December 2009. 196
Arianespace Press Release, Arianespace Delivers Helios-2B Into Orbit, 18 December 2009.
2010 Reference Point: Another Space Policy
The Obama Administration’s National Space Policy pledges “strengthened international
collaboration and reinvigorated U.S. leadership.”188 The policy states that a robust and competitive
commercial space sector is vital to continued progress in space. According to the policy, this means
the Government is “…committed to encouraging and facilitating the growth of a U.S. commercial
space sector…that is globally competitive, and advances U.S. leadership…” This includes developing
“…governmental space systems only when it is in the national interest and there is no suitable, cost-
effective U.S. commercial or, as appropriate, foreign commercial service or system that is or will be
available.”
The new policy is consistent with previous White House policies that promoted commercial
space activities, including remote sensing. The policy is silent on the meaning of “national interest”,
but surely it means that the Government always will procure classified national reconnaissance
satellites. According to an expert panel report to NGA and NRO on the role of commercial imagery,
“The U.S. Government cannot rely on or be dependent on any external entity to responsively get
needed data.”189 The national satellites are considered “exquisite”; to the panel and a Congressional
Research Service expert this means they each cost $1 billion or more.190 The DNI stated in 2009 that
these unique, Government-owned satellites would evolve from existing designs and be built by the
National Reconnaissance Office.191 The Lockheed Martin Corporation expects to receive “multibillions
of dollars worth of orders” in 2012 for such satellites.192
The policy charged departments and agencies to identify areas for potential international
cooperation, including Earth science and observation, and geospatial information products and
services. This was consistent with a 2009 comment by the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition,
noting that European products are part of the global industrial base and deserve consideration for
procurement, especially if their items can be procured for less cost.193 He made this point shortly
before the first two Soyuz launchers were delivered to French Guyana, one for the future Pleiades
imaging satellite, and before the successful launch of Helios-2B that refreshed France’s national
classified reconnaissance program.194195196
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In June 2010, Euroconsult released a report that indicates the market for defense and
security use of the imagery data will grow from $735 million in 2009 to $2.6 billion by
2019.197198199200 Defense customers accounted for 62 percent of commercial satellite imagery
data sales in 2009. DoD, according to Euroconsult, is by far the largest investor in defense
earth observation programs.201 According to the MITRE Corporation, NGA’s contracting
method for NextView, which became fully operational in February 2009, was exceptional
because it required a stable industry-Government tie for five or more years.202
The rosy estimates on the future of commercial satellite imagery rest largely on
continued DoD funding. Changes in U.S. Government policy, statute, and regulation would
have less effect because thus far the Government itself is the business case for this commercial
activity. According to NGA, the Obama administration in 2010 urged a strong increase in
unclassified commercial imagery to support deployed forces, i.e., the EnhancedView project
effective through 2020.203
Remote Sensing Technology Developments
Maintaining U.S. Government awareness of global advances, and global industrial ties in
remote sensing technology is essential as long as commercial industry in this sector is
regulated. Changing regulations regarding imagery satellite operations, for example, may not
have much effect if regulators do not understand how the utility of a satellite’s data may be
enhanced when fused with other imagery sources in ground processing systems.
In 1992, when the Land Remote Sensing Act was passed, a Department of Commerce
official noted that lowering the cost of remote sensing satellites and ground processing
equipment would be vital to opening up new markets and attracting investment.204. He argued
that suppliers and users of remote sensing data would benefit most from a market which
includes many buyers and sellers. He added that emerging commercial opportunities would be
exploited by others, if the United States did not do so. Small satellites built by Surrey Satellite
Technology Limited of the United Kingdom (UK) are an example of such competition. SSTL’s
motto is “Changing the economics of space.”
197
Euroconsult, Earth Observation: Defense & Security, World Prospects to 2019, June 2010. 198
Satellite-Based Earth Observation Market to Grow, www.asmmag.com/features, 29 June 2010. 199
Euroconsult Projects Government Earth Observation Market to Reach $2.6 Billion in 2019, www.satellitemarkets.com, 16 June 2010. 200
Adam Keith, Euroconsult, Intel…Growing Government Demand for Image Intelligence, www.earsc.eu/news, 16 July 2010. 201
Euroconsult, Government Space Markets: World Prospects to 2017, 2008 Edition. 202
The MITRE Corporation, How to Buy Satellite Images by the Thousands, April 2010. 203
NGA Wrapping Up Bid for Next Generation Earth Imaging Capability, Inside the Pentagon, 17 June 2010. 204
Scott N. Pace, Public-Private Sector Collaboration to Demonstrate Advanced Remote Sensing Technologies, 27 October 1992.
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SSTL has been building small satellites for over two decades.205 Licensing for launch and
operation of such satellites is governed by the Outer Space Act of 1986.206 The first British “spy
satellite” called TopSat was revealed in 2002 to cost only about $20 million dollars, but the
resolution did not match commercial U.S. standards.207 Nonetheless, SSTL and its industry
partner QinetQ termed TopSat “revolutionary.”208 When launched in 2005, it was considered
to be on the cutting edge of British innovation.209210 The first images were returned within a
few weeks.211
Reducing the size and weight of satellites is not a new idea. In 1996, a panel of experts
wrote to the Director of Central Intelligence stating that the nation had an opportunity to
create smaller, less expensive satellites. They wrote that satellite cost, in general, is linear with
weight, and that NRO satellites 20 percent of the weight of then-current satellites could still
provide half the capability.212 But, this was only the beginning of the impetus for new solutions.
A German-Israeli joint industry idea funded by the European Commission thought a 12-band,
super-spectral system, weighing less than 200kg, could meet both commercial and scientific
needs, but it was not fielded.213214215 Currently, the U.S. Army Space & Missile Defense
Command has a concept called Kestrel Eye that would provide 1.5 meter resolution imagery
using nanosatellite technology (i.e., 10kg per satellite) directly to individual soldiers.216 An
Army prototype nanosatellite was aboard the first launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket in
December 2010.217
On 20 April 2010, the Department of Commerce granted a license to Skybox Imaging Inc.
for a satellite known as Skysat-1 to collect sub-meter resolution panchromatic and multispectral
images. Although the public summary of the Skybox license does not provide satellite
specifications, the CEO and CTO of the company co-authored a 2008 paper focused on a new
way to achieve low-cost, small imaging satellites. They gained knowledge and experience
working with the Space Systems Development Laboratory at Stanford University, where the
CubeSat concept and program started in 1999.218 They claimed that “With anticipated order-
205
Wikipedia, Surrey Satellite Technology, 2010. 206
Outer Space Act of 1986, www.ukspaceagency.bis.gov.uk. 207
Michael Smith, Britain’s first spy satellite is a cheap option, 25 July 2002. 208
QinetQ Press Release, TopSat, July 2002. 209
QinetQ News Release, Successful first launch for TopSat micro-satellite, 27 October 2005. 210
Andrew Chuter, Experimental UK Satellite Takes Wing, DefenseNews, 7 November 2005. 211
QinetQ News Release, New era of low-cost Earth observation dawns, 19 December 2005. 212
Director of Central Intelligence, Independent Panel Review of Small Satellites, 29 June 1996. 213
B. Penne et al., EKOSAT/DIAMANT and the Earth observation program at OHB-System, 11 September 1994. 214
Amnon Ginati et al., Commercial Earth Observation with Small Satellites at OHB-System, August 1999. 215
Brochure on MSRS / DIAMANT, OHB-System. 216
Brochure by U.S. Army Space & Missile Defense Command, KESTREL EYE, 2010. 217
Army Satellite Success with SpaceX Launch, Satnews Daily, 10 December 2010. 218
CubeSat Concept and Deployer Services, http://directory.eoportal.org/presentations/7053.8502.html.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 39
of-magnitude cost savings compared to current commercial offerings, the lifetime system cost
should represent an extremely attractive proposition to consumers of satellite imagery that
wish to own and operate their own assets.”219 The CTO’s biography claims expertise and
interest in nanosatellites.220 Camera designs for such satellites are advancing.221
While much attention is paid to DigitalGlobe’s and GeoEye’s competitive landscape with
traditional foes in the remote sensing industry (France, Germany, Israel, India, Japan, and South
Korea), a satellite cost and performance battle may be emerging between SSTL and Skybox, or
other possible smallsat suppliers such as Berlin Space Technologies222 or a Japanese consortium
that aims to build microsatellites costing $500,000 to $2,000,000 each.223 Prior to an annual
Mideast conference on space-related issues, the Chairman of SSTL stated that “Small satellites
are at the forefront of space innovation.”224 The goal is to greatly drive down the cost of
satellites for earth observation. The Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has indicated he
would rather own half of four satellites instead of all of two because he could increase coverage
and resistance to attack.225
Technology used in satellite imaging sensors has a direct relationship to the size and
weight of a satellite because the type of sensor impacts the need for power and associated
electronics. There are two kinds of image sensors for digital cameras.226 One type is Charged
Coupled Devices (CCD), and the other is Complimentary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS).227
Because CMOS chips use less power and can be fabricated on a standard silicon production line,
they are less expensive and give great opportunity for weight saving in a sensor and satellite.
CCD technology, on the other hand, has a longer track record.
Astrium engineers wrote in 2005 that the price of a complete imaging function would
be lower using CMOS “…instead of CCD for a great number of space applications.”228 They
added that “…mastering CMOS capabilities is a necessity for a team willing to manufacture a
new generation of optical sensors and instruments.” Experts at Surrey are also working on
219
Andrew Kalman, Adam Reif, Dan Berkenstock, Julian Mann, and James Cutler, MISC—A Novel Approach to Low Cost Imaging Satellites, 2008. 220
www.skyboximaging.com 221
Kashif Gulzar, Camera Design for Pico and Nano Satellite Applications, Masters Thesis, 2010. 222
Berlin Space Technologies, LEOS Platform, Small Satellites Made in Berlin, 2010. 223
Paul Kallender-Umezu, Japan Advances University-led Microsatellite Constellation, SpaceNews, 3 December 2010. 224
Region to benefit from high-tech commercial opportunities in space, www.gssforum.com, 2 February 2011. 225
Dwayne Day, Gum in the Keyhole, www.spacereview.com, 22 June 2009. 226
What is the difference between CCD and CMOS image sensors in a digital camera?, http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cameras, 2010. 227
DALSA Corporation, CCD vs. CMOS, http://www.dalsa.com, 2010. 228
EADS Astrium, The CMOS Breakthrough For Space Optical Detection: Recent Advances and Short Term Perspectives, 13 July 2005.
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using CMOS camera systems for earth observation.229 The UK Space Agency announced in
March 2011 that a CMOS imaging demonstrator will be flying with a UK-designed nano-satellite
in early 2010.230 Although France’s Pleiades satellite will use CCD technology vice CMOS, a U.S.
firm that builds devices for aerospace purposes (QP Semiconductor) was acquired in 2008 by a
UK-headquartered firm known as e2v.231 e2v made the CCDs for the Pleiades sensor. QP
Semiconductor is now known as e2v aerospace & defense inc.232
SSTL also has a low-cost, CCD-type satellite system, first advertised in 2007, offering a
greatly reduced mission cost for high resolution imagery.233 SSTL announced in September
2010 that three satellites, with a combination of high and medium resolution, would be
available for $150 million in one launch by the end of 2013.234 The Chairman of SSTL indicates
that Surrey’s technology has improved and is able to produce 1 meter resolution imagery, but
he also claims SSTL is working on satellites with even better technology.235 Although the British
military is not likely a customer for such satellites due to deep budget cuts, there is export
potential.236237238 A Chinese firm called Beijing Landview Mapping Information Technology Co.
Ltd. (BLMIT) is a candidate because SSTL and BLMIT recently celebrated the 5th anniversary of
operations of a low resolution satellite built by SSTL and sold to BLMIT for $18 million.239240
Export of a more capable system aligns with UK policy to increase trade with China.241242
The newly formed UK Space Agency is taking advantage of SSTL’s capabilities. The
equivalent of roughly one million U.S. dollars has been provided to SSTL to work on a
TechDemoSat, aimed at giving UK space businesses a competitive edge.243244 According to SSTL,
229
http://www.ee.surrey.ac.uk/SSC/research/environments/introduction, 2010. 230
UK Space Agency….UKube-1Passengers Announced, www.satnewsdaily.com, 23 March 2011. 231
Jessica Broom, e2v News Items, 25 March 2009. 232
QP Semiconductor now part of e2v aerospace and defense inc. BusinessWire, 22 October 2010. 233
M. Cutter, P. Davies, A. Baker, M. Sweeting, A High Performance EO small satellite platform and optical sensor suite, 27 May 2010. 234
Jonathan Amos, Surrey satellite unveils high-resolution space project, BBC News, 27 September 2010. 235
Ellie Zolfagharifard, Sir Martin Sweeting, Chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology, theEngineer, 1 November 2010. 236
D-day for Defence in 36 billion pound crisis, http://www.Timesonline.co.uk, 15 December 2009. 237
Anthony Faiola, British military faces deep cuts, The Washington Post, 20 October 2010. 238
Anthony Failoa, Britain moves to slash deficit, The Washington Post, 21 October 2010. 239
Dr. Mike Cutter et al, A High Performance EO Small Satellite Platform (SSTL-300), 2010. 240
UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK Embassy to China Highlights Beijing-1 Small Satellite’s 5 th
Anniversary Celebration Event, http://ukinchina.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=PressR&id=23097449, 26 October 2010. 241
UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, PM trumpets UK-China Partners for Growth potential, http://ukinchina.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=PressR&id=29638682, 9 November 2010. 242
UK Government, PM leads largest ever trade delegation to China, http://number10.gov/uk/news/latest- news/2010/11/pm-leads, 9 November 2010. 243
UK Space Agency News Release, UK Space Agency welcomes start of TechDemoSat design program, 18 October 2010. 244
Jonathan Amos, Satellite to demonstrate UK tech, BBC News, 18 October 2010.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 41
the demonstration satellite is a response to the Space Agency’s Innovation and Growth
Strategy.245 SSTL is seeking the “business sweet spot” for small satellites.246
What may be of more concern to U.S. regulators than SSTL capabilities is the fact that
Astrium bought SSTL, giving Astrium control of a small satellite production line, including a
satellite advertised as an agile, sub-meter imaging system.247248 This means Astrium has the
ability to produce a range of high, medium, and low resolution remote sensing satellites.
Within days of Astrium’s acquisition of SSTL, the company announced it could field a sub-meter
resolution mapping satellite for $70 million USD, far less than the cost of a conventional
spacecraft.249 Astrium later signed a contract for SpaceX launch services because SSTL has
several missions weighing less than 500kg that need to be launched in coming years.250 The list
price for the Falcon 1 launcher was $10.9 million through October 2010. Constellations of
satellites may be the way of the future, but large satellites that require an expensive launcher
dampen prospects for economic viability. This should give Astrium / SSTL an advantage.
Funding for space-related activities in the UK is now centralized, and Astrium led an
industrial consortium to create the new International Space Innovation Centre in the
UK.251252253 Astrium’s revenue increased 11 percent in 2009.254 The British government
announced in March 2010 that it would centralize all civil space funding.255 Whether Britain
deploys a national remote sensing capability called Skysight is uncertain, but SSTL believes
investments in this sector pay back many times over.256257258 Regardless of a UK government
commitment, and even if the satellites are not exported as a package to China, SSTL’s three
one-meter resolution satellites launched in 2013 would be part of its Disaster Monitoring
Constellation International Imaging (DMCii) business unit, where satellite imaging capacity is
leased to different international customers.259260 Although the satellites have U.S.-made ITAR
245
SSTL News Release, SSTL’s TechDemoSat-1 to demonstrate UK innovation in space, October 2010. 246
From Micro to Nano…Seeking the Business Sweet Spot, www.satmagazine.com, January 2011. 247
Astrium buys up Surrey Satellite, http://bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7826301.stm, 13 January 2009. 248
SSTL Description of SSTL 300 S1, 2010. 249
Jonathan Amos, UK sat firm plans low cost mapper, BBC News, 22 January 2009. 250
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium to Market SpaceX Falcon 1 Launches in Europe, SpaceNews, 9 September 2010. 251
SatNews Daily, Satellites Industry Now Has a New Exec Agency, 13 December 2009. 252
Britain Replacing BNSC with New National Space Agency, SpaceNews, 11 December 2009. 253
Pallab Ghosh, UK to open earth observation hub, BBC News, 21 July 2010. 254
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium 2009 Revenue Up Despite Galileo Loss, SpaceNews, 19 January 2010. 255
Peter B. deSelding, New Space Agency to Centralize British Space Spending, SpaceNews, 23 March 2010. 256
Douglas Barrie, Threat to MilSpace Funding Concerns UK, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 16 March 2009. 257
Jonathan Amos, UK mulls sovereign Earth observing satellite service, BBC News, 22 July 2010. 258
Jonathan Amos, How public investments in space can pay back, www.bbc.co.uk, 28 September 2010. 259
UK company plans survey satellite fleet, EOmag, September 2010. 260
Wikipedia, Disaster Monitoring Constellation, November 2010.
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parts, DMCii does not consider ITAR an issue because SSTL is supplying hardware to a UK-based
service company, not others.261
Monitoring technology developments on the ground is also critical because such
developments directly affect user needs and interests. Demand for commercial imagery has
risen, in part due to technologies like Google Earth that require the data for a host of restricted
and public purposes, including at NGA.262 The integration of commercial imagery with GPS
technologies, including cell phones, is pushing the private sector to invent new innovative ways
of integrating and packaging data. Trimble Navigation Ltd., for example, has created
technology that enables users to link the “where” and “when” in a rapid orthoimage product.263
Trimble is also forging a path in a joint venture with the Russians on GLONASS that likely would
result in even stronger prospects for fusion of imagery and navigation data.264265 A global race
may be on to provide satellite-supported location-based services.266267268269
Experts who assess and forecast technical advances indicate a move toward “ubiquitous
geo-positioning”, i.e., the integration of GPS into all aspects of geospatial technology. These
experts also use terminology such as “beyond fusion”, “participatory sensing” and “visual
analytics” as the underlying techniques that optimize human use of spatial data.270 NGA seeks
experts in a visiting scientists program to advance knowledge with regard to large and complex
geospatial data sets, spatial statistics, data mining and quantitative methods regarding human
geography.271
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye know that coming up with new ways for users to access and
manipulate commercial imagery is important.272 DigitalGlobe advertises its ImageConnect
service as a way to retrieve via the Internet GIS-ready imagery from DigitalGlobe’s archive.273
Pixel Factory by Infoterra of France is marketed as a multi-source “industrial solution” because
261
DMC International Imaging, DMC3 Constellation, August 2010. 262
James Rosen, Spy Agency Amends No-Bid Contract Notice, But Google Still Favored, www.foxnews.com, 24 August 2010. 263
Trimble, Tactical mapping imagery: when you need to know where…and when, Imaging Notes, Vol. 25, No. 4, Fall 2010. 264
Peter B. deSelding, Trimble to Help Market GLONASS Equipment, SpaceNews, 28 May 2010. 265
Glonass Gets the Putin Push, www.satnews.com, 16 February 2010. 266
Jonathan Amos, UK over reliant on GPS signals, engineers ward, www.bbc.co.uk, 7 March 2011. 267
Marc Boucher, COM DEV Financial Results See Military Segment Rise but Civil and Commercial Segments Decline, http://spaceref.ca, 25 March 2011. 268
Peter B. deSelding, China and Europe Still at Odds Over Navigation Spectrum, SpaceNews, 4 March 2011. 269
Peter B. deSelding, Neck & Neck Race to Be First in Tracking Ships from Space, SpaceNews, 25 March 2011. 270
The National Academies Press, New Research Directions for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, May 2010. 271
NGA. Visiting Scientist Fellowship Program, http://jobs.phds.org, 25 February 2011. 272
Elevating Insight Three Powerful Ways, Earth Imaging Journal, September / October 2010. 273
ImageConnect. www.digitalglobe.com. 2010.
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it can integrate many different sources.274 Each source has been added one by one, but the
cumulative effect of a “brick by brick” approach in Pixel Factory development could be
detrimental to the two U.S. companies. Pixel Factory software can be acquired with a license,
reportedly costing $6.5 to $8 millon.275 Google became a licensee in 2009.
The importance of providing multi-source solutions and service is increasing. SPOT
Image and Infoterra announced in October 2010 that they are joining forces and will be named
Astrium GEO-Information Services.276 The company indicates that the “new look” will result in
an expanded offering of GEO-Information and services.277 The changes could be bold. In 1998,
the French first sold a 5-meter resolution satellite in SE Asia,278 but now a customer need not
buy a satellite because customer-controlled tasking of the upcoming Pleiades satellites is
possible. The service is called Pleiades Direct Tasking. Nonetheless, Astrium will continue to
export imagery satellites. An Astrium official indicates that technology transfer accounts for 20
percent of the value of a satellite export, but this is acceptable now that U.S. competitors are
more active on a global basis.279
Rapid changes in remote sensing are global. In India, for example, growth of the
geospatial market through 2014 is expected to be greater than in the rest of the world.280 The
industry plays a major role in national planning and development. Moreover, the applications
for use of location-based information from navigation satellites and satellite imagery could go
well beyond what experts thought in the late 1990s.281 A French firm specializing in maritime
tracking services, for example, purchased a Spanish imagery company to blend sources and
increase revenue.282 China has unveiled a mapping service similar to Google Earth.283
The NGA is well aware of the need for new approaches regarding access to commercial
geospatial information. A project called Rapid Delivery of Geospatial Intelligence (RDOG) is
designed to provide a mixture of on-line services and off-line products to meet U.S. military,
first responder, and humanitarian needs.284 The new Director, NGA wants to “fundamentally
274
Infoterra, Pixel Factory, 2010. 275
Adam Baddeley, Affordable Military Space, Asian Military Review, August 2009. 276
SPOT Image Corporation. SPOTLight, October 2010. 277
SPOT Image: From 3D to Services, www.asmmag.com, 30 May 2010. 278
Peter B. deSelding, Matra Makes Inroads in Asian Satellite Market, SpaceNews, 6 October 1997. 279
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium Views Technology Transfer as a Cost of Winning Business, SpaceNews, 26 November 2010. 280
India on a roll, Geospatial World, September 2010. 281
Katherine McIntire Peters, Space Wars, Government Executive, April 1998. 282
Peter B. deSelding, CLS Continues Expansion with Purchase of Spanish Radar Imagery Firm, SpaceNews, 2 September 2010. 283
China Unveils Mapping Service Similar to Google Earth, redOrbit, 22 October 2010. 284
DigitalGlobe, Inc. Rapid Delivery of Online Geospatial-Intelligence (RDOG), 2010.
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change the users’ experience” by creating an apps store to allow access to data at soldier
level.285286
With regard to commercial radar imagery, a year-long Joint Capabilities Test
Demonstration is in progress and intended to blend together various sources of imagery.287
According to NGA, commercial radar imagery is valuable for a range of defense, intelligence,
and humanitarian missions.288 International SAR systems are also a factor in a study of radar
imaging options led by the Office of the DNI.289
2020 Future One: U.S. Commercial Satellite Imagery is a Thriving Business
In this alternative future, U.S. companies count on a steady stream of Government
funding, and also increase sales to commercial clients. DigitalGlobe and GeoEye know statistics
such as the ASPRS 2008 survey which found that polled users of better than 0.5m resolution
imagery said they needed better quality; in contrast, users of 0.5m and lesser quality imagery
said the resolution of data used was better than needed.290 The companies seize on a
statement by the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that 90 percent of the military’s
imaging needs can be met by commercial satellites,291 and take advantage of a debt reduction
task force recommendation to make “greater use of commercial imagery” as a way for the
nation to “transition to less expensive satellite imagery.”292
When all funding options are exercised, NGA’s EnhancedView funding stream to
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye from 2010 – 2020 averages $730 million per year, one hundred times
more than NGA spent on commercial imagery in Fiscal Year 1999. GeoEye gained $337 million
in Government funding to build the GeoEye-2 satellite,293 and has a long run of success after
being named in 2010 by Fortune Magazine as one of the 100 fastest growing companies,294 and
Earth Observation Operator of the Year by Euroconsult.295 Although overall U.S. defense
spending declines due to reduced funding for Overseas Contingency Operations, such as
285
Colin Clark, NGA Touts App Store Idea, www.dodbuzz.com, 2 November 2010. 286
Peter B. deSelding, NGA Looking at Amazon and Apple for Imagery Distribution Ideas, SpaceNews, 3 November 2010. 287
NGA, Commercial Radar Imagery Demonstration Support, www.fbo.gov, 21 September 2010. 288
Peter Buxbaum, SAR Boosts Imagery Power, Geospatial Intelligence Forum, Volume 8, March 2010. 289
Turner Brinton, ODNI Commissions Study of Radar Imaging Options, SpaceNews, 3 November 2010. 290
http://www.asprs.org/publications/pers/2008/journal/november/highlight2.pdf, 2008 291
Dwayne Day, Space policy 101: military space 2009, www.spacereview.com, 15 June 2009. 292
Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin, Reviving the Economy, Cutting Spending and Debt, and Creating a Simple, Pro- Growth Tax System, November 2010. 293
Peter B. deSelding, NGA to Contribute $337 Million to GeoEye’s Next Satellite, SpaceNews, 10 August 2010. 294
GeoEye…A Member of the Exclusive FORTUNE 100 Club, www.satenews.com, 3 September 2010. 295
GeoEye, Inc. has been named Earth Observation Operator of the Year by Euroconsult, www.satnews.com, 9 September 2009.
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conflict in Afghanistan, the base DoD budget remains favorable for new procurement
opportunities.296
In 2009, the U.S. Government provided 75 percent of revenue for DigitalGlobe.297298 In
2010, NGA accounted for 62.2 percent of the company’s revenue.299 Global defense and
intelligence customers accounted for almost 82 percent in 2009 and 78 percent in 2010.
Revenue ratios for GeoEye also favor defense and intelligence customers.
Commercial revenue, flat for DigitalGlobe for 2007-2009, turns upward due to the
company’s aggressive push to provide “business intelligence” as a service, thereby
helping clients shape decision space.300 DigitalGlobe is successful at turning space-
based monitoring into insight for clients, and providing “location based intelligence”,
i.e., private sector GEOINT. The company expected in 2010 that revenue from its
commercial segment would at least double and perhaps triple by 2015.301 In
February 2011, the company said it expects 25 percent growth in commercial sales
for the year.302 Promoting web and cloud services is vital for success.303
GeoEye also uses the construct of providing “insight” for clients, not just image data.
GeoEye still relies on large sums from the U.S. Government (67 percent in 2009; 77
percent for April – June 2010), but the company takes advantage of the convergence
of navigation and social networking technologies with imagery to feed a large
demand for imagery information products.304305 GeoEye sees a growing and
diversified customer base as powerful search engines increase public awareness of
commercial imagery.306 The earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan provides an
opportunity to showcase commercial imagery capability,307 just as the imagery
played a role regarding Hurricane Katrina in 2005.308
296
Scott Sacknoff, White House’s Proposed FY-2012 Defense Budget Creates Opportunities for Investors, www.seekingalpha.com, 8 March 2011. 297
Peter B. deSelding, With U.S. Contracts Delayed, DigitalGlobe Looks Elsewhere for 2010 Growth, SpaceNews, 25 February 2010. 298
DigitalGlobe, Inc., 2009 Annual Report, U.S. Security and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, 24 February 2010. 299
DigitalGlobe, Inc. 2010 Annual Report, U.S. Security and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, February 2011. 300
John Oechsle, DigitalGlobe, Inc., Critical Information and Insight: The Key to Growth, 2010. 301
Peter B. deSelding, DigitalGlobe Expects Revenue to More Than Double Within 5 Years, SpaceNews, 24 September 2010. 302
Peter B. deSelding, DigitalGlobe Expects 25 Percent Commercial Sales Growth in 2011, SpaceNews, 1 March 2011. 303
DigitalGlobe, Inc. Cloud Services 3.0, 2010. 304
GeoEye, Inc., 2009 Annual Report, U.S. Security and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, 12 March 2010. 305
Peter B. deSelding, NGA to Contribute $377 Million to GeoEye’s Next Satellite, SpaceNews, 10 August 2010. 306
Kevin Corbley, Earth Imaging for the Masses, Earth Imaging Journal, 2010. 307
Colin Clark, Sat Pics Flowed Within Hour of Quake, www.dodbuzz.com, 18 March 2011. 308
Charles Devarics, Private Eyes, C4ISR Journal, November / December 2005.
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Both companies focus on GIS-ready applications and retool. They agree that
expanding private sector and foreign government use are vital to success.309310 They
know that GIS technologies have exploded in capability and relevance in the nearly
20 years now elapsed since computerized maps were projected to be “one of the
hottest tools on the business landscape.”311 Mindful that worldwide spending on
space-related activities may flatten in the next few years,312 they help the U.S.
Government adapt to robust online collaboration.313 They focus increasingly on
resource-oriented clients who need data and assessments on food, water, minerals
and demographics. They engage with a wide array of companies in the World
Economic Forum who have written future scenarios and corporate strategies for
water, agriculture and mining.314315 The imagery companies focus heavily on
applications and solutions that matter to the public and business users, not just
military and intelligence customers.316
Commercial satellite imagery remains robust and successful because the military wants
its own satellites and satellite data sources. According to National Space Policy, both the
Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence have responsibility to “develop,
acquire, and operate space systems and supporting information systems and networks…” In
DoD, this includes Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) projects such as small imaging
satellites. Funding for ORS from 2010-2015, however, remains uncertain, thereby causing little
near-term threat to commercial satellite operators.317318319320 The projected ORS budget for
small satellites remains well under $100 million each year through 2015. The ORS-1 optical
satellite does not prove its worth until well after the long-delayed 2011 launch,321322 giving
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye breathing room on continued support to the U.S. military.323324325326
309
Adam Keith, EO Operators Serving Defense Need to Add Commercial Customers, SpaceNews, 8 November 2010. 310
DigitalGlobe, ImageConnect, 2010. 311
Rick Tetzeli, Mapping for Dollars, Fortune, 18 October 1993. 312
Euroconsult press release, Worldwide government spending on space to flatten over the next five years, 16 February 2011. 313
Deloitte. Change your world or the world will change you, The future of collaborative government, 2010. 314
Bob Weber, Resource Monitoring and the Earth Observation Industry, May 2010. 315
World Economic Forum, Industry Partnership, www.weforum.org/en/about/IndustryPartnershipProgram, 2010. 316
Ariane Cornell, Bringing Space Down to Earth: Space Applications to Grow Our Sector Today and Ensure Its Future Tomorrow, SpaceNews, 23 June 2010. 317
John Bennett, USAF Surprised OSD by Putting Small Sats on Wish List, DefenseNews, 8 June 2009. 318
Erik Schecter, Congressional Rescue, C4ISR Journal, 1 September 2009. 319
Turner Brinton, Pentagon Seeks to Shift Money to Satellite Programs, SpaceNews, 13 July 2010. 320
Samuel Black and Victoria Samson, Space Security Programs of Interest in the FY11 DoD Budget Proposal, 2010. 321
ORS-1 Satellite Now Set for April Launch, SpaceNews, 10 December 2010. 322
Turner Brinton, Taurus XL Failure Investigation Could Delay TacSat-4 Launch, SpaceNews, 18 March 2011. 323
Amy Butler, ORS-1 On Track for 2010 Launch, Aviation Week’s DTI, 8 December 2009.
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Moreover, the original 2007 ORS plan of completing eight tactical satellite launches through
Fiscal Year 2013, with a budget of $409 million, falls short of the goal.327 The competition
between Skybox and SSTL becomes a battle on a global scale beginning in 2013, but U.S.
Government funds for DigitalGlobe and GeoEye dwarf the revenue available to competitors
using small satellites.
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye do not lose sight of any potential U.S. Government funding
opportunity. Moreover, GeoEye obtains money from the State of Virginia to assist in moving its
corporate headquarters, contingent on adding at least 100 jobs.328329 Both companies seek a
large role in NGA’s Geospatial Data Readiness (GDR) and Foundation Data Change Detection
(FDCD) activities.330331 They also chase opportunities provided by other Government entities
such as the Department of Transportation’s solicitation on use of remote sensing for
infrastructure planning and operations.332 The companies also seek revenue from potential
interagency Federal projects, such as the Imagery for the Nation (IFTN) initiative, but are wary
of the Government’s hope that imagery data will be placed in the public domain, not
licensed.333
Competition from non-U.S. satellites does not become a serious problem until at least
2015. France’s two Pleiades satellites will not be fully operational until at least 2012,334335
giving DigitalGlobe and GeoEye time to market in advance the capabilities that EnhancedView
will provide. Korea’s sub-meter resolution Kompsat-3 satellite launches in 2011, but is not
robust enough to pose a serious threat. Japan’s first high-resolution commercial ASNARO
satellite does not launch until at least 2013, and perhaps Germany’s long-planned HiROS.336
Moreover, Japan’s plan to export communications and earth observation satellites is an uphill
struggle.337338 India’s long-running remote sensing satellite program continues to evolve, but it
324
An ORS Bus Trip, www.satnews.com, 18 February 2010. 325
ATK To Ship The Operationally Responsive Space-1 Bus, www.spacewar.com, 19 February 2010. 326
Goodrich Begins Environmental Test of ORS-1 Satellite, www.spacedaily.com, 21 December 2010. 327
Department of Defense, Plan for Operationally Responsive Space, 17 April 2007. 328
Marjorie Censer, GeoEye to relocate within Virginia, The Washington Post, 12 October 2010. 329
Gregg MacDonald, GeoEye, Inc. moving its headquarters to Herndon, Fairfax County Times, 14 October 2010. 330
NGA Request for Information, GEOINT Data Readiness, 11 September 2009. 331
NGA Request for Information, Foundation Data Change Detection, 18 June 2010. 332
Department of Transportation, Commercial Remote Sensing & Spatial Information Technologies Program, 27 May 2010. 333
U.S. Government, Request for Information on Imagery for the Nation, 15 July 2010. 334
Peter B. deSelding, First Flight of European Soyuz Delayed Again, SpaceNews, 7 September 2010. 335
Satellite Imaging Corporation, Pleiades Satellite Imagery and Sensor Specifications, 2010. 336
Thomas Walati and Andreas Eckardt, Very High Resolution and 3D optical remote sensing solutions, 27-28 May 2008. 337
Hiroyuki Inahata, Private sector efforts to nurture satellite business have their limits, www.asahi.com, 14 February 2011. 338
Japan to fund Vietnam’s satellite project, www.saigon-gpdaily.com, 3 January 2011.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 48
is not a serious threat to U.S. companies because satellites built by India are designed to meet
national socio-economic development needs, ahead of commercial interests.339340 Italy’s ten-
year development plan to field a range of satellites in collaboration with Israel, from optical to
radar, is not a near-term commercial threat for U.S. high resolution imagery providers. 341
By 2020, both DigitalGlobe and GeoEye focus heavily on providing analytic services
because in 2010 a noted expert on remote sensing stated that “a nearly bewildering set of data
sources at different scales and characteristics is already available for the information needs of
potential customers.”342343344 The companies’ value to customers increasingly hinges on quality
product that is a blend of imagery and non-imagery sources. Collateral information adds
context and precision to what is observed on imagery. The companies make money on change
detection because providing spatio-temporal, location-based services is vital for business
success.345346347 Astrium’s plan to acquire American earth observation firm(s) founders due to
U.S. domestic interests.348 French and German remote sensing interests fail to fully align under
Astrium GEO-Information Services due to national aerospace objectives.349350351 The result is
vibrant, private sector American GEOINT.
2020 Future Two: A Slow Growth Business, Still a U.S. Government Appendage
In this alternative future, U.S. commercial imagery companies continue to rely on
defense and intelligence clients for the largest share of their revenue, but funds from DoD
increase marginally, if at all, forcing the companies to look elsewhere for clients, and inward for
efficiencies more aggressively than in a setting where Government funds are not trimmed. In
November 2010, DigitalGlobe warned investors about the future budget climate;352 months,
earlier, the company was aware of a zero-increase scenario with U.S. Government
customers.353 Between 2010 and 2020, DigitalGlobe and GeoEye are not able to make big gains
339
Emily Wax, India’s Space Ambitions Taking Off, The Washington Post, 4 November 2009. 340
Timothy Puckorius, Indian Remote Sensing Satellite Program, 3 March 2010. 341
Leopoldo Benacchio, Space Agencies: New Projects and Budget Obligations, Milan Il Sole Ore.com, 21 November 2010. 342
Ray Williamson, From Reality 2010 to Vision 2020, Imaging Notes, Summer 2010. 343
GeoEye Press Release, GeoEye to Acquire SPADAC, Inc., 8 December 2010. 344
Peter B. deSelding, GeoEye to Purchase Spadac for $46 Million, SpaceNews, 8 December 2010. 345
Bo Huang, Special Issue on Change Analysis, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, August 2009. 346
Bob Weber, Monitoring Change to Know the Earth, December 2009. 347
DigitalGlobe, 8-Band Multispectral Imagery, http://www.digitalglobe.com, 2010. 348
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium Looking for U.S. Earth Observation Firms to Acquire, SpaceNews, 12 January 2011. 349
Kenneth Timmerman, Secrets Among Friends, Insight Magazine, 23 July 2001. 350
Tim Lister, Cables point to German-French battle over satellite technology, www.cnn.com, 4 January 2011. 351
Peter B. deSelding, OHB Satellite Exec Fired Over Wikileaks Disclosure, SpaceNews, 18 January 2011. 352
Peter B. deSelding, DigitalGlobe Warns on U.S. Budget Climate, SpaceNews, 3 November 2010. 353
Peter B. deSelding, With U.S. Contracts Delayed, DigitalGlobe Looks Elsewhere for 2010 Growth, SpaceNews, 25 February 2010.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 49
in revenue from commercial clients because U.S. defense-related requirements force the cost
of space and ground segments to increase significantly.354 GeoEye-2, planned for launch in
2013 could cost up to $850 million, at least 60 percent more than GeoEye-1.355356357
DigitalGlobe’s WorldView-3 satellite will cost over $300 million.358 Moreover, GeoEye’s Ikonos
satellite is 11 years old, and would have 14 years in space if it lasts through 2013.359 DoD is not
able to entirely offset the burden on corporate infrastructure due to budget pressures, but still
looks favorably on commercial imagery satellites as a backup for national satellites, and reduce
the vulnerability of U.S. space systems.360
The DoD does not, over the next decade, abandon commercial imagery because major
elements of U.S. forces for several years are still affected by operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan.361 An enduring role in Afghanistan and elsewhere to defeat terrorists drives
continuing access to a range of imagery sources. Moreover, the military counts on the Director
of National Intelligence to field and operate next-generation, national electro-optical satellites
as agreed in 2009. The military insists on having its own satellites that are acquired primarily
for support to on-going military operations.362 This principle, articulated in 1998 by the Defense
Science Board (DSB), remains intact. The responsibility of the Secretary of Defense and Director
of National Intelligence to prevent redundancy in imaging systems remains in force at least
through 2020, after the next-generation national satellites are launched and prove successful.
The separate concerns of DoD and DNI, however, suggests that the resulting multiple ISR
systems will not disappear, notwithstanding apparent duplication of effort.363
The DNI does not, over the next decade, abandon commercial imagery because ten
years is needed to convince national leaders that complex and expensive reconnaissance
satellite acquisition is again doable. The original contract for the failed Future Imagery
Architecture (FIA) extended to 2010;364 according to an intelligence official, because the
industrial base is thin and narrow, the country now does not want to push for more than it can
handle.365366 Keen observers will want proof that the Intelligence Community can regain and
354
Peter B. deSelding, GeoEye-2 Price Tag Rises on Ground System Upgrades, SpaceNews, 12 November 2010. 355
Ibid. 356
Peter B. deSelding, NGA to Contribute $337 Million to GeoEye’s Next Satellite, SpaceNews, 10 August 2010. 357
Inflation hits GeoEye-2, http://geospatialworld.net, 15 November 2010. 358
Peter B. deSelding, DigitalGlobe Awards $307M in Contracts for WorldView-3 Satellite, SpaceNews, 31 August 2010. 359
Lockheed Martin + GeoEye…Eleven Image-Filled Years, Satnews Daily, October 2010. 360
Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010. 361
Ibid. 362
Defense Science Board Task Force on Satellite Reconnaissance, January 1998. 363
Richard Best, ISR Acquisition: Issues for Congress, 15 June 2010. 364
Kenneth Silber, Spy Satellite Agency Awards Big Contract to Boeing, www.space.com, 8 September 1999. 365
Colin Clark, President Approves New Spy Satellites, www.dodbuzz.com, 7 April 2009. 366
Dwayne Day, Better the devil you know…., The Space Review, 10 August 2009.
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apply critical program management skills.367368369370 As the DNI noted in 2009, commercial “less
complex” satellites are especially useful as a “supplement and backup to the government’s
existing imagery architecture.”371
National budget constraints by mid-decade, however, limit the availability of funds for
commercial satellite imagery. Defense Secretary Gates stated in May 2010 that the post-9/11
“gusher” of defense spending has been turned off, “and will stay off for a good period of
time.”372 This year, the Undersecretary of Defense outlined an initiative to better manage
defense procurement and trim costs where possible, starting with $100 billion in
savings.373374375 Secretary Gates wants to instill a “culture of savings and restraint.”376377 Some
observers contend that the downward trend will reduce the Pentagon’s share of the national
budget from 19.4 percent in 2010 to 15.6 percent in 2015.378
The huge increase in the use of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) for reconnaissance and
other purposes continues from 2010 to 2020. Worldwide expenditures for such systems could
total between $75-95 billion in the next ten years, half from the United States.379380 The 2010
QDR states that these systems are a priority; their use will “expand.”381 The Pentagon spent
$284 million on such systems in FY2000, but wants to spend $4.1 billion on them in FY2011.382
The number of deployed UAS has increased by thousands in the last few years, and their use for
homeland security becomes increasingly viable.383 Nonetheless, commercial satellite imagery
hangs on in this alternative future because both the DoD and DNI vouch for its utility and
367
Philip Taubman, In Death of Spy Satellite Program, Lofty Plans and Unrealistic Bids, The New York Times, 11 November 2007. 368
Bill Gertz, Exquisite Spy Satellite, The Washington Times, 10 September 2009. 369
Ben Iannotta, Spy-Sat Rescue, C4ISR Journal, 2 June 2009. 370
Edmund Nowinski and Robert Kohler, The Lost Art of Program Management in the Intelligence Community, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 50, No. 2, 2006. 371
ODNI News Release No. 12-09, DNI Blair Announces Plan for the Next Generation of Electro-Optical Satellites, 7 April 2009. 372
Robert M. Gates, Speech on Defense Spending by Secretary of Defense, www.defense.gov/speeches, 8 May 2010. 373
Ashton Carter, Better Buying Power: Mandate for Restoring Affordability and Productivity in Defense Spending, 28 June 2010. 374
John Bennett, Gates Taps Carter to Lead Procurement, Services Efficiency Effort, DefenseNews, 28 June 2010. 375
Dana Hedgpeth, Pentagon Looks for 100 Billion in Cost Savings, The Washington Post, 29 June 2010. 376
Craig Whitlock, Pentagon to Cut Thousands of Jobs, Defense Secretary Says, The Washington Post, 10 August 2010. 377
Colin Clark, Culture of Savings and Restraint, www.dodbuzz.com, 9 August 2010. 378
Thomas Donnelly and Gary Schmitt, The Big Squeeze, The Weekly Standard, 7 June 2010. 379
Jeff Specht, Drones, Earth Imaging Journal, September / October 2010. 380
Global UAV Market to Total $94 Billion in Next Decade, http://info.intelligencecareers.com, 18 March 2011. 381
Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010. 382
Department of Defense, Quadrennial Roles and Missions Review Report, January 2009. 383
Christopher Bolkcom, Blas Nunez-Neto, Homeland Security: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Border Surveillance, CRS Report for Congress, 13 May 2008.
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pressure mounts to consolidate UAS expenditures across the military Services.384 Moreover,
the track record for ORS has not yet given military commanders enough confidence that they
can give up one of the forms of satellite imaging (national, tactical and commercial), not until
Defense budget cuts force choices.
The 2011 presumed success of ORS-1 gives renewed vigor to the program, but its
0.42 meter diameter aperture only allows the satellite to collect 1 meter resolution
imagery, not as sharp as commercial satellites by DigitalGlobe and GeoEye.385
ORS proves successful from 2010 to 2020 because it meets the 2007 objective to
develop, acquire, and field space capabilities more quickly and in more affordable
ways.386387388 The cost for commercial imagery goes in the other direction because
national and military needs for 0.25 meter resolution satellite imagery drive up the
cost, increasing risk for the industry.
In this future, sub-meter commercial satellite imagery is a commodity available from
several international sources. Astrium’s 2010 positive claims regarding company health and
growth reflect an upward path.389390 Well before 2020, France installs at many of SPOT’s 44-
partner sites receiving equipment for Pleiades imagery. SPOT does well pressing its view on
being the “trusted” source for geo-spatial information and services.391392 Although the launch
of Pleaides satellites is delayed by problems constructing the Soyuz launch site in French
Guyana393, both satellites are in space and operating before GeoEye-2 or Worldview-3 are
launched. Moreover, Astrium’s SPOT 6 and 7 satellites, although lacking resolution, become
viable alternative for some users.394 Japan is successful with a sub-meter resolution
commercial satellite, and South Korea makes a serious run at commercial market share due to
its experience with German-provided optics for the Kompsat-3 satellite.395 South Korea and
Germany become ongoing partners, giving Germany’s HiROS project global reach. Skybox
384
Walter Pincus, Military services should consider common course in chase for updated unmanned aircraft, The Washington Post, 11 January 2011. 385
Stanley Kishner, David Flynn, Charles Cox, Goodrich Optical and Space Systems Division, Reconnaissance Payloads for Responsive Space, April 2006. 386
Department of Defense, Plan for Operationally Responsive Space, 17 April 2007. 387
United States Congress. Senate Report 111-201, Operationally Reponsive Space, 2010. 388
Harris Corp. Press Release, Harris Corporation Awarded $42 Million Contract to Provide All-Weather Imaging Payload Onboard New Military Spacecraft, 16 December 2010. 389
Reinhold Lutz, Astrium – A Global Player in the Earth Observation Business, March 2010. 390
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium Reports Steady Sales, Good Prospects, SpaceNews, 12 November 2010. 391
Rhett Caltrider, The Trusted Source for Geo-Spatial Information, Briefing to NGA, 20 March 2009. 392
SPOT Image: From 3D to Services, www.asmmag.com, 30 May 2010. 393
Peter B. deSelding, Hurdles to European Soyuz Were Higher than Expected, SpaceNews, 8 October 2010. 394
AstroTerra puts itself on the map, www.astrium.eads.net, 25 January 2011. 395
Andreas Eckardt, High Resolution Instruments for Air and Spaceborne Application, 20 November 2006.
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Imaging and SSTL drive down the cost of satellites and imagery, placing serious pressure on
DigitalGlobe and GeoEye.
Alternative imagery sources, other than high-resolution optical from DigitalGlobe and
GeoEye, become important for NGA, causing difficult funding decisions regarding GEOINT data.
Germany’s commercial TanDEM-X satellite mission, costing about $200 million,396 by 2015
produces an elevation map of the world more detailed and precise than available to NGA from
the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) flown in 2000 at a cost of $142 million.397398399
Lacking commercial radar satellites, there is no American alternative for the dataset. In 2005, a
German company believed that the commercial radar data market at the time was $60 million,
about 15 percent of the optical market.400 The value of TanDEM-X data may turn out to be
many times greater, and NGA may have to buy a good bit of it for mission reasons. Moreover, a
German idea to partner with the United States on a future mission called TanDEM-L could draw
funds away from U.S. commercial imagery suppliers.401
U.S. Government interest also increases in alternative sources that could be gained via
asymmetric trade such as launch of a satellite in exchange for data. This approach was used
with Canada’s Radarsat-1 and could be used for the future Radarsat Constellation Mission.402
Canada’s forthcoming review of aerospace policy may result in opportunities for government-
to-government collaboration with the United States.403 In addition, the U.S. apparently would
have access to imagery from a future Australian-owned imagery satellite.404
The insatiable U.S. defense and intelligence need for high-resolution optical satellite
imagery in this period continues to stymie hope for a U.S. moderate resolution multispectral
system. DigitalGlobe had a license in 2000 to operate a 5 meter resolution multispectral
imaging system as a complement for high-resolution data.405406 The military applications
reportedly were “growing in popularity”, including signature and terrain analysis.407 The
396
Satnews Daily, Spatial Injection for TanDEM-X, www.satnews.com, 21 June 2010. 397
Peter B. deSelding, Dnepr Rocket Launches German Radar Satellite, SpaceNews, 21 June 2010. 398
TanDEM-X Adds More Elevation Data, www.asmmag.com, 24 June 2010. 399
Satnews Daily, Firsts for TanDEM-X, www.satnews.com, 28 June 2010. 400
Bob Weber, European Satellite Imagery Continuity, March 2010. 401
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Envisions Tandem Radar Mission with U.S., SpaceNews, 9 December 2010. 402
Peter B. deSelding, Canadian Radarsat Constellation to Get $374 Million Cash Infusion, SpaceNews, 26 August 2010. 403
Marc Boucher, Harper Government to Review Aerospace Policy and Programs, http://spaceref.ca, 22 March 2011. 404
Philip Dorling, Australia and US sign secret spy deal, http://theage.com.au, 7 February 2011. 405
Department of Commerce, M-5 Private Remote Sensing System License Summary, www.licensing.noaa.gov, 29 June 2010. 406
DigitalGlobe News Room, M5 System to Image the Earth’s Land Surface Every Four Days, 30 May 2002. 407
USAF Air University, Maxwell AFB, Multispectral Imagery, AU Space Primer, www.space.au.af.mil, August 2002.
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Pentagon’s Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) wanted such a capability, but to date it
has not been fielded.408
As with commercial radar imagery, Germany filled this gap in remote sensing
leadership by fielding a 5-satellite multispectral system called RapidEye.409 The
system has a higher spatial resolution than Landsat (6.5 meters vis-à-vis 30), and
more frequent revisit. Each Landsat image covers more area, but RapidEye is able to
cover large areas more quickly. RapidEye imaged 80 percent of China within six
months for land management and change detection purposes.410411412
2020 Future Three: Business Failure as U.S. Government Funds Erode and Competition Grows
This outcome is not out of the question, as U.S. Federal spending takes a sharp
downturn, including for defense and intelligence.413 Over $80 billion was spent on intelligence
in Fiscal Year 2010, more than double the 2001 amount, causing Congressional leaders to call
for restraint.414 The Director of National Intelligence noted in November 2010 that “we had the
same thing happen” in the early 1990s when the intelligence budget was reduced by 22.5
percent.415 At the time, a media opinion claimed that the Director of Central Intelligence was
wrong in trying to add money for new spy satellites, and that Congress should continue to cut
the intelligence community “down to appropriate size”.416 After spending over $2 trillion more
for defense from 2000-2010 than anticipated in 1999, the incentive to reduce outlays is
clear.417418
Regarding purchase of commercial imagery, there is precedent for the Department of
Defense to reduce funding. In 1994, less than four months after the highly publicized rollout of
new national policy on commercial imagery, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff wrote
to the Defense Mapping Agency directing use of imagery from the government’s national
satellites in lieu of commercial sources.419 Although the guidance was not specific, it would
408
The Joint Staff, National Security Space Architect Integrated Spectral Architecture, 14 November 2002. 409
Kim Douglas, Markus Heynen, RapidEye: Delivering the World, Imaging Notes, Fall 2010. 410
RapidEye Newsletter, China Imaging Campaign, July 2010. 411
RapidEye, RapidEye Standard Image Product Specifications, May 2010. 412
RapidEye, RapidEye Images the Entire Country of China, 2010. 413
Lori Montgomery, A renewed focus on spending, The Washington Post, 27 October 2010. 414
Walter Pincus, Intelligence spending at record $80.1 billion overall, The Washington Post, 29 October 2010. 415
Turner Brinton, Clapper Seeks to Phase in Intelligence Spending Cuts, SpaceNews, 3 November 2010. 416
Ever More Money for Intelligence, The New York Times, 19 April 1993. 417
Winslow Wheeler, $1 Trillion Bought Older, Smaller Forces: Fix it, Mr. Gates, http://www.dodbuzz.com. 30 August 2010. 418
Top GOP Congressman: DoD Not Spared From Cuts, Agence France-Presse, 4 January 2011. 419
W.A. Owens to Director, Defense Mapping Agency, CM-856-95, 27 June 1994.
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have included Russian commercial imagery that DMA found could meet or augment DoD
requirements in some cases.420
Even if only a portion of the $1 trillion in defense cuts from 2011 - 2020 suggested in a
June 2010 task force study are taken, satellite programs would not be immune.421 A separate
bipartisan debt reduction panel in November 2010 called for a transition to less expensive
satellite imagery.422 According to the Director, Congressional Budget Office, solving the
national debt problem would take action such as a 25 percent increase in taxes, a 20 percent
reduction in Federal spending, or some combination.423 This is one reason why The National
Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform recommends a cap on discretionary spending,
including for defense, through 2020.424 Further calls to cut back on defense, including for the
war in Afghanistan,425 emerge in 2011 on the 50th anniversary of former President Eisenhower’s
farewell address concern about the power of the military-industrial complex and need for
balance in national programs.426427428
By 2020, it is too late for DigitalGlobe and GeoEye to diversify their business base from
two decades of dependency on defense and intelligence. The availability of their commercial
imagery for the public is de facto restricted due to heavy use by defense and intelligence.429
The scale of the restriction in 2020 dwarfs the first “assured access”, less than $10 million
payment by NGA from October to December 2001 to Space Imaging for access to IKONOS
imagery of Afghanistan.430 Moreover, the Pentagon cannot afford to spend billions of dollars
for commercial satellite imagery as costs explode for other satellite services.431 Government
spending on space-related projects flattens.432
High-resolution commercial satellites based on defense and intelligence needs for image
detail are generally not optimal for global scale monitoring of resource issues. In 1968, Vice
420
Defense Mapping Agency. Report on the Evaluation and Procurement of Former Soviet Union Imagery and Materials, 10 March 1994. 421
Report of the Sustainable Defense Task Force titled Debt, Deficits, & Defense, 11 June 2010. 422
Turner Brinton, Domenici-Rivlin Panel Targets Missile Defense, Satellite Imagery for Cuts, SpaceNews, 17 November 2010. 423
Minutes of the Third Meeting of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, 30 June 2010. 424
Report of The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth, December 2010. 425
Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Battle looms over pace of Afghanistan pullout, The Washington Post, 31 March 2011. 426
Wikipedia, Military Industrial Complex, December 2010. 427
Wikisource, Eisenhower’s farewell address, 17 January 1961, December 2010. 428
Walter Pincus, Eisenhower’s words worth listening to today, The Washington Post, 14 December 2010. 429
Clarence Robinson, Combat Units Drive Imagery, The Year in Defense, 2006. 430
Joe Francica, Executive Interview with Robert Cardillo of NGA, Directions Magazine, 29 July 2004. 431
Turner Brinton, Pentagon Seeing Sharp Price Increases for Commercial Satcom, SpaceNews, 18 March 2011. 432
Euroconsult News Release, Worldwide government spending on space to flatten over the next five years, 16 February 2011.
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President Humphrey argued, to no avail, with budget cutters for a civilian “Sky Spy”.433 He
argued that study of the Earth would be a big payoff from the space program. Earth scientists
thought that earth monitoring satellites could pay for themselves, partly on grounds that
cameras on military satellites could provide a wealth of information for industry and
government planners worldwide. Werner Von Braun thought a technical spinoff from the U.S.
Apollo program could be satellites to monitor global agriculture.434
Landsat satellites were a success, but remote sensing experts worried in 2006 that
the U.S. was yielding leadership in moderate resolution land imaging data.435 Even if
Landsat 8 succeeds after launch in December 2012 and extends its 40-year
continuity436, Federal deficit issues could derail plans for Landsat 9 service in 2017
and beyond.437438
France’s SPOT 6 and 7 satellites, beginning in 2012, largely eliminate a U.S. role in
moderate resolution space-based imaging. SPOT sales exceeded $150 million in
2008, up from $40 million in 2002.439 By 2020, SPOT proves that it can reliably offer
multi-satellite, multi-sensor, multi-resolution service.440
In this alternative future, the U.S. commercial satellite imagery industry does not
recover ground lost piecemeal after 2000 to Europe, Canada, and Asia. France, Germany, India,
Japan, and South Korea all have mature commercial sales programs for sub-meter optical
imagery. Competition and more satellites increase the industry’s capacity, causing depressed
prices.441 SPOT’s objective to win back high-resolution market share with Pleiades satellites
succeeds due to the scope and distribution of its 44 ground stations, and constellation concept
whereby Pleiades 1 and 2, and SPOT 6 and 7 are spaced equidistant in the same orbit to
maximize high and moderate resolution collection.442 France’s plan to double its space budget
by 2020 results in marked advances in classified and commercial satellite imaging capacity.443444
This keeps Astrium busy making imaging satellites and marketing services, including “smart
433
The Washington Post. Civilian Sky Spy Is a Budget Victim. 10 January 1968. 434
U.S. News and World Report, 12 December 1966. 435
ASPRS, Remote Sensing Survey on the Future of Land Imaging, 6 November 2006. 436
Landsat 8 Launch Goal is December 2012, http://eureka-geo.com/wordpress, 2010. 437
Deanna Archuleta, Department of Interior’s Role in Earth Observation, 16 March 2010. 438
Barbara Ryan and Bruce Quirk, Landsat Program on Track for 2011, ACSM Bulletin, December 2007. 439
Peter B. deSelding, SPOT Commits to New Satellites, But Funding Questions Remain, SpaceNews, 15 June 2009. 440
Jeff Thurston, SPOT Image: From 3D to Services, www.asmmag.com, 28 June 2010. 441
Northern Sky Research, White Paper on The Changing Face of Earth Observation, December 2008. 442
Reinventing the Constellation Concept, SPOT Magazine, First Semester 2010. 443
Christian Lardier, Soon a Military Command for Space, Paris Air & Cosmos, 11 December 2009. 444
Peter B. deSelding, France Orders Two Recon Satellites, SpaceNews, 2 December 2010.
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mapping solutions” according to a company banner.445446 Increased investment in the
European Space Agency has a positive effect on the European industrial base.447 India’s remote
sensing satellites continue to succeed448; Korea flies a 3rd generation optical Kompsat; Germany
flies for itself or exports the HiROS system449450; and Japan makes this sector a commercial
winner ten years after Tokyo’s 2009 plan to make its space industry competitive, not just use it
for R&D.451 The negative impact on the health of DigitalGlobe and GeoEye is unmistakable.
From 2010 to 2020, little or nothing is done by the U.S. Government to counter the
erosion of U.S. leadership in commercial imagery.452 There are few options because satellite
imaging technology is widespread, and access to “free” or low-cost data from government-
operated satellites conflicts with commercial industry objectives.453 Advances in technology
outpace the Government’s ability to deal with it, such as the quandary on providing imagery to
foreign governments for targeting support.454 The U.S. focus remains narrow, greatly
emphasizing spatial resolution. Moreover, the “exquisite” classified satellites referred to in
2010 as a “multibillions” program for Lockheed turn out to be successful, and operate from
2015 onward, thereby reducing the need for commercial satellite imagery that once served as a
temporary supplement or backup. In a sign of change, the NRO’s so-called Next Generation
Optical system includes a different optics supplier than the one chosen for the failed FIA
project. 455 The Director, NRO follows through on his plan to increase funding for science and
technology efforts for developing future satellites.456
The nation cannot afford commercial satellites, costing nearly one billion dollars each,
which some officials reportedly say provide much of the same capabilities as NRO’s satellites.457
National leaders decide that in-orbit NRO satellites take priority over commercial
alternatives.458459 The ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee noted in March
2011 that the NRO recently launched an imaging satellite and will launch another in two
445
France getting EADS spy satellites, http://www.spacedaily.com, 7 December 2010. 446
Astrium News Release, Infoterra and Spot Image are now Astrium GEO-Information Services, 1 December 2010. 447
Peter B. deSelding, ESA Budget Rises to $4B as 14 Nations Boost Contributions, 21 January 2011. 448
K.S. Jayaraman, Indian PSLV Rocket Puts Cartosat-2B into Orbit, SpaceNews, 12 July 2010. 449
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Eyes High-Resolution Optical Imaging Satellites, SpaceNews, 10 June 2010. 450
Thomas Walati and Andreas Eckhardt, Very High Resolution and 3D Optical Remote Sensing Solutions, May 2008. 451
The Yomiuri Shimbun, Space Industry Funding to Double in Next Ten Years, 27 May 2010. 452
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Health of the U.S. Industrial Base and the Impact of Export Controls, February 2008. 453
Northern Sky Research, Free Market Economy the Bane of the EO Industry, 25 February 2010. 454
David Ignatius, New rules for new weapons, The Washington Post, 11 November 2010. 455
Turner Brinton, Goodrich Chosen to Build Spy Sat Optics, SpaceNews, 29 October 2010. 456
Amy Butler, NRO to Declassify Some Program Data, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 15 September 2010. 457
Marc Ambinder, Why McCain is Holding Up Clapper’s Nomination, The Atlantic, 2 August 2010. 458
Justin Ray, Delta 4-Heavy’s hush-hush payload found and identified, Spaceflight Now, 23 January 2011. 459
Turner Brinton, Air Force Launches NRO Satellite Aboard Delta 4 Heavy, SpaceNews, 20 January 2011.
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years.460 Moreover, the Director, NRO claimed in November 2010 that his agency had already
cut all the [budget] corners possible, noting that legacy spy satellites may be de-orbited.461
ORS also becomes a cost-effective imagery solution for DoD due to acquisition
reform pressures,462 and more responsive to commanders’ needs than commercial
imagery.463 Defense acquisition reform results in stark choices for the military from
2010 – 2020, such as recapitalizing equipment. Low-cost ORS approaches become
more valued assets than DigitalGlobe and GeoEye commercial satellites, which more
or less become an unclassified version of national classified satellites.
ORS becomes more important as the Pentagon seeks alternative imagery sources
less costly than classified and unclassified satellites made by Lockheed. Raytheon’s
“Responder” modular satellite, built in months vice years, for example, proves viable
for providing satellite imagery to field commanders.464465
Small commercial satellites made and operated by Skybox and SSTL become a staple
for defense and non-defense users because their low cost results in a marked
reduction in the cost of data and services.
In this future, the end state is driven by a reduction in U.S. Government funding, rapid
increase in foreign competition and advances in low cost small satellite capability. Astrium
follows up on high expectations,466 and gains traction with its GEO-Information Services
division.467 Military and intelligence support continue as the basis for licensed commercial
satellite imagery in the United States. Use for commercial purposes remains secondary. As a
result in 2020, the U.S. is less able to image and monitor with diverse means global problems
such as food and water availability, natural resource depletion, and changes caused by
explosive demographics. This ground is largely ceded to Europe and Asia because U.S. military
and intelligence use of high-resolution optical commercial imagery remains paramount.
This future begins in 2020, twenty years after the successful launch of NASA’s Earth
Observing-1 mission, including its hyperspectral sensor called Hyperion.468 Such sensors include
460
Turner Brinton, Congress Still Weighing Options for New Imaging Satellites, SpaceNews, 15 March 2011. 461
Turner Brinton, Clapper Seeks to Phase in Intelligence Spending Cuts, SpaceNews, 3 November 2010. 462
Gary Payton, Military Space Programs in FY2011 and the Future Years Defense Program, 21 April 2010. 463
Goodrich…Sensing Success with ORS, Satnews Daily, 25 October 2010. 464
Stew Magnuson, Military Looks to Small Satellites as Costs for Large Spacecraft Grow, National Defense, July 201. 465
Raytheon product brochure, Responder: Responsive Space Solutions, 2010. 466
Peter B. deSelding, Astrium’s 2010 Results Surpass Expectations, SpaceNews, 9 March 2011. 467
Astrium News Release, Infoterra and Spot Image are now Astrium GEO-Information Services, 1 December 2010. 468
NASA Fact Sheet, Earth Observing-1, The Advanced Land Imager, 1999.
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hundreds of spectral bands for improved Earth surface characterization. By 2010, over 40,000
images had been collected, resulting in over 400 technical papers.469 A workshop in Iceland on
hyper-spectral image processing in June 2010 covered a range of applications, including
defense and security.470
The utility of hyperspectral imaging for the U.S. military is proven on an ORS satellite
called TacSat-3, launched in May 2009, capable of detecting about six times more of the
electromagnetic spectrum than the human eye.471472 Before launch, an author suggested that it
could revolutionize space-based intelligence collection.473 One year later, media reports
indicated that it had demonstrated utility to U.S. military forces.474475476 The transition of the
system from experimental to operational took place on 18 June 2010.477
For various reasons, in this alternative future there is no U.S. commercial hyperspectral
imaging satellite, while Germany goes ahead with a plan to field a system called EnMAP.
Although TacSat-3 has much better spatial and spectral performance than EnMAP, it is
restricted for military use because DoD considers hyperspectral sensing to have significant
military utility.478 Whereas ten years ago it was apparent that United States regulators wanted
limits on sale of commercial hyperspectral data and products,479 German experts now write
that EnMAP data policy should give room to encourage value adding companies to enter this
field in earth observation.480 This aligns with Germany’s November 2010 national space
strategy which features technological independence and opening up new markets.481
The 15-year U.S. lead with Hyperion over EnMAP, both designed as scientific missions
with similar performance, becomes irrelevant as Germany uses EnMAP for commercial gain,
just as TerraSAR / TanDEM-X surged ahead of the United States in commercial radar imaging. A
Japanese hyperspectral approach, studied initially in 2006, becomes real in 2014 / 2015 as a
469
NASA, http://eo1.gsfc.nasa.gov/technology/hyperion, Hyperion Instrument, 2001. 470
WHISPERS, 2 nd
Workshop on Hyperspectral Image and Signal Processing, June 2010. 471
Wikipedia, TacSat-3, 2010. 472
William Matthews, Putting Image Analysis in Space, DefenseNews, 15 June 2009. 473
Taylor Dinerman, TacSat-3, The Space Review, 25 June 2007. 474
Todd Neff, Tall Order, C4ISR Journal, 1 April 2010. 475
Rebecca Boyle, Prototype Hyperspectral Satellite Fast-Tracked to Begin Official Spy Work for Military, www.popsci.com/technology, 11 June 2010. 476
Lewis Page, New Prototype US Spy Satellite Rushed Into Active Use, www.theregister.co.uk, 11 June 2010. 477
U.S. Air Force News Release, Space command officials embark on many firsts with tactical satellite, 28 June 2010. 478
Mark Hewish, Cost cut for eyes in space, Jane’s International Defence Review, December 2000. 479
Charles Robb to William Cohen, 22 June 1998. 480
Gunter Schreier, Fundamentals of Earth Observation Policy, Examples of German and European Missions, 23 March 2010. 481
The German Federal Government adopts a new space strategy, www.satnews.com, 8 December 2010.
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hosted payload on ALOS-3.482483 U.S. restrictions on commercial hyperspectral imaging
imposed in 2000 for a satellite that failed on launch are reinforced by the TacSat-3 success.484
482
Itochu Corporation Press Release, Commercial Hyperspectral System Hyper-X, 18 April 2006. 483
Duke TAKAHASHI, Hyper-X provides answers versus images, Itochu Corporation, March 2010. 484
Bryan Bender, USA to Limit Sale of Satellite Imagery on Security Grounds, Jane’s Defense Weekly, 8 March 2000. 485
Craig Bachmann and Natasha Lager, The 4 th
Dimension: Time, Imaging Notes, Fall 2009. 486
National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, NIC 2008-003, November 2008. 487
National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, December 2000.
2020 Reference Point: The Purpose of Commercial Satellite Imagery
The balance in use of U.S. commercial satellites for military and non-military needs is the point to
watch in 2020. Experts agree that the main purpose of the geospatial industry is to track changes on the
planet and changes in physical resources, such as food, water, and minerals. 485 Use of imagery for
military and intelligence concerns will continue to be the top priority for the United States -- at this point
60 years beyond fielding its first spy satellite. Nonetheless, if analysts are correct that the international
system as we know it will be almost unrecognizable in 2025, imagery satellites by 2020 should make a
much greater contribution than today for monitoring non-military activity.486487 This potential
contribution was deemed enormous in an intelligence report published in 1971, noting that the roughly
2-meter resolution Corona satellite system was a breakthrough for resources exploitation.488 The report
found that the economic and political impact of this type of monitoring could not be overstated.
The 2010 drought and fire impact on Russian agriculture illustrates the importance of food
production and export.489 The CIA thought in 1967 that aerial photography could be used to identify
agricultural trouble spots.490 By the 1970s, CIA used meteorological data, agronomic expertise, and
satellite images to monitor the Russian grain crop.491 Although climate change may improve growing
conditions for Russian crops, experts noted in 2009 that over the past 10-20 years climate change in
Russia has been linked to extreme events such as heat waves and fires.492 Monitoring these problems
has a direct relationship to American exports, especially in states like Minnesota whose farmers
anticipated a bumper 2010 crop.493 Wheat prices rose 70 percent due to heat and fire in Russia, causing
experts to express concern over global food supply challenges.494495496
Industries associated with the World Economic Forum are aware of future pressures on available
water, agriculture, minerals and so on. China’s aggressive pursuit of minerals from Australia, for
example, has caused Australian national security concerns.497498 Commercial imagery satellites can make
a contribution in these areas.499500501502 Much depends on the extent that future U.S. commercial
imagery satellites are designed and used for non-military tasks.
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In an attempt to preserve military and intelligence superiority, there is no EnMAP-
comparable American commercial hyperspectral imaging system in space before 2020, if at all.
Although a U.S. firm obtained in September 2010 a license from the Department of Commerce
for hyperspectral satellites in geosynchronous orbit, the best panchromatic resolution would be
300 meters, and the best hyperspectral resolution would be 2 kilometers.503504
Role of the Department of Commerce
Knowing the history of remote sensing regulation is important to enable the
Department of Commerce (DoC) “to prepare for the future of environmental observations,
develop a next generation strategic plan, and position itself to be the world’s most
comprehensive source and recognized authority for satellite products, environmental
information, and official assessments of the environment in support of societal and economic
decisions…”505
The role of the DoC is central to current Government process in commercial remote
sensing licensing,506 but the priority of this work seems to have declined over the past 25 years.
NOAA activities such as maintaining effective environmental monitoring using DoC-owned,
operated, and funded capabilities appear to be more important. On the other hand,
commercial remote sensing is very important to DoD due to massive investment. Ironically, in
1870, President Grant authorized the Secretary of War to create a national weather service
because it was believed that military discipline would result in prompt and accurate
488
CORONA, America’s First Satellite Program, 1995. 489
Lauren Goodrich, Drought, Fire, and Grain in Russia, www.stratfor.com/weekly, 10 August 2010. 490 William R. Gasser, Aerial Photography for Agriculture, Studies in Intelligence, Volume 11, Fall 1967. 491
James Noren, CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Economy, Watching the Bear, Chapter II, 16 March 2007. 492
National Intelligence Council, Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030, NIC 2009-04D, April 2009. 493
Mike Hughlett, Big Crop Could Pay Off for Minnesota’s Farmers, Minneapolis StarTribune, 12 August 2010. 494
Neil MacFarquhar, UN Raises Concerns as Global Food Prices Jump, The New York Times, 3 September 2010. 495
Javier Blas, Fears grow over food supply, Financial Times, 3 September 2010. 496
Rudy Ruitenberg, Speculation, Price Swings Threaten Security of Food Supply, Bloomberg, 23 January 2011. 497
Malcolm Knox, The deal is simple. Australia gets money, China gets Australia, Bloomberg Businessweek, 6 September 2010. 498
Keith Bradsher, China Still Bans Rare Earth to Japan, The New York Times, 10 November 2010. 499
Water, Our Thirsty World, National Geographic, April 2010. 500
World Economic Forum Water Initiative, January 2009. 501
World Economic Forum, A New Vision for Agriculture, www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/, 2010. 502
World Economic Forum, Mining and Metals Scenarios to 2030, 2010. 503
GeoMetWatch…Showing A Great Deal of Sense, SatNews Daily, 27 October 2010. 504
GeoMetWatch, Inc., Private Remote Sensing License Public Summary, 2010. 505
Department of Commerce, Request for Quotation SS133E-10-RQ-1275, 19 August 2010. 506
The 1984 Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act, repealed and replaced in 1992 by the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act, require Commerce to license the operations of commercial remote sensing satellites.
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observations.507 The function was transferred to the Department of Agriculture in 1890, then
to Commerce in 1940.
The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and, Information Service (NESDIS) evolved as
a management and data base function for national environmental data, originally tied to
weather information included in the 1950 formation of a data center for climate. The
environmental data base function became increasingly important with the 1970 formation of
NOAA.508 NESDIS was created in 1982 to consolidate NOAA’s satellite and data management
activities.509 By 2004, according to NOAA Strategic Direction, forming an Information Service
Enterprise (ISE) would be the “lifeblood” of NOAA, i.e., the environmental information provided
by the enterprise to NOAA users.510 The Strategic Direction was silent, however, on commercial
remote sensing systems. This silence is also evident in a June 2010 draft of NOAA’s next-
generation strategic plan.511
In 1988, the Secretary of Commerce formed the Office of Space Commercialization
within the Department of the Secretary.512 The office was positioned in the 1980s to be DoC’s
advocate for commercial remote sensing, but by this time NESDIS was the DoC focal point for
remote sensing issues. Nonetheless, the purpose of the space commercialization unit was to
foster conditions for the economic growth and technological advancement of the U.S.
commercial space industry. This function was moved to DoC’s Technology Administration in
1996.513 The Technology Administration was formed, in part, to “conduct technology policy
analyses to improve United States industrial productivity, technology, and innovation, and
cooperate with United States industry in the improvement of its productivity, technology, and
ability to compete successfully in world markets.”514
Legislation was enacted in 1998 to realign the Office of Space Commercialization to
DoC’s National Institute for Standards and Technology.515 In 2005, the office was again
realigned to NOAA, and now resides in NESDIS.516 In 2007, the Technology Administration was
abolished by the American COMPETES Act.517 As a result, a point of advocacy for commercial
507
National Weather Service, http://srh.noaa.gov/mob/?n=history, 2010. 508
Department of Commerce, Reorganization Plan No. 4 of 1970, effective 3 October 1970. 509
Department of Commerce, A History of NOAA, 2010. 510
Department of Commerce, Strategic Direction for NOAA’s Integrated Global Environmental Observation and Data Management System, July 2004. 511
Department of Commerce, NOAA’s Next-Generation Strategic Plan, Version 4.0, Draft dated 23 June 2010. 512
Department of Commerce, Department Organizational Order 15-19, 2 December 1988. 513
Department of Commerce, Department Organizational Order 10-17, 1996. 514
15 USC 3704 – Sec 3704, Commerce and technological innovation. 515
105 th
Congress, Public Law 105-309, An Act to Authorize Appropriations for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, 1998. 516
Department of Commerce, Department Organizational Order 25-5, 2005. 517
H.R. 2272, America COMPETES Act, 9 August 2007.
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remote sensing has shifted over 20 years from being a direct report to the Secretary of
Commerce, to an advocacy support function in NESDIS. NESDIS is, in effect, the Government’s
advocate and regulator for commercial remote sensing. This balancing act becomes more
complex as spatial technologies fuse.
U.S. firms in the remote sensing business do not believe that the Government promotes
national leadership in this field.518 The DoC is in a bind, however, because it is the USG’s
advocate and regulator for commercial remote sensing, a champion for unfettered (“free”)
access to remote sensing data as part of GEOSS, and a consumer of commercial environmental
data to support the national interest. It may become even more difficult for DoC to regulate
commercial remote sensing as fusion of data sources overtakes the intended effect of
regulating each one. Moreover, the DoC would find it hard to object to access to
environmental data via GEOSS from future civil systems such as Japan’s ALOS-3 in expected to
collect 1-meter resolution data beginning in 2014. Dual-use 1-meter systems such as South
Korea’s operational Kompsat-2 are already planned for use in Sentinel Asia, a multi-national
project where data are shared for disaster monitoring purposes.519520 For this reason, changes
may be needed in 15 CFR 960, such as not requiring full interagency review of license
applications for 1-meter imagery satellites intended for mass market use.
In the United States, commercial remote sensing is not part of the nation’s civil-sector
earth observation infrastructure. Although Congress requested a plan for sustainable national
Earth observation activities in the 2010 Consolidated Appropriations Act, there is no specific
role for commercial satellite imagery identified in a September 2010 Office of Science and
Technology Policy report.521 Vast amounts of commercial imagery are procured by DoD, but
these data are largely separate from infrastructure that manages the capture of Landsat
imagery. NOAA’s FY2009 - 2014 Strategic Plan states that an objective is to increase
government procurement of NOAA-licensed remote sensing systems, but does not specify what
this means regarding purchase of commercial satellite imagery.522 NOAA’s focus is
management of environmental satellite operations.523
NESDIS has over $1 billion out of the DoC’s roughly $8 billion annual budget, and is
responsible for the operation of 15 satellites, none of which are commercial remote sensing
satellites.524525526 NOAA’s focus ranges from climate and weather to ocean and coastal
518
J. Christian Kessler, Leadership in the Remote Sensing Satellite Industry, October 2008. 519
JeongHeon SONG, Contribution of KARI to Sentinel Asia, Korea Aerospace Research Institute, 6 July 2010. 520
Sentinel Asia website, https://sentinel.tksc.jaxa.jp/sentinel2/topControl.action, 2010. 521
The White House. Office of Science and Technology Policy. Achieving and Sustaining Earth 522
Department of Commerce, NOAA Strategic Plan, FY2009-2014, 523
Department of Commerce, http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/SatInformation.html, 2010. 524
Department of Commerce, NESDIS FY2011 Budget Highlights. 525
The White House. Fact Sheet on Department of Commerce FY2011 Budget.
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stewardship. NOAA has a keen interest and responsibility regarding the international Group on
Earth Observations (GEO) formed in July 2003, and a potential Global Earth Observation
Systems of Systems (GEOSS) that could include over 100 systems monitoring over 500
environmental parameters.527528 NOAA’s work on an Integrated Data Environment (IDE) for
GEO, in effect, broadens the ISE’s importance.529 In contrast, none of NOAA’s 31 performance
measures in 2009 to comply with the Government Performance & Results Act (GPRA) touched
on commercial remote sensing.530 This reflects a bright line between policies and issues
associated with unclassified U.S. Government owned and operated vis-à-vis commercial
satellites, even though a common use is for environmental monitoring.
There are options on what NOAA / NESDIS might say or do about commercial remote
sensing in a future strategic plan.
Retain status quo, taking into account any meaningful suggestions industry may
have made in response to DoC’s call for input on ways to “protect national security
that does not place the U.S. commercial remote sensing industry at a competitive
disadvantage with respect to foreign competitors.”531 It may be difficult, however,
to be the global leader on environmental data management if commercial imagery is
largely or entirely outside of the ISE. At a minimum, establish a GPRA criterion for
NOAA for commercial remote sensing, such as granting licenses for innovative
concepts as quickly as licenses for routine or proven solutions.
Increase the stature of Office of Space Commercialization. Chair and guide a revised
ACCRES, in cooperation with the National Coordination Office for Space-Based
Positioning, Navigation, and Timing on grounds that both provide location-based
services.532 The minutes of ACCRES meetings since 2002 do not indicate that the
Committee has dealt with or promoted the value of fused, location information (see
text box below).
526
FY2011 Department of Commerce Appropriations, www.agiweb.org, 21 June 2010. 527
Carrie McDougall, Atziri Ibanez, Susan White, Achieving Environmental Literacy with NOAA’s Observing Systems Data, Marine Technology Society Journal, Winter 2006. 528
The Global Earth Observation System of Systems 10-Year Implementation Plan, www.earthobservation.org, 16 February 2005. 529
Department of Commerce, NOAA Global Earth Observation Integrated Data Environment Concept of Operations, 13 September 2006. 530
Department of Commerce, 2009 NOAA Accomplishments and Performance Results. 531
Department of Commerce, Request for Information – Privately Operated Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites, 15 June 2009. 532
http://www.pnt.gov/orgchart.pdf, 2010.
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Place the commercial remote sensing licensing function inside DoC’s Bureau of
Industry and Security because BIS is responsible for export administration and
enforcement, including items of national security concern such as commercial
encryption products.533 Have NESDIS manage satellite operations for civil
environmental purposes only. This means DoC would review the record that led to
President Clinton’s 1996 determination that all encryption products no longer
needed regulation as defense articles on the U.S. Munitions List, and take a similar
approach with commercial imagery.534535536537538539540541542 Because 1-meter
resolution satellite imagery has become a commodity since 2000, easement in
licensing may make sense, similar to the way that “publicly available” commercial
encryption products with a specified key length are exportable with notification to
BIS, but not further review. Aligning the licensing activity for remote sensing and
encryption within BIS would give industry a single focal point in DoC for commercial
imagery and encryption. This would separate within Commerce the advocacy and
regulatory functions for licensing, and not allow a single management structure in
the Office of Space Commercialization to be both advocate and regulator for remote
sensing. Time for such action may be fleeting, however, due to ongoing challenges
regarding export control reform.543
Shift commercial remote sensing oversight to DoD for better than one-meter
resolution systems. Retain within Commerce licensing for lesser performing systems
designed for land use monitoring and environmental observation purposes. DoD
wanted strict alignment between 1984 law and NOAA-issued regulation pertinent to
commercial remote sensing licenses, including 15 CFR 960 when first issued on 15
July 1987. DoD’s view, in response to a 1986 NESDIS request for coordination on
draft regulatory text was that “…the discretion to determine the licensing conditions
necessary to meet national security concerns afforded the Secretary of Defense by
533
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, Annual Report to Congress, 2008. 534
Wikipedia, Export of cryptography in the United States, November 2010. 535
David E. Sanger, Clinton Ready for Exports of Data Codes, The New York Times, 1 October 1996. 536
The White House, Statement of the Vice President on Clipper 4, 1 October 1996. 537
The White House, Encryption Export Policy, 15 November 1996. 538
Clinton administration issues new rules on computer encryption technology, The Washington Post, 28 December 1996. 539
Even stronger encryption systems can be exported, The Baltimore Sun, 1 February 1997. 540
Congressional Research Service, Encryption Export Controls, 11 January 2001. 541
Department of Commerce, Guidance on Commercial Encryption Export Controls, November 2010. 542
Department of Commerce, Notification Requirements for Publicly Available Encryption Source Code, November 2010. 543
Jeff Foust, A fading opportunity for export control reform?, The Space Review, 11 October 2010.
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the Act should not be limited by NOAA’s rulemaking.”544 There is no reason to
believe that DoD’s role is less important today. DoD has a huge vested interest in
support to military operations, not necessarily the success of commercial ventures.
Change the 1992 Act, and allow “U.S. land remote sensing systems to provide
whatever level of spatial resolution or other technical specifications may be of
interest for civilian or commercial applications”, as recommended in 1992 by the
House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.545 For
example, licensing of 1 meter optical systems could be done by Commerce without
interagency review because such systems are commonplace. Foreign competition is
much stronger now than when the Committee stated that “These *foreign+ systems
operate within a commercial marketplace in which [U.S.] national security
constraints can cause significant competitive disadvantages.”
Be bold. Change the 1992 Act and transfer the entire satellite arm of NOAA to the
private sector, completely, or in stages, as suggested 20 years ago in a think tank
report.546 This may make more sense now because commercial GPS, commercial
remote sensing, and commercial encryption products in a cyber-savvy world are
more likely to be marketed in packaged applications instead of separately.
544
Craig Alderman, Jr. to Thomas Pyke, 22 January 1987. 545
House of Representatives, National Landsat Policy Act of 1992, HR 102-539, 28 May 1992. 546
A More Effective Civil Space Program, The Final Report of the CSIS Study of Civil Space Policy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 1989.
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Highlights of ACCRES Meetings, 2002 - 2010
30 September 2002: The Committee was briefed on a 10-year remote sensing industry analysis by the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS). The study was initiated through a 1999 agreement with NASA.
14 January 2003: The Committee was briefed again on the findings of ASPRS study which found that Government influence is pervasive, with legislation and policies restricting U.S. remote sensing sales. The number one user concern is cost of data. 16 May 2003: Government policy supports the industry by directing agencies to purchase commercial data, and to use government satellite data to meet only those requirements that cannot be serviced by the commercial sector. 27 August 2004: NOAA focuses on timeliness performance measures for license applications. In the future, NOAA will expand these measures to include foreign agreements and license amendments. U.S. government remains in a risk aversion mode. The focus is on protection of intelligence sources and methods. 2 February 2005: The Committee was updated on NOAA’s effort to revise its regulations. As part of an effort to respond to the new commercial remote sensing space policy, NOAA is in the final stages of coordinating within the Department of Commerce. 10 March 2006: The Government hopes to transition the Landsat program from a series of independently planned missions to a sustained operational program funded and managed by a U.S. Government operational agency or agencies, an international consortium, and/or a commercial partnership. The economic benefits of the system were questioned. 15 March 2007: The recommendation by ACCRES to eliminate the 24-hour restriction on distribution of certain types of remote sensing data is under consideration within the U.S. Government and a final decision is expected by next month. 27 March 2008: According to a 10-year industry forecast, data currency is continuing to increase in relative importance. 7 October 2008: A briefer pointed to an increasing preference towards smaller, lighter, faster missions for environmental monitoring, with climate change at the top of the earth observation agenda. The future of the industry will be characterized by further consolidation and integration as companies look to tap into the large but fragmented service sector. 8 October 2009: NOAA issued a license for a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite capable of producing 1-meter imagery for commercial sale. About ten percent of NOAA’s spending is on commercial remote sensing data.
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Appendix A
Key Points in the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992
This section contains extracts of text from the current United States law that governs
operation of commercial earth observation systems.
1. Section 2 (3). “The national interest of the United States lies in maintaining
international leadership in satellite land remote sensing and in broadly promoting the
beneficial use of remote sensing data.”
What it means: U.S. companies can argue that it is a legal requirement to have better
system performance than any non-U.S. system.
2020 version: No change needed.
2. Section 2 (15): “Development of the remote sensing market and the provision of
commercial value-added services based on remote sensing data should remain
exclusively the function of the private sector.”
What it means: After the failed 1980s attempt to privatize Landsat, the Congress did
not support government help for commercial remote sensing companies.
2020 version: The text should be revised to cover formal public private partnerships,
when it is in the national interest, because absent radical change in the industry it is
wrong to presume that this sector could sustain itself without Government funds.
3. Section 201(a)(2). “In the case of a private space system that is used for remote sensing
and other purposes, the authority of the Secretary [of Commerce] shall be limited only
to the remote sensing operations of such space system.”
What it means: This is generally understood to mean that licensing applies to safely
managing a spacecraft in orbit. The law does not say that licensing also relates to the
ability of a company to operate a ground processing system or data distribution
network, but data handling is a factor in 15 CFR 960. A company can obtain a license if it
can prove that it has the ability to fly a satellite and maintain its health and safety.
2020 version: The ability of the Government to control or regulate the flow of
commercial data needs clarification. Otherwise, the term “operations” is open to
interpretation.
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4. Section 201(c). “The Secretary *of Commerce+ shall review any application and make a
determination thereon within 120 days of such application.”
What it means: This is a specific rule. Companies complain that U.S. Government
agencies take longer than this. License requests considered precedent setting, such as
for a 1 meter resolution SAR system, usually take longer than 120 days to process.
2020 version: Shorten the timeframe to 60-90 days change to demonstrate U.S.
Government action to help make industry more competitive in the global marketplace.
5. Section 202(b)(6). “Any license issued pursuant to this title shall specify that the
licensee shall comply with all requirements of this Act and shall notify the Secretary [of
Commerce] of any agreement the licensee intends to enter with a foreign nation, entity,
or consortium involving foreign nations or entities.”
What it means: The U.S. Government wants to know how U.S. companies are involved
with foreign entities, especially if it involves foreign ownership. The U.S. Government in
general does not want to give a foreign entity rights to operate a satellite via a U.S.
company’s license.
2020 version: This should focus exclusively on foreign ownership and potential sales to
entities banned from purchasing U.S. goods. Regulating data flows in this highly
globalized sector inhibits commerce.
6. Section 204. “The Secretary *of Commerce+ may issue regulations to carry out this title.
Such regulations shall be promulgated only after public notice and comment in
accordance with the provisions of section 553 of title 5, United States Code.
What it means: This is the reason why 15 Consolidated Federal Regulation 960 is so
important. The public, not just companies seeking licenses to operate remote sensing
systems, has a right to review and comment on any regulations that implement the law.
2020 version: The regulation should be significantly streamlined, mindful that at this
point Google will be almost 25 years old. Simply stating that the Government has a right
to procure data pertinent for national security use, and retain it in a non-public archive,
may be one way to allow for public and non-public archives.
7. Section 507(a). “The Secretary *of Commerce+ shall consult with the Secretary of
Defense on all matters under this Act affecting national security. The Secretary of
Defense shall be responsible for determining those conditions, consistent with this Act,
necessary to meet national security concerns of the United States and for notifying the
Secretary *of Commerce+ promptly of such conditions.”
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What it means: DoD has a major role in deciding what commercial remote sensing
systems are licensed to operate. In fact, DoD’s view is arguably more important than
the Department of Commerce. This is why commercial systems that can also service
DoD needs, as well as DoD’s foreign military partners, get much attention in the license
review process.
2020 version: No change. DoD would retain this authority in light of the vast amount of
defense and intelligence funds invested in commercial systems.
8. Section 507(b). “The Secretary *of Commerce+ shall consult with the Secretary of State
on all matters under this Act affecting international obligations. The Secretary of State
shall be responsible for determining those conditions, consistent with this Act,
necessary to meet international obligations and policies of the United States and for
notifying promptly the Secretary *of Commerce+ of such conditions.”
What it means: The Department of State has a major role in deciding what commercial
remote sensing systems are licensed to operate. The power granted in law is significant,
especially for requests that involve potential sale of space or ground systems to foreign
entities, or placement of parts of the licensee’s infrastructure in foreign territory.
2020 version: No change. DoS would retain this authority because the United States
will always have international obligations. Since resource and environmental issues
could become a much more important factor for diplomacy in 2020 and beyond, the
DoS role in commercial imagery licensing would not be altered.
Key Points in 15 CFR Part 960, Final Rule, Dated 25 April 2006
This section contains extracts of text from the current United States regulation that
governs operation of commercial earth observation systems.
9. Subpart A: “Of particular interest is the fact that the Act and these regulations apply to
any person subject to the jurisdiction and control of the United States who operates or
proposes to operate a private remote sensing space system, either directly or through
an affiliate or subsidiary….a person is an individual who is a United States citizen, or a
foreign person subject to the jurisdiction and control of the United States…or any other
private remote sensing space system operator having substantial connections with the
United States or deriving substantial benefits from the United States that support its
international remote sensing operations sufficient to assert U.S. jurisdiction.
What it means: A license is needed if it involves processing the data and/or marketing
it from facilities within the United States. U.S. Government reviewers of license
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requests tend to consider operating a remote sensing system to include both the space
and ground segments.
2020 version: Some adjustment to this rule may be necessary because this already
globalized industry will increasingly rely on web services. Anyone inside the United
States would be able to market data or services, and not be an “operator” of a remote
sensing space system.
10. Subpart B, Section 960.11. “In furtherance of these obligations, the license contains
rigorous conditions on the operation of a system, including the requirement that the
licensee maintain operational control of its system from a U.S. territory at all times and
incorporate safeguards to ensure the integrity of system operations. In particular, it is
important to note that the license requirement imposed on the licensee that it maintain
operational control is an implementation of U.S. obligations under the United Nations
Outer Space Treaty of 1967.”
What it means: The reason why licensing was originally linked to operation of a space
system was potential U.S. Government liability for actions of a person or entity in the
private sector. The Department of Commerce has a requirement that operational
control of the system must be based within the territorial jurisdiction of the United
States. This is also the reason why the U.S. Government pays close attention to the
level of foreign investment in a U.S. company before granting a license to operate the
system.
2020 version: This rule may need adjustment to align with increased U.S. Government
activity regarding Space Situational Awareness, space debris mitigation and
international collaboration in these areas.
11. Section I – Annual Compliance Audit. “An on-site audit shall be conducted at least
annually, following issuance of a license, to confirm the licensee’s compliance with the
national security, foreign policy, and international obligations of the United States and
compliance with all other license conditions.”
What it means: Department of Commerce officials visit companies to review their files
and facilities for compliance with U.S. law and regulation.
2020 version: No change likely because U.S. Government funds remain vital for success
of the industry, and it is a condition of the license regardless of who is funding the
system. Verification is required.
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12. Section II – Twelve Months Before Launch. “Submit operations plan for restricting
collection and/or dissemination of Israeli territory to that which is no more detailed or
precise than what will be available from non-U.S. commercial sources during the time of
the licensee’s planned operations.”
What it means: The Kyl-Bingaman amendment to the 1997 Defense Authorization Act
imposed strict limits on space-based imaging of Israel. The best course of action for
U.S.-licensed remote sensing system operators is to not image Israel.
2020 version: No change because political factors would outweigh any substantive
argument.
13. Section III – No Later Than Six Months Prior to Launch. “Submit a data flow diagram
which graphically represents the data flow from the sensor to final product delivery
locations.”
What it means: U.S. Government reviewers are just as interested in details about data
flow on the ground as they are about satellite operations.
2020 version: Change is needed because delivery via the Internet means the companies
probably could not diagram their data flow to “final” locations, other than to www.
14. Licensing of New or Advanced Systems. “As a general matter, the license covers the
end-to-end operational capability of a remote sensing space system’s ability to quantify
information that includes, but is not limited to spatial, spectral, temporal, coherence,
and polarization properties of reflected, transmitted, or emitted electromagnetic
radiation.”
What it means: U.S. Government reviewers pay close attention to technical attributes
of the satellite system and its sensor(s). Performance limits may be imposed. Licenses
may be issued so that it can be operated at one level for all users, while reserving the
full operational capability for the U.S. Government.
2020 version: No change because huge increase in defense funding for commercial
systems from 2010 to 2020 arguably gives the Pentagon a stronger voice regarding
license conditions.
15. Licensing of New or Advanced Systems. “In issuing licenses for synthetic aperture
radar and hyperspectral systems, conditions or specific limitations may be placed, as
necessary, on operational parameters, design characteristics, and data throughput due
to national security, foreign policy, or international obligations.”
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What it means: U.S. Government reviewers can fundamentally affect the design and
use of a remote sensing system. The impacts may range from minor to major. For SAR
systems, geo-location accuracy is listed as a factor to be considered, as well as how the
phase history data are protected from unauthorized use.
2020 version: No change. The experience with TacSat-3 vis-à-vis Hyperion should give
the Government enough information to determine what to license for commercial use.
To adhere to a policy of U.S. leadership, however, comparison also needs to be made
with EnMAP’s performance which should be similar to Hyperion’s. The body of papers
and presentations on Hyperion applications should be reviewed as a baseline for
considering whether any proposed system with better spatial or spectral fidelity would
pose national security concerns.
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Appendix B
Europe’s Evolving Approach
Assessment
In the 1980s, SPOT was successful in the United States because it was technically better
than Landsat in terms of performance. Moreover, SPOT gained initial attention because it was
considered a threat to reveal secrets only detectable on classified American satellite imagery. It
spurred policy debates on what to do about high-quality images taken from space. Aggressive
marketing and publicity pushed by SPOT Image Corporation further advanced knowledge about
the system and its products.
In the 1990s, SPOT was initially successful because it was the best space-based system
that could provide unclassified imagery to the U.S. military and coalition allies prior to and
during the Gulf War. The sale of a direct receipt capability to the U.S. Air Force also enabled
SPOT to sell timely imagery to interested commanders. By 2000, however, SPOT lost traction in
the U.S. market because U.S. defense users had new access to commercial imagery from
American sensors, specifically Ikonos that was launched in 1999.
The greatest advantage for the newly formed Astrium GEO-Information Services will
accrue from a marketing strategy based on the principle that the “sum of the optical and radar
space-based and ground processing parts is greater than the whole.” Promoting Pleiades, for
example, in isolation as an optical alternative is not likely to gain traction, unless it guarantees a
significant price break from other offerings.
The period 2010-2020 could be a rebirth for Astrium GEO-Information Services after ten
years of competition from high-resolution U.S. commercial providers. Success hinges on (a)
successful launch of Pleiades 1 and 2; (b) successful capture of DEM customers from TanDEM-X;
(c) successful launch of SPOT 6 and 7; (d) convincing the Astrium worldwide user community
that multi-sensor service is key to their needs; and (e) maximum effort to further advance Pixel
Factory capabilities.
The earth observation community is in a decade of data overload. Customers will
want to spend their money on solutions that are not skewed to collecting more
information they are unable to use.
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Because Astrium GEO-Information Services arguably will have the most accurate
commercial earth observation data on the market for users requiring dynamic
service, the company can do very well with a goal of providing quality knowledge in
a timely manner, not perfection.
Specific steps that might illustrate the path of Astrium GEO-Information Services in this
decade include:
Fulfill the 2005 pledge of the SPOT CEO to carve out a substantial share of the
commercial high-resolution market that is a virtual monopoly of the United States.
Issue all promotional material to reflect the Astrium GEO-Information Services
brand, including material that blends what users need to know about SPOT 6 and 7,
Pleiades 1 and 2, TanDEM-X, and the Pixel Factory.
Ensure planning crossover in France and Germany for the successor systems to
Helios 2 and SAR Lupe. Both the optical and radar components of MUSIS may have
commonality with Pleiades and the SAR Lupe / TerraSAR successors.
Deliver on all promises made regarding the global elevation data service, for both
military and commercial users. Protect gains made in obtaining market share for
high-resolution optical imagery.
Morph the Pixel Factory so that it is known worldwide as the “geographic time and
place” machine that provides ready-to-use data for any GIS. Celebrate this moment
20 years after the 1995 Franco-German aerospace merger.
Ensure that the Astrium GEO-Information Services Reference 3D archive has a
complete DTED Level 3+ elevation layer, and orthoimagery to provide a world-class
locational basis for all satellite imagery sources that lack ground control.
In 2011, celebrate the 25thth anniversary of SPOT. Make it a joint effort of the
French and German embassies in Washington so that it also celebrates German X-
SAR / SRTM / TerraSAR / TanDEM success going back to 1994.
Ensure that the Astrium GEO-Information product and service line is clear and
understood, especially if products and services from Europe’s Global Monitoring for
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Environment and Security (GMES) project are provided to the public at little or no
cost, especially from the SENTINEL satellites.
The Path to Success
1990 was a defining year for Europe in this field because arms control monitoring
concern caused decision makers to chart a course they believed could be supported by
advances in satellite technology. On 1 January 1990, the SPOT-1 satellite was only European
imaging satellite in space. It was joined within weeks by SPOT-2, and the first European Earth
Resources Satellite (ERS-1) with a radar imagery sensor was planned for launch within one year.
Nonetheless, the WEU set forth a vision that gave rise to what has become a broad, multi-
national, politically-supported European effort with diverse space-based capabilities. The
collapse of the Warsaw Pact did not dash European momentum toward a future in space
independent of the United States, even though partnering projects were established in the civil
space area, and were considered for national security purposes. The need for an indigenous
European means of treaty verification was driven by the sheer land area of the Warsaw Pact,
and a political view that Europe had the technical ability to field satellites that support various
users.
Pre-1990 Impact of the SPOT Satellite
For decades, France has held a leading role developing Europe’s presence in space.
Steps were taken in internal French channels, and internationally as part of a major
contribution to the European Space Agency (ESA) formed in 1975. Dr. Pasco wrote in 2000 that
“Commercialization of capabilities appeared very early in the planning process as the most
convenient way to achieve a French or European space observation capability.” The 1970s U.S.
experience with Landsat civil program was positive, but what to do about the future of the
program was uncertain.
In September 1983, The Wall Street Journal called SPOT Image Corp. an “invader”.
With aggressive marketing tactics, “SPOT is encroaching on the very homeland of a global
monopoly enjoyed by the U.S. Government’s pace-setting Landsat satellites.”547 SPOT Image
Corp., however, was not affected by the criticism, and used an ad with a simulated SPOT picture
of Washington, D.C., noting that “…we’re launching a better way to look at your business.”548
547
Arlen J. Large, French Company to Offer Satellite Images of Earth as U.S. Monopoly in Field Unravels, The Wall Street Journal, 9 September 1983. 548
SPOT Image Corporation, In October 1985, We’re Launching a Better Way to Look at Your Business, 1985.
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Before launch it was called “the ultimate skycam” and the “next logical frontier for
journalism.”549
Even before the first SPOT satellite was launched, the French space agency approved
production of SPOT 3 and 4.550 Agreements with distributors in 32 countries had already been
struck, and a preliminary data evaluation program was organized to evaluate the data. 315
responses from 48 countries were received to a data call. Meanwhile, the SPOT Image Corp.
workforce in the United States was eight, with an increase to 15 expected by the end of the
year. According to pre-launch price list information, a color print from SPOT at 1:100,000 scale
was $515.00.551 Computer compatible tapes were priced at about three times more than
prints. In 1986, no fee was charged for programming the satellite. Prices were listed as
“subject to change.”
SPOT had luck on its side when launched in February 1986. The Ariane rocket was not
yet reliable and failed four times in 18 tries since its first launch in 1979, including the launch
prior to SPOT’s.552553 The Chernobyl reactor in the USSR exploded two months after SPOT’s
launch, giving news organizations worldwide their best overhead view of the scene.554555 CIA
Director William Casey commented on SPOT at a meeting of newspaper executives: “Oh, I
don’t think there’s anything we can do about it. Anybody can go out and get whatever
information they can get, the press and anybody else in any other country…”556557 A former CIA
official reportedly said he was “…not used to seeing pictures like that outside the agency.”558 In
2011, twenty five years after the accident, a satellite view of Chernobyl will be less relevant
because Ukraine plans to open up for visitors the sealed zone around the site.559
The SPOT project had positive publicity after launch.560561562563 Pictures taken by SPOT
of the Soviet space shuttle and naval facilities gave an indication of potential use of the system
549
Tony Mauro, Space Camera Raises Privacy, Security Issues, USA Today, March 1986. 550
Jeffrey Lenorovitz, France to Fund Two Additional SPOT Remote Sensing Satellites, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 5 August 1995. 551
SPOT Image Corporation, SPOTLIGHT, Volume 1, Number 1, 1986; How to Obtain SPOT Data, Fee Schedule, 1986. 552
The Washington Post, Ariane 2 Blown Up in Flight, 31 May 1986. 553
Aviation Week and Space Technology, Ariane Experiences Fourth Failure in 18 Missions, 9 June 1986. 554
Leonard David, Satellites for the Fourth Estate, OMNI Magazine, December 1986. 555
Tony Mauro, The Puzzling Problems of Pictures from Space, Washington Journalism Review, June 1986. 556
Nell Henderson, Civilian Satellites Penetrate Soviet Secrecy, Photograph Plant, The Washington Post, 2 May 1986. 557
Warren Strobel, Photo Satellites for Media Worry Intelligence Brass, The Washington Times, 11 August 1986. 558
Ibid. 559
Ukraine plans Chernobyl tourism, The Washington Post, 14 December 2010. 560
France’s SPOT Satellite Transmits Multispectral Images Following Launch by Ariane, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 3 March 1986.
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for military monitoring purposes.564565566567 SPOT marketing literature was graphic, including
the SPOT Image Corporation’s quarterly newsletter, and other handouts such as “A New Era in
Remote Sensing.” French satellite builder MATRA ran an advertisement describing the satellite
as “an image harvester…a new tool as yet unequalled in the world.” SPOT photos were
described as important in a full-page newspaper article.568
“In releasing these new, more precise views of the Earth, France whetted the news
media’s appetite for imagery of this kind and also poached on the surveillance turf
of the great powers.”
“The photos from SPOT are sharp…At times they reveal new strategic information…”
“SPOT photos have sex appeal because they disclose things that interest the casual
observer: factories, houses, boats, sometimes even planes and trucks.”
The ability to see planes and trucks was important because in November 1988 the WEU
debated whether to have an arms verification agency.569 This made sense because the
Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was realized in 1987. The WEU Assembly
considered a roadmap that by 1990 would include “a modest SPOT buying center in the region
of [$15 million US dollars], but in terms of political investment would prove invaluable as a
demonstration of European will.”
The WEU paper used as a basis for considering a verification agency noted that imagery
of different resolutions could be used for different verification tasks. The paper included an
“Example of imagery possible with SPOT-type satellites”, and an “Example of imagery from
reconnaissance satellites.” The comparative imagery was of Nikolayev, USSR. The magazine
Jane’s Defence Weekly claimed that it had “three exclusive pictures, taken by a satellite only
561
SPOT-1 Earth Resources Satellite Provides High-Resolution Images, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 10 March 1986. 562
Spy Satellites Come In From The Cold, U.S. News and World Report, 8 September 1986. 563
SPOT Earth Resources Satellite Beginning Commercial Operations, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 5 May 1986. 564
William J. Broad, Satellite Photos Appear to Show Construction of Soviet Space Shuttle Base, The New York Times, 25 August 1986. 565
Soviet Space Shuttle Facilities At Tyuratam Imaged by French SPOT, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 1 September 1986. 566
French SPOT Satellite Shows Soviet Northern Fleet Facilities, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 2 March 1987. 567
William Broad, Civilians Use Satellite Photos for Spying on Soviet Military, The New York Times, 7 April 1986. 568
Eliot Marshall, The New Spy in the Sky Race, The Washington Post, 27 December 1987. 569
Assembly of Western European Union, Verification: a future European satellite agency, Document 1159, 3 November 1988.
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last month.”570 The source of the imagery was not stated. Almost as a prelude to the 1988
WEU paper, another image of the aircraft carrier was used as an insert on a SPOT image of a
Soviet nuclear test site with an article by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist who
argued that arms control agreements can be verified.571
The WEU debate championed the prospect of a joint European satellite verification
system, noting that it “…could have great political significance.” By setting up a European
satellite monitoring agency, the WEU “…would be offering all its partners a coherent system of
monitoring from space.” Moreover, ties with the United States would not be weakened, but
strengthened: “Independent European analysis could well help, rather than hinder,
transatlantic cooperation.”
While Europe charted its own path on earth observation, a new U.S. National Space
Policy was also released in 1988, near the end of President Reagan’s administration.572 The
fundamental objective was space leadership, but the policy stated that “Leadership in an
increasingly competitive international environment does not require United States
preeminence in all areas and disciplines of space enterprise.” This may have signaled that the
United States was open-minded regarding space-related advances in Europe and elsewhere.
March to May 1990 in Europe
In the United States, the term “continuity” became a major focus in the earth
observation lexicon due to debate on preserving Landsat after the 1980s failed attempt to
privatize operation of the system. Continuity was a tenet in Europe because earth observation
could contribute to global transparency, and SPOT-2 had just been launched in January 1990.
WEU officials gathered in Rome in March to discuss the use of satellites for monitoring
disarmament associated with an evolving NATO-Warsaw Pact agreement on Conventional
Forces in Europe (CFE; November 1990). They set an enduring course on need for satellites.
Having indigenous European assets was a central theme.573
WEU Assembly President Mr. Charles Goerens: “If Europe wishes to retain control
of its own security, it must certainly not move away from the Atlantic Alliance, but,
as the United States Secretary of State called on it to do, it must be able to behave
as a true partner. It must have its own means of monitoring the deployment of
armaments and forces in Europe and throughout the world.”
570
Satellite pictures show Soviet CVN towering above Nikolaiev shipyard, Jane’s Defence Weekly, Volume 2, No. 5, 11 August 1984. 571
Kosta Tsipis, Arms Control Pacts Can Be Verified, Discover, April 1987. 572
The White House, Fact Sheet on Presidential Directive on National Space Policy, 11 February 1988. 573
Western European Union Assembly, Observation Satellites, A European Means of Verifying Disarmament, 27-28 March 1990.
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Netherlands Minister of Defence A.L. ter Beek: “At present the United States
shares information obtained by its satellites in a number of cases. For the last few
years, however, it has become clear that the US intends to make greater use of its
satellite surveillance capability for its own purposes. Pleas in the US Congress to
increase the number of satellites, each costing more than two billion dollars, are not
welcomed with enthusiasm, given the budgetary problems in the US.”
Dr. Hans Eschelbacher, German Chancellory Office: “The countries of Western
Europe – and in particular the Federal Republic of Germany as an important member
state of NATO, the EC, and the WEU – will be more dependent than ever in the
future on having a secure and up-to-date information base of their own if they are
to safeguard their politico-strategic, security, and economic interests as partners.
Space-based observation may be a decisive prerequisite for this.”
P. Goldsmith, Director of Earth Observation at ESA: “ESA, as the sole agency
responsible for space activities at the European level, could be the natural
framework to provide assistance and support to a European verification satellite
program, should such a program be decided.”
The WEU’s May 1990 publication of guidelines based on the symposium was a clear
statement that European observation satellites would be central to European security.574
“It should not be forgotten that the antagonism of the East and West during the cold
war…nevertheless had relative advantage of bipolar stability. With this no longer
being the case, the world will be a less orderly and sometimes even less secure
place.”
“…Islamic fundamentalism, a declared enemy of the western industrialized and
secularized world, is gaining importance among all nations along Europe’s southern
border. This fundamentalism, combined with ethnic and nationalistic ambitions and
a still increasing arsenal of armaments, is beginning to constitute a serious threat.”
“While maintaining the alliance with the United States, Europe will have to pull
together and respond to the new challenges. Only then will it be able to play its part
and guarantee its security in a changing world.”
574
Western European Union Assembly, Observation Satellites, A European Means of Verifying Disarmament, Document 1230, 25 May 1990.
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“With an apparently growing need for monitoring by satellite, for a number of
reasons, Europe, notwithstanding the existing capability in the United States, should
have its own observation satellite system.”
“Observation by satellite on a world-wide scale will be one of the key elements in
future security measures because it allows the development of threats to be
followed autonomously. Europe cannot rely only on the means of verification
written into arms control treaties.”
“Opponents of an autonomous European observation satellite capability always
refer to the existing American means which, it is said, will always provide the
European allies with the information they require. Without blaming the Americans,
it should be observed here that they only provide their satellite data up to a certain
point.”
“The United States is understandably reluctant to share with its allies extensive
information obtained from its satellites so as to not compromise its capabilities in
this field. This has been demonstrated time and again. Whenever the United States
has wished to denounce important events or developments in unfriendly territory
which no doubt had been observed in detail by their own satellites, it has always
made use of SPOT images…”
“The complete European dependency on United States satellite data was quite
embarrassing for some European governments during the INF crisis. The fact that
information obtained from satellite data was provided by the United States,
considered to be a biased party in the debate, did not help to calm down heated
emotions. There can be no doubt that in this case an autonomous European
observation satellite would have facilitated a rational debate.”
“For Europe, equal partnership with its American allies requires an autonomous
observation satellite capability in order to enable it to co-operate on equal terms
with the United States.”
The technical capabilities needed to address the WEU aspirations were described as a
full-scale system with day-night, all-weather capability, including optical, multispectral, and
radar sensors. Fielding an optical system was not deemed a barrier because the forthcoming
French Helios satellite had an “alleged” resolution of about one meter. Fielding a radar system
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suitable for verification purposes would be more difficult, but UK official noted that studies in
ESA pointed to using a steerable phased array antenna to provide “spotlight” mode imagery
with much higher quality than expected from ERS.
1990: Possible Partnership with U.S. Companies
The National Security Strategy of the United States in March 1990 called for greater
sharing of global leadership and responsibilities, and support for economic, political, and
defense integration in Western Europe. Against this backdrop, U.S. companies eyed possible
partnerships in Europe.
A U.S. company gave a briefing to WEU officials including comments on the WEU’s
May 1990 guidelines based on the Rome symposium.575 The U.S. firm estimated
that the cost for a complete earth observation system with one-meter optical, and
five-meter SAR satellites would roughly cost about $1 billion US dollars per year over
15 years. One of the company’s main points was that “An all European system will
be significantly more expensive than a joint European-U.S. program.” Whether this
assertion was correct is a moot point because a joint program was not realized.
Another U.S. company was approached by a German company about a possible joint
effort to build an optical satellite imaging system.576 The idea could have led to joint
work to field a 1-2 meter resolution system. The cooperation was not realized.
Meanwhile, German industry continued to work on optical satellite technology.
German technology has now advanced to the point where a system called Hi-ROS is
now possible, with a resolution of 0.5 meters.577 The German government would
decide whether to go ahead with the project.
1991: The Persian Gulf War
The 1991 Persian Gulf War gave SPOT imagery a chance to be relevant in planning for,
and execution of military conflict. United States Air Force Lt. General Charles A. Horner said
that “the accuracy of the SPOT satellite imagery was an invaluable asset to the offensive air
campaign.”578 According to a 2001 book on commercial observation satellites, between 1986
575
Lockheed Missiles and Space Co., European Plans for an Observation Satellite Program, 25 October 1990. 576
Eastman Kodak, Candidate Imaging System, Early 1990. 577
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Eyes Teaming with Industry for Its Own Optical Satellite System, SpaceNews, 16 October 2009. 578
Craig Covault, USAF Urges Greater Use of SPOT Based on Gulf War Experience, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 13 July 1992.
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and 1991 SPOT reported average annual revenue growth of 42 percent.579 An author who
worked on long-range planning issues noted in October 1991 noted that “new sources of
imagery will emerge over the next twenty years. The European Space Agency’s earth resources
satellites will be able to produce high resolution imagery, and will be able to image at night and
through cloud cover, a capability not possessed by most current satellites.”580
The Gulf War also gave impetus to France’s national reconnaissance efforts. Defense
Minister Pierre Joxe bemoaned the reliance on American intelligence during the war: “What is
the point of carrying a big stick if you are blind?”581 One year later on French television, Joxe
said that France would not have capabilities comparable to America for a long time, but “we
must not forget that during the Gulf war the Americans and allies used SPOT pictures.”
Developing a military satellite was necessary because modifications to SPOT would not
suffice.582583 Moreover, France was not alone in thinking about indigenous satellites.
Italian industry considered radar satellites for civil and defense applications,
resulting in 1996 government funding for a national earth observation program, and
later the COSMO-Skymed system as a core element.584585586587588589
The Gulf War and Warsaw Pact collapse also altered the American intelligence
enterprise.590 According to a statement by Director of Central Intelligence Robert M. Gates,
“…the world has turned upside down.”591 He noted that “One of the most difficult areas for us
to address was that of imagery…It is a critical capability but one that has been identified
repeatedly in post-mortems of Operation Desert Storm…I appointed a task force *which+
concluded that we needed a National Imagery Agency.” This led to the 1996 creation of what is
now the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
579
John Baker, Kevin O’Connell, Ray Williamson, Commercial Observation Satellites, January 2001. 580
Thomas Mahnken, Why Third World Space Systems Matter, Orbis, Fall 1991. 581
Alan Riding, France Concedes Its Faults in War, The New York Times, 8 May 1991. 582
Michael Mecham, Gulf War Rekindles European Interest in Developing Military Satellites, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 8 April 1991. 583
Craig Covault, Ambitious Decade Ahead for Europe’s Space Effort, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 15 March 1993. 584
G. Perrotta, SAR Sensors On Board Small Satellites, International Conference on Radar, October 1991. 585
G. Perotta, SAR Sensors On TACSATs: A Feasibility Assessment. 586
Wikipedia, COSMO-Skymed, 2010. 587
Italian Space Agency, Skymed-COSMO, 29 September 1998. 588
Alenia, SAR Technology, 21 July 2003. 589
www.eoportal.org, COSMO-Skymed, 2010. 590
Warsaw Pact Formally Ends, The Washington Post, 2 July 1991. 591
Robert Gates, Statement on Change in the CIA and the Intelligence Community, 1 April 1992.
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1991-1993: The European Union Satellite Centre
European aspiration for a space-based monitoring capability led to the June 1991
creation of the European Union Satellite Centre near Madrid, Spain.592 The Council of the
European Union terms the EUSC “…essential for strengthening early warning and crisis
monitoring functions”.593 The Centre’s mission is to provide “material resulting from the
analysis of satellite imagery and collateral data.” Article 21 made provision for non-EU
European NATO members to submit requests for imagery analysis, but there was no provision
for cooperation with the United States. When inaugurated in April 1993, however, WEU
Secretary General Willem van Eekelen left room for cooperation because European autonomy
would increase the odds for a balanced partnership.594
“The activities of this new body must be seen as the first stages of a much bolder
project to be carried out in the next century. Indeed, the planned establishment of
an independent European space-based observation system is consistent with the
strengthening of the European pillar of the Atlantic Alliance, as foreseen in the WEU
Maastricht Declaration. It is intended to develop a new autonomous system for the
benefit of all concerned. The possibilities for future cooperation between the
Centre and other corresponding bodies, particularly in Europe and in the US, on the
basis of a balanced partnership, will remain high on our agenda.”
Part of the cooperation was established in a 27 April 1993 Memorandum of Understanding
between the Helios partner countries and the WEU that enabled the Centre to gain access to
Helios imagery on 3 May 1996, according to WEU summary on the Centre’s history.
1994: Possible Partnership with the United States…and a Russian Overture
The U.S. military did not forget SPOT’s value. The first transportable SPOT ground
station was delivered to the U.S. Air Force just weeks after the U.S. Government released a new
policy on commercial remote sensing.595 Within a month, the Deputy Secretary of Defense
wrote to the chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board recommending
cooperation with allies in space-based reconnaissance, noting the possible advantage of cost
sharing.596
“…the Intelligence Community has been much too cautious in giving our NATO allies,
Japan, and others access to and a role in space based surveillance, reconnaissance,
592
Frank Asbeck, Geospatial Intelligence in Support of European Foreign and Security Policy, 8 December 2005. 593
Council of the European Union, Joint Action Statement on the European Union Satellite Centre, 20 July 2001. 594
Willem van Eekelen, Inauguration of the WEU Satellite Centre, 28 April 1993. 595
Peter B. deSelding, U.S. Military to Receive First Mobile SPOT Station, SpaceNews, 2 May 1994. 596
John Deutch to Les Aspin, 6 July 1994.
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and SIGINT. Initiatives in these areas will strengthen the alliance, spread the cost of
these expensive systems, and most importantly, avoid the risk that other countries,
notably France and Germany will develop their own satellite technology and
systems.”
The general idea for collaboration had merit because at the time neither France nor
Germany had a reconnaissance satellite. SPOT had proven its utility, but by the end of 1994 it
was still a separate program from the classified French Helios satellite project. French Defense
Minister Leotard announced that Helios 2 was in the definition phase with a projected launch
for 2001, but a media report suggested it could be “doomed” for budget reasons, especially
since space promoter Pierre Joxe was no longer leading French defense.597 Leotard kept Helios
alive, and projected that a new Franco-German agency would one day manage a joint satellite
program; “…what is Franco-German today will be European in the future.” France’s Prime
Minister Balladur stressed on 30 November 1994 to the WEU Assembly the importance of such
cooperation.
“This is an operational, technological, and industrial project which will emancipate
Europe in some measure in the matter of space reconnaissance. I say emancipate
deliberately. I discussed this subject yesterday evening and as late as this morning
with Chancellor Kohl at the Franco-German summit just held in Bonn. I have every
hope that the determination of our two countries will enable Europe towards
equipping itself with the operational resources that it lacks.”598
Prospects for cooperation with the United States were unclear, and Helios was well
along in development. Moreover, a German newspaper argued that the country needed an
independent capability to provide unfiltered information.599 The author claimed this was the
intent of a 1994 White Book on defense in Germany.
“For the early recognition of regional crises…and to defend its interests in
developing joint action plans within alliances and the United Nations, the federal
government requires an accurate, up-to-date view of the situation.”
Russia also seemed interested in an imagery partnership with Europe. Russian Foreign
Minister Kozyrev offered to provide satellite intelligence to the WEU.600 His proposal was to
“provide on a commercial basis the WEU Satellite Centre with photo information from our
satellites.” The landscape for a European future in space reconnaissance was complicated, but
597
JAC Lewis, Key projects threatened as France weighs up its options, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 24 July 1993. 598
Western European Union Assembly, Towards A European Space-Based Observation System, Document 1454, 2 May 1995. 599
Ruediger Moniac, Europe Will Get Eyes in Space if Germany Pays, Hamburg Die Welt, 19 March 1994. 600
Paul Taylor, Russia Proposes Far-Reaching Cooperation with WEU, 1 December 1994.
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momentum for an autonomous capability was clearly established as French funding for SPOT
and Helios increased.601
European Aerospace Merger; U.S. Cooperation Attempt Fails
1995 was a pivotal year for French earth observation projects, and transition to Franco-
German cooperation in this field in lieu of cooperation with the United States.602603 In May, a
U.S. official conveyed to the WEU Assembly the “…readiness and eagerness to increase the
level of cooperation between the United States, WEU, and all of our Atlantic partners with
regard to space systems.”604 Nonetheless, there were many subsequent press articles on
prospects for Franco-German satellite cooperation. The French press claimed that Aerospatiale
wanted an alliance with Germany’s Deutsche Aerospace (DASA) to win back some ground lost
to the United States. Helios 1A launched successfully in July. Technology Minister Francois
Fillon said “…we are putting in place the machinery that will enable Europe one day to have a
true European security policy, so it is a considerable development.”605
In July, French press indicated that an Aerospatiale-DASA merger was subject to a
pledge by Germany to join the Helios 2 project. But, it was a complicated political decision.
“Diplomats said Bonn is more interested in an advanced 24-hour, all-weather radar
satellite, tentatively dubbed Osiris or Horus, which would be launched around
2005.” Moreover, “Paris has been pressing the Germans to choose the European
project over an offer from the U.S. firm Lockheed Martin to buy its own spy satellite
for $500 million, less than half the cost of Helios.”606
“When it comes to observation from space, Germany is the standard partner with a
view to European defense, and area in which it could play a more active role.
However, this partnership is no easy matter. First, because the United States is
inviting Bonn to join forces with it by offering it a rival system that is up and ready to
run.”607
“…There will be money for Helios only if French participation in Horus is assured.”
Moreover, “The alleged commercial success of the French SPOT program is probably
601
French Satellite Decisions Affirm Space Policy, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 17 October 1994. 602
EUCOSAT Symposium, Satellite System for Security: a European Multi-User System, 20 September 1995. 603
Forschunginstitut der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Auswartige Politik, Franco-German Discussion Group on European Space Policy, June 1995. 604
Assembly of the Western European Union, A European space-based observation system, 24-25 March 1995. 605
Paris France-Inter Radio Network, 8 July 1995. 606
Alexander Miles, France to Launch First European Spy Satellite, Reuters, 6 July 1995. 607
Space – Europe’s Opportunity, Le Monde, 10 Jul 1995.
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also based on a bookkeeping trick. Neither the acquisition cost nor the high
expenditures for development are taken into account. The revenues for SPOT
pictures just about cover current costs. The development expenditures for the
civilian SPOT satellites can hardly be separated from those for the military Helios
series.”608
“If the Paris government has its way, Bonn will soon have to participate in the
French photographic satellite Helios 2.”609
“Germany is considering buying a Lockheed Martin optical spy satellite, and later
joining France in a future radar-equipped spy satellite, German officials said. The
Lockheed Martin proposal is less expensive for us, but we want to establish long-
term relations with France in a radar satellite.”610
There was little chance the United Kingdom would work with France on Helios 2
because “…the British government feels that Helios is very expensive and not
particularly advanced. In addition, intelligence officials believe that the relationship
with America and its vast spy network is much more important than forging new
links with Europe.”611
Discussions continued for months about possible Franco-German aerospace
cooperation. Expectations were that Germany would join the Helios 2 project, with German
leadership retained on the Horus project as a quid pro quo.612 A second U.S. company offered
two optical satellites for about $300-350 million.613 On 7 December, after a summit with
President Chirac of France, Chancellor Kohl of Germany told the press that “There has hardly
been any other summit at which we have reached as many decisions as we have here in Baden-
Baden.” Claimed achievements included a deal on the Helios satellite project, and a satellite
industry merger.
Aerospatiale’s president stated that the joint decision was very important for the
structure of the European defense industry.614 The DASA chairman said the decision
provided “…the conditions for progressive integration of the aeronautical, space,
and defense industries in Europe.” He thought it was an important step toward an
608
Eric Chauvistre, Ruehe’s Expensive Look Through the Clouds, Berlin Die Tageszeitung, 10 Jul 1995. 609
We Will Realize That, Hamburg Der Spiegel, 10 July 1995. 610
Germany Weighs Buy of U.S. Spy Satellite, DefenseNews, 11 September 1995. 611
James Adams, Britain in Spy Satellite Talks, The Sunday Times, 14 January 1996. 612
Carol Reed, Hopes High for Satellite Summit, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 1 July 1995. 613
Terry Straeter to Heinrich Rosenlehner, 25 September 1995. 614
Craig Covault, Recon Pact to Give Europe More Clout, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 18 December 1995.
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autonomous European security structure. Aviation Week wrote that the “Franco-
German deal heralds an autonomous security structure for Europe and bolstering of
the continent’s crisis-ridden aerospace industry.” Germany’s Soldat and Technik
magazine said that pooling was necessary to be competitive in the marketplace.
1995 was also pivotal for SPOT in the United States because it began to lose
momentum. Sales to the Department of Defense generally declined and flattened after the
1994 U.S. Government decision to encourage the growth of a commercial imaging industry.615
A media report stated that “The new technology will make for publicly accessible pictures at
least 10 times clearer than those from today’s best-resolution private system, the French SPOT
satellites.”616 The positive 1980s press reporting on SPOT as new technology was gone due to
prospects for new U.S. commercial satellite systems.617
The Franco-German aerospace merger had bumps along the way.618 In 1997, Germany
did not have funds for Helios 2, so France went ahead with the system alone.619 Similarly, due
to budget concerns, France abandoned plans to help Germany to build the Horus radar
satellite.620621 A spokesman for DASA in Friederichshafen, Germany, noted that “…everyone
agrees the future commercial competition in satellites is not between the Europeans, but
between Europeans and the Americans.”622
The imagery competition entered a new phase with the successful 1999 launch of the
commercial IKONOS satellite by the U.S. firm Space Imaging. The competition, however, was
limited to optical sensing, not radar imaging systems. Canada’s first radar satellite was
launched in 1995 on a U.S. rocket, in a partnership that provided data to the U.S. at no cost. A
copy of the first Radarsat-1 image was published on 1 January 1996.623 U.S. firms wanted to
operate SAR systems for commercial purposes at least as capable as a future Canadian satellite
called Radarsat-2, but were barred from doing so because DoD recommended a 5 meter best-
resolution limit.624 There was little apparent reason for concern by U.S. companies, however,
615
Clark Nelson, SPOT Image: U.S. Partner, September 2002. 616
Jeff Cole, New Satellite Imaging Could Transform the Face of the Earth, The Wall Street Journal, 30 November 1995. 617
Terrey Hatcher Quindlen, SPOT Image’s U.S. Arm Cuts Prices for Archived, New Imagery by 50%, SpaceNews, 20 April 1998. 618
Peter B. deSelding, Spy Satellite Effort on Hold Until June, SpaceNews, 20 May 1996. 619
France Plans to Start Work on Helios-2 Alone, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6 November 1997. 620
France to Shoulder Burden of Helios II, Jane’s International Defense Review, March 1998. 621
Peter B. deSelding, France Abandons German Horus Satellite Effort, SpaceNews, 13 April 1998. 622
Peter B. deSelding, French Move to Merge Space Divisions May Boost European Satellite Industry, DefenseNews, 20 October 1997. 623
David Hughes, Radarsat Delivers First SAR Image, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 1 January 1996. 624
Warren Ferster, U.S. Firms Demand Parity to Radarsat-2, SpaceNews, 9 March 1998.
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because the Government of Canada decided in June 1999 that legislation was needed to control
imaging satellites.625
“As modern remote sensing satellites can produce imagery whose quality
approaches that obtained from specialized intelligence satellites, we must ensure
that the data produced by Canadian satellites cannot be used to the detriment of
our national security and that of our allies.”
Canadian sentiment soured within weeks, however, because it seemed that American
rules would determine the capabilities of Radarsat-2, and how it could be launched, resulting in
increased cost and reduced performance. Industry Minister John Manley ordered the makers
of Radarsat-2 to take their business for satellite parts to Europe.626627 He accused the U.S.
Government of illegally applying U.S. rules to Canada --“We’re going to work on a European
solution.” Meanwhile, the Canadian military was reportedly investing in a way to receive “vital”
information from secret U.S. satellites.628629 This showed that cooperation and competition in
earth observation takes place at the same time.
The dispute between the United States and Canada had no apparent impact on plans in
Italy to field the Cosmo-Skymed system comprised of four radar satellites. According to a 1997
brochure by Alenia Aerospazio, the future Cosmo radar satellites would have a 3 meter
resolution, similar to Radarsat-2, and better than DoD’s preferred 5 meter limit.630
2000 – 2004: Franco-German Imagery Advances, and EU Security Strategy
Against a backdrop of emerging U.S.-European commercial imagery competition, the
successful February 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), flown jointly by NASA and
the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), was a good example of U.S. teamwork with
German aerospace.631632 But, another attempt at Franco-German cooperation emerged from a
June 2000 summit in Mainz, Germany.633 According to Reuters, the countries “…agreed to
cooperate on a spy satellite system that would cut Europe’s reliance on U.S. military
intelligence and revives an idea previously shelved as being too expensive…This bilateral
625
Government of Canada News Release, Canada to Control Imaging Satellites, No. 134, 9 June 1999. 626
Heather Scoffield, Ottawa to cut U.S. out of satellite project, The Globe and Mail, 11 August 1999. 627
Shawn McCarthy and Heather Scoffield, Satellite industry could be grounded, The Globe and Mail, 22 April 1999. 628
David Pugilese, DND’s $50M secret, The Ottawa Citizen, 13 May 2000. 629
David Pugilese, Spy satellites, The Ottawa Citizen, 25 January 2001. 630
Alenia, Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean Basin Observation, May 1997. 631
NIMA, NIMA / NASA Space Shuttle Mission, EDGE, July 1998. 632
Craig Covault, Radar Flight Meets Mapping Goals, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 21 February 2000. 633
Franco-German boost for EU Reform, BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk, 9 June 2000.
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initiative creates the basis for a European reconnaissance system that is open to other
European partners.”
The SRTM mission used a technique called Interferometric SAR to take images
simultaneously from two antennas, thereby creating an elevation map of the world.634635636
The technique was based on two Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-C) missions flown in 1994, also
known as X-SAR, because the missions involved both C-Band and X-Band collection. German
aerospace was involved in the X-SAR portion. German officials planned to use the X-Band
success as a “springboard toward a commercial imaging system called TerraSAR.”637
The SRTM mission cost $142 million, according to NASA.638 The X-SAR portion cost $40
million. A post-mission paper co-authored by NASA, the German Space Agency (DLR), and
university experts called the dataset “revolutionary.”639 They stated that “SRTM was an
example of engineering at its best; it marked a milestone in the field of remote sensing.” What
the paper did not say is that it gave German engineers more confidence that the future
TerraSAR-X commercial satellite system would be viable.
In 1997, well before the SRTM mission, an article in a German magazine claimed that
a third flight of X-SAR was a priority because Germany holds a leading position in the
field of radar technology that entails exceptional civil and commercial prospects.640
According to DLR, TerraSAR-X was begun in September 2001, about 18 months after
the SRTM mission, which was also roughly the end of the data processing period,
according to NASA.641
TerraSAR-X was described by DLR as “A national, operational science satellite with
commercial potential.” And as “…the scientific / technological continuation of the
highly successful national missions X-SAR (1994) and SRTM (2000).” A headline in
634
Craig Covault, Shuttle Maps the World, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 21 February 2000. 635
NIMA, SRTM DTED Fulfills Key Requirement of DoD and IC, EDGE, August 2002. 636
US Geological Survey, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 25 September 2003. 637
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Plans to Use X-Band Technology for Commercial Imaging, SpaceNews, 6 March 2000. 638
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, SRTM Mission Statistics, 14 March 2000. 639
JPL, DLR, and university authors, The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 2006. 640
Rolf-Peter Oesberga, Germany’s International Space Commitment, Bonn Luft Und Rahmfahrt, October 1997. 641
DLR, TerraSAR-X Mission, undated.
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2002 termed the system a test of public-private satellite partnerships.642643 Radar
imaging was a high priority in Germany.644645
On 10 April 2001, according to a newspaper, the United States was on a path to spend
$25 billion on a new generation of spy satellites called the future imagery architecture.646 The
Daily Telegraph in London reported that the United Kingdom wanted to be part of the project,
noting that participation would ensure that some “jobs come to Britain.” With regard to
commercial imagery, The Economist reported that “High launch costs, and the fact that the
biggest customers for high-resolution imagery are governments, are likely to sustain the cozy
relationship between commercial satellite operators and the military.”647 Nonetheless,
according to French defense analyst Francois Heisbourg, the pooling of information from Helios
2 and SAR Lupe would be “enough to keep the Americans honest” in telling other governments
what satellites see in a crisis. France also considered lowering security restrictions on Helios 1
imagery, and adjusting the price to reflect the availability of high-resolution data from the
commercial Ikonos satellite.648
Franco-German national earth observation programs moved ahead against a backdrop
of rising EU interest in a more coherent approach. A December 2001 report from the European
Commission to the Council and European Parliament concluded that due to “…competitive
pressure coming from other regions of the world, the European space actors cannot afford to
address issues in a dispersed and fragmented way.” The report stated that “a major challenge
lies in the coordination of the various emerging national, intergovernmental or international
initiatives and their resulting capabilities.” One such initiative is the EU’s Global Monitoring for
Environment and Security (GMES) project. According to the 2001-2003 EC Action Plan for
GMES, “by mobilizing scientists, industrialists, and politicians and the full range of satellite and
terrestrial observation technologies…Europe will have its own genuinely autonomous
surveillance capability.”649650 The future satellites in this project are named Sentinel. According
to ESA summary information on the Sentinels, they will complement, not replace or duplicate
national satellite initiatives.651 The first two satellites will have imaging payloads.
642
Peter B. deSelding, TerraSAR-X Will Test Public-Private Partnerships, SpaceNews, 15 April 2002. 643
Peter B. deSelding, Germany Agrees to Finance Commercial Radar Satellite, SpaceNews, 25 March 2002. 644
Christian Lardier, Germany is Relying on Radar Satellites, Air & Cosmos, 10 May 2002. 645
Peter B. deSelding, German Military Prepares for 2005 SAR Lupe Deployment, SpaceNews, 24 May 2004. 646
Joseph Fitchett, Spying from Space: U.S. to Sharpen the Focus, International Herald Tribune, 10 April 2001. 647
Private Eyes in the Sky, The Economist, 6 May 2000. 648
Peter B. deSelding, France Seeks to Boost Use of Helios, SpaceNews, 18 February 2002. 649
European Commission, Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), EC Action Plan 2001-2003. 650
European Commission, Towards A European Space Policy, 7 December 2001. 651
ESA, Sentinels Overview, www.esa.int, 2010.
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The SPOT 5 commercial satellite was launched on 2 May 2002, just two months after
ESA launched ENVISAT as the successor to ERS-type satellites. SPOT Chairman and CEO Jean-
Marc Nasr said that SPOT would, by mid-2003, be able to produce geo-referenced ortho-images
“automatically, quickly, and cheaply.”652 He also stated that “we are working with InfoTerra…to
leverage our respective offerings and create commercial synergies.” This was an indication that
combinations of optical and radar imagery can service an array of applications.
SPOT 5 was not designed as a direct competitor for American one-meter resolution
commercial satellites, but it provided a 2.5 meter resolution capability, with a 60km wide
swath, and stereoscopy. The French Institut Geographique National called SPOT 5 “a perfect
tool for mapping.”653 Before SPOT 5 was launched, the U.S. company DigitalGlobe agreed to
pay SPOT Image Corp. $50 million over six and one-half years for exclusive rights to distribute
SPOT products and services to the U.S. agriculture and defense markets.654
DigitalGlobe’s CEO said “…we must be able to partner with market leaders to
provide product options for our customers.”655 Within one year after launch, SPOT 5
caused a 48 percent increase in revenue for the SPOT company.656
Within weeks after the SPOT 5 launch, France and Germany agreed at a summit in
Schwerin on a common military satellite-supported optical and radar reconnaissance system;
“The combination of the two systems should contribute to the creation of a satellite
reconnaissance system for the EU, independent of the United States.”657 The Franco-German
bilateral deal did not, however, foreclose the possibility of including NATO states in light of a
Spring 2002 idea to explore multinational satellite cooperation that could be considered at a
November 2002 NATO Summit in Prague. This fleeting opportunity came about because
European satellite monitoring of CFE treaty limited equipment east of the Urals would be
possible with Helios 2 and SAR Lupe. Although France was in the vanguard of European
observation satellite efforts, Germany needed a radar satellite due to lack of U.S. support
during the Kosovo conflict, but “privileged” UK access to imagery from U.S. spy satellites made
the British reluctant to develop national or European observation satellites.658659
652
SPOT Image, SPOT 5 Global Coverage, Accuracy, and 3D Vision, SPOT Magazine, no. 34, 1 st
Semester 2002. 653
Dominique Lasselin, SPOT 5 Thematic Potential for Planimetric Cartographic Applications, 2002. 654
DigitalGlobe to Pay SPOT Image $50 Million for Imagery Rights, SpaceNews, 8 April 2002. 655
Joint DigitalGlobe and SPOT Press Release, 25 January 2002. 656
Peter B. deSelding, SPOT 5 Sales Increase Company Revenue 48% in 2002, SpaceNews, 28 July 2003. 657
Thomas Gutschker, Germany and France Want to Strengthen the EU Militarily, Frankfurter Allegemeine, 31 July 2002. 658
Charles Grant, Europe Needs More Space, New Statesman, 20 May 2002. 659
Germany to Receive Own Satellite Reconnaissance System, Berliner Zeitung, 31 July 2004.
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Although Helios 2 and SAR Lupe were not factors in NATO’s Capabilities Commitment
discussed in Prague, the line of the EU toward the United States was clearly stated in the
European Security Strategy published in December 2003.660 The key premise is that U.S.-
European ties benefit from a capable Europe.
“The transatlantic relationship is irreplaceable. Acting together, the European Union
and the United States can be a formidable force for good in the world. Our aim
should be an effective and balanced partnership with the USA. This is a reason for
the EU to build up further its capabilities and increase its coherence.”
By the end of 2004, the SPOT CEO said that “…we will continue to increase resolution
while maintaining the largest possible scene size, and we will still give the fastest response for
users. The high resolution Pleiades constellation will gather top quality images at 0.5m
resolution, comparable to any on the market today or in this decade, and we will provide
unrivaled access to imagery and the information contained within.”661662 This projection was
only months after the integration phase for TerraSAR-X began at Friederichshafen, Germany.663
According to the magazine, in early 2004 InfoTerra chose SPOT “…as the sole agent for the sale
of all products and services derived from TerraSAR, particularly in countries where SPOT Image
has channel partnership agreements.”
Satellite experts at the German Space Agency (DLR), in a 2004 perspective on earth
observation satellites and services for the next decade, wrote that InfoTerra GmbH
was “…in negotiation with several international customers for direct data reception
in their respective countries. Experiences with marketing partners such as SPOT
Image contribute to the globalization of such national missions.”
DLR was correct that globalization in earth observation was well under way. An easy
way for the public to use satellite imagery was near at hand. In October 2004, as consolidation
of the SPOT InfoTerra product line took shape, the company Google in the United States
acquired a company called Keyhole. Keyhole owned a huge library of satellite imagery and
developed 3D imagery display services.664 By Spring 2005, Google offered a new service called
Google Maps. Using Google, users can view either images or maps. Google’s products became
part of the geospatial technologies market, estimated in 2005 by the United States Department
of Labor to have annual revenues of $30 billion.
660
European Union, A Secure Europe in a Better World, European Security Strategy, 12 December 2003. 661
Joe Francica, Executive Interview with Jean-Marc Nasr, SPOT Image’s CEO, 14 December 2004. 662
Jon Fairall, Interview with Jean-Marc Nasr, Asian Surveying and Mapping, 20 December 2004. 663
TerraSAR-X Satellite Integration Underway, SPOT Magazine, no. 38, 2 nd
Semester 2004. 664
Google and CIA Connection, www.intelligenceonline.com, No. 498, 15 April 2005.
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Germany’s TerraSAR-X and Italy’s Cosmo-Skymed radar satellite projects were well
underway when the first European Space Council meeting took place on 25 November 2004.
According to ESA’s website, the then chairman of the EU Competitiveness Council stated that
“Space technologies and applications will help Europe to reach its common goals in the field,
i.e., competitiveness, environment, and security.” The EU Commissioner for Enterprise and
Industry noted that “The industrial dimension of space is key to increasing the competitiveness
of European industry.”665666 According to an article by DLR with a ten-year perspective on earth
observation, resources for preparatory studies for GMES were released in September 2004, and
future hyper-spectral imaging satellite called EnMAP would be studied.667 Such studies took
place against the reality that satellites called Pleaides, RapidEye, TerraSAR-X, and Cosmo-
Skymed would be launched. The authors noted that the political focus of GMES, and the
European Defense and Security Policy, would “drive and amplify” demand for earth observation
data of various types. With the political framework in place, the authors argued that “…the
European [earth observation] market becomes very attractive for both service suppliers and
customers.”
2005 - 2009: The Rate of Change Accelerates
European earth observation satellite efforts gained quick success when Helios-2A
became operational in April 2005. Images from flight acceptance testing had “stunning clarity”,
including images of Las Vegas, Nevada.668 A magazine claimed to have access to the images,
but could not show them to readers because they were classified.669 Some weeks later, it was
reported that the high resolution thermal infrared sensor had provided operational images.670
The satellite produced optical images claimed by the French Defense Ministry to be several tens
of centimeters in resolution.671 The French Joint Defense Staff later confirmed that the satellite
was also producing better-than-expected infrared imagery.672 According to Colonel Christophe
Morand, “The infrared feature has been a real success…we have been able to evaluate many
industries that make extensive use of cooling systems.” The news about Helios 2 was good
news for SPOT because the post-Helios 2 satellite system to be deployed by 2015 “…will bear
665
European Space Agency, First ever Space Council pave the way for a European space programme, www.esa.int, 25 November 2004. 666
Wikipedia, European Space Agency, www.wikipedia.org. 667
Gunter Schreier, Stefan Dech, High Resolution Earth Observation Satellites and Services in the Next Decade, October 2004. 668
Jean Dupont, Helios-2 Soon in the Military’s Hands, Air & Cosmos, 25 March 2005. 669
Ibid. 670
Helios-2 Acquires Night Sensing Capability, www.intelligenceonline.com, 1 July 2005. 671
Peter B. deSelding, France’s Helios 2A Recon Satellite Produces First Images, SpaceNews, 31 January 2005. 672
Peter B. deSelding, Helios-2A Sheds Light on Refineries, SpaceNews, 24 September 2007.
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strong resemblance to the civil-military Pleiades satellites to be launched in 2010 and 2011, but
will have a sharper ground resolution.”673
As the new Helios-2A settled into service, the SPOT company gained the rights to
market South Korea’s Kompsat-2 data outside of Korea, the Middle East, and the United States.
SPOT Chairman and CEO Herve Buchwalter projected that gaining a foothold in the very high
resolution market would be a major challenge, but that there is “…huge potential for combining
optical and radar data in many application areas. The TerraSAR-X satellite will give us the
chance to offer customers a really comprehensive range of products and services. This unique
capability will further consolidate our market position.”674
InfoTerra Germany projected in March 2005 that the SAR earth observation market
was about $60 million, roughly about 15 percent of the overall spaceborne earth
observation market.
Combining datasets seemed to be the wave of the future. In November 2005, the
EU Commission’s spokesman for industrial policy, in announcing the pilot state for
GMES, stated that the project is intended to exploit assets belonging to individual
nations.675 Nations would retain control of their satellites, but collected data would
be shared.
SPOT’s corporate mission as of 2006 was “To deliver satellite imagery and geographic
information solutions to private and public sector worldwide.” The transition would take the
company from providing products to the scientific community in the 1980s, to providing
imagery to governments and the commercial market over 20 years later. Whereas 19 percent
of the company’s 2005 revenue was gained in North America (70 percent of this from defense
and intelligence), 39 percent was gained in the Asia-Pacific region. This strategy was presented
just before the May 2006 announcement that DLR and Astrium would cooperate on the
TanDEM-X satellite, according to German press reporting. The mission would be to generate a
“…worldwide, consistent and homogeneous terrain model with no discontinuity at regional or
national borders, and no inconsistencies resulting from different measurement protocols or
measurement efforts staggered in time.” The satellite would cost $110 million, only three
times more than X-SAR flown on the Space Shuttle in 2000.
TerraSAR-X was launched into space in June 2007, and the TanDEM-X project was
well underway. The first of five successful SAR Lupe German military radar imaging
satellites was launched in December 2006 (the final satellite was orbited in July
673
Peter B. deSelding, France Begins Work on New Reconnaissance System, SpaceNews, 16 June 2009. 674
SPOT, 2005 – A Year of Consolidation, SPOT Magazine, No. 40, 2 nd
Semester 2005. 675
David Rennie, EU to Build Network of Spy Satellites, London Daily Telegraph, 15 November 2005.
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2008). Moreover, the first Cosmo-Skymed satellite was also in space. According to
German media reporting, Colonel Reinhard Pfaff said SAR Lupe was a “quantum leap
in the acquisition of information.”676677
The variety and number of satellites launched by French, German, and Italian industry
went from virtually none between 2000 and 2005, to several in the last five years.678 This rapid
expansion was one of the reasons that six European nations began work in mid-2007 on ways
to coordinate future space-based reconnaissance systems, such as sharing imagery from
multiple satellites, in a project called Multi-national Satellite Imaging System (MUSIS).679 This
meant that data sharing paradigms were being examined within both the GMES and MUSIS
projects. The capability to process and share imagery among several nations would be core to
MUSIS. 680681
2008 was a significant year regarding earth observation programs in Europe as a whole.
The Germany firm RapidEye AG launched a fleet of five, innovative small commercial satellites
designed to quickly monitor change to vegetation, especially crops.682 Dr. Ray Williamson
wrote that the approach “…could well revolutionize the business of remote sensing.”683 ESA
signed contracts for two Sentinel observation satellites for GMES.684 Atrium Services decided to
take over the 41 percent share of SPOT held by CNES.685686 This would give Astrium Services an
ability “…to develop an integrated strategy for the full range of earth observation services and
applications, along the entire geo-information value chain, according to Astrium CEO Eric
Beranger. This move aligned with a White Paper on defense produced in June 2008 that
recommended giving “great prominence” to space intelligence.687688 Prime Minister Francois
Fillon said that the White Paper “…gives a central role to capacities of reconnaissance and
676
Friedich Kuhn, Look at Every Corner of the Earth, Berlin ddp, 27 July 2008. 677
Nicholas Fiorenza, Fast Intel With SAR Lupe, Defense Technology International by Aviation Week, November 1998. 678
Michael Hales, Foreign SAR Satellites on the Rise, Earth Imaging Journal, January / February 2008. 679
Peter B. deSelding, Six European Nations Eye Space-Based Reconnaissance Systems, SpaceNews, 11 June 2007. 680
Henry Kenyon, European Nations Focus Space-Based Observation Capabilities, SIGNAL Magazine, October 2007. 681
Jean Guisnel, MUSIS, The Future of European Space Espionage, www.lepoint.fr, 21 November 2008. 682
F. Jung-Rothenhausler, RapidEye – Small Satellites Gone Operational, 31 March 2009. 683
Dr. Ray Williamson, The Game Continues to Change…and Ever More Quickly, Imaging Notes Magazine, Fall 2008. 684
ESA Signs Contracts for Two Observation Satellites, SpaceNews, 18 April 2008. 685
Michael Taverna, Astrium’s Takeover of SPOT Image Positions it to Lead in Space Imagery, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 21 July 2008. 686
EADS Astrium Press Release, Astrium purchases majority share in SPOT Image, 15 July 2008. 687
Space to get boost in French defense review, Reuters, 6 June 2008. 688
Pierre Tran, France Readies Satellite Launches, DefenseNews, 6 November 2008.
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anticipation.” This would result in a budget for space of about $500 million in 2008, increasing
to $1 billion in 2020.689
The EUSC reported in 2008 that acquisition of satellite imagery is a prerequisite of the
Centre’s work. The Centre claimed that it “greatly improved” its access to imagery from
commercial and governmental sources. Although commercial sources comprised the largest
share of imagery used by the Centre, “…governmental imagery is very important to EUSC…and
guarantees European autonomy.”
The importance of coordination across civil and defense earth observation programs
and ground-processing gained increasing prominence in 2008. According to a vision statement
on European Space Policy by the EU Council’s Competitiveness Council on 26 September, the
vision called for improving synergy between civil and defense space programs.
Consolidation requires much attention to processing data from multiple sensors in
an efficient, timely manner. A product called Pixel Factory by InfoTerra France is a
solution for the problem of too much imagery.690691692 The Pixel Factory is a product
to process data from many sensors. This digital geo-production processing capability
is described in marketing literature as “The Next Generation Solution for Industrial
Geo-Production”.
Recommendation 830, adopted by the EU Assembly on 3 December 2008, stated
that 40 percent of the MUSIS budget is devoted to the ground segment because
“…even the best-performing satellite architecture is useless without an equally
efficient ground segment to receive the images.”693
The MUSIS plan was ratified on 5 March 2009, and would involve the European
systems to succeed Helios 2, SAR Lupe, Italy’s Cosmo-Skymed, and Pleiades in about
the 2015-2017 timeframe.694 MUSIS is consistent with the EU’s December 2008
report on implementation of the 2003 European Security Strategy, i.e., “…to be still
more capable, more coherent, and more active.”
689
Defense: France is Going to Launch its Space Spies, www.francesoir.fr, 15 November 2008. 690
InfoTerra brochure, Pixel Factory – The power of an industrial solution in your hands. 691
Peter B. deSelding, Pixel Factory Provides Increasingly Popular Cheap and Easy Imaging, SpaceNews, 24 November 2008. 692
Rolta to Use InfoTerra’s Pixel Factory Image Processing Technology, www.itnewsonline.com, 9 December 2009. 693
EU Assembly, Recommendation 830 on the Multinational Space-based Imaging System (MUSIS), 3 December 2008. 694
Julian Hale, 6 EU Nations to Develop Satellite System by 2015, DefenseNews, 6 March 2009.
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Strengthening space capabilities for military missions was mentioned in the
December 2008 report on Strategy implementation.695 This task is assigned to the
European Defense Agency (EDA). According to EDA, one of the tasks in MUSIS is to
seek synergies with civilian earth observation programs, in particular with GMES.696
In the past year, the rate of change continued to accelerate. The future SPOT 6 and 7
satellites, along with Pleiades, and TanDEM-X “…will give Astrium a fleet of imagers and a
portfolio of geo-information services unparalleled in the industry.”697 The challenge for the
future is to align a major increase in collection capacity with processing output to service high,
medium, and low-resolution needs. In 2008, revenue at SPOT was about $150 million, an
increase of almost $100 million since 2002. The upside potential is significant because sensor
diversity provides alternative data sources and solutions.
Increased product accuracy and timely delivery of solutions will be expected by
commercial and military users. Because a Pleiades replacement will be needed by
about 2015 or soon thereafter, commonality between the replacement system and
Helios 3 seems likely. Helios 3 may be comprised of three satellites, including one in
a lower orbit to maximize resolution.698
In June 2009, TerraSAR-X marked two successful years in orbit, according to an
Astrium press release.699700701 “What has been particularly impressive is the
outstanding geo-location accuracy of better than 0.5 meters. This allows fully
automatic, pixel-accurate superposition of two images of a scene acquired at
different times.”
French military space spending is on path to increase about 8 percent per year, and
ESA signed more contracts for GMES-related earth observation satellites.702703704705
695
European Union, Report on the Implementation of the European Security Strategy, 11 December 2008. 696
European Defence Agency Press Release, New EDA Project on Space-Based Earth Surveillance System, 5 March 2009. 697
Michael Taverna, Going Private, Aviation Week and Space Technology, 15 June 2009. 698
A Third Satellite Considered for French Helios System, SpaceNews, 6 February 2009. 699
Astrium Press Release, TerraSAR-X marks two successful years in orbit, 15 June 2009. 700
InfoTerra Press Release, TerraSAR-X performance confirmed by US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, 12 March 2009. 701
German TerraSAR-X remote sensing sat launched, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, 19 June 2007. 702
Peter B. deSelding, France Seeks Military Space Investment Partners, SpaceNews, 27 November 2009. 703
Peter B. deSelding, ESA Signs New Contracts Worth Over 500 Million Euros, SpaceNews, 18 December 2009. 704
ESA News Release, Strong support for GMES at space conference, www.esa.int, 20 October 2009. 705
Peter B. deSelding, Europe’s Ambitious Global Monitoring Program Taking Shape, SpaceNews, June 2009.
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In November 2009, ESA member states approved the Sentinel Data Policy that
ensures free-of-charge access to all Sentinel data.706707 One year later, European
ministers voiced support for GMES even though funds are lacking.708
2010 and Beyond
European nations individually and collectively have a bold range of commercial, civil and
military earth observation satellite projects.709 European political, industrial and commercial
interests all know the importance of success. The satellites already in space and in
development have spatial and spectral features that can service a wide variety of users, but the
earth observation community is in a decade of data overload. Customers will want to spend
their money on solutions that are not skewed to collecting more information they are unable to
use. For this reason, advances made in ground processing and product line may be far more
important than the satellites.
706
ESA News Release, ESA Member States approve full and open Sentinel data policy principles, 27 November 2009. 707
Peter B. deSelding, European Officials Embrace Open Data Policy for GMES Satellites, SpaceNews, 30 June 2010. 708
Peter B. deSelding, European Ministers Voice Support for Galileo, GMES, SpaceNews, 26 November 2010. 709
Peter B. deSelding, ESA Budget Rises to $4B as 14 Nations Boost Contributions, SpaceNews, 21 January 2011.
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Appendix C
Japan’s Evolving Approach
Assessment
The 1980 U.S. intelligence judgment that Japan would become a competitor in
commercial imaging did not give a timeframe. In retrospect, the competitive threat was not
imminent in the ‘80s and has still not become certain. This could begin to change by 2015,
assuming that a future commercial optical satellite known as ASNARO by NEC is successful.
Meanwhile, the Information Gathering Satellite (IGS) program focus of satellite imagery
developments and expenditure in Japan likely will remain central to Japanese national security.
Moreover, the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) program will continue, but due to
lower imagery resolution it is not a near-term serious threat to the defense and intelligence
business core to DigitalGlobe and GeoEye success.
Japan’s first Marine Observation Satellite (MOS-1) launched in 1987 was designed to
monitor natural resources, even though an American magazine reported that the satellite could
image airfield runways and taxiways.710 Japan’s first “spy” satellite in 2003 was also based on a
system designed for earth resources monitoring, not intelligence tasks. Japan’s 2008 Basic Law
on Outer Space now, however, gives official latitude for Tokyo to use satellites for defense and
security. Commercialization efforts, moribund for decades due to a focus on “R&D” satellites,
are now sanctioned and could become vibrant.
Post-World War II Mapping of Japan
Japan’s main reason for having the current Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) is
to make maps, not analyze images for defense and security purposes. In fact, Japan’s current
need to monitor the Earth for defense and security purposes has evolved from a domestic
mapping function based on the 1945 creation of the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) in the
Ministry of Construction. Within a few months after the 1951 Treaty of Peace between the
Allied Powers and Japan, the U.S. Army Map Service agreed to map Japan.711 This included
providing copies of post-war aerial imagery taken of Japan which is available today in GSI
archive.712
710
Aviation Week and Space Technology, 23 March 1987. 711
Memorandum of Agreement, U.S. Army Map Service and GSI, 13 April 1952. 712
http://www.gsi.go.jp
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The GSI now has a modern mapping capability based on aerial and ground surveys.
Because it is difficult, however, to collect aerial photos in remote areas far from the Japanese
mainland, GSI uses satellite images from ALOS launched in 2006. The ALOS imaging capability is
similar to the French SPOT system with a 2.5m resolution sensor, and is the civil counterpart of
Japan’s Information Gathering Satellite (IGS) system first launched in 2003 for intelligence
purposes (see graphics713714). This approach roughly parallels the way France evolved its Helios
intelligence satellite from SPOT first launched in 1986.
1986: Japanese Latitude for Flexible Imaging Future
In December 1986, the United Nations adopted principles relating to remote sensing of
the Earth from space. The United States and Japan did not consider the principles to be
binding, and noted that creating a legal instrument such as a treaty was not necessary or
desirable.715716 In retrospect, retaining latitude for the use of such systems helped Japan
develop three successor satellite systems for MOS, ultimately leading to the IGS series. The
design for the Japan’s Earth Resources Satellite (JERS), for example, was completed in 1987.
The satellite, which included both optical and radar sensors, was launched in February 1992 to
monitor natural resources.717
1991 - 1997: Increased Focus on Japanese Satellite Effort
Officials in the United States were aware of and concerned about prospects for satellite
imagery developments in Europe and Japan. In December 1991, a proliferation expert in the
U.S. Department of Defense assessed that “How European and Japanese civil and military space
programs are operated will be of serious military concern to DoD.”718 A law was signed in the
United States in 1992 to re-establish Landsat as a Government program. 719 In a House of
Representatives Report 102-539, foreign competition was cited by the House Committee on
Science, Space, and Technology as a factor in the legislation. “These *foreign+ systems operate
within a commercial marketplace in which [U.S.] national security constraints can cause
significant competitive disadvantages.”
713
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=20242.0 714
http://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos/index_e.html 715
United Nations, Principles relating to remote sensing of the Earth from space, A/RES/41/65, 3 December 1986. 716
Daphne Lincoff, Annual Review of United Nations Affairs, Oceana Publications, Inc., 1986, p. 96. 717
http://jaxa.jp/projects/sat/jers1/index_e.html 718
DoD / ISA Memorandum, Military Implications of Commercial Space Technology, 30 December 1991. 719
U.S. Congress, “Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992”, Public Law 102-555, 28 October 1992.
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Information Gathering Satellites (IGS), 2003-Present
Service Module (SEM); Flew in 2002 as part of USERS
Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), 2006-Present
Japan’s spy satellite program relates to two other
satellites begun in the 1990s. Mitsubishi Electric
(MELCO) was awarded a design contract for the IGS in
March 1999 (Steven Berner, Japan’s Space Program,
RAND, 2005. p. 17). The timing was good for MELCO
because it had a new, multi-purpose satellite bus in
design called the Service Module (SEM).
According to MELCO, the SEM’s mass of 800kg can be
augmented with 800kg of payload. The SEM can be
operated in an earth-facing mode to support earth
observation missions. MELCO’s goal was to build
satellites more quickly with lower recurring costs (see
MELCO ADVANCE Magazine, Vol. 86, June 1999, p. 5-7.)
The SEM first flew in 2002 as part of the Unmanned
Space Experiment Recovery System mission, months
before the first IGS launch on 28 March 2003. [Note the
similar appearance of SEM’s box-like structure on USERS
and IGS (see www.spacetoday.org)]. USERS flew in a
500km altitude orbit, about the same as IGS (see
www.spaceandtech.com). This would result in better
quality imagery than from ALOS at 700km.
The bus for ALOS was built by NEC. The decision to use
MELCO’s SEM for the IGS -- resulting in a less than
2,000kg IGS versus 4,000kg for ALOS -- may have been
made in part to gain lifespan in space. Sensors for IGS,
however, were probably based sensors designed for
ALOS due to available technology. The optical imagery
would be about 1-meter resolution. (Steven Berner,
Japan’s Space Program, RAND, 2005. p. 19). North
Korea’s August 1998 TaepoDong-1 missile launch
occurred as the SEM and ALOS were in development.
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On 10 March 1994, the Department of Commerce hailed President Clinton’s “New Policy
on Remote Sensing Space Capabilities.”720 This was described as an effort to increase global
market access for American business, and help create jobs. Six weeks after the Department of
Commerce announcement, a license was granted to Lockheed Missiles and Space Company to
operate a private remote sensing system.721 The timing of the license was almost concurrent
with an idea in the U.S. Department of Defense to do more with allies regarding space
cooperation. The Deputy Secretary of Defense wrote to the chairman of the President’s
Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board recommending cooperation with allies in space-based
reconnaissance, noting the possible advantage of cost sharing.722
“…the Intelligence Community has been much too cautious in giving our NATO allies,
Japan, and others access to and a role in space based surveillance, reconnaissance,
and SIGINT. Initiatives in these areas will strengthen the alliance, spread the cost of
these expensive systems, and most importantly, avoid the risk that other
countries…will develop their own satellite technology and systems.”
Experts in the United States knew in 1995 that Japan did not have a military imaging
satellite, but noted that unilateral control of subsystems and components for such satellites
would not be a viable policy option to prevent this development.723 Companies such as NEC,
MELCO, Fujitsu, Ohara Glass, Tokyo Opto-Electronics, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Oki, IHI, and Sharp had a
range of technical capabilities. Japan’s Advanced Earth Observation System (ADEOS), launched
in August 1996, had an 8 meter resolution sensor, better than SPOT or Landsat.724 ADEOS-I
failed after one year in space, but for a brief period Japan seemed on par with Europe in
satellite imaging capability. Moreover, the 1995 formation of the Defense Intelligence
Headquarters (DIH), with a 50-member Satellite Image Analysis Division pointed to military
interest in a satellite.725 That was consistent with the JFY1996 National Defense Program
Outline that called on JDA to be “capable of high-level intelligence gathering and analysis,
including strategic intelligence, through possession of diversified intelligence gathering means
and mechanisms.”726
In 1996, it was clear that Japan would be able to build and deploy a 2.5 meter resolution
imagery satellite. There was little apparent competitive threat from Japan, however, because
expected U.S. commercial satellites would be superior. Prime Minister Hashimoto told the
720
The White House, Presidential Decision Directive 23, 10 March 1994. 721
Robert S. Winokur to Albert E. Smith, 22 April 1994. 722
John Deutch to Les Aspin, 6 July 1994. 723
Berner, Lanphier and Associates, Inc., Proliferation of Imagery Satellite Capabilities, February 1995. 724
http://landportal.gsfc.nasa.gov/sensor_detail.php?sid=23 725
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/japan/dih.htm 726
http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/security/defense96/contents.html
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Asahi Shimbun newspaper that Japan might develop a reconnaissance satellite for security
purposes, if necessary.727 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leaders discussed the need for this
satellite.728 Because this was not technically possible in a short time, JDA sought agreements
with U.S. companies Space Imaging and Earthwatch for access to future high quality
commercial satellite images.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) engaged in a 1997 effort to find a way to obtain
satellite imagery for intelligence purposes. MOFA asked the Diet for the equivalent of $40,000
to study having an international intelligence gathering satellite.729 Hearings were held in March
on this subject. NEC estimated the cost to be about $2.4 billion USD, but funds were not
available. As a result, momentum to build an intelligence satellite was not enough to drive a
program. Meanwhile, Japan’s National Space Development Agency (NASDA) pursued ALOS for
mapping and environmental monitoring purposes.
1998 - 2000: Japan Decides on Intelligence Satellite
MOFA again sought funding for JFY1998, beginning 1 April 1998, to study having an
intelligence satellite.730 This was opposed by the United States because the U.S.-Japan alliance
involved supplementing respective capabilities, not duplicating. After the 31 August 1998
launch by North Korea of the Taepo Dong 1 missile over Japan, however, LDP officials quickly
proposed that Japan should launch four satellites (two optical and two radar), to obtain images
with resolution as good as 1 meter.731 The satellites would orbit at about 500km above the
Earth. Mitsubishi Electric Company (MELCO) informed the LDP that it could launch a satellite by
2002 / 2003.732 JDA Administrative Vice Minister Akiyama focused on the importance of having
an independent capability.
“Japan and the U.S. must cooperate in information gathering under the Japan-U.S.
Security arrangements…However, if we do not have our own methods to collect
information, the cooperation would remain inconsistent and defective.”
By mid-1999, a U.S. defense official stated that Japan’s decision to build its own
intelligence satellite had merit, but that Japan should first buy a complete satellite from the
United States, and use it as a stop gap until Japanese industry could produce a system.733 The
official said reports that the United States did not provide intelligence information to Japan
727
EarlyBird Tweaks the Law, http://www.spacedaily.com/spacenet/text/spy-97a.html, 1997. 728
Kazuto Suzuki, Japanese Remote Sensing Policy at Crossroads, 1999. 729
Asia Eye’s Japan’s New Military Intelligence Unit, The Christian Science Monitor, 21 March 1997. 730
Kyodo News, 6 January 1998. 731
Intelligence Satellites Urgent for Defense, Japan Times, 30 October 1998. 732
Mitsubishi Recce Plan Gains Ground in Diet, Aviation Week and Space Technology, November 1998. 733
Asahi News, 23 July 1999.
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were untrue. That was no reason for Japan to build an intelligence satellite. On 29 September,
U.S. and Japanese officials signed an agreement on parts and components for the project.734
Nearly $800 million USD was requested by Japan’s Cabinet Office for JFY2000 to execute a
program that could eventually cost up to $3 billion. The U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense said
that collaboration on satellites was a good example of the U.S. philosophy on industrial and
military cooperation, to ensure interoperability whether or not the specific hardware is the
same.735 Some months later, a bipartisan, independent group of U.S. experts on Asia stated
that the United States should support Japan’s “reasonable” desire to have independent
intelligence capabilities, including satellites.736
2001 – 2004: Technical Risk, Operational Success, and Performance Reality
Developing the intelligence satellite was an urgent priority for Japan. Chief Cabinet
Secretary Fukuda said the project will be of “great significance in the nation’s history” when he
opened the Cabinet Satellite Information Center (CSICE) in April 2001.737 He made a point
about independent access to information that is often made in Europe about intelligence
satellites.
“The new system will enable our nation to establish ways to gather information
independently, leading us to have plural sources of information. This will
significantly reinforce the information gathering capability of not only the Cabinet,
but the entire government.”
Fukuda made his point weeks ahead of a critical test launch of the H-IIA rocket that had
failed in two previous launches. Without the H-IIA, Japan could not launch the planned
intelligence satellites. On 29 August, the launch was successful, giving Japan renewed hope for
success in space-related activities.738739740741 Arrangements for satellite tracking stations in
Australia were announced in October, giving the intelligence satellite project an international
cooperation aspect other than with the United States.742 According to a JDA official, the
satellite project was important because “The United States wouldn’t share information if
Japanese national interests conflicted with U.S. national interests.”743
734
U.S. Gains Foothold in Japanese Contest, Defense News, 11 October 1999. 735
John J. Hamre, U.S.-Japan Defense Industry Cooperation, Speech in Tokyo, 26 November 1999. 736
The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership, INSS Special Report, 11 October 2000. 737
Spy Satellite Office Set Up by Cabinet, Japan Times, 3 April 2001. 738
One Last Try for Japanese Rocket, The Washington Post, 26 August 2001. 739
Launch Success of the H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 1, NASDA Press Release, 29 August 2001. 740
Japan’s New Rocket Soars on Maiden Flight, CNN.com, 29 August 2001. 741
Japan’s Ailing Space Program Boosted by Rocket Launch, The Washington Post, 30 August 2001. 742
Australia to Help Japan Launch Four Spy Satellites, Japan Times, 17 October 2001. 743
Government Preparing for Launching of 1 st
Spy Satellites, The Daily Yomiuri, 13 August 2002.
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The Japanese government announced in early January 2003 that the first intelligence
satellites would be ready for launch by the end of March.744745 There were concerns, however,
that the satellites would not be able to take pictures as good as American commercial satellites,
mainly due to inferior sensor and satellite performance.746 The reported reason that Japan did
not buy a satellite from Lockheed Martin was to try to “boost Japanese industry.”
The use of ALOS-type technology for the Information Gathering Satellites suggests that
Japan did not have either the time or skill to quickly develop and launch a high-resolution
intelligence satellite. ALOS was well along in design by 1998 on a path toward a launch in
2002.747748 By March 2001, however, the lead engineer’s status report on ALOS stated that
launch would not be until “2003/6”, even though NASDA’s website as of October 2001 still
listed the 2002 launch date.749 The priority for IGS may have been much higher than for ALOS.
The main difference between the programs is that IGS satellites have much less mass, and orbit
at a lower altitude than ALOS (500km vs. 700km).750 Moreover, the optical and radar sensors
for IGS are mounted on separate satellites.
The two ALOS-type sensors pertinent for use on the IGS are the Panchromatic Remote
Sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) and the Phased Array L-Band Synthetic
Aperture Radar (PALSAR). According an Australian partner of Japan’s Aerospace Exploration
Agency (JAXA), the PRISM can collect 2.5 meter resolution imagery, and PALSAR can collect 6.25
meter resolution radar imagery in the azimuth direction.751 The data quality would be better
for IGS satellites flown at lower altitude.
The launch of the first two IGS satellites on 28 March 2003 was successful. Having their
own satellites was important to Japanese officials.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda: “We can use the satellites not only for gathering
intelligence information, but also for monitoring damage from a natural disaster.
We will make the fullest use of them possible. Other countries are doing it.”752
JDA Director General Ishiba: “It is meaningful for us to obtain by ourselves
information to ensure the peace, safety, and independence of our country.”753
744
Government Commission OKs Launch of Reconnaissance Satellites, Tokyo Jiji Press, 8 January 2003. 745
Spy Satellites to Watch N. Korea, The Daily Yomiuri, 4 March 2003. 746
Japan’s Spy Satellites Inferior to U.S. Commercial Ones, Japan Economic Newswire, 28 December 2002. 747
Takashi Hamazaki, Overview of the Land Observing Satellite, 1998. 748
http://alos.jaxa.jp/topics/news-e.html 749
Takashi Hamazaki, Overview of the ALOS Satellite System, 27 March 2001. 750
http://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos/index_e.html 751
http://www.ga.gov.au/remote-sensing/satellites-sensors/alos.jsp 752
Rocket Carrying Japan’s First Spy Satellite Launched, Tokyo AFP, 28 March 2003.
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Within weeks, however, the quality of the imagery was reported to be 2-3 meters in resolution,
not 1 meter as was hoped.754 Investigation was in progress to see how this might be improved.
Meanwhile, the JDA bought commercial one-meter imagery from a United States supplier. The
second pair of IGS satellites was launched on 29 November 2003, but the H-IIA rocket failed to
put them in orbit.755756 Even so, the IGS program was not abandoned.
Abandoning the IGS project in 2004 was not possible, in part, because Japan began to
extend the international use of its military forces, including up to 1,000 troops for a role in
southern Iraq. The first group of Japanese soldiers deployed to Iraq on 16 January, crossed into
the country from Kuwait on the 19th.757758 2004 was also an important milestone for U.S.-Japan
relations, 150 years after the first bilateral treaty.759 Meanwhile, RESTEC’s involvement with
training for CSICE analysts continued, and the Japanese government decided to start research
on an advanced spy satellite with 0.5 meter resolution for launch in 2010.760761
2005 – 2010: Renewed Success and Problems for IGS and ALOS
The performance of the IGS system led to criticism that its development was
inefficient.762 The government gave three different ministries authority to distribute funds for
the IGS. Moreover, an organization of “middlemen” in a chartered corporation called Japan
Resources Observation System Organization (JAROS) took money that caused the contracting
process to be inefficient and wasteful. Discussions took place on allowing the CSICE to contract
directly with the IGS manufacturers.
The first ALOS satellite was launched on 24 January 2006, years after the initial plan.
Plans to launch two more IGS satellites in 2007 were set.763 Just as the initial technical
performance of the IGS was suspect, ALOS was not able to fulfill the requirements of the
Geographical Survey Institute to make maps. According to thermal distortion on the satellite,
ALOS was not able, without ground control points, to provide the height accuracy needed to
make 1:25,000 scale maps.764765
753
No Sign of N. Korean Missiles as Japan Launches Spy Satellites, Japan Today, 29 March 2003. 754
Doubts Raised About Capability of Reconnaissance Satellite, Asahi Shimbun, 7 June 2003. 755
http://wapedia.mobi/en/Information_Gathering_Satellite. 756
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Gathering_Satellite. 757
Japanese Army Team Leaves for Iraq, The Washington Post, 17 January 2004. 758
Japan in Historic Iraq Deployment, www.cnn.com, 19 January 2004. 759
150 Years of U.S.-Japan Relations, The Washington Post, 31 March 2004. 760
Overview of CSICE Related Support Projects, RESTEC, 11 August 2004. 761
Japan to Develop New Spy Satellite to Monitor North Korea, Kyodo World Service, 25 September 2004. 762
Spy Satellites Waste Billions, Tokyo Asahi Shimbun, 28 March 2005. 763
Japan to Launch Two More Spy Satellites by March 2007, Kyodo News, 6 January 2006. 764
Japanese Satellite Flops at Mapmaking, Tokyo (AFP), 8 January 2008. 765
Briefing on Utilization of Data Acquired by DAICHI for Maps, by GSI and JAXA, 16 January 2008.
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Part of the reason for problems with IGS and ALOS related to the 1969 Diet resolution
on use of space for non-military purposes only. This made it difficult to specify the
performance requirements for a satellite that could perform intelligence and military tasks. In
March 2006, a subcommittee in the Diet discussed creating a new law that would allow space
to be used to support defense needs.766 North Korea tried to launch a TaepoDong-2 rocket on
5 July, but the IGS was not able to monitor the situation due to low resolution of the
satellites.767 Nonetheless, Japanese government sources bragged that “It is more effective to
see with our own eyes, even if the performance is inferior.”768
Technical barriers regarding IGS did not slow down Japanese government interest in a
higher performance satellite, or cooperation on mapping with the United States.769 Research
and development was underway for a satellite with a resolution of 0.4 meters and the ability to
change camera angles for imaging.770 This would reduce the number of satellites needed
because satellites that look straight down are not flexible for intelligence purposes. Due to
increasing challenges in the East Asia security environment, more capable satellites would be
needed.
On 11 September 2006, Japan successfully launched the third IGS satellite. The satellite
had an optical sensor. Someone who worked on ALOS told the Japanese media that the IGS
was modeled on ALOS, but could not process a large volume of data at high speed that works in
space.771 For this reason, improving resolution would take time. An Australian space expert
suspected that to improve performance Japan changed the sensor on IGS to a telescope instead
of a scanner.772
Satellite performance problems did not reduce Japan’s interest in the IGS. Two more
satellites were launched on 24 February 2007, including one with a radar sensor and one with
an experimental optical “apparatus” to test an improved resolution capability for future
satellites.773774775 Prime Minister Abe stated that he hoped “Japan’s space program will mark
results that are appropriate for a leading nation in space.”776 Within weeks after having a full
766
Cabinet Post Likely for Strategic Space Exploitation, Asahi, 29 March 2006. 767
TaepoDong-2 Failure; Japan Relied on US Data Due to Insufficient Satellites, Asahi, 1 September 2006. 768
Third Spy Satellite Will Soon Be Launched, But Cost and Operation are Problems, Asahi, 10 September 2006. 769
Japan, U.S. to Exchange Topographic Data, Kyodo News, 21 December 2006. 770
Government to Develop High Performance Intelligence Satellite, Nihon Keizai, 9 September 2006. 771
Japan Successfully Launches 3 rd
Intelligence Satellite, Asahi, 12 September 2006. 772
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Guessing_Games_For_Japan_Information_Gathering_Satellite.html, 11 October 2006. 773
Tokyo Launches New Spy Satellite, BBC News, 24 February 2007. 774
Japan Successfully Launches Satellites, Kyodo News, 24 February 2007. 775
Japan Successfully Puts Final Spy Satellite Into Orbit, Jiji Press, 24 February 2007. 776
Japan Unveils Spy Satellite Network, Associated Press, 27 February 2007.
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set of four IGS satellites, however, one of the two radar satellites reportedly failed.777
Moreover, the newest IGS optical satellite launched on 28 November 2009 also reportedly
failed.778 This was not the case, but in August 2010 the only remaining IGS radar satellite failed,
making it impossible to image in darkness or cloudy weather.779780 The satellite was only three
years old, two years short of life expectancy.
2008: New Japan Law on Outer Space
Japan’s Basic Law on Outer Space was approved by the Diet on 21 May 2008 (Law No.
43 of 2008).781 The Upper House approved it by a vote of 221-14.782 This law now allows use of
space for defensive purposes. The 1969 ban on non-military use was lifted. The new law is
intended to promote space development that contributes to national security, including
military use of “high-grade spy satellites”.783 Another objective is to strengthen the capability
of domestic industry and international competitiveness. On 27 August 2008, a Headquarters
for Space Policy was formed under the Cabinet Secretariat to lead the work on a
comprehensive space plan, across all affected ministries. 21 staff members were assigned to
this activity, including two from Defense.784 Before the law, neither MOFA nor MOD was
involved in forming space policy because it was not a national security activity. Inside Defense,
a Maritime and Space Policy Office was formed to help clarify the use of space assets in the
military.
Before the 2008 law, the Ministry of Defense indicated that it used commercial optical
imagery from the U.S. satellites Ikonos, QuickBird, Worldview-1, and GeoEye-1.785 The data are
provided by U.S. firms to two Japanese distributors (Japan Space Imaging, and Hitachi Software
Engineering Co.).786787 One of the U.S. firms specifically advertises that the imagery can be used
for defense and intelligence, including monitoring of forces, military facilities, weapons
development and storage, mapping, and 3D modeling. The MOD also receives commercial
radar satellite imagery from Germany’s TerraSAR-X and Canada’s Radarsat-2. The imagery is
777
http://www.strategypage.com, 1 April 2007. 778
Japanese Highly Classified Information Gathering Satellite IGS-5 Has Failed. http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?20242.0 779
Japan’s lone radar intelligence orbiter breaks down, The Yomiuri Shimbun, 29 August 2010. 780
Japanese spy satellite over DPRK out of commission, The Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru, 29 August 2010; www.satnews.com, 30 August 2010. 781
Briefing on Background Information on Basic Law of Outer Space, 2008. 782
Japan Parliament OKs Space Defense Bill, Associated Press, 21 May 2008. 783
Lawmakers to Submit Bill to Let Japan Use Own Spy Satellites, Asahi Shimbun, 9 May 2008. 784
The Basics of Japan’s Defense Policy and Build-up of Defense Capability, p. 123. 785
Ministry of Defense Briefing, Space-Related Defense Policies and Future Topics for Consideration, November 2008. 786
http://www.geoeye.mediaroom.coom/index.php?s=43&item=288 787
http://www.digitalglobe.com/index.php/53/Providers?provider_id=15
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usable by Defense because the Diet in 1998 allowed military use of publicly available data from
imagery satellites. The MOD did not indicate any use of IGS imagery, however. Under the new
law, one of the MOD’s objectives in using space for national security is to “strengthen existing
intelligence functions”, including the intent to “improve the capability of image satellites.”
Future Plans for IGS and ALOS
Japan’s new law on outer space has caused planning to move ahead on future IGS
satellites with improved resolution.788 The future of IGS seems assured, as an independent
means of intelligence collection for Japan. The CSICE plans to launch an optical satellite with
0.4 meter resolution capability in 2014, based on a demonstration satellite to launch in 2012.789
On 2 June 2009, the Cabinet’s new Space Policy office recommended that an unspecified
number of IGS satellites be developed and flown over the next ten years.790791 In a 2009
Japanese space products catalog, NEC offers the Small Standard Bus that could conduct a 0.5
meter resolution imagery collection mission known as the Advanced Satellite with New
Architecture for Observation (ASNARO) project.792 This satellite is also known as the Small
Advanced Satellite for Knowledge of Earth (SASKE).793794 The goal is to field a commercially
competitive lightweight, high-resolution imaging satellite, including to possible customers in
Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America.795 NEC considers ASNARO to be part of a new
generation of satellites based on the NEXTAR bus.796
The future of ALOS also seems assured. ALOS-2, planned for launch in 2013, will have a
radar imaging payload capable of 1 meter resolution in the azimuth direction.797798 ALOS-3
would have a 1 meter resolution optical sensor, and be launched later on its own
platform.799800801 The apparent design and approach for ALOS 2 and 3 is similar to the desired
capability of the IGS national security program when conceived over ten years ago. This
788
Paul Kallender-Umezu, Japan Rebuilding Spy Satellite Capability, Inching Forward on Military Space Choices, SpaceNews, 14 February 2011. 789
Japanese Government Plans Powerful Information Gathering Satellite, Yomiuri Shimbun, 2 February 2009. 790
Missile Warning System at Forefront of Japan’s New Space Policy, SpaceNews.com, 5 June 2009. 791
Japan Space Plan Calls for Doubling Space Budget, Parabolic Arc, 11 May 2009. 792
The Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies, Directory of Japanese Space Products & Services, 2009. 793
Norihiko Saeki, Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry; Briefing on SASKE R&D Program, International Commercial Remote Sensing Symposium, 4 March 2010. 794
Shuichi Kaneko, METI, Policies on Japanese Space Industry. 795
Yu Toda, Hayabusa fires up space industry, Yomiuri Shimbun, 4 August 2010. 796
NEC, Advanced small standard satellite system NEXTAR, http://www.nec.co.jp/solution/space,2010. 797
Yukihiro Kankaku, JAXA, Overview of the L-Band SAR On ALOS-2, 18 August 2009. 798
Briefing by JAXA, ALOS-2 and Its Follow-on Satellite, ALOS-2, 3 November 2009. 799
http://www.space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/alos-3.html 800
http://www.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009SPIE.html 801
Hiroki Imai et al, A Conceptual Design of the Optical Satellite for the Post-ALOS Program, JAXA, November 2009.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 110
suggests that lessons learned from the performance of IGS satellites since 2003 may have
influenced the design for the future ALOS-2 and ALOS-3.
The performance of both the IGS and ALOS systems may not have met technical
expectations regardless of cost. For the IGS this was estimated to be about $600 million USD
per year since 2003, not including the satellites which cost billions more.802 Over the course of
the past decade since the 1998 Taepo Dong 1 launch by North Korea, this suggests over $6
billion has been spent on the program. As of 2007, according to a study in the United States,
Japan had invested over $4 billion in the IGS project.803 This is a much greater expenditure than
a rough estimate of $1 billion for two optical and two radar satellites provided in 1999 by
Lockheed Martin for Japanese consideration.804 Nonetheless, Japan learned about industrial
and strengths and weaknesses by building and operating its own satellite imagery systems.
Former Prime Minister Hatoyama’s call for more equal ties with the United States
suggests that independent Japanese intelligence satellites would help balance the relationship,
similar to the way Europeans value these capabilities.805 The result is that both sides can bring
intelligence evidence to the table when there are disagreements over whether a North Korean
rocket shot is a missile test or a satellite launch, reportedly one of the main reasons why Japan
sought its own satellites in 1998.806
Once imagery satellite programs become part of a nation’s security fabric, the programs
tend to become permanent “eyes” on the globe. Japan may need as many satellites as possible
to monitor China, especially if a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea, and
Japan’s access to resources such as rare earth minerals mined in China remain
unresolved.807808809810811812 Japan’s National Defense Program Guidelines reflect the need to
address the China threat.813814815 An American author notes that “passivity encourages China’s
802
Maeda Sawako, Transformation of Japanese Space Policy: From Peaceful Use of Space to The Basic Law on Space, http:www.japanfocus.org/articles/print_article/3243 803
Manuel Manriquez, Japan’s Space Law Revision: the Next Step Toward Re-Militarization?, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies, January 2008. 804
Lockheed Martin, Informational Presentation, SAR and EO Considerations, July 1999. 805
Japan Leader Wants More Equal Ties with U.S., www.foxnews.com, 3 January 2010. 806
Japanese to Create a Spy Satellite System, www.stratfor.com. 2 November 1998. 807
Cara Anna, Chinese Protest Japan claim to islands, The Washington Post, 16 October 2010. 808
Seima Oki, China calls off joint gas seabed talks / Move response to seizure of fishing vessel, Yomiuri Shimbun, 12 September 2010. 809
China and Japan Meet Amid Dispute, The New York Times, 30 October 2010. 810
Keith Bradsher, China Said to Widen Its Embargo of Minerals, The New York Times, 19 October 2010. 811
Keith Bradsher, China Still Bans Rare Earth to Japan, The New York Times, 10 November 2010. 812
China cuts export quotas for rare-earth minerals, Reuters and The Washington Post, 29 December 2010. 813
Chico Harlan, New Japanese defense plan emphasizes China threat, The Washington Post, 13 December 2010. 814
Government of Japan, National Defense Program Guidelines for FY 2011 and Beyond, 17 December 2010.
Innovative Analytics and Training, LLC. Proprietary 2012. Page 111
new world order, with fateful consequences for the United States and everyone else.” This
suggests that advancing the IGS system for national security, and setting up a geospatial
intelligence system is a prudent course of action.816
815
John Pomfret, Regional risks make U.S.-Japan ties even more key, Gates says, The Washington Post, 14 January 2011. 816
Japan’s Visions for Future Security and Defense Capabilities in the New Era, The Council on Security and Defense Capabilities, August 2010.
