Discussion B
Flo20thebest
363Obama-1.pptBarack Obama
Obama’s Inheritance
Two US counterinsurgency wars
One global war against radical Islam
Arab Uprising
Rising power in China
Obama’s Foreign Policy
US National Security Strategy May 2010
Threats
- Non-state Actors: The “dark side” of globalization
- Al-Qaeda
- WMD proliferation
- Non-Democratic Regimes
- Economic Instability
- Cyber attacks
- Afghanistan/Pakistan
- Middle East Instability
- New balance of power in Asia (rise of China)
US Role
- Economic renewal at home
- Expanding markets
- Economic Stability: G-20
- Promote US values
- “Underwrite global security”
- “Shaping international order”
- Engagement
- China and Russia within a stable international order
- Strengthening Alliances
1. Counterinsurgency (COIN) in Iraq
Getting Out: 2/09 Plan
Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10
COIN in Afghanistan
- December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops
- Withdrawal in 2014…2016…
Obama Policy
- 2/27/09 Speech
- Refocus on Afghanistan
2. Global War against Radical Islam
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Anwar al-Awlaki
Killed by drone strike
9/30/11
Attacks 2009
Nidal Hasan Umar Farouk 11/5/09 Abdulmutallab
Killed 13 at Ft. Hood 12/25/09
Northwest FLT 253
Amsterdam to Detroit
May 1, 2011
- Bin-Laden killed
Counterterrorism Strategy
- Special Forces
- Drone strikes
- Criminal cases
- GW Bush balance:
- capture and detain over kill
- Obama balance:
- kill over capture and detain
3. Arab Spring 2010-2011
Balancing US interests
- counterterrorism
- human rights and democracy
- OIL
- alliance with Israel
- Iranian threat
Country by Country Decisions
- Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak
- Trying to salvage Yemeni leaders then helping negotiate their resignations
- Trying to salvage Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to move faster on political reform
- Bombing Libya
- Diplomacy with Syria then harsh language
- Saudi Arabia: silence
The Dilemma
- Saudi Arabia vs. Iran
- Israel vs. Iran
- After dictators fall
- Sectarian civil wars?
- Theocracies less friendly with US?
- Al-Qaeda opportunities?
- Are democracies more or less likely to be allies of the US?
Syrian Civil War
Syria Policy
- Non-intervention
- Warning about using Chemical Weapons
- August 20, 2012 “enormous consequences”
- Summer 2013:confirmed use of chemical weapons
- Pres and Congress agree to take no action
ISIS 2011
Territory controlled in
- Syria
- Iraq
Allies
- Boko Haram
- Libya
- Europe
4. Rise of China
- One nation catches up to the US
- Rising Challenger
- Declining hegemon
US vs. China
Obama and Pres. Hu Jintao
Obama and Pres. Xi Jinping
China as Challenges
- Rival Power
- Ideology
- One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy
China sees Hegemony
Encirclement? (US, Japan, S. Korea, India)
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China sees threat: Launch Tube Hatches
USS Alabama (SSBN)
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Sending a Message?
Obama Administration’s first state dinner
- Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
Pivot/Rebalancing to Asia
- Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership
Priorities for 21st Century Defense
- “America's Engagement in the
Asia-Pacific” text
South China Sea
Timeline
China’s Nine-Dash Line
Oil and Gas
Oil Trade
Natural Gas Trade
Spratly Islands Disputes
Mischief Reef
Chinese “Naval Base”
1990s
2010s
Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal
Paracel Island Disputes
and Chinese Oil Rig 2014
Fiery Cross Reef, Spratly Islands
