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TABLE 1: GROWTH IN CHINA'S NATIONAL PRODUCT (% average annual growth, constant prices)

1952-1978 1978-2005

Official & Holz

Fan- Perkins- Sabin

Wu (1952-77) Official Holz

Wu (1978- 2012)

A. NMP 6.0-6.1 4.14

B. GDP 4.3-4.4 10.5 9.7-10.0 7.2

C. Population 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.2

D. NMP per capita 4.0-4.1 2.2

E. GDP per capita 2.4-2.5 9.1 8.4-8.7 5.9

Notes: 1982-78: Official numbers for this period are given in Naughton, Ch. 6, pp. 2-3. Naughton says they are GDP numbers, but I suspect they are NMP. Fan-Perkins-Sabin (1997; 45-6) uses the official numbers but a with different price deflator based on 1992 prices. Holz (2006) (“Measuring China’s Productivity Growth,” table 31) gives an estimate of real growth from 1952-78 of 6.1%, close to the official estimate. Maddison-Wu (2007) also constructed estimates of GDP and its constant-price growth for this period. 1978-2005: Official numbers are from NBS website (accessed 9/19/2016). Holz (2006, 2007) uses NBS numbers published with revisions after the 2004 census, with adjustments. His higher 10% estimate is deflated using the NBS pre- census revision implicit deflators; his 9.7% estimate includes some additional adjustments. Wu (2014) also makes use of the revised NBS numbers but makes adjustments for services and makes price/deflator corrections.

Figure 1: RECENT GROWTH IN CHINA'S GDP

(% average annual growth, constant prices, official data)

Sources: NBS website and NBS 2015 Statistical Communique http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201602/t20160229_1324019.html, accessed September 19, 2016.

Yardsticks for evaluating China’s growth: 1. What the growth rate means in absolute terms 2. Comparison to China’s historical growth record 3. Comparison to other similar countries

Table 2: Years to Double for Selected Annual

Growth Rates

Growth Rate

Years to Double

2%

35

4%

18

7%

10-11

9%

8

10%

7.3

Table 3: Historical Growth of China's GDP, 1914/18 to 1931/36

Average annual growth % GDP 1.1 to 2.3% Population 0.6 to 0.9% GDP per capita 0.2 to 1.7% Source: Rawski, Economic Growth in Prewar China.

TABLE 4: ESTIMATES OF CHINA’S GDP IN US$, 2015

Domestic Currency

(RMB)

Exchange Rate Method

(US $)

PPP Method

(US $)

Total 67.67 trillion $10.87 trillion

$19.52 trillion

% of World -- 14.8% 17.2% Per Capita 49,351 $7,925 $14,239

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed 9/19/2016, and NBS Statistical Communiqué for 2015 http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201602/t20160229 _1324019.html, accessed September 19, 2016. Note: In nominal exchange rate terms, China’s total GDP ranks second in the world, behind the US; in PPP terms, it ranks first. 2015 exchange rates: • Nominal (official) exchange rate: 6.2 RMB/$ • PPP exchange rate: 3.5 RMB/$

Figure 2: China’s GDP as a % of World GDP, in Historical Perspective

Note: Calculated using older (before 2005) PPP exchange rates.

Table 5: Countries at Similar Levels of GDP per capita as China (US$, 2015)

A.

Posted Exchange rate

B.

PPP

Ratio (B/A)

Romania 8,974 21,403 2.4

Brazil 8,538 15,359 1.8

Lebanon 8,052 13,938 1.7

CHINA 7,925 14,239 1.8

Botswana 6,368 15,807 2.5

Colombia 6,056 13,801 2.3

Thailand 5,816 16,306 2.8

Source: World Bank Development Indicators, accessed Sept. 20, 2016. World Bank country classifications, by 2015 per capita GNI

(Atlas exchange rate (nominal); GNI includes net income receipts from abroad)

Low Income: $1,025 or less

Lower-Middle Income: $1,026 to $4,035

Upper-Middle Income: $4,036 to $12,475 (China’s per capita GNI = $7,820)

High Income: above $12,745

Table 6: Growth Comparisons, Historical

Country or Country Group

Growth in GNI per capita,

1965-1996 China

5-7%

Low-Income Countries

3.1%

Middle Income Countries

3.3%

High Income

3.0%

Fastest Growing Economies: • Botswana • Republic of Korea • Singapore • Hong Kong • Thailand

9.2% 7.3% 6.3% 5.6% 5.0%

Other Countries • Japan • Canada

3.6% 2.0%

Note: From World Bank WDI, 1987 constant prices. Aggregates for country groups exclude China. The lower number for China is a rough estimate of the lower bound, based on the estimates in Table 1.

Table 7: Growth Comparisons, 2000-2010

Country or Country Group

Average annual growth in GDP per capita, 2000-2010

Low-Income Countries 3.2% Middle Income Countries 5.1%

Lower-Middle Upper-Middle

4.6% 5.7%

High Income 1.1% Fastest Growing Economies: • Azerbaijan* • Turkmenistan* • China • Angola* • Armenia • Belarus • Cambodia

• 15.9% • 11.5% • 10.1% • 9.7% • 9.1% • 8.6% • 7.1%

Some Other Countries • India • Brazil • Canada, U.S.

• 6.5% • 2.6% • 1.0%

Note: From World Bank World Development Report 2012, pp. 392-3, 398-9. Constant prices. *Energy products were major contributors to GDP growth of these countries.

Figure 3: Variability in China’s GDP Growth, Long Term

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Annual Growth in China's GDP (Holz estimates)

Figure 4: Variability in China’s GDP Growth, Reform Era

Sources: NBS website and NBS 2015 Statistical Communique http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201602/t20160229_1324019.html, accessed September 19, 2016.