History assignment

Warmup

Why do we have elections?

How should people choose who to vote for?

Why do we have elections?

• Our government is a representative democracy…so we have to use democracy to pick the representatives

• Ideally, elections bring out all the information voters need to decide who they want to vote for

• Especially helpful if the election is competitive—opponents call out when you lie!

• This includes the candidates’ ideologies, personalities, and what they’ll do if they win

What the Constitution says:

• Article I, Section II: Governors shall hold elections if there’s a vacancy in Congress

• Article I, Section IV: States will decide how to hold elections, unless Congress intervenes

• Article I, Sections III and V: Qualifications for federal office

• Article II, Section I: How the President and Vice President are elected (Electoral College)

What the Constitution says:

• 12th Amendment: Minor reform of Electoral College • 15th Amendment: Right to vote for all races • 17th Amendment: Senators now elected by the people, no

longer state legislatures

• 19th Amendment: Right to vote for women • 22nd Amendment: Same President can’t be elected more than

twice

• 23rd Amendment: Washington D.C. gets electoral votes to help pick President and Vice President

• 24th Amendment: No more poll taxes • 26th Amendment: Voting age lowered to 18

How do we know who wins?

• Most states use a plurality system, where the candidate with the most votes wins. Simple, right?

Remember: Majority = more than 50%

Plurality = biggest percentage

• Problem: Sometimes the winner will be someone a majority of people voted against. Is that fair? Is it democratic?

Because of plurality rule, does it make sense to have more than two political parties?

Duverger’s Law:

A plurality system used to pick a single candidate will incentivize people to organize into no more than two different groups of support (political parties)

Duverger’s Law:

A plurality system used to pick a single candidate will incentivize people to organize into no more than two different groups of support (political parties)

Duverger’s Law:

A plurality system used to pick a single candidate will incentivize people to organize into no more than two different groups of support (political parties)

Main factors:

• Party loyalty • Candidate’s character • Candidate’s stance on

issues

How do voters choose?

2003 California Recall Election: 158 candidates for Governor! How could anyone research them all?

Most voters don’t pay close attention to elections, and if they do, only for the last two months or so.

Knowing the candidates’ political affiliations and some information about their character are shortcuts voters use to make decisions

But it’s also about what factors they prioritize when choosing

How do voters choose?

Different models:

• Rational-choice voting: Voting for who you think will best serve your interests

• Party-line voting: Supporting a candidate because of their political party

• Retrospective voting: Voting based on past performance

• Prospective voting: Voting based on assumption of future performance

How do voters choose?

“My grandfather was a Democrat, my father was a Democrat, I’m a Democrat, and I’m voting for the Democrat.”

How do voters choose?

Main Factor of Influence:

Voting Model:

Party Loyalty

Party-Line

“She wants to lower taxes and my taxes need lowerin’. Pretty simple if you ask me.”

How do voters choose?

Main Factor of Influence:

Voting Model:

Issues

Rational-Choice

“Yeah, but what’s he done for me lately?”

How do voters choose?

Main Factor of Influence:

Voting Model:

Issues

Retrospective

“I just think he’s neat.”

How do voters choose?

Main Factor of Influence:

Voting Model:

Candidate Character

Prospective… ?

How do voters choose?

What about the media and interest groups?

Like political parties, media and interest groups are linkage institutions, which help people communicate their political preferences to policy-makers

(Of course, as you’ve already seen, these institutions can be used for the opposite purpose: convincing the public of specific ideological points)

LWT Sinclair Messaging HERE

Why don’t more people vote?

What do you think?

Why don’t more people vote?

Is it that big of a problem?

Why don’t more people vote?

Structural Barriers: Ways in which laws/policies make it more difficult

Why don’t more people vote?

Too busy – Election Day is always a Tuesday, and people have work/school

LWT Voting on Tuesday clip HERE

Why don’t more people vote? Too busy – Election Day is always a Tuesday, and people have work/school

Why don’t more people vote?

Registration Problems:

- Confusing forms - Limited office hours

and staff - ID requirements

Why don’t more people vote?

Structural Barriers – How can states make voting more accessible? - Online voter registration - Automatic voter registration - In-person early voting - Vote by mail

Why don’t more people vote?

Why don’t more people vote?

Why don’t more people vote?

California voting rights timeline

June 2010: 16.9 million voters registered (72.4% of eligible); 5.66 million voted (33.3% of registered) Oct. 2011: Gov. Brown signs law allowing online voter registration Sep. 2012: Gov. Brown signs law allowing same-day voter registration (instead of 15 days before Election Day) Nov. 2012: California ranks 28th out 50 states for eligible but unregistered voters (by percentage) Sep. 2016: Pre-registration becomes available for teens 16 and 17 years old Feb. 2018: Gov. Brown signs law to automatically register and pre-register potential voters who obtain a driver’s license or ID card (effective Jan. 1, 2019) June 2018: 19 million voters registered (75.7% of eligible); 7.1 million voted (37.5% of registered) (~68,000 16 and 17 year-olds pre-registered)

Voting • Article I, Section IV: States will decide how to hold elections,

unless Congress intervenes

• That includes who can vote

Amendments that expanded voter protections:

• 15th Amendment: Right to vote for all races • 19th Amendment: Right to vote for women • 24th Amendment: No more poll taxes • 26th Amendment: Voting age lowered to 18

Every one of these Amendments was passed to end restrictions that existed in at least some states at the time

Is there a right to vote?

1875 – Supreme Court case

Minor v. Happersett:

“Being unanimously of the opinion that the Constitution of the United States does not confer the right of suffrage upon any one…”

This line of thought has been overruled since then, but it underlines the point that the right to vote, while heavily implied, is never explicitly granted in the Constitution

Warm-up

Would you ever be interested in running for office?

Why or why not?

Campaigns A political campaign is an organized effort to persuade voters to elect a particular candidate

Most candidates actually face

two campaigns: winning their

party’s nomination in the

primaries, and winning the office

itself

This applies to pretty much all

campaigns

Campaigns What increases your odds of winning?

- Incumbent advantage. People already in office are significantly more likely to win reelection than lose (because they’re familiar)

- Money. More money means more ads/staff/organization to spread the word about your campaign

Campaigns Three main organizations:

- Candidate’s campaign committee

- Party’s National Committee

- Independent Committees

Campaigns

Each committee works (independently) to raise money, create ads, and try to mobilize voters to support their candidate(s)

Campaigns How to win your party’s nomination depends on rules that vary by both state and political party, but in most cases, there is a primary election where the top vote-getter wins the nomination

California: Top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party, move on to the general election

Campaigns In some cases, nominees are decided through caucuses, or organized party meetings

Caucuses can be lengthy, complex, and have multiple stages, which can exclude voters with limited time or interest

Reform: In 2020, Democrats may go from 14 states using caucuses to just 7.

Each state holds staggered primary elections and caucuses where voters choose delegates to send to the party’s summer convention. Bigger population = more delegates.

The candidate with the most delegates wins the party’s nomination. Would you prefer your state to have an EARLIER

or LATER date?

Republican candidate debates started in May 2011 (18 months before the general election). There were 27 Republican debates total.

The party selects its nominee: the National Convention

Democrats and Republicans national conventions to officially nominate their one candidate for president.

➔ Republicans: Tampa, FL (week of Aug. 27, 2012) ➔ Democrats: Charlotte, NC (week of Sept. 3, 2012)

Electoral College

How it works:

When you vote for President & VP, technically you’re voting for Electors: people who have pledged to vote for your candidate (each political party chooses their preferred Electors)

While we vote in November, the Electors meet in D.C. and officially vote for President and Vice President in mid- December

Electoral College

How many Electors does each state get?

Electors = # of House representatives + # of Senators

Ex. California 53 House members + 2 Senators = 55 Electors

Ex. Montana 1 House member + 2 Senators = 3 Electors

435 House members + 100 Senators + 3 D.C. Electors = 538 votes

Electoral College

These days, most states have laws that say the winner of the popular vote wins all the state’s electoral votes—this is a “winner-take-all” system

Two exceptions: Nebraska and Maine, which go by the popular vote winner in each of their congressional districts

Obama McCain

Clinton Trump

Electoral College Also: The President must have a majority of electoral votes. What if they don’t?

Vote goes to the House (for President) and Senate (for Vice President) - Each state delegation gets one

vote

This has happened twice: 1800 (Jefferson and Burr tie) and 1824 (Jackson got plurality, John Quincy Adams won in the House)

Electoral College

Because the number of House members is capped at 435, House seats (and thus, Electoral votes) are re- apportioned after every Census based on which states have gained or lost population

Electoral College 2000-2010

Electoral College 2010-2020

Electoral College

Why is this a thing?

According to Hamilton in The Federalist Papers, the point was, “that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.”

What does that mean?

The common people (you and me) may not have the information or judgment to elect good Presidents, so let’s elect the people that do and have them decide 


Electoral College

What stops Electors from breaking their pledge?

…nothing, really. 29 states have laws against it, but those laws have no enforcement mechanisms. Plus, their vote at the Electoral College is anonymous.

Electors who break their pledge and vote for a different candidate are known as faithless electors

Faithless Electors - 1808

Faithless Electors - 1896

Faithless Electors - 2004

Faithless Electors - 2016

Electoral College Game

Background: The nation of Tomczakistan, inspired by the U.S. Constitution, has created a presidential election system modeled on the Electoral College.

(They even named each of their states after several U.S. states. Imitation is flattery, after all.)

The major parties, Orange and Purple, have nominated their candidates. Now all that’s left is the general election…

Electoral College Game

Goal: Candidates are trying to win a majority of the available electoral votes by “winning” certain states

How: Each state has instructions on what you need to roll to win that state. It’s first-come-first-serve: The first candidate to roll the required numbers wins that state.

Majority Needed: 159 Electoral Votes

Twist: Some states are easier to win for your party than others

Electoral College Game More “Purple” States:

- California

- Washington

- Oregon

- Maryland

- Connecticut

- Rhode Island

More “Orange” States:

- Texas

- Georgia

- North Carolina

- Tennessee

- Oklahoma

- Idaho

Toss-up States:

- New Hampshire

- Florida

- Minnesota

- Arizona

- Iowa

- Pennsylvania

- Michigan

- Ohio

- Colorado

- Nevada

Potential PROBLEMS with the electoral college system…

BIG focus on “swing states”

EXAMPLE: Amount of visits & $$ spent in the last 5 weeks of the 2004 campaign by candidates G.W. Bush and John Kerry

Not surprisingly, the swing states got the most attention

(ie, political advertising) from presidential candidates in 2012, too.

Potential PROBLEMS with the electoral college system…

Discourages 3rd party candidates

(“winner takes all” electoral votes in a state)

Another problem with the electoral college system…

In which state does your vote for president count “more”?

California Wyoming 30,000,000 people 450,000 people

55 electoral votes 3 electoral votes

➔ 1 elector vote for every 333,333 people

➔ 1 elector vote for every 150,000 people

Warm-up

Is the Electoral College democratic?

Why or why not?

Use specific examples

Campaign Finance

What’s the concern about excessive money in politics?

How expensive are campaigns?

Why are campaigns so expensive?

How is money raised?

What are the basic rules of campaign finance?

What are PACs and Super PACs?

Campaign Finance – The Basics

Why is this necessary? Because political campaigns are EXPENSIVE

Over $3 billion was spent just on the presidential race in 2016

Other highlights:

- More than $179 million spent on 2016 PA Senate race

- Nearly $23 million spent on just one House race: VA-10th

2016 Average: More than $1 million per House race and more than

$3 million per Senate race

Campaign Finance – The Basics

Where does that money go?

- Staff pay and benefits

- Travel (private jets)

- Data & Tech

- Campaign offices

- Ads. Lots of ads.

Clinton Campaign Spending, 2016

Campaign Finance – The Basics

In any election, there is money that the candidate raises…

• Donations from people or PACs

• This includes buying campaign merch

• Self-funded

…and money raised on behalf of the candidate

• Political Action Committees (PACs)

• Super PACs

The difference here is who controls how the money is spent

Campaign Finance – The Basics Political Action Committee

- Private organization that raises and donates money for various candidates and/or issues

Ex. CHALPAC can raise money from hotel

workers and spend on candidates and

issues that will benefit hotel businesses

Both Democrats and Republicans, and even

individual party leaders, have PACs to help their

members win elections

What is speech? Does it have to be verbal?

Does it have to be in a language?

Can it be symbolic?

Campaign Finance Game

Two roles:

Candidates: Seek out donors to meet your fundraising goals. This will mean promising them some things.

Donors: Donating to the candidate(s) who commit to what you are demanding

Campaign Finance Game Guidelines:

Candidates are allowed to raise more than their fundraising goal (but it will not carry over to the next round)

Donors: Every donation you give must be the amount on your card. The number of donations you give is limited to what’s on your card as well.

Campaign Finance Game Round 1

Fundraising Goal: $1,000

Round 2

Fundraising Goal: $2,000

Round 3

Fundraising Goal: $4,000

Round 4

Fundraising Goal: $10,000

Campaign Finance Game Debrief:

Candidates: How did the increased fundraising goals affect the donors you talked to or promises you made?

Donors: Did you feel like the candidates cared about your interests? Did you feel like it was worth it to make a donation at all? Why/why not?

Campaign Finance Game

The Point:

Expensive campaigns incentivize candidates to

“go where the money is”—rich donors, corporations, and super PACs

Campaign Finance Laws

• It’s assumed that when you spend money on politics, you’re expressing your opinion about politics

• But politicians are going to go where the most money is, potentially ignoring the concerns of people with less money

So how do you protect political expression while preventing corruption?

Campaign Finance – The Rules 1971: Federal Election Campaign Act – Limited money that campaigns/PACs could receive and spend in an election

1974: Supreme Court in Buckley v. Valeo declared spending limits unconstitutional; some limits on donations still OK

2002: The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA or “McCain- Feingold”) attempted to close loopholes around spending on “issue-only” ads, especially spending by corporations

2010: Supreme Court in Citizens United v. FEC ruled that corporations had virtually no restrictions on how to spend money on political issues, creating “Super PACs”

Campaign Finance Super PACs

Campaign Finance Gingrich anti-Romney ad here

Campaign Finance Mitt the Ripper ad here

Campaigns & Super PACs - Coordination

Background:

Sep. 2011 – Stephen Colbert creates a Super PAC, Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow

2012 - Decides to “run” for President, meaning he has to give up control of his Super PAC to someone he won’t coordinate with…like his good friend Jon Stewart

Campaigns & Super PACs - Coordination

Why not publicly finance elections?

If the money comes from “the people,” wouldn’t that remove the incentive for politicians to favor rich donors?

Yes! But…

2010: Meg Whitman spent over $148 million of her own money to run for Governor (and lost)