Divorce and Remarriage

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12.2: Predicting the Future Divorce Rate Objective: Predict the future divorce rates

As noted earlier, the divorce rate steadily rose in the United States for the hundred years after 1860, with a dramatic rise from 1960 to 1981. This trend reversed since then with a, mild but steady decline from the historic high. In 2010 the divorce rate was at its lowest level since 1970. But what of the future? Is this recent decline the beginning of a downward trend in the rate or at least a leveling off, or only a pause in the long-term upward trend? Although the future is difficult to predict with accuracy, the factors associated with divorce rates indicate that the trend is for divorce to continue its decline or to level off. A word of caution: Divorce rates are based on what has happened to earlier marriages (Kammeyer et al., 1990:399). We simply do not know whether this and future generations will follow the patterns of previous generations. With

this caveat in mind, let’s review first the factors that will have a dampening influence on future divorce rates.

Young adults now are marrying about 5 years later than in 1980, reducing the number of very young brides and grooms. The later the marriage takes place, the less chance there is of divorce.

A basis for the high divorce rate in the 1970s was the ideological gap between the rise of new feminists and their traditional husbands. Many wives developed a keen awareness of gender inequities after they were married.

When their challenges to traditional gender patterns were resisted by their traditional husbands, the chances for divorce increased. Although these gender battles are still being fought in contemporary marriages, there is a greater

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likelihood that both partners are aware during courtship of their future spouse’s beliefs concerning gender roles. Thus, there are fewer surprises, and the demands by wives that their husbands participate in household chores and child care are viewed as less threatening and less challenging. As a result, it is argued, gender battles have diminished as a source of marital disruption.

Bringing Down Divorce Rates On the legal side, there is a concerted attempt by conservatives to make divorces more

difficult to obtain, which, if successful, will bring the divorce rate down.

This is a reaction to no-fault divorce laws, which were passed by every state since the 1970s and which made divorces easier and faster to obtain. These laws made it

possible for either spouse to cancel a marriage at any time. Some have argued that the

divorce rate, which jumped 30 percent since the passage of no-fault divorce laws, is a

consequence of those laws. Research substantiates this. One study found that no-fault

laws raised the divorce rate by about 15 percent (Nakonezny et al., 1995), but, as Larry Bumpass has argued, no-fault laws “account for a short-term rise in divorce by

speeding those cases that were already coming down the pipeline” (quoted in Johnson,

1996:8).

Many states are trying to legislate ways to discourage divorce (i.e., bringing back fault- based divorce law). A different legislative strategy with the same presumed outcome is

to make marriage more difficult to obtain. Another option with the expressed hope of

deterring divorce, passed by the 1997 Louisiana legislature, is a voluntary method

called “covenant marriage” (Nock et al., 1999). Arizona enacted similar legislation in

1998 and other states, mostly southern, are considering this attempt to strengthen

marriage (Latham, 2000). In Louisiana it works this way: Although couples may opt for marriage as before, they now also have the option of a “covenant marriage.” Couples

choosing this option must receive premarital counseling and promise to marry for life.

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Divorces are granted only after counseling and only under certain conditions: 

The couple has been separated for more than 2 years

 either spouse has committed adultery

 a spouse is convicted of a felony and sentenced to

prison

 a spouse physically or sexually abuses his or her

spouse or child

a spouse abandons the house and refuses to return for at least a year.

Clearly, the enactment of laws making marriage and/or divorce more difficult to obtain

will bring divorce rates down. Contrary to the assumption of the proponents of such

legislation, however, these efforts will not enhance the quality of marriages. Nor will this

legislation increase marriages. What will likely occur is that there will be a greater

reluctance to marry, increasing the likelihood of cohabitation as a substitute for marriage.

There were 1.6 million heterosexual couples living together without marrying (cohabitation) in 1980. This increased to 4.9 million in 2000, and 7.65 million couples in 2011 (Population Reference Bureau, reported in Jayson, 2012; Steverman, 2011). This dramatic increase in couples living together without marrying is the primary reason why divorce rates have declined in the recent past. This is because many couples who would have married in previous generations and later divorced now live together before marriage and eventually separate, thereby avoiding becoming a divorce statistic. In 2000 some 41 percent of people who cohabited eventually married (Amato et al.,

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2007:71). If they had not lived together but married instead, the 59 percent who separated without marrying would have been counted in the divorce statistics. Cohabitation has become increasing acceptable in society, which leads to the assumption of even more cohabiting unions and fewer formal marriages in the near term.

There is also a trend toward more stable marriages. Different cohorts, for example, vary in their divorce rates. Marriages that began in 1990s were more likely to be married after 10 years than those that started in the 1980s, which, in turn, were also more likely to last than marriages that began in the 1970s (Stevenson and Wolfers, 2007: para 3). Age itself is an important variable, since the data show that the divorce rate for those 50 and above is twice what it was in 1990 and the proportion of the population in this age category is rising.

Historically, economic downturns increase the divorce rate. But the recession beginning in 2008 is deeper than any since the 1930s. There are indications that

the seriousness of these current economic times may neutralize the typical trend of hard times leading to divorce, at least in the short term. Dramatic declines in 401(k)s (retirement accounts) and housing values have kept many couples from separating because they cannot afford to. When the economic slump is replaced by better times the divorce may surge for a while, giving the number of couples ready to divorce when they could afford it.

Several trends lead to a marriage gap by social class (Economist, 2007a). That is, there is a widening gulf between the least educated and best educated in divorce patterns. High school dropouts and those who stopped their education with high school are more likely than their more educated peers to be pregnant

at the time of marriage, marry young, have children early, and be limited to low-wage dead-end jobs, all factors leading to a relatively high divorce rate. The well educated and more affluent, on the other hand, are more likely than

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economically marginal couples to stay married. The data show that people with college degrees are half as likely to be divorced or separated as their less- educated peers (Jefferson, 2008:49). A knowledge-based economy requires an emphasis on education. To the degree that the demand for higher education increases, we can expect the overall divorce rate to decline.

Finally, as we will review later in the chapter, divorce is typically followed by another marriage. And, the divorce rate for those in higher order marriages is greater than for those first marriages.

There is a debate on the direction of future divorce rates. While considering the merits of the arguments in this debate, we must remember an important fact: The divorce rate reflects the composite picture of marital instability. Thus, this single rate, whether rising or falling, masks the variation in marital disruption by class, race, and ethnicity.