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2PIntroductiontoEconomicGrowthandInstability.pptx

Introduction to Economic Growth and Instability Please listen to the audio as you work through the slides.

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License, Charles Hackner Houston Community College unless otherwise noted CC BY NC

Going to college is a contact sport!

You have to be Fierce, Committed, Don’t let go!

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CC BY Chris Sansenbach

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Or, Here is the result of another approach!

Learning objectives

Students should be able to thoroughly and completely explain:

The Business cycle and its 4 phases.

Causes of economic instability,

Types of Unemployment

The costs of Unemployment and issues associated with the unequal burden of Unemployment.

The types of Inflation (including who is hurt and helped by Inflation)

The effects of Inflation on output.

Topics

Economic Growth

The Business Cycle

Unemployment – what is it and how do you measure it?

Inflation – what is it, how do you measure it, and what does it cost us?

Economic Growth

Measuring:

An increase in real GDP over time, or

An increase in real GDP per capita over time

http://www.measuringworth.com/usgdp/

Growth is a Goal – but is it a sustainable goal?

Main Sources of Growth

Increases in Resources produce 1/3 of growth

Contribution of oil since it’s discovery – the UK case

Increases in Productivity produce 2/3 of growth

Driven by machines, technology, knowledge

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Economic Growth

The Business Cycle

Level of Real Output

Time

Peak

Peak

Peak

Recession

Recession

Expansion

Expansion

Trough

Trough

Growth

Trend

Durable goods and nondurable goods industries

affected differently

Business Cycle - Characteristics

Peak

Full employment

Rising National income

Reached output capacity

Demand pull Inflation

Recession

2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

Rising Unemployment

Falling national income

Falling consumer spending

Business Cycle - Characteristics

Trough

Stability

Things have gotten as bad as they are going to get

Unemployment stabilizes

GDP growth rate stabilizes

Expansionary phase

GDP rising

Employment rising

National income rising

Consumer spending rising

Some Causes of Business Cycles

Shocks and price stickiness

Supply shocks and productivity shocks

Monetary shocks

Financial boom and bust

Unexpected political events

Common link

Unexpected changes in spending

26-12

Unemployment

Twin problems of the business cycle

Unemployment

Inflation

Measurement of Unemployment

Who’s in the labor force

26-13

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

The measures of the Unemployment rate

Check them out.

Why do you suppose we hear very little about the big ugly one?

Unemployment rate 1948 – April 2017

What do you think your next 60 years will look like?

What can you do now to minimize the pain?

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, May 27, 2017

Unemployment

Measurement of Unemployment, 2002

Employed

Not in

labor

force

Under 16

and/or

institutionalized

Total

Population

288,600,000

Labor

force

142,500,000

74,700,000

71,400,000

Homemakers,

full time students,

retirees

Unemployed

8,300,000

134,200,000

Unemployment

Measurement of Unemployment

Unemployment

rate

unemployed

labor force

x

100

=

Bureau of labor statistics survey monthly

Part-Time Employment - counted as fulltime

Discouraged Workers – not counted

Unemployment

Types of Unemployment

Note the role of skills in each

Frictional Unemployment - search and wait Unemployment, transitional

Structural Unemployment -

AKA: compositional Unemployment

the composition of the labor force is slow to change.

skill requirements of employers change faster then worker skills

jobs shift geographically

Unemployment

Types of Unemployment

3. Cyclical Unemployment

Caused by decline in total spending

Occurs in recession phase of business cycle

Demand for goods and services decreases, employment falls, Unemployment rises

Unemployment

Definition of full employment

Occurs when there is no cyclical Unemployment

Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment aka the Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU) 4 to 5 percent Unemployment

At this point the economy is said to be producing its potential output

Okun’s Law

Each 1% above NRU creates negative 3% output gap

What happens if full-employment becomes a 6 to 7 percent rate of Unemployment by the time you graduate?

Some Unemployment Issues

Aging labor force

Age discrimination

Skills exit

The driving down of wage rates

Fewer good paying jobs

Academic preparation

inequality

26-22

Unemployment

26-24

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

The GDP Gap

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

GDP (billions of 1996 dollars)

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

The Unemployment Rate

10

8

6

4

2

0

Unemployment

(percent of civilian

Labor force)

Source: Congressional Budget Office & Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP gap

(positive)

GDP gap

(negative)

Potential GDP

Actual GDP

Unemployment

The Case of Unequal Burdens

Occupation – low vs high skilled

Age - teenagers

Race and Ethnicity – education, in lower skilled jobs, labor mkt discrimination.

Gender – similar Unemployment rates, differences in pay

Education – less education / higher Unemployment

Duration – the percentage of persons experiencing long term Unemployment lower than general Unemployment rate

Economic Costs of Unemployment

Foregone output or Potential output

Reduced national spending

Leads to reduced output

Reduced tax revenue (at all levels)

26-26

Unemployment

The more difficult to quantify costs of Unemployment

Loss of job skills,

Loss of self-respect

Political unrest,

Racial and ethnic tensions,

Mental and physical illness

Impact on families

Inflation

Defined and Measurement

A rising general level of prices

Reduction in purchasing power

Rate of Inflation calculated using index numbers

Inflation

Consumer Price Index

Consumer price index (CPI)

Market basket of 300 goods and services

Typical urban consumer

2 year updates

CPI

Price of the Most Recent Market

Basket in the Particular Year

Price estimate of the Market

Basket in 1982-1984

=

x

100

An Example

In 2002 CPI was 119 and in 2001 CPI was 116.4

The rate of Inflation from 2001 to 2002 is

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

1913 – 2012

Note the difference before and after 1959

What do you think happened?

Bls.gov

Inflation Rates: 4 Countries 1970 - 2014

Inflation

Types of Inflation

Demand pull

Cost-push

26-33

Demand-Pull Inflation

Excess spending beyond the economy’s capacity to produce.

Bids up prices

Will exist as long as there is excess total spending.

Types of Inflation

Types of Inflation

Cost-Push Inflation

Rising Per-Unit Production Costs

Per unit cost = (total input cost / units of output)

AKA - Supply-Side Inflation – sharp increases in raw materials prices

Supply Shocks – abrupt increases in raw material costs, shortages of raw materials, natural disasters

Example - oil price in 1973-74 and 1979-80.

Complexities – can be driven by demand pull Inflation,

Sustainability – cost push self limiting

Redistributive effects of Inflation

Who is Hurt by Inflation and how?

Fixed-Income Receivers

Social security, pension recipients

Purchasing power drops

Savers - purchasing power drops

Creditors – are repaid in dollars with less purchasing power

Redistributive effects of Inflation

Who is Unaffected or Helped by Inflation and how?

Flexible-Income Receivers –receive Inflation adjustments

Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) – some union workers

Debtors – pay back with cheaper dollars

Nominal

Interest

Rate

Real

Interest

Rate

Inflation

Premium

=

11%

5%

6%

+

Anticipated Inflation

Effects of Inflation on output

Cost-Push Inflation and Real Output

As prices rise,

Quantity of goods & services demanded fall,

Firms produce less,

Output and employment fall

Effects of Inflation on output

Demand-Pull Inflation and Real Output

Inflation increase, higher profit for firms, expansion of plants and equipment, more output, more employment.

Once economy is at full employment as demand increases, output does not increase, employment does not increase, just the level of Inflation increases.

In general, demand-pull Inflation leads to reduction in real output.

Other Inflation Issues

Deflation – generally falling prices

Stagflation

HyperInflation

26-41

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

19851987198919911993199519971999200120032005

0

2

4

6

8

10

19851987198919911993199519971999200120032005

Chart2

1985.1 1985.1
1985.2 1985.2
1985.3 1985.3
1985.4 1985.4
1986.1 1986.1
1986.2 1986.2
1986.3 1986.3
1986.4 1986.4
1987.1 1987.1
1987.2 1987.2
1987.3 1987.3
1987.4 1987.4
1988.1 1988.1
1988.2 1988.2
1988.3 1988.3
1988.4 1988.4
1989.1 1989.1
1989.2 1989.2
1989.3 1989.3
1989.4 1989.4
1990.1 1990.1
1990.2 1990.2
1990.3 1990.3
1990.4 1990.4
1991.1 1991.1
1991.2 1991.2
1991.3 1991.3
1991.4 1991.4
1992.1 1992.1
1992.2 1992.2
1992.3 1992.3
1992.4 1992.4
1993.1 1993.1
1993.2 1993.2
1993.3 1993.3
1993.4 1993.4
1994.1 1994.1
1994.2 1994.2
1994.3 1994.3
1994.4 1994.4
1995.1 1995.1
1995.2 1995.2
1995.3 1995.3
1995.4 1995.4
1996.1 1996.1
1996.2 1996.2
1996.3 1996.3
1996.4 1996.4
1997.1 1997.1
1997.2 1997.2
1997.3 1997.3
1997.4 1997.4
1998.1 1998.1
1998.2 1998.2
1998.3 1998.3
1998.4 1998.4
1999.1 1999.1
1999.2 1999.2
1999.3 1999.3
1999.4 1999.4
2000.1 2000.1
2000.2 2000.2
2000.3 2000.3
2000.4 2000.4
2001.1 2001.1
2001.2 2001.2
2001.3 2001.3
2001.4 2001.4
2002.1 2002.1
2002.2 2002.2
2002.3 2002.3
2002.4 2002.4
2003.1 2003.1
2003.2 2003.2
2003.3 2003.3
2003.4 2003.4
2004.1 2004.1
2004.2 2004.2
2004.3 2004.3
2004.4 2004.4
2005.1 2005.1
2005.2 2005.2
2005.3 2005.3
2005.4 2005.4
Potential
Actual
6026.8
5956.9
6074.6
6007.8
6123.4
6101.7
6173.3
6148.6
6224
6207.4
6275.2
6232
6326.7
6291.7
6378
6323.4
6429.2
6365
6480.4
6435
6531.4
6493.4
6582.4
6606.8
6633.5
6639.1
6684.7
6723.5
6735.9
6759.4
6787.1
6848.6
6838.3
6918.1
6889.2
6963.5
6940
7013.1
6990.4
7030.9
7040.3
7112.1
7089.8
7130.3
7138.7
7130.8
7187.2
7076.9
7235.3
7040.8
7282.9
7086.5
7330.2
7120.7
7377.1
7154.1
7423.7
7228.2
7470.4
7297.9
7517.2
7369.5
7564.2
7450.7
7611.9
7459.7
7660.6
7497.5
7710
7536
7760.4
7637.4
7812
7715.1
7864.7
7815.7
7919
7859.5
7974.7
7951.6
8031.4
7973.7
8089.2
7988
8148
8053.1
8208.1
8112
8269.6
8169.2
8332.6
8303.1
8397.2
8372.7
8463.6
8470.6
8531.6
8536.1
8601.3
8665.8
8672.7
8773.7
8745.7
8838.4
8820.4
8936.2
8896.7
8995.3
8974.5
9098.9
9054.1
9237.1
9135.6
9315.5
9218.8
9392.6
9304.1
9502.2
9390.6
9671.1
9477.9
9695.6
9565.8
9847.9
9653.3
9836.6
9740.7
9887.7
9828
9875.6
9915
9905.9
10001.9
9871.1
10088.4
9910
10174.1
9977.3
10258.6
10031.6
10341.7
10090.7
10422.9
10095.8
10502.9
10138.6
10582.2
10230.4
10661
10410.9
10740.4
10502.6
10820.1
10612.5
10900.4
10704.1
10981.6
10808.9
11063.4
10897.1
11146.4
10999.3
11230.7
11089.2
11316.4
11202.3
11403.9
11248.3

Sheet1

Potential Actual
1985.1 6026.8 5956.9
1985.2 6074.6 6007.8
1985.3 6123.4 6101.7
1985.4 6173.3 6148.6
1986.1 6224 6207.4
1986.2 6275.2 6232
1986.3 6326.7 6291.7
1986.4 6378 6323.4
1987.1 6429.2 6365
1987.2 6480.4 6435
1987.3 6531.4 6493.4
1987.4 6582.4 6606.8
1988.1 6633.5 6639.1
1988.2 6684.7 6723.5
1988.3 6735.9 6759.4
1988.4 6787.1 6848.6
1989.1 6838.3 6918.1
1989.2 6889.2 6963.5
1989.3 6940 7013.1
1989.4 6990.4 7030.9
1990.1 7040.3 7112.1
1990.2 7089.8 7130.3
1990.3 7138.7 7130.8
1990.4 7187.2 7076.9
1991.1 7235.3 7040.8
1991.2 7282.9 7086.5
1991.3 7330.2 7120.7
1991.4 7377.1 7154.1
1992.1 7423.7 7228.2
1992.2 7470.4 7297.9
1992.3 7517.2 7369.5
1992.4 7564.2 7450.7
1993.1 7611.9 7459.7
1993.2 7660.6 7497.5
1993.3 7710 7536
1993.4 7760.4 7637.4
1994.1 7812 7715.1
1994.2 7864.7 7815.7
1994.3 7919 7859.5
1994.4 7974.7 7951.6
1995.1 8031.4 7973.7
1995.2 8089.2 7988
1995.3 8148 8053.1
1995.4 8208.1 8112
1996.1 8269.6 8169.2
1996.2 8332.6 8303.1
1996.3 8397.2 8372.7
1996.4 8463.6 8470.6
1997.1 8531.6 8536.1
1997.2 8601.3 8665.8
1997.3 8672.7 8773.7
1997.4 8745.7 8838.4
1998.1 8820.4 8936.2
1998.2 8896.7 8995.3
1998.3 8974.5 9098.9
1998.4 9054.1 9237.1
1999.1 9135.6 9315.5
1999.2 9218.8 9392.6
1999.3 9304.1 9502.2
1999.4 9390.6 9671.1
2000.1 9477.9 9695.6
2000.2 9565.8 9847.9
2000.3 9653.3 9836.6
2000.4 9740.7 9887.7
2001.1 9828 9875.6
2001.2 9915 9905.9
2001.3 10001.9 9871.1
2001.4 10088.4 9910
2002.1 10174.1 9977.3
2002.2 10258.6 10031.6
2002.3 10341.7 10090.7
2002.4 10422.9 10095.8
2003.1 10502.9 10138.6
2003.2 10582.2 10230.4
2003.3 10661 10410.9
2003.4 10740.4 10502.6
2004.1 10820.1 10612.5
2004.2 10900.4 10704.1
2004.3 10981.6 10808.9
2004.4 11063.4 10897.1
2005.1 11146.4 10999.3
2005.2 11230.7 11089.2
2005.3 11316.4 11202.3
2005.4 11403.9 11248.3

Sheet1

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0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
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0 0
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0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Potential
Actual
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet2

0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
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0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
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0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Potential
Actual
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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0
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0
0
0
0
0

Sheet3

Chart4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Unemployment
7.2
7
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.2
4
4.8
5.8
6
5.5
5.1

Sheet1

Potential Actual
1985.1 6026.8 5956.9
1985.2 6074.6 6007.8
1985.3 6123.4 6101.7
1985.4 6173.3 6148.6
1986.1 6224 6207.4
1986.2 6275.2 6232
1986.3 6326.7 6291.7
1986.4 6378 6323.4
1987.1 6429.2 6365
1987.2 6480.4 6435
1987.3 6531.4 6493.4
1987.4 6582.4 6606.8
1988.1 6633.5 6639.1
1988.2 6684.7 6723.5
1988.3 6735.9 6759.4
1988.4 6787.1 6848.6
1989.1 6838.3 6918.1
1989.2 6889.2 6963.5
1989.3 6940 7013.1
1989.4 6990.4 7030.9
1990.1 7040.3 7112.1
1990.2 7089.8 7130.3
1990.3 7138.7 7130.8
1990.4 7187.2 7076.9
1991.1 7235.3 7040.8
1991.2 7282.9 7086.5
1991.3 7330.2 7120.7
1991.4 7377.1 7154.1
1992.1 7423.7 7228.2
1992.2 7470.4 7297.9
1992.3 7517.2 7369.5
1992.4 7564.2 7450.7
1993.1 7611.9 7459.7
1993.2 7660.6 7497.5
1993.3 7710 7536
1993.4 7760.4 7637.4
1994.1 7812 7715.1
1994.2 7864.7 7815.7
1994.3 7919 7859.5
1994.4 7974.7 7951.6
1995.1 8031.4 7973.7
1995.2 8089.2 7988
1995.3 8148 8053.1
1995.4 8208.1 8112
1996.1 8269.6 8169.2
1996.2 8332.6 8303.1
1996.3 8397.2 8372.7
1996.4 8463.6 8470.6
1997.1 8531.6 8536.1
1997.2 8601.3 8665.8
1997.3 8672.7 8773.7
1997.4 8745.7 8838.4
1998.1 8820.4 8936.2
1998.2 8896.7 8995.3
1998.3 8974.5 9098.9
1998.4 9054.1 9237.1
1999.1 9135.6 9315.5
1999.2 9218.8 9392.6
1999.3 9304.1 9502.2
1999.4 9390.6 9671.1
2000.1 9477.9 9695.6
2000.2 9565.8 9847.9
2000.3 9653.3 9836.6
2000.4 9740.7 9887.7
2001.1 9828 9875.6
2001.2 9915 9905.9
2001.3 10001.9 9871.1
2001.4 10088.4 9910
2002.1 10174.1 9977.3
2002.2 10258.6 10031.6
2002.3 10341.7 10090.7
2002.4 10422.9 10095.8
2003.1 10502.9 10138.6
2003.2 10582.2 10230.4
2003.3 10661 10410.9
2003.4 10740.4 10502.6
2004.1 10820.1 10612.5
2004.2 10900.4 10704.1
2004.3 10981.6 10808.9
2004.4 11063.4 10897.1
2005.1 11146.4 10999.3
2005.2 11230.7 11089.2
2005.3 11316.4 11202.3
2005.4 11403.9 11248.3
Unemployment
1985 7.2
1986 7
1987 6.2
1988 5.5
1989 5.3
1990 5.6
1991 6.8
1992 7.5
1993 6.9
1994 6.1
1995 5.6
1996 5.4
1997 4.9
1998 4.5
1999 4.2
2000 4
2001 4.8
2002 5.8
2003 6
2004 5.5
2005 5.1

Sheet1

0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Potential
Actual
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet2

0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Potential
Actual
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Unemployment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

%

2

.

2

100

4

.

116

4

.

116

0

.

119

=

´

-