Survey of Oceanography
Yasuo7776
29Sea_level_Rise_III_van_Leer6.pptSea Level Rise a
Natural Hazzard?
Drivers and Solutions
By: John Van Leer
for
November 10, 2020
High Water Spills over top of seawall along NE 89th St. on October 28th, 2012 without strong local winds.
This poses a clear threat to my home down this street.
NE 89th Street was completely flooded during this event. Romney’s election poster provides a clear time stamp.
Tide Gage Data (Red pluses) from the NOAA tide gage, located at the RSMAS dock, on Virginia Key shows that tides ran nearly
1.5’ higher than levels predicted (Shown by Blue Line) at noon on October 28, 2012. Green X’s show Observed - Predicted
Transport of the Florida Current was Reduced on 10/28/12
1) The average Florida Current Transport is about 32 Sverdrups, which causes sea levels to stand about 3’ higher in the Bahamas compared to sea levels along the East Coast of Florida. (1 Sverdrup = 1,000,000 cubic meters/second, which is approximately equal to the sum of all the fresh water rivers in the world)
2) On October 28, 2012 the transport measured by the NOAA maintained cable was 17.2 Sverdrups, which was the lowest daily average for 2012 and the lowest I could find during that year.
3) Since transport was nearly half the average the sea level difference between the Bahamas and Florida was reduce by nearly a 1.5 feet as seen in the tidal data above.
4) This resulted in nearly 1.5 feet of inundation on top of elevated water levels from a predicted new moon “King” tide.
King Tides are usually Maximum in September, October and November. But in 2012, they continued unusually high into December and even January.
A 2016 King Tide allowed an Octopus to crawl out of a storm drain, chasing a school of fish, in a parking garage in Miami Beach.
There is clear evidence of scientific bias toward underestimation Sea Level Rise in past IPCC forecasts. (Lower smooth curves are models while actual data are the (jagged on top.) October 2018 IPCC is more realistic.
The Future According to SE Florida Climate Compact – 2015 Sea Level rise Projections. Past IPCC Projections have been so conservative that actual sea level rise, measured by satellites, has run at or above the maximum curve, if we continue business as usual. The lowest curve will require a Carbon Fee & Dividend like CCL.
I see One Best Chance Climate Solution
I have been teaching Climate Change for 40+ years, and CCL’s Shultz/Becker Plan, gives me hope for the first time, that sea level rise can be slowed by rapid emissions reductions.
Schulz/Becker has the best chance to work economically and more important, it can work politically. Because of clear Sea Level Rise here, Southern Florida is the Fulcrum.
Would you like to exercise your democracy mussel?
Join CCL, with 120,000 other citizens, who work relentlessly to change politics of climate change.
Some of the 25 member, 2015 Florida Delegation in front of the Capitol Building.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo Republican Congressman from the Florida Keys called for bi-partisan action on Climate. He was the first Co-Sponsor of the Gibson Resolution from South Florida.
He also founded the bi-partisan Climate Solutions Caucus with Dem. M.O.C. Ted Deutch of Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
After 7 months of detailed preparation, 6 meetings with her staff and alliance building in her district, CCL finally had an appointment to meet the Senior Republican Representative from Florida on June 23rd, 2015.
I am explaining to The Honorable Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Leghtinen (R) Miami: That in 1988, during the cold war, I was measuring the ocean north of Siberia for anti-submarine warfare purposes. We observed pack ice being melted from below by “warm”, salty Atlantic water during -40C atmospheric temperatures, showing global warming then.
Historic meeting photo (L to R) Dr. Julie Lambert FAU, Craig Hamra CCL Miami Group Leader , Jay Butera CCL Senior Staff, The Honorable Ileana Ros-Leghtinen, Stephen Cain RSMAS Student , Chris Barcenas UM Student, and Yours Truly. Following this picture, Jay Butera handed Ileana the new poling results in his right hand, which showed that 82% of her constituents favor action to mitigate effects of Climate Change.
CCL has facilitated the 90 member Bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus.
It was composed of 90 members evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
It started right here, in South Florida, with Republican Carlos Curbelo and Democrat Ted Deutch.
In-spite-of divisive Impeachment hearings, dividing our congress, progress is still possible.
Senate Forms a bi-partisan Climate Solutions Caucus! Really?
CCL’s International Success in Canada
After years of effort by Canadian CCL, on November 4th 2018, Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, declared a nation wide Carbon tax = $50/metric ton of CO2. It will start with $10/t in 2018 and increase $10/t each year until 2022 when it will = $50/t in Canadian dollars.
Trudeau was reelected on 9/21/19 with 2/3rds of members of house of commons in favor carbon pricing, so full implementation will continue!
It was the top issue in the Canadian election.
We in the USA need to follow Canada’s lead, or we will soon pay border adjustments on the carbon content of US goods imported into Canada!
British Columbia Already leads the world with a successful $30/ton
Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax.
Now they want to raise the carbon tax again!
After years of effort by Canadian CCL,
November 4th 2018, Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, declared a nation wide Carbon tax = $50/metric ton of CO2. It will start with $10/t in 2018 and increase $10/t each year until 2022 when it will = $50/t in Canadian dollars.
Trudeau was reelected on 9/21/19 with 2/3rds of members of house of commons in favor carbon pricing, so full implementation will continue!
(It was the top issue in the Canadian election.)
We in the USA need to follow Canada’s lead, or we will pay border adjustments.
Want to push divestment? Try 350.org
Greta says:
”You say you love your children above all else, and yet you are stealing their future in front of their very eyes.”
To COP24: “You tell us to go to school but what’s the point in learning if we haven’t got a future?”
To Davos: “I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to act as if your house is on fire, because it is.”
On Friday March 15th 2019, 1,600,000 school children,
in 125 countries took part in a Globalchool Strike for Climate.
This was the largest climate mobilization in history.
But will the adults listen?
#FridayForFuture
On March 15th protests by children,
were held on every continent including Antarctica plus Svalbard & Greenland.
This 2015 Book shows the surprising progress which has already been made, on the transition from fossil fuels to renewables.
There are now 4 times as many US solar workers as coal miners.
On a personal basis, you could Paint your roof white, to cool your attic and save AC Energy
Or mount Solar Collector on your roof, to provides free hot water for the rest of your life.
You can install a solar PV array on your house. Here, South facing 10 panels out of my 26 panel array are seen producing electric power. My recent FPL bills have run under $10/month.
Drive electric and charge, free of charge, at Yellow Stone National Park.
Can’t afford a Tesla? Convert a fossil car to an EV using an EV West or other Electric motor to replace a burned-out Gas Engine! A complete Karmann Ghia EV Conversion Kit with lithium Ion battery and regenerative braking costs $6,988 on EV West website + 2 weeks labor.
$7K too much? You can do it for about half price with deep cycle lead acid batteries from Cell Phone tower backup battery packs. These are sold by Interstate for about a dime on the dollar. Intimidated by the idea of rebuilding a car??
For a $10 student membership, you can join the Electric Vehicle Club of the South to find help!
Citizens Climate Lobby Meetings
2nd Saturday every month
online
Miami 12:15am till 12:45pm
Followed by
National at 1:00pm
Contact Greg Hamra at:
greg4green@gmail
