Owens

State A Strategic Planning Scenario

The following information consists of a scenario introduction. The scenario is about State A and provides some of the information necessary to develop the State A Homeland Security Strategic Plan. While the information is about a fictitious state, the underlying information is derived from actual state information in an attempt to ensure the scenario is a realistic as possible.

Demographics/Socioeconomics

State A’s population is approximately 20 million people. This is approximately 6.5% of the U.S. population. State A’s population is primarily located in urban and suburban settings, with the remainder of the state being sparsely populated. On average, there are 40 persons per square mile in the state.

6% of the population is under 5 years old

23% of the population is under 18 years old

13% of the population is over 65 years old

There are 8 million housing units in the state, with a median housing unit valued at $150,000. The median household income is $56,000, with 14% of the population living below the poverty line.

With respect to the private sector, there are 1.7 million businesses within the state that employ 8 million people.

Infrastructure

State A has considerable infrastructure that is threatened by both deferred maintenance and malevolent acts such as terrorism. State A has a vast and varied transportation system:

The system sees more than 140 billion vehicle miles driven on almost 110,000 miles of highways and more than 18,000 highway bridges.

Over 500 public and private aviation facilities serve 84 million passengers annually.

The state’s ports handle more than 150 million tons of freight each year.

Approximately 73.5 million tons of freight move across 3,500 miles of railroads annually.

These railroads also provide facilities that serve approximately 1.5 million intercity passenger rail riders.

Each day, 7.1 million passengers are served by more than 130 public transit operators, including subway, commuter rail, and buses.

Other major infrastructure includes the following:

Power-generating stations

An electrical grid that is integrated into a regional grid

Numerous major pipelines carrying fuel and natural gas essential for winter heating, vehicle fueling, power plant operation, and fueling manufacturing and other economic activity

Numerous high-hazard, large dams that provide electricity generation, flood control, recreation, transportation, drinking water, and agricultural operations

Public Health

Protecting the state’s population also means considering emerging communicable diseases—whether occurring domestically or abroad. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, which reached near-pandemic levels between November 2002 and July 2003, was an important reminder for the emergency management, homeland security, and health sectors that naturally occurring communicable diseases remain a significant threat, despite tremendous advances in health care over the past several decades. The ongoing threat of a pandemic and state’s role as a major hub for international travel increases its risk of a foreign-born communicable illness being introduced into the population. Additionally, communicable infectious diseases in nonhuman populations, such as an outbreak of chronic wasting disease, can pose a significant threat to the state’s domestic livestock and wild animal populations and required a major response by local and state government agencies to mitigate.

The following information consists of a scenario introduction. The scenario is about State A and provides some of the information necessary to develop the State A Homeland Security Strategic Plan. While the information is about a fictitious state, the underlying information is derived from actual state information in an attempt to ensure the scenario is a realistic as possible.

Demographics/Socioeconomics

State A’s population is approximately 20 million people. This is approximately 6.5% of the U.S. population. State A’s population is primarily located in urban and suburban settings, with the remainder of the state being sparsely populated. On average, there are 40 persons per square mile in the state.

6% of the population is under 5 years old

23% of the population is under 18 years old

13% of the population is over 65 years old

There are 8 million housing units in the state, with a median housing unit valued at $150,000. The median household income is $56,000, with 14% of the population living below the poverty line.

With respect to the private sector, there are 1.7 million businesses within the state that employ 8 million people.

Infrastructure

State A has considerable infrastructure that is threatened by both deferred maintenance and malevolent acts such as terrorism. State A has a vast and varied transportation system:

The system sees more than 140 billion vehicle miles driven on almost 110,000 miles of highways and more than 18,000 highway bridges.

Over 500 public and private aviation facilities serve 84 million passengers annually.

The state’s ports handle more than 150 million tons of freight each year.

Approximately 73.5 million tons of freight move across 3,500 miles of railroads annually.

These railroads also provide facilities that serve approximately 1.5 million intercity passenger rail riders.

Each day, 7.1 million passengers are served by more than 130 public transit operators, including subway, commuter rail, and buses.

Other major infrastructure includes the following:

Power-generating stations

An electrical grid that is integrated into a regional grid

Numerous major pipelines carrying fuel and natural gas essential for winter heating, vehicle fueling, power plant operation, and fueling manufacturing and other economic activity

Numerous high-hazard, large dams that provide electricity generation, flood control, recreation, transportation, drinking water, and agricultural operations

Public Health

Protecting the state’s population also means considering emerging communicable diseases—whether occurring domestically or abroad. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, which reached near-pandemic levels between November 2002 and July 2003, was an important reminder for the emergency management, homeland security, and health sectors that naturally occurring communicable diseases remain a significant threat, despite tremendous advances in health care over the past several decades. The ongoing threat of a pandemic and state’s role as a major hub for international travel increases its risk of a foreign-born communicable illness being introduced into the population. Additionally, communicable infectious diseases in nonhuman populations, such as an outbreak of chronic wasting disease, can pose a significant threat to the state’s domestic livestock and wild animal populations and required a major response by local and state government agencies to mitigate.

Terrorism

State A has suffered several devastating losses from terror attacks. While tremendous investments (including financial, work effort, and physical construction) have been made over recent years and risk assessments conducted by the DHS, the state, and academic organizations on the subject of modern terrorism, urban areas in State A continue to remain likely targets of terrorism.

The terrorist threat to State A is not limited to a single terrorist group, and the state has faced threats from members of a variety of terrorist and criminal organizations. These threats have emerged from domestic and international groups, lone individuals inspired by radical philosophies, and nonstate organizations.

Currently, there is consensus in the U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) that the greatest threat of a terrorist attack is posed by terrorist groups associated with Al Qaeda. This includes Al Qaeda as well as homegrown terrorist cells. There are also many domestic groups that threaten the state, including networks of individuals who intend to demonstrate violent behavior against the public, government, or private sector.

The Climate of State A

Physical Description

State A contains 30,000 square miles, inclusive of 1,000 square miles of inland water. The major portion of the state lies generally between latitudes 41 and 44 °N and between longitudes 75 and 83 °W. State A is defined by several geomorphic provinces that include a broad coastal plain, uplands, and mountains, with approximately one third of the state located within each province. The uplands and mountains drain to the coast mostly through the River A, and the River A Valley transects the state.

Approximately 40% of State A has an elevation of more than 1,000 feet above sea level. On the mountainous area are a number of peaks with an elevation of between 6,000 and 7,000 feet. These are the highest mountains in eastern North America.

General Climatic Features

The climate of State A is broadly representative of the humid continental type that is found in the northeastern United States, but there is broad diversity encountered across the state. The location of State A and the normal movement of air masses, governed by the mesoscale patterns of atmospheric circulation, provide the overall climatic mechanisms. Differences in latitude and topography, as well as proximity to large bodies of water, have a major effect on the climate.

The planetary atmospheric circulation brings a great variety of air masses to State A. Masses of cold, dry air often enter the state from the northern interior of the country. Prevailing winds from the south and southwest carry warm, humid air. The northern and southern air masses provide the dominant characteristics of the state's climate. On occasion, air mass flows inland from the North Atlantic Ocean and produces cool, cloudy, and damp weather. This maritime influence is important to State A’s climatic regime, especially in the coastal portion of the state, but it is not as prevalent as air mass flow from the continent.

Nearly all weather systems moving eastward across the United States pass through State A. Storm systems often move northward along the coast and have an important influence on the weather and climate of coastal portions of the state Frequently, areas deep in the interior of the state feel the effects of such coastal storms.

Lengthy periods of either abnormally cold weather in the winter or warm weather in the summer result from the passage of high pressure systems through the eastern United States. Cold winter temperatures prevail over State A whenever arctic air masses move southward from Canada. High-pressure systems often move just off the coast, become more or less stagnant for several days, known as Bermuda high, and then an ongoing airflow from the southwest or south increases temperatures and humidity across the state. This circulation brings the very warm and humid weather of the summer and the mild, moderate weather the other seasons of the year.

Temperature

Many atmospheric and physiographic controls on the climate result in a considerable variation of temperature conditions over State A. The average annual mean temperature ranges from about 40° in the mountainous areas to near 55° on the coast. In January, the average mean temperature is approximately 16° in the mountainous areas and to 31° along the coast. The highest temperature of record in State A is 110°. The record coldest temperature is -50°. Some 40 communities have recorded temperatures of negative 40° or colder, and most of them are located in the northern half of the state.

The winters are long and cold in the mountains and uplands of the state. Most winters, a temperature of -25° or lower can be expected in the northern uplands and -15° or colder in the south uplands. The mountainous region records 35–45 days with below zero temperatures in normal to severe winters.

Winter temperatures are moderated by the ocean, with the coldest temperature in most winters ranging between 0° and -10°. In coastal communities, they experience temperatures below zero in about 1 out of 4 winters, with the low temperature generally near -5°.

The summer climate is cool in the higher elevations. Coastal areas have rather warm summers by comparison, with some periods of high, uncomfortable humidity. The remainder of State A enjoys pleasantly warm summers, marred by only occasional, brief intervals of very hot, humid conditions. In the summer, daytime temperatures usually range from the upper 60s to mid-70s over much of the state, producing an environment favorable to outdoor activities.

Temperatures of 90 °F or higher occur from late May to mid-September in most of the state. The coastal areas record an average of 15–23 days of temperatures over 90 °F during the summer, but in the uplands, the normal quota does not exceed 2 or 3 days. Temperatures of 100 °F are rare, though many weather stations, especially in the southern half of the state, have recorded maximums in the 100–105 °F range on occasion. Minimum nighttime temperatures range from the 40s and upper 30s during the summer in the interior portions of the uplands.

Precipitation

Moisture for precipitation in State A is transported primarily from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Average annual precipitation amounts in excess of 45 inches occur in mountainous areas, with average accumulations of about 30 inches, occurring in other areas. State A has a fairly uniform distribution of precipitation during the year. The state is not known

for having dry or wet seasons. In general, lower levels of precipitation occur in the winter. Average monthly amounts in the summer vary from 3 to 4 inches.

Variations in monthly precipitation or for the same month in different years can be significant for any individual area. Almost any month during the year has the potential of having the least or most monthly accumulation of precipitation within a calendar year at a given location. The greatest monthly precipitation of record in State A was a total of 25 inches. On the other hand, wide areas of the state have measured less than 0.3 inch of rain monthly.

The rain and snowfall and their distribution are usually sufficient for the maintenance of the state's water resources for drinking, industrial usage, transportation, and recreation. Rainfall is usually sufficient during the growing season for crops, lawns and gardens, and forests. Severe droughts are rare, but shortfalls in precipitation occur from time to time, which reduces the availability of water supplies and increases stress on crops and other vegetation. Sometimes, shortfalls in precipitation during the spring or fall months results in a considerable fire hazard in the state's forests.

Snowfall

The climate of State A is marked by abundant snowfall. With the exception of the coastal plain, the state receives an average seasonal amount of 40 inches or more. The average snowfall is greater than 70 inches over some 60% of the state’s area. The moderating influence of the ocean reduces the snow accumulation to 25–35 inches on the coastal plan. About one half of the precipitation during the winter season in the coastal plain occurs from storms, which also yield at least 1 inch of snow. The great bulk of the winter precipitation in upland and mountainous areas comes as snow.

Topographic relief, elevation, and proximity to large bodies of water result in significant variation of snowfall in the state's interior. Maximum seasonal snowfall, averaging more than 175 inches, occurs on the western and southwestern slopes of the mountains. A secondary maximum of 150–180 inches prevails in the uplands. Seasonal snowfall of 40 to 50 inches occurs in other areas of the state. Monthly precipitation between 3–10 inches usually occurs in coastal areas during the winter season, but occasionally the amounts exceed 25 inches as a result of multiple coastal storms.

Floods

Although major floods are infrequent, some level of flood damage occurs almost every year in one or more localities in the state. Floods from a variety of causes have occurred in all seasons. The greatest potential for floods occurs in the early spring when significant rainfall combines with rapidly melting snow that, together, produce heavy runoff. In the past 100 years, several historic floods from this cause have occurred on the major rivers of southern and eastern parts of the state. In the northern parts of the state, colder early spring temperatures generally produce a slower rate of snowmelt. In localized areas, ice jams sometimes contribute to serious flooding.

Prolonged periods of heavy rainfall can cause damaging floods at other times of the year. Metropolitan and other heavily urbanized areas of the state are becoming increasingly subject to localized flooding of roadways and low-lying ground. Replacement of the natural soil cover with impervious materials encourages such floods from moderately heavy rains that formerly were easily absorbed.

Coastal areas are subject to tidal flooding during storm surges. Significant winds generated by hurricanes and other large-scale and intense coastal storms may drive tidal floodwaters well inland, causing extensive property damage and beach erosion.

Winds and Storms

The prevailing wind is generally from the west in State A. Winds out of the southwest prevail during the warmer months, while winds out of the northwest are characteristic of the colder months. On some occasions, very strong winds accompany significant storm systems moving across the country or along the Atlantic coast that can cause considerable property damage over significant portions of the state.

Thunderstorms occur on an average of 40 days in a year. Destructive winds and lightning strikes are common with the more severe thunderstorms. Locally, hail can occur with more severe thunderstorms, but significant property and crop losses are rare.

Tornadoes are not common. About three or four of these storms strike limited, localized areas of State A in most years. The paths of tornado destruction mostly occur in rural or wooded areas and usually are not extensive in coverage. Tornadoes occur generally between late April and late September.

Freezing rain events occur on more than one occasion during the winter and often affect a wide area of the state. Such storms result in dangerous coating of ice on highways, sidewalks, and exposed surfaces, as well as the destruction of utility lines, transmission towers, and trees over an extensive portion of the state. Tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, occasionally cause significant losses in the vicinity of the coast. Only on rare occasions has there been serious damage to the interior portion of the state.

The greatest state-wide, storm-related hazard in terms of area impact and number of people affected is a major snowfall. Coastal storms occur with some frequency in most winters. Snowfalls of 12–24 inches or more from such storms have fallen over the southern quarter of the state and will often extend into the western and northern interior of the state. Blizzard conditions occur occasionally but are much less characteristics of the state’s climate than in the plains of Midwestern United States.

Climate and the Economy

State A’s diversified economy, involving agriculture, industry, commerce, and recreation, is greatly influenced by the climate. The general climate as well as regional variations in climate throughout the state support diversified agriculture. Dairy farming is the largest agricultural

activity in the state. Both the precipitation and temperatures found in State A are favorable for the growth of alfalfa and grasses for hay and of corn for silage throughout rural portions of the state, except where limitations are imposed by soils and topography. Corn, for use as grain, is produced on some 1 million acres. The amount and distribution of rainfall, warm (rather than hot) daytime temperatures, and frequent cool nights in western and central portions of the state are important environmental factors that aid in the growing of 450,000 acres of small grains. Dry beans, snap beans, and sugar beets are additional valuable crops, which thrive well in the state’s climate.

Ample precipitation, consistent runoff, and adequate groundwater contribute to significant water resources in the state. The state's significant water resources have supported the growth of its large metropolitan areas, the creation of a diverse industrial base, and the development of waterways and reservoirs for transportation, power, recreation, and municipal supplies.

Though rigorous and sometimes severe, the state’s winter climate is an asset to the economy. Abundant snowfall has made possible the development of skiing and snowmobiling into very important activities for winter sports and recreation. The moderate climate during other seasons is a prominent factor in attracting tourists and vacationers to the state.

In summary, the state's climate contributes significantly to the agricultural, industrial, commercial, and recreational economy. Additionally, the climate has been a major asset to the development of State A and to its economic growth.

Earthquakes and Tsunamis

The state has a long history of significant seismic activity. Notably, four magnitude 6.5 or stronger earthquakes have struck the state, causing significant damage and moderate loss of life. Future significant earthquakes will occur, and a large earthquake is predicted to occur within the next 30 years that has the potential to damage hundreds of thousands of residential and commercial structures and to threaten the lives of thousands of residents of the state. There is little risk of a significant tsunami threatening the coastal areas of the state.