Linear Regression and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecasting

Mod 2 Case - LR - Year 1

					New Star Grocery Company								Insert chart here
	Year 1	Customers	Sales ($000)		Number	Month	Customers (x)	Sales (y)	XY	X2	Y2
	January	185	230		1	January	185	230	42,550.0	34,225	52,900.00
	February	241	301		2	February	241	301	72,541.0	58,081	90,601.00
	March	374	310		3	March	374	310	115,940.0	139,876	96,100.00
	April	421	389		4	April	421	389	163,769.0	177,241	151,321.00
	May	425	421		5	May	425	421	178,925.0	180,625	177,241.00
	June	259	300		6	June	259	300	77,700.0	67,081	90,000.00
	July	298	318		7	July	298	318	94,764.0	88,804	101,124.00
	August	321	298		8	August	321	298	95,658.0	103,041	88,804.00
	September	215	202		9	September	215	202	43,430.0	46,225	40,804.00
	October	282	265		10	October	282	265	74,730.0	79,524	70,225.00
	November	235	312		11	November	235	312	73,320.0	55,225	97,344.00
	December	300	298		12	December	300	298	89,400.0	90,000	88,804.00
					Totals		3556	3644	1,122,727.0	1,119,948	1,145,268.00
					Mean		296	303.67
							X-bar	Y-bar
					b1	0.6480
					b0	111.65
					Y=111.65+ 0.6480*x

Scatter Plot

Sales (y)

185 241 374 421 425 259 298 321 215 282 235 300 230 301 310 389 421 300 318 298 202 265 312 298

Customers

Sales

Year 2 Forecast

						New Star Grocery Company
								Sales
		b1	0.6480			Year 2	Customers (x)	Actual Y(t)	Forecast F(t)	Variance
		b0	111.65			January	215		251	-251.0
						February	259		279	-279.5
		Y= b0+ b1x				March	325		322	-322.2
						April	354		341	-341.0
						May	258		279	-278.8
						June	199		241	-240.6
						July	254		276	-276.2
						August	299		305	-305.4
						September	264		283	-282.7
						October	198		240	-239.9
						November	223		256	-256.1
						December	261		281	-280.8
						Totals	259.08	ERROR:#DIV/0!	279.53	-279.53