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2021Jan28TSLAQuantumStandardFinancials.xlsx

Metrics

Buy Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Mark Delaney, CFA Price: $793.53
[email protected] 12m Price Target: $835.00
+1 212 357-0535 Upside: 5.2%
New York Price as of Jan 29, 2021
Key Data
Market cap $891.9bn
Enterprise value $879,529.1mn
3m ADTV $28.2bn
United States
Americas Autos & Industrial Tech
M&A Rank 3
GS Forecast 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue ($ mn) 3,408.8 4,002.2 6,824.4 7,225.9 21,461.3 4,541.5 6,349.7 6,303.0 7,384.0 24,578.1 5,985.0 6,036.0 8,771.0 10,744.0 31,536.0 8,733.4 10,344.7 12,758.2 15,691.9 47,528.2 59,619.0 68,617.8 -- --
EBITDA ($ mn) 3.5 142.3 1,210.9 1,038.1 2,394.9 154.1 571.5 1,083.9 1,175.0 2,984.5 951.0 1,209.0 1,776.0 1,850.0 5,786.0 1,599.9 1,964.8 2,716.7 3,503.1 9,784.5 13,678.8 15,658.5 -- --
EBIT ($ mn) (597.0) (621.4) 416.8 413.5 (388.1) (521.8) (167.5) 261.0 359.0 (69.3) 283.0 327.0 809.0 575.0 1,994.0 180.9 420.8 1,172.7 1,849.1 3,623.5 6,312.8 7,162.5 -- --
EPS ($) (0.84) (0.84) 0.35 0.16 (1.12) (0.81) (0.46) 0.16 0.11 (0.96) 0.02 0.10 0.27 0.24 0.65 0.02 0.17 0.67 1.23 2.10 3.75 4.35 -- --
P/E (X) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
EV/EBITDA (X) NM 411.3 49.2 58.4 24.7 384.0 82.3 43.8 54.0 17.9 121.9 125.9 184.4 257.6 45.0 469.6 385.6 280.5 218.3 77.3 56.6 50.6 -- --
FCF yield (%) (1.9) (1.5) 1.5 1.5 (0.3) (1.9) 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.6 (0.9) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 NM NM
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- --
Net debt/EBITDA (X) NM 47.3 5.1 4.9 2.1 46.1 10.1 5.1 4.1 1.6 2.2 1.1 (2.5) (5.6) (1.8) (5.8) (4.3) (3.6) (3.5) (1.3) (1.2) (1.3) -- --
Ratios & Valuations 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
P/E (X) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
EV/EBITDA (X) NM 411.3 49.2 58.4 24.7 384.0 82.3 43.8 54.0 17.9 121.9 125.9 184.4 257.6 45.0 469.6 385.6 280.5 218.3 77.3 56.6 50.6 -- --
EV/sales (X) 18.0 14.6 8.7 8.4 2.8 13.0 7.4 7.5 8.6 2.2 19.4 25.2 37.3 44.4 8.3 86.0 73.2 59.7 48.7 15.9 13.0 11.6 -- --
FCF yield (%) (1.9) (1.5) 1.5 1.5 (0.3) (1.9) 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.6 (0.9) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 NM NM
EV/DACF (X) 887.4 309.7 51.3 52.8 23.1 328.9 66.1 44.6 48.3 16.2 102.3 114.0 172.9 238.3 40.7 477.3 410.5 315.6 241.2 84.1 64.1 56.5 -- --
CROCI (%) 0.8 1.9 10.8 10.5 26.6 1.6 6.0 8.8 10.6 28.1 8.6 9.2 12.4 13.0 45.9 9.5 9.7 11.6 14.7 48.5 47.2 41.2 -- --
ROE (%) (16.3) (17.2) 7.4 3.0 (21.3) (14.7) (7.9) 2.4 1.7 (14.9) 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.4 4.8 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.4 9.7 14.4 13.9 -- --
Net debt/EBITDA (X) NM 47.3 5.1 4.9 2.1 46.1 10.1 5.1 4.1 1.6 2.2 1.1 (2.5) (5.6) (1.8) (5.8) (4.3) (3.6) (3.5) (1.3) (1.2) (1.3) -- --
Net debt/equity (%) 96.9 127.7 105.0 81.2 81.2 117.7 80.9 73.3 59.8 59.8 19.9 11.6 (25.4) (43.7) (43.7) (38.1) (33.8) (36.8) (43.4) (43.4) (45.7) (47.6) -- --
Interest cover (X) (4.0) (3.8) 2.4 2.4 (0.6) (3.3) (1.0) 1.4 2.1 (0.1) 1.7 1.9 5.0 2.3 2.7 1.0 3.1 8.8 14.0 6.3 12.2 14.5 -- --
Inventory days 298.5 317.7 228.6 202.8 56.3 319.0 242.7 248.6 217.2 59.3 309.1 325.7 224.1 175.0 56.1 273.4 301.3 286.3 253.0 61.3 76.7 78.8 -- --
Receivable days 62.5 55.8 46.1 53.1 12.5 80.2 63.1 65.9 60.6 16.9 79.2 83.4 67.5 61.9 18.6 77.5 70.3 67.0 61.4 17.8 18.9 19.1 -- --
Days payable outstanding 308.7 303.9 228.2 221.0 60.7 305.4 214.6 235.7 220.4 63.8 297.4 291.1 233.9 231.5 72.0 340.8 310.9 289.8 282.3 78.2 82.8 74.3 -- --
Growth & Margins (%) 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Total revenue growth 3.7 17.4 70.5 5.9 82.5 (37.1) 39.8 (0.7) 17.2 14.5 (18.9) 0.9 45.3 22.5 28.3 (18.7) 18.5 23.3 23.0 50.7 25.4 15.1 -- --
EBITDA growth (40.6) 24.7 775.5 (1.0) 38,525.9 (106.0) 857.8 92.6 18.2 37.8 (10.7) 6.9 55.8 (14.4) 107.0 (20.7) 41.2 56.3 37.2 67.6 53.8 17.1 -- --
EPS growth (9.1) (0.6) 141.4 (55.4) 51.2 (621.0) 43.1 133.6 (27.8) 14.6 (85.7) 524.9 170.2 (11.5) 167.7 (90.9) 660.2 301.3 83.8 224.4 78.2 16.2 -- --
DPS growth NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM -- --
Gross margin 13.4 15.5 22.3 20.0 18.8 12.5 14.5 18.9 18.8 16.6 20.6 21.0 23.5 19.2 21.0 18.8 18.5 21.0 21.7 20.3 21.7 20.7 -- --
EBIT margin (17.5) (15.5) 6.1 5.7 (1.8) (11.5) (2.6) 4.1 4.9 (0.3) 4.7 5.4 9.2 5.4 6.3 2.1 4.1 9.2 11.8 7.6 10.6 10.4 -- --
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

Income Statement

Buy Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Mark Delaney, CFA Price: $793.53
[email protected] 12m Price Target: $835.00
+1 212 357-0535 Upside: 5.2%
New York Price as of Jan 29, 2021
Income Statement ($ mn) 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Total revenue 3,408.8 4,002.2 6,824.4 7,225.9 21,461.3 4,541.5 6,349.7 6,303.0 7,384.0 24,578.1 5,985.0 6,036.0 8,771.0 10,744.0 31,536.0 8,733.4 10,344.7 12,758.2 15,691.9 47,528.2 59,619.0 68,617.8 -- --
Cost of goods sold (2,952.2) (3,383.3) (5,300.7) (5,783.0) (17,419.2) (3,975.7) (5,428.6) (5,112.0) (5,993.0) (20,509.4) (4,751.0) (4,769.0) (6,708.0) (8,678.0) (24,906.0) (7,094.0) (8,429.1) (10,073.6) (12,289.4) (37,886.1) (46,685.1) (54,383.3) -- --
SG&A (686.4) (854.2) (756.1) (673.1) (2,969.7) (747.4) (764.6) (596.0) (687.0) (2,795.0) (627.0) (661.0) (888.0) (969.0) (3,145.0) (960.7) (982.7) (988.8) (1,020.0) (3,952.1) (4,363.6) (4,705.5) -- --
R&D (367.1) (386.1) (350.8) (356.3) (1,460.4) (340.2) (323.9) (334.0) (345.0) (1,343.1) (324.0) (279.0) (366.0) (522.0) (1,491.0) (497.8) (512.1) (523.1) (533.5) (2,066.5) (2,257.4) (2,366.5) -- --
Other operating inc./(exp.) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
EBITDA (180.7) (136.1) 919.6 910.3 1,513.0 (54.3) 411.1 791.9 936.0 2,084.7 836.0 894.0 1,393.0 1,193.0 4,316.0 945.9 1,335.8 2,087.7 2,864.1 7,233.5 11,122.8 13,022.5 -- --
Depreciation & amortization (416.2) (485.3) (502.8) (496.7) (1,901.1) (467.6) (578.6) (530.9) (577.0) (2,154.0) (553.0) (567.0) (584.0) (618.0) (2,322.0) (765.0) (915.0) (915.0) (1,015.0) (3,610.0) (4,810.0) (5,860.0) -- --
EBIT (597.0) (621.4) 416.8 413.5 (388.1) (521.8) (167.5) 261.0 359.0 (69.3) 283.0 327.0 809.0 575.0 1,994.0 180.9 420.8 1,172.7 1,849.1 3,623.5 6,312.8 7,162.5 -- --
Net interest inc./(exp.) (144.3) (158.5) (168.3) (167.4) (638.5) (148.7) (161.6) (170.0) (160.0) (640.3) (159.0) (162.0) (157.0) (240.0) (718.0) (165.0) (124.5) (123.3) (122.0) (534.8) (425.6) (394.0) -- --
Income/(loss) from associates -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pre-tax profit (779.0) (729.0) 271.3 232.0 (1,004.7) (644.8) (369.8) 176.0 174.0 (664.6) 70.0 150.0 555.0 379.0 1,154.0 59.9 340.3 1,093.5 1,771.0 3,264.7 6,063.2 6,944.6 -- --
Provision for taxes (5.6) (13.7) (16.6) (21.9) (57.8) (22.9) (19.4) (26.0) (42.0) (110.3) (2.0) (21.0) (186.0) (83.0) (292.0) (10.0) (100.0) (275.0) (300.0) (685.0) (1,415.0) (1,440.0) -- --
Minority interest 75.1 25.2 56.8 (70.6) 86.5 (34.5) (19.1) (7.0) (27.0) (87.6) (52.0) (25.0) (69.0) (26.0) (172.0) (25.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (175.0) (240.0) (240.0) -- --
Preferred dividends -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) (709.6) (717.5) 311.5 139.5 (976.1) (702.1) (408.3) 143.0 105.0 (862.5) 16.0 104.0 300.0 270.0 690.0 24.9 190.3 768.5 1,421.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6 -- --
Net inc. (post-exceptionals) (709.6) (717.5) 311.5 139.5 (976.1) (702.1) (408.3) 143.0 105.0 (862.5) 16.0 104.0 300.0 270.0 690.0 24.9 190.3 768.5 1,421.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6 -- --
EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) (0.84) (0.84) 0.36 0.16 (1.14) (0.81) (0.46) 0.16 0.12 (0.97) 0.02 0.11 0.32 0.28 0.74 0.03 0.20 0.79 1.45 2.48 4.42 5.14 -- --
EPS (diluted, pre-except) ($) (0.84) (0.84) 0.35 0.16 (1.12) (0.81) (0.46) 0.16 0.11 (0.96) 0.02 0.10 0.27 0.24 0.65 0.02 0.17 0.67 1.23 2.10 3.75 4.35 -- --
EPS (ex-ESO exp., dil.) ($) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
DPS ($) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Div. payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- --
Wtd avg shares out. (basic) (mn) 845.7 850.0 854.5 860.1 852.6 864.9 883.3 895.0 900.0 885.8 915.0 930.0 937.0 951.0 933.3 958.5 965.5 972.5 979.5 969.0 997.0 1,025.0 0.0 0.0
Wtd avg shares out. (diluted) (mn) 845.7 850.0 891.0 895.1 870.5 864.9 883.3 920.0 935.0 900.8 995.0 1,035.0 1,105.0 1,124.0 1,064.8 1,132.5 1,140.5 1,147.5 1,154.5 1,143.8 1,176.4 1,209.4 -- --
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

Balance Sheet

Buy Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Mark Delaney, CFA Price: $793.53
[email protected] 12m Price Target: $835.00
+1 212 357-0535 Upside: 5.2%
New York Price as of Jan 29, 2021
Balance Sheet ($ mn) 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Cash & cash equivalents 3,219.7 2,783.2 3,523.0 4,276.4 4,276.4 2,682.8 5,448.3 5,826.0 6,783.0 6,783.0 8,547.0 9,106.0 15,003.0 19,901.0 19,901.0 17,425.2 16,394.9 17,412.6 19,804.6 19,804.6 22,659.7 26,055.8 -- --
Accounts receivable 652.8 569.9 1,155.0 949.0 949.0 1,046.9 1,147.1 1,128.0 1,324.0 1,324.0 1,274.0 1,485.0 1,757.0 1,886.0 1,886.0 1,823.4 2,159.9 2,523.6 2,759.0 2,759.0 3,400.2 3,790.7 -- --
Inventory 2,565.8 3,324.6 3,314.1 3,113.4 3,113.4 3,836.9 3,382.4 3,581.0 3,552.0 3,552.0 4,494.0 4,018.0 4,218.0 4,101.0 4,101.0 6,526.0 7,389.1 8,412.0 8,621.9 8,621.9 11,000.6 12,487.1 -- --
Other current assets 379.4 422.0 325.2 365.7 365.7 464.9 569.7 660.0 713.0 713.0 852.0 1,015.0 1,064.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 -- --
Total current assets 6,817.8 7,099.8 8,317.3 8,704.5 8,704.5 8,031.5 10,547.5 11,195.0 12,372.0 12,372.0 15,167.0 15,624.0 22,042.0 27,015.0 27,015.0 26,901.7 27,070.9 29,475.2 32,312.6 32,312.6 38,187.5 43,460.7 -- --
Net PP&E 10,519.2 10,969.3 11,246.3 11,330.1 11,330.1 11,104.0 11,330.7 11,424.0 11,614.0 11,614.0 11,835.0 12,283.0 13,223.0 14,305.0 14,305.0 14,805.0 15,155.0 15,555.0 15,855.0 15,855.0 16,705.0 18,405.0 -- --
Net intangibles 407.7 364.7 356.7 350.7 350.7 347.9 480.8 537.0 537.0 537.0 516.0 508.0 521.0 520.0 520.0 505.0 490.0 475.0 460.0 460.0 400.0 340.0 -- --
Total investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- --
Other long-term assets 9,526.7 9,476.2 9,342.4 9,354.4 9,354.4 9,429.2 9,513.5 9,639.0 9,786.0 9,786.0 10,006.0 10,008.0 10,203.0 10,606.0 10,606.0 10,631.0 10,656.0 10,681.0 10,706.0 10,706.0 10,806.0 10,906.0 -- --
Total assets 27,271.4 27,910.0 29,262.7 29,739.6 29,739.6 28,912.5 31,872.6 32,795.0 34,309.0 34,309.0 37,250.0 38,135.0 45,691.0 52,148.0 52,148.0 52,544.7 53,073.9 55,888.2 59,035.6 59,035.6 65,800.5 72,813.7 -- --
Accounts payable 2,603.5 3,030.5 3,597.0 3,404.5 3,404.5 3,248.8 3,133.6 3,468.0 3,771.0 3,771.0 3,970.0 3,638.0 4,958.0 6,051.0 6,051.0 7,197.8 7,161.7 8,832.6 10,173.9 10,173.9 11,000.6 11,149.2 -- --
Short-term debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Current lease liabilities 1,998.0 2,103.2 2,106.5 2,567.7 2,567.7 1,705.7 1,791.1 2,030.0 1,785.0 1,785.0 3,217.0 3,679.0 3,126.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 -- --
Other current liabilities 4,048.8 4,007.7 4,071.8 4,020.0 4,020.0 4,288.3 4,664.1 4,648.0 5,111.0 5,111.0 4,799.0 4,953.0 5,218.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 -- --
Total current liabilities 8,650.4 9,141.4 9,775.3 9,992.1 9,992.1 9,242.8 9,588.8 10,146.0 10,667.0 10,667.0 11,986.0 12,270.0 13,302.0 14,248.0 14,248.0 15,394.8 15,358.7 17,029.6 18,370.9 18,370.9 19,197.6 19,346.2 -- --
Long-term debt 8,761.1 9,510.7 9,669.9 9,403.7 9,403.7 9,788.0 11,234.4 11,313.0 11,634.0 11,634.0 10,666.0 10,416.0 10,559.0 9,556.0 9,556.0 8,156.0 7,906.0 7,656.0 7,406.0 7,406.0 6,406.0 5,406.0 -- --
Non-current lease liabilities -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Other long-term liabilities 4,139.6 3,990.8 3,963.9 4,030.2 4,030.2 3,843.9 3,899.0 3,854.0 3,898.0 3,898.0 3,926.0 4,112.0 4,330.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 -- --
Total long-term liabilities 12,900.7 13,501.5 13,633.8 13,433.9 13,433.9 13,631.8 15,133.4 15,167.0 15,532.0 15,532.0 14,592.0 14,528.0 14,889.0 14,221.0 14,221.0 12,821.0 12,571.0 12,321.0 12,071.0 12,071.0 11,071.0 10,071.0 -- --
Total liabilities 21,551.0 22,642.9 23,409.1 23,426.0 23,426.0 22,874.6 24,722.1 25,313.0 26,199.0 26,199.0 26,578.0 26,798.0 28,191.0 28,469.0 28,469.0 28,215.8 27,929.7 29,350.6 30,441.9 30,441.9 30,268.6 29,417.2 -- --
Preferred shares -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Total common equity 4,450.7 3,906.4 4,508.8 4,923.2 4,923.2 4,605.6 5,715.4 6,040.0 6,618.0 6,618.0 9,173.0 9,855.0 16,031.0 22,225.0 22,225.0 22,874.9 23,690.2 25,083.6 27,139.7 27,139.7 34,077.9 41,942.5 -- --
Minority interest 1,269.7 1,360.7 1,344.7 1,390.4 1,390.4 1,432.3 1,435.1 1,442.0 1,492.0 1,492.0 1,499.0 1,482.0 1,469.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 -- --
Total liabilities & equity 27,271.4 27,910.0 29,262.7 29,739.6 29,739.6 28,912.5 31,872.6 32,795.0 34,309.0 34,309.0 37,250.0 38,135.0 45,691.0 52,148.0 52,148.0 52,544.7 53,073.9 55,888.2 59,035.6 59,035.6 65,800.5 72,813.7 -- --
BVPS ($) 5.26 4.60 5.06 5.50 5.66 5.32 6.47 6.57 7.08 7.35 9.22 9.52 14.51 19.77 20.87 20.20 20.77 21.86 23.51 23.73 28.97 34.68 -- --
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

Cash Flow

Buy Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Mark Delaney, CFA Price: $793.53
[email protected] 12m Price Target: $835.00
+1 212 357-0535 Upside: 5.2%
New York Price as of Jan 29, 2021
Cash Flow ($ mn) 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021E Q1 2021E Q2 2021E Q3 2021E Q4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Net income (784.6) (742.7) 254.7 210.1 (1,062.6) (667.6) (389.3) 149.9 132.0 (775.0) 68.0 129.0 369.0 296.0 862.0 24.9 190.3 768.5 1,421.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6 -- --
D&A add-back 416.2 485.3 502.8 496.7 1,901.1 467.6 578.6 530.9 577.0 2,154.0 553.0 567.0 584.0 618.0 2,322.0 765.0 915.0 915.0 1,015.0 3,610.0 4,810.0 5,860.0 -- --
Minority interest add-back -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Net (inc)/dec working capital (325.4) (167.0) 351.3 199.0 58.0 (676.1) 287.1 (191.0) 231.0 (349.0) (1,447.0) (246.0) 635.0 1,242.0 184.0 (1,215.7) (1,235.6) 284.2 895.9 (1,271.1) (2,193.1) (1,728.4) -- --
Others 295.4 294.8 282.5 328.7 1,201.4 236.6 387.1 266.3 485.0 1,375.0 386.0 514.0 812.0 863.0 2,575.0 625.0 625.0 625.0 635.0 2,510.0 2,530.0 2,600.0 -- --
Cash flow from operations (398.4) (129.7) 1,391.3 1,234.6 2,097.8 (639.6) 863.6 756.0 1,425.0 2,405.0 (440.0) 964.0 2,400.0 3,019.0 5,943.0 199.2 494.7 2,592.7 3,967.0 7,253.6 9,555.1 11,996.1 -- --
Capital expenditures (655.7) (609.8) (510.3) (325.0) (2,100.7) (279.9) (249.7) (385.4) (412.0) (1,327.0) (455.0) (546.0) (1,005.0) (1,151.0) (3,157.0) (1,250.0) (1,250.0) (1,300.0) (1,300.0) (5,100.0) (5,600.0) (7,500.0) -- --
Acquisitions -- (5.6) (1.2) (11.1) (17.9) (0.7) 31.7 (76.0) 46.0 1.0 1.0 -- (13.0) 122.0 110.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Divestitures -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Others (73.0) (67.4) (49.5) (28.9) (218.8) (25.3) (23.5) (24.2) (37.0) (110.0) (26.0) (20.0) (21.0) (18.0) (85.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) -- --
Cash flow from investing (728.6) (682.8) (561.0) (365.0) (2,337.4) (305.8) (241.5) (485.6) (403.0) (1,436.0) (480.0) (566.0) (1,039.0) (1,047.0) (3,132.0) (1,275.0) (1,275.0) (1,325.0) (1,325.0) (5,200.0) (5,700.0) (7,600.0) -- --
Dividends paid -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Share issuance/(repurchase) -- -- -- -- -- -- 848.2 (0.2) -- 848.0 2,309.0 -- 4,973.0 4,987.0 12,269.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Inc/(dec) in debt 368.6 388.4 (21.7) 93.8 829.1 (476.6) 1,783.8 210.9 (10.0) 1,508.0 484.0 236.0 (431.0) (2,074.0) (1,785.0) (1,400.0) (250.0) (250.0) (250.0) (2,150.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0) -- --
Others 32.0 17.0 (11.2) (135.0) (97.3) (104.8) (412.7) (22.9) 43.0 (497.4) (9.0) (21.0) 88.0 13.0 71.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Cash flow from financing 381.8 376.0 (90.6) (116.1) 551.1 (648.1) 2,143.4 107.3 (65.0) 1,537.6 2,684.0 161.0 4,536.0 2,926.0 10,307.0 (1,400.0) (250.0) (250.0) (250.0) (2,150.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0) -- --
Total cash flow (148.2) (436.5) 739.7 753.4 908.5 (1,593.6) 2,765.5 377.7 957.0 2,506.6 1,764.0 559.0 5,897.0 4,898.0 13,118.0 (2,475.8) (1,030.3) 1,017.7 2,392.0 (96.4) 2,855.1 3,396.1 -- --
Free cash flow (1,054.0) (739.5) 881.0 909.6 (2.9) (919.5) 613.9 370.6 1,013.0 1,078.0 (895.0) 418.0 1,395.0 1,868.0 2,786.0 (1,050.8) (755.3) 1,292.7 2,667.0 2,153.6 3,955.1 4,496.1 -- --
Free cash flow per share (basic) ($) (1.27) (0.90) 0.96 0.97 (0.22) (1.14) 0.61 0.32 1.02 0.85 (1.09) 0.39 1.39 1.96 2.72 (1.10) (0.78) 1.33 2.72 2.22 3.97 4.39 NM NM
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

Tear Sheet

Buy Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Mark Delaney, CFA Price: $793.53
[email protected] 12m Price Target: $835.00
+1 212 357-0535 Upside: 5.2%
New York Price as of Jan 29, 2021
Key Data
Market cap $891.9bn
Enterprise value $879,529.1mn
3m ADTV $28.2bn
United States
Americas Autos & Industrial Tech
M&A Rank 3
GS Forecast 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
Revenue ($ mn) 31,536.0 47,528.2 59,619.0 68,617.8
EBITDA ($ mn) 5,786.0 9,784.5 13,678.8 15,658.5
EBIT ($ mn) 1,994.0 3,623.5 6,312.8 7,162.5
EPS ($) 0.65 2.10 3.75 4.35
P/E (X) NM NM NM NM
EV/EBITDA (X) 45.0 77.3 56.6 50.6
FCF yield (%) 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt/EBITDA (X) (1.8) (1.3) (1.2) (1.3)
Ratios & Valuations 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
P/E (X) NM NM NM NM
EV/EBITDA (X) 45.0 77.3 56.6 50.6
EV/sales (X) 8.3 15.9 13.0 11.6
FCF yield (%) 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6
EV/DACF (X) 40.7 84.1 64.1 56.5
CROCI (%) 45.9 48.5 47.2 41.2
ROE (%) 4.8 9.7 14.4 13.9
Net debt/EBITDA (X) (1.8) (1.3) (1.2) (1.3)
Net debt/equity (%) (43.7) (43.4) (45.7) (47.6)
Interest cover (X) 2.7 6.3 12.2 14.5
Inventory days 56.1 61.3 76.7 78.8
Receivable days 18.6 17.8 18.9 19.1
Days payable outstanding 72.0 78.2 82.8 74.3
Growth & Margins (%) 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
Total revenue growth 28.3 50.7 25.4 15.1
EBITDA growth 107.0 67.6 53.8 17.1
EPS growth 167.7 224.4 78.2 16.2
DPS growth NM NM NM NM
Gross margin 21.0 20.3 21.7 20.7
EBIT margin 6.3 7.6 10.6 10.4
Income Statement ($ mn) 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
Total revenue 31,536.0 47,528.2 59,619.0 68,617.8
Cost of goods sold (24,906.0) (37,886.1) (46,685.1) (54,383.3)
SG&A (3,145.0) (3,952.1) (4,363.6) (4,705.5)
R&D (1,491.0) (2,066.5) (2,257.4) (2,366.5)
Other operating inc./(exp.) -- -- -- --
EBITDA 4,316.0 7,233.5 11,122.8 13,022.5
Depreciation & amortization (2,322.0) (3,610.0) (4,810.0) (5,860.0)
EBIT 1,994.0 3,623.5 6,312.8 7,162.5
Net interest inc./(exp.) (718.0) (534.8) (425.6) (394.0)
Income/(loss) from associates -- -- -- --
Pre-tax profit 1,154.0 3,264.7 6,063.2 6,944.6
Provision for taxes (292.0) (685.0) (1,415.0) (1,440.0)
Minority interest (172.0) (175.0) (240.0) (240.0)
Preferred dividends -- -- -- --
Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) 690.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6
Net inc. (post-exceptionals) 690.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6
EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) 0.74 2.48 4.42 5.14
EPS (diluted, pre-except) ($) 0.65 2.10 3.75 4.35
EPS (ex-ESO exp., dil.) ($) -- -- -- --
DPS ($) -- -- -- --
Div. payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wtd avg shares out. (basic) (mn) 933.3 969.0 997.0 1,025.0
Wtd avg shares out. (diluted) (mn) 1,064.8 1,143.8 1,176.4 1,209.4
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Page 1 of 2
Balance Sheet ($ mn) 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
Cash & cash equivalents 19,901.0 19,804.6 22,659.7 26,055.8
Accounts receivable 1,886.0 2,759.0 3,400.2 3,790.7
Inventory 4,101.0 8,621.9 11,000.6 12,487.1
Other current assets 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0 1,127.0
Total current assets 27,015.0 32,312.6 38,187.5 43,460.7
Net PP&E 14,305.0 15,855.0 16,705.0 18,405.0
Net intangibles 520.0 460.0 400.0 340.0
Total investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other long-term assets 10,606.0 10,706.0 10,806.0 10,906.0
Total assets 52,148.0 59,035.6 65,800.5 72,813.7
Accounts payable 6,051.0 10,173.9 11,000.6 11,149.2
Short-term debt -- -- -- --
Current lease liabilities 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0 2,132.0
Other current liabilities 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0 6,065.0
Total current liabilities 14,248.0 18,370.9 19,197.6 19,346.2
Long-term debt 9,556.0 7,406.0 6,406.0 5,406.0
Non-current lease liabilities -- -- -- --
Other long-term liabilities 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0 4,665.0
Total long-term liabilities 14,221.0 12,071.0 11,071.0 10,071.0
Total liabilities 28,469.0 30,441.9 30,268.6 29,417.2
Preferred shares -- -- -- --
Total common equity 22,225.0 27,139.7 34,077.9 41,942.5
Minority interest 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0 1,454.0
Total liabilities & equity 52,148.0 59,035.6 65,800.5 72,813.7
BVPS ($) 20.87 23.73 28.97 34.68
Cash Flow ($ mn) 12/20 12/21E 12/22E 12/23E
Net income 862.0 2,404.7 4,408.2 5,264.6
D&A add-back 2,322.0 3,610.0 4,810.0 5,860.0
Minority interest add-back -- -- -- --
Net (inc)/dec working capital 184.0 (1,271.1) (2,193.1) (1,728.4)
Others 2,575.0 2,510.0 2,530.0 2,600.0
Cash flow from operations 5,943.0 7,253.6 9,555.1 11,996.1
Capital expenditures (3,157.0) (5,100.0) (5,600.0) (7,500.0)
Acquisitions 110.0 -- -- --
Divestitures -- -- -- --
Others (85.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Cash flow from investing (3,132.0) (5,200.0) (5,700.0) (7,600.0)
Dividends paid -- -- -- --
Share issuance/(repurchase) 12,269.0 -- -- --
Inc/(dec) in debt (1,785.0) (2,150.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0)
Others 71.0 -- -- --
Cash flow from financing 10,307.0 (2,150.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0)
Total cash flow 13,118.0 (96.4) 2,855.1 3,396.1
Free cash flow 2,786.0 2,153.6 3,955.1 4,496.1
Free cash flow per share (basic) ($) 2.72 2.22 3.97 4.39
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Page 2 of 2