Montecarlo

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20200803200509fin4019_module_05.xlsx
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Monte Carlo

Description
The purpose of this model is to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of the profitability of selling a new type of gum, Blue Berry Exploding Delicious Gum.
The Demand distribution is as follows:
Demand Probability Distribution
100,000 20% Less than 0.20
300,000 30% Greater than or equal to 0.20 and less than 0.50
500,000 40% Greater than or equal to 0.50 and less than 0.90
1,000,000 10% Greater than or equal to 0.90
Inputs
number of gums made 130000 = produced
cost per gum $ 0.25 =unit_prod_cost
price per gum $ 1.00 =unit_price
disposal cost per gum $ 0.05 =unit_disp_cost
distribution (named range called "lookup"):
0 100,000
0.2 300,000
0.5 500,000
0.9 1,000,000
Outputs and Formulas
random number 0.8048803199 =RAND() randomnumber
amount sold 500000 =VLOOKUP(randomnumber,lookup,2)
total revenue $ 130,000 =MIN(produced,demand)*unit_price
total variable costs $ 32,500 =produced*unit_prod_cost
total disposing cost $ - 0 =unit_disp_cost*IF(produced>demand,produced-demand,0)
profit $ 97,500 =revenue-total_var_cost-total_disposing_cost
Simulation
mean ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0!
st dev ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0! ERROR:#DIV/0!
97500 100,000 300,000 500,000 1,000,000
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#DIV/0! error will go away after the simulation is complete.

Monte Carlo Solution

Description
The purpose of this model is to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of the profitability of selling a new type of gum, Blue Berry Exploding Delicious Gum.
The Demand distribution is as follows:
Demand Probability Distribution
100,000 20% Less than 0.20
300,000 30% Greater than or equal to 0.20 and less than 0.50
500,000 40% Greater than or equal to 0.50 and less than 0.90
1,000,000 10% Greater than or equal to 0.90
Inputs
number of gums made 130000 = produced
cost per gum $ 0.25 =unit_prod_cost
price per gum $ 1.00 =unit_price
disposal cost per gum $ 0.05 =unit_disp_cost
distribution (named range called "lookup"):
0 100,000
0.2 300,000
0.5 500,000
0.9 1,000,000
Outputs and Formulas
random number 0.6909652266 =RAND() randomnumber
amount sold 500000 =VLOOKUP(randomnumber,lookup,2)
total revenue $ 130,000 =MIN(produced,demand)*unit_price
total variable costs $ 32,500 =produced*unit_prod_cost
total disposing cost $ - 0 =unit_disp_cost*IF(produced>demand,produced-demand,0)
profit $ 97,500 =revenue-total_var_cost-total_disposing_cost
Simulation
mean 75,000 183,840 231,150 118,950
st dev - 0 83,405 162,173 259,586
97500 100,000 300,000 500,000 1,000,000
1 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
2 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
3 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
4 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 750,000
5 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
6 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
7 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
8 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
9 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
10 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
11 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
12 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
13 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
14 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
15 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
16 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
17 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
18 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
19 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
20 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
21 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
22 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
23 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
24 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
25 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
26 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
27 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
28 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
29 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
30 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
31 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
32 75,000 15,000 375,000 750,000
33 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
34 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
35 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
36 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
37 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
38 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
39 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
40 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
41 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
42 75,000 15,000 165,000 750,000
43 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
44 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
45 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
46 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
47 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
48 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
49 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
50 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
51 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
52 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
53 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
54 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
55 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
56 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
57 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
58 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
59 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
60 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
61 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
62 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
63 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
64 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
65 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
66 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
67 75,000 15,000 165,000 750,000
68 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
69 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
70 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
71 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
72 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
73 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
74 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
75 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
76 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
77 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
78 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
79 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
80 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
81 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
82 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
83 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
84 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
85 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
86 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
87 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
88 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
89 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
90 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
91 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
92 75,000 15,000 375,000 750,000
93 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
94 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
95 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
96 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
97 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
98 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
99 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
100 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
101 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
102 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
103 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
104 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
105 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
106 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
107 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
108 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
109 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
110 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
111 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
112 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
113 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
114 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
115 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
116 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
117 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
118 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
119 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
120 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
121 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
122 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
123 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
124 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
125 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
126 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
127 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
128 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
129 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
130 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
131 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
132 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
133 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
134 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
135 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
136 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
137 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
138 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
139 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
140 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
141 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
142 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
143 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
144 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
145 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
146 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
147 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
148 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
149 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
150 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
151 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
152 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
153 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
154 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
155 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
156 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
157 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
158 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
159 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
160 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
161 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
162 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
163 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 750,000
164 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
165 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
166 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
167 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
168 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
169 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
170 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
171 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
172 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
173 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
174 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
175 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
176 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
177 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
178 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
179 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
180 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
181 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
182 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
183 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
184 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
185 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
186 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
187 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
188 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
189 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
190 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
191 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
192 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
193 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
194 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
195 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
196 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
197 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
198 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
199 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
200 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
201 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
202 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
203 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
204 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
205 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
206 75,000 15,000 375,000 750,000
207 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
208 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
209 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
210 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
211 75,000 15,000 165,000 750,000
212 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
213 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
214 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
215 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
216 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
217 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
218 75,000 15,000 (45,000) (195,000)
219 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
220 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
221 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
222 75,000 15,000 (45,000) (195,000)
223 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
224 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
225 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
226 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
227 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
228 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
229 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
230 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
231 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
232 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 750,000
233 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 15,000
234 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
235 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
236 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
237 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
238 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
239 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
240 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
241 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
242 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
243 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
244 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
245 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
246 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
247 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
248 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
249 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
250 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
251 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
252 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
253 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
254 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
255 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
256 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 15,000
257 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
258 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 750,000
259 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
260 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
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773 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
774 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
775 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
776 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
777 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
778 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
779 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
780 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
781 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
782 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
783 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
784 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
785 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
786 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
787 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
788 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
789 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
790 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
791 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
792 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
793 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
794 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
795 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
796 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
797 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
798 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
799 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
800 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
801 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
802 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
803 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
804 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
805 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
806 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
807 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
808 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
809 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 15,000
810 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
811 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 225,000
812 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
813 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
814 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
815 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
816 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
817 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
818 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
819 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
820 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
821 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
822 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
823 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
824 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
825 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
826 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
827 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
828 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
829 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
830 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
831 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
832 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
833 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
834 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
835 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
836 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
837 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
838 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
839 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
840 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
841 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
842 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 15,000
843 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
844 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
845 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
846 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
847 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
848 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
849 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
850 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
851 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
852 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
853 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
854 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
855 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
856 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
857 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
858 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
859 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
860 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
861 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
862 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
863 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
864 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
865 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
866 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
867 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
868 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
869 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
870 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
871 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
872 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
873 75,000 15,000 (45,000) 15,000
874 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
875 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
876 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
877 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
878 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
879 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
880 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
881 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
882 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
883 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
884 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
885 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
886 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
887 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
888 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
889 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
890 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
891 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
892 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
893 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
894 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
895 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
896 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
897 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
898 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
899 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
900 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
901 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
902 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
903 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
904 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
905 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
906 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
907 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
908 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
909 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
910 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
911 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
912 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
913 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
914 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
915 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
916 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
917 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
918 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
919 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
920 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
921 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
922 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
923 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
924 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
925 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
926 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
927 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
928 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
929 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
930 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
931 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
932 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
933 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
934 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
935 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
936 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
937 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
938 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
939 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
940 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
941 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
942 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
943 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
944 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
945 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
946 75,000 15,000 165,000 (195,000)
947 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
948 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
949 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
950 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
951 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
952 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
953 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
954 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
955 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
956 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
957 75,000 225,000 375,000 750,000
958 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
959 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
960 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 750,000
961 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
962 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
963 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
964 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
965 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
966 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
967 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
968 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
969 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
970 75,000 15,000 165,000 225,000
971 75,000 15,000 165,000 750,000
972 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
973 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
974 75,000 225,000 165,000 (195,000)
975 75,000 225,000 165,000 750,000
976 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
977 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
978 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
979 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
980 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
981 75,000 225,000 (45,000) (195,000)
982 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 15,000
983 75,000 225,000 165,000 15,000
984 75,000 15,000 165,000 15,000
985 75,000 15,000 375,000 225,000
986 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
987 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
988 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
989 75,000 15,000 375,000 (195,000)
990 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
991 75,000 225,000 375,000 225,000
992 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
993 75,000 15,000 375,000 15,000
994 75,000 225,000 375,000 15,000
995 75,000 225,000 (45,000) 225,000
996 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
997 75,000 225,000 165,000 225,000
998 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
999 75,000 225,000 375,000 (195,000)
1000 75,000 15,000 165,000 750,000

MSFT

SIMULATING STOCK PRICE
mean
0.021907
Date Adj Close Returns MSFT Month Start price Scenario (1-60) Return End price
1 6/1/18 101.309998 0.029433 =D5/D6-1 1 100.85 60 -0.0781701562 92.9665397474 =(1+K5)*I5
2 5/1/18 98.413437 0.056886 2 92.9665397474 41 0.0853956965 100.9054821607
3 4/1/18 93.116394 0.024652 3 100.9054821607 39 0.1962614956 120.7093430071
4 3/1/18 90.876106 (0.022089) 4 120.7093430071 46 0.0268448369 123.9497656364 =VLOOKUP(J5,$B$5:$E$65,4)
5 2/1/18 92.928787 (0.013051) 5 123.9497656364 24 0.1076802219 137.2967039054
6 1/1/18 94.157661 0.110708 6 137.2967039054 15 0.0394776328 142.7168527623 =RANDBETWEEN(1,60)
7 12/1/17 84.772621 0.021380 7 142.7168527623 10 0.0015631549 142.939941317
8 11/1/17 82.998085 0.011902 8 142.939941317 43 -0.0223183546 139.7497570255
9 10/1/17 82.021866 0.116660 9 139.7497570255 54 0.0114943137 141.3560845729
10 9/1/17 73.452858 0.001563 10 141.3560845729 37 -0.0517087508 134.046738025
11 8/1/17 73.338219 0.028473 11 134.046738025 33 0.1893357228 159.4265740521
12 7/1/17 71.307861 0.054693 12 159.4265740521 32 0.032484734 164.6055039039
13 6/1/17 67.610054 (0.007373)
14 5/1/17 68.112213 0.020158 End Price End Return Mean Return
15 4/1/17 66.76635 0.039478 164.6055039039 0.6321814963 =(L16-$I$5)/$I$5 29.66% =AVERAGE(J20:J1019)
16 3/1/17 64.230675 0.035625 1 141.7983630487 0.4060323555
17 2/1/17 62.021183 (0.010364) 2 150.0184020625 0.4875399312 Probably lose money 11.8% =COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<0")/1000
18 1/1/17 62.670673 0.040393 3 158.9134033992 0.5757402419 Probably make more than 10% 75.3% =COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,">=0.10")/1000
19 12/1/16 60.237511 0.038164 4 181.2338337903 0.7970632999 Make between 0 and 10% in return 12.9% =(COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<=0.10")-COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<=0"))/1000
20 11/1/16 58.023098 0.005674 5 138.0822209704 0.3691841445 Lose between 0 and 10% 7.9% =(COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<=0")-COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<=-0.10"))/1000
21 10/1/16 57.695721 0.040278 6 118.7668186115 0.1776580923 Lose More than 10% 3.9% =COUNTIF($J$20:$J$1019,"<-0.10")/1000
22 9/1/16 55.461845 0.008684 7 97.3474226364 -0.0347305638
23 8/1/16 54.984337 0.013761 8 89.5476954315 -0.1120704469
24 7/1/16 54.237942 0.107680 9 114.0908444747 0.1312924588
25 6/1/16 48.965343 (0.027775) 10 107.195081991 0.0629160336
26 5/1/16 50.364227 0.062763 11 111.0520712391 0.1011608452
27 4/1/16 47.389889 (0.097049) 12 85.1105375796 -0.1560680458
28 3/1/16 52.48333 0.093289 13 158.5862580176 0.5724963611
29 2/1/16 48.004986 (0.076421) 14 89.9068304492 -0.1085093659
30 1/1/16 51.977104 (0.007030) 15 153.4016456858 0.5210872155
31 12/1/15 52.345066 0.027672 16 157.8178805842 0.5648773484
32 11/1/15 50.935589 0.032485 17 155.8956421153 0.5458169769
33 10/1/15 49.333019 0.189336 18 148.5243408702 0.4727252441
34 9/1/15 41.479473 0.023710 19 148.8427642747 0.4758826403
35 8/1/15 40.518764 (0.068094) 20 157.9138533553 0.5658289872
36 7/1/15 43.479465 0.057758 21 154.243740725 0.5294371911
37 6/1/15 41.10532 (0.051709) 22 134.1739916728 0.3304312511
38 5/1/15 43.346725 (0.036595) 23 123.7316128207 0.2268875837
39 4/1/15 44.993267 0.196261 24 130.6864028205 0.2958493091
40 3/1/15 37.611565 (0.066149) 25 113.28685678 0.1233203449
41 2/1/15 40.275764 0.085396 26 127.8077945249 0.2673058456
42 1/1/15 37.106987 (0.130247) 27 158.4550245997 0.5711950878
43 12/1/14 42.663837 (0.022318) 28 93.6152411383 -0.0717378172
44 11/1/14 43.63776 0.018318 29 142.6167248527 0.414146999
45 10/1/14 42.852802 0.012726 30 130.0396067438 0.2894358626
46 9/1/14 42.314297 0.026845 31 107.1878738196 0.0628445594
47 8/1/14 41.208073 0.052595 32 141.4814345553 0.4028897824
48 7/1/14 39.149036 0.035012 33 164.1535576346 0.6277001253
49 6/1/14 37.824715 0.025749 34 165.7127196566 0.6431603337
50 5/1/14 36.875202 0.013366 35 171.3938314046 0.6994926267
51 4/1/14 36.388817 (0.014394) 36 120.0056020281 0.1899415174
52 3/1/14 36.920242 0.077979 37 132.5303198804 0.3141330677
53 2/1/14 34.249496 0.012421 38 144.1550012841 0.4294001119
54 1/1/14 33.829311 0.011494 39 138.885873426 0.3771529343
55 12/1/13 33.444885 (0.011442) 40 92.0743236461 -0.087017118
56 11/1/13 33.832001 0.076814 41 101.3667647778 0.005124093
57 10/1/13 31.4186 0.064003 42 157.7926958401 0.5646276236
58 9/1/13 29.528688 0.003429 43 116.9160623926 0.1593065185
59 8/1/13 29.427794 0.048995 44 126.9647645739 0.2589465996
60 7/1/13 28.053324 (0.078170) 45 134.3619989033 0.3322954775
6/1/13 30.432215 46 155.8623182719 0.5454865471
47 172.7420425364 0.712861106
48 121.5189686659 0.2049476318
49 138.3747518998 0.3720847982
50 101.9431698425 0.0108395621
51 154.8503201493 0.5354518607
52 103.9700733561 0.0309377626
53 114.4902956405 0.1352533033
54 159.7124107737 0.5836629725
55 117.4231697499 0.1643348513
56 115.4165180504 0.1444374621
57 167.1307828051 0.6572214458
58 166.0741894514 0.6467445657
59 99.2297956677 -0.0160654867
60 178.1993863632 0.7669745797
61 93.9352739547 -0.0685644625
62 181.6226585054 0.8009187755
63 156.9035502169 0.5558111078
64 117.168067355 0.1618053283
65 126.8236457468 0.2575473054
66 132.2525388546 0.3113786699
67 99.0853969983 -0.0174973029
68 143.5010369811 0.4229155873
69 121.032299164 0.200121955
70 189.7386482057 0.8813946277
71 156.5595855604 0.5524004518
72 115.1310006045 0.1416063521
73 110.6075592455 0.0967531903
74 146.8310307359 0.455934861
75 99.5878341982 -0.0125152782
76 118.4512403731 0.174528908
77 130.0858108748 0.2898940097
78 142.3864917513 0.4118640729
79 109.0894113968 0.0816996668
80 120.3397900358 0.1932552309
81 135.9162475155 0.3477069659
82 113.1698798523 0.1221604348
83 109.9953879737 0.0906830736
84 112.2248966573 0.1127902495
85 120.5100101902 0.1949430857
86 87.5826523116 -0.1315552572
87 140.6195881035 0.3943439574
88 186.0948262925 0.845263523
89 99.4966019871 -0.0134199109
90 123.8087797044 0.2276527487
91 100.9434458458 0.0009265825
92 132.1449022228 0.3103113755
93 104.1981337287 0.0331991446
94 119.4735243094 0.1846655856
95 121.3149467645 0.2029246085
96 131.3028159365 0.3019614867
97 84.1639953539 -0.1654536901
98 143.8669123884 0.4265435041
99 147.0667986708 0.458272669
100 104.1796879212 0.0330162412
101 117.6452986646 0.1665374186
102 116.4210079752 0.1543976993
103 136.8974619097 0.3574364096
104 116.5747157027 0.1559218215
105 149.3500336979 0.48091258
106 113.4814321722 0.1252496993
107 136.1407055098 0.3499326278
108 156.2920721621 0.5497478648
109 125.395610182 0.2433873097
110 117.9127872947 0.16918976
111 105.7444282176 0.0485317622
112 141.085822034 0.3989670008
113 97.3936042476 -0.0342726401
114 132.222714075 0.3110829358
115 95.457596968 -0.0534695392
116 159.9016998074 0.5855399088
117 77.7748791043 -0.2288063549
118 170.6666305229 0.692281909
119 121.4879727883 0.2046402855
120 110.8024160723 0.0986853354
121 116.9268926189 0.159413908
122 138.2914152354 0.3712584555
123 136.6224662133 0.3547096303
124 71.6673387717 -0.2893669928
125 96.0142250299 -0.0479501732
126 189.6799255871 0.8808123509
127 173.4494244429 0.7198753043
128 136.7073390825 0.3555512056
129 96.3319679238 -0.0447995248
130 135.2501022109 0.341101658
131 113.6060319977 0.1264851958
132 175.8580934387 0.743758983
133 128.6776771309 0.2759313548
134 79.3475893898 -0.2132118058
135 113.5956756822 0.1263825055
136 124.325652477 0.2327779125
137 152.5137224735 0.5122828208
138 122.7653760715 0.2173066542
139 120.3189957289 0.1930490404
140 96.7730471262 -0.0404259085
141 143.5078456967 0.4229831006
142 122.0068506894 0.2097853316
143 107.9069059433 0.0699742781
144 106.2147900183 0.0531957364
145 115.9068062616 0.1492990209
146 126.4988393759 0.2543266175
147 169.6370127209 0.6820725109
148 143.551444289 0.4234154119
149 121.5879024868 0.20563116
150 144.4851119217 0.4326733954
151 134.4705522559 0.3333718617
152 90.1336968157 -0.1062598233
153 112.2025458796 0.1125686255
154 110.4324854387 0.0950172081
155 131.4929991184 0.3038472892
156 112.0813226249 0.1113666101
157 215.8164363103 1.1399745792
158 199.7248608766 0.9804150806
159 123.7177716541 0.2267503387
160 155.6060393792 0.5429453582
161 147.1576158581 0.4591731865
162 136.8678539053 0.357142825
163 155.9903769211 0.5467563403
164 140.3406744881 0.3915783291
165 135.8758330222 0.3473062273
166 104.720198091 0.0383757867
167 121.5576390774 0.2053310766
168 117.4276041414 0.1643788214
169 213.7856476494 1.1198378547
170 146.7762081647 0.455391256
171 140.6596485263 0.3947411852
172 151.5132714585 0.5023626322
173 175.9686480713 0.7448552114
174 146.3685329655 0.4513488643
175 173.4547508354 0.7199281193
176 116.3753179104 0.1539446496
177 104.3039765042 0.0342486515
178 125.6683156295 0.2460913796
179 165.6654044007 0.6426911691
180 125.7190083916 0.2465940346
181 115.5295526909 0.1455582815
182 120.8931045203 0.1987417404
183 188.923757536 0.8733144029
184 127.4612174899 0.263869286
185 113.3433847407 0.1238808601
186 127.485962266 0.2641146482
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777 184.642559439 0.8308632567
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957 123.9776491753 0.2293272105
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961 152.2320392947 0.5094897302
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996 146.1652819495 0.4493334849
997 211.3678977099 1.095864132
998 190.7489492763 0.8914124866
999 162.3828337352 0.6101421293
1000 182.4927823956 0.8095466772

As of 6/13/2018