as attached

20200629225540project_2.xlsx

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		TIME PERIOD (QUARTER)
		8/1/20	10/31/20	1/31/21	4/30/21	7/31/21	10/31/21	1/31/22	4/30/22	7/31/22	10/31/22	1/31/23	4/30/23	7/31/23
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12		Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
															Tax rate (gains)
FACEBOOK price 4/30/2020	225.09														Federal	24%	15%	15%
price (buy)	0														State	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
invest	$ 10,000														Combined tax rate
shares
50% ile	1.03														NET PRESENT WORTH CALCULATIONS
90% ile	1.16														Inflation-free interest rate	1.5%
lognormal random variable															Inflation
stock price															Market interest rate
buy & sell		$ (10,000)													Net present worth (NPW)
taxes															Facebook
NET		$ (10,000)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		Walmart
WALMART price 4/30/2020	124.06														ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY
price (buy)	0														Expected NPW
invest	$ 10,000														Facebook
shares															Walmart
mean															Standard deviation of NPW
standard deviation															Facebook
normal random variable															Walmart
stock price
projected dividends per share															Probability NPW < 0
buy & sell		$ (10,000)													Facebook
money from dividends															Walmart
taxes															Probability NPW of Facebook < NPW of Walmart
NET		(10,000)