Interconnected Risk Exercise -- Assess contagion risk in an investment portfolio Please read the following and see attachment for the excel Description: You are the same risk analyst in a wealth management company who helped one of the wealth managers w

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20191204003602interconnected_risk_calculation.xlsx

VBFO new port

Attachment A
VANDERBILT FAMILY OFFICE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO - NEW PORTFOLIO
31-Mar-19 Expected Days to Liquidate or Close Out Expected Projected
Description Quantity Price FX US$ Value Yield 1 2 5 10 30 60 180 360 Yield Volatility Liquidity VaR Stress Liquidity Metric Notes CONTAGION RISK ASSESSMENT
Fixed income
Sovereign Q, EUR, 1,000,000, 31-Dec-2028, 1.5%, 360/360 3 102.12 1.09 3,341,228 1.25% 3.3 1.25% 0.75% 1 0.30% 3% 1 day: up to USD 10mn 2 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Aa2/AA Contagion between market, credit and/or liquidity risk: Yes/No? Briefly state the rationale for your assessment
Bank R, USD, 2,000,000, senior unsecured, 31-Dec-2023, 2.0%, 180/360 3 101.19 1.00 6,071,520 1.75% 1.0 4.0 1.1 1.75% 0.35% 2 0.25% 5% 1 day: up to USD 1mn 2 days: up to USD 5mn 5 days: up to USD 10mn 10 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A2/A This bond has moderate yield and liquidity in modest amounts
Bank S, USD, 5,000,000, Coco, 31-Dec-2037, 6%, 180/360 1 0.97 1.00 4,850,000 6.25% 2.0 2.9 10 days: up to USD 2mn 30 days: up to USD 5mn Credit rating Baa3/BBB- This Coco bond has limited liquidity in modest amoounts but a very high yield
Company T, CAD, 1,500,000, 31-Dec-2021, 2.75%, 360/360 5 0.96 1.39 5,166,367 3.50% 5.2 3.50% 2.65% 5 0.65% -10% 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 15mn Credit rating Ba1/BB+ This high yield bond has reasonable liquidity in moderate amounts
US Treasury, USD, 3,000,000, 0%, 31-Dec-2038 5 0.59 1.00 8,890,200 2.65% 5.0 3.9 2.65% 0.55% 1 0.15% 2.5% 1 day: up to USD 5Mn 2 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Aaa/AA+ This bond has good liquidity in large amounts and a moderate yield
NJ State Transit Authority, USD, 1,000,000, 15-Jun-2024, 3%, 180/360 4 100.47 1.00 4,018,840 2.75% 1.0 3.0 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A3/A- This muni bond has a low yield compared to others with similar liquidity
IL State GO, USD, 1,000,000, 3-Jan-2024, 5%, 180/360 4 1.10 1.00 4,398,400 4.50% 1.0 3.4 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Baa1/A- This muni bond's yield and liquidity in moderate amounts are typical of the sector
MI Financial Authority, USD, 1,000,000, 1-Jun-2022, 5%, 180/360 4 1.08 1.00 4,304,400 4.50% 1.0 3.3 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A- This muni bond's yield and liquidity in moderate amounts are typical of the sector
Equities
Company V, common stock, Nasdaq 175,000 39.42 1.00 6,898,500 0.00% 5.0 1.9 0.00% 22% 1 4.25% -15% 1 day: up to USD 5Mn 2 days: up to USD 10mn 5 days up to USD 20 mn This stock has high growth potential and good liquidity but zero yield
Company Y, common stock, TSX 470,000 24.94 1.39 8,432,950 1.50% 1.0 1.0 6.4 1.50% 12% 2 2.50% -7.5% 1 day: up to USD 1Mn 2 days: up to USD 2mn 5 days up to USD 10 mn 10 days: up to USD 15mn This stock has moderate yield and liquidity in moderate amounts
Company X, common stock, Nikkei 175,000 6,233 120.36 9,062,604 2.50% 5.0 4.1 2.50% 34% 4 6.75% -15% 5 days: up to USD 5Mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn This stock has a good yield and moderate liquidity in modest amounts
Company W, common stock, Euronext 125,000 46.30 1.09 6,311,848 0.25% 5.0 1.3 0.25% 15% 2 3.50% -7.5% 2 days: up to USD 5mn 5 days: up to USD 10mn 10 days up to USD 20mn This stock has a low yield but moderate liquidity in large amounts
Currencies Shorts
Sell EUR, Buy USD, 1.05, 31-Dec-2019 3,000,000 1.08 1.00 (87,000) - 0.50% 2.75% 1 1.25% -5% 1 day: up to USD 20mn
Sell CAD, Buy USD, 1.35, 30-Jun-2019 5,000,000 1.38 1.00 (130,000) - 0.20% 1.75% 1 1.30% -5% 1 day: up to USD 20mn
Derivatives Shorts
Put, SPX, strike 1,800, 5-Jul-19 60 1,021.97 1.00 (61,318) - - 66% 1 8.30% 30% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, AEX, strike 395, 5-Jul-19 150 441.82 1.09 (72,277) - - 28% 1 6.95% 25% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, Nikkei 225, strike 15,000, 5-Jul-19 90 72,500.00 120.36 (54,212) - - 32% 1 5.75% 25% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, GSPTSE, strike 13,000, 5-Jul-19 125 764.54 1.39 (68,754) - 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Commercial Real Estate
Ownership of office tower located at 240 E Monroe in Chicago 0.30 30,000,000 1.00 9,000,000 4.75% 9.0 180 days: up to USD 10mn 360 days up to USD 20mn Can be sold in lots of USD 10mn This CRE investment has a moderate yield but limited liquidity and represents only one portion of the commercial real estate sector
Ownership of West Hills shopping mall in Pittsburgh 0.11 45,000,000 1.00 5,000,000 5.25% 5.0 180 days up to USD 10mn Can be bought in lots of USD 5mn This CRE investment has average yield and liquidity and represents a different portion of the commercial real estate sector
Ownership of luxury apartment building in Denver 0.07 75,000,000 1.00 5,000,000 5.85% 5.0 180 days up to USD 10mn Can be bought in lots of USD 5mn This CRE investment has better than average yield and liquidity and represents a different portion of the commercial real estate sector
Hedge Funds
Z Investment Advisors Macro Fund 5,000,000 0.95 1.00 4,750,000 3.75% 4.8 60 days: up to USD 5mn This hedge fund has typical liquidity but not a very high yield
Q Investment Advisors Value Fund 3,000,000 1.02 1.00 3,060,000 5.80% 3.1 180 days: up to USD 10mn This hedge fund has average yield and liquidity for the sector
R Investment Advisors CRE Fund 2,000,000 1.00 1.00 2,000,000 4.95% 2.0 180 days: up to USD 10 mn This hedge fund adds CRE expsoure with average yield and liquidity for the sector
Total 100,083,294 3.17% 15.3 18.8 28.7 6.1 2.9 4.8 24.1 0.0 Total ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 100.6
WAV Yield 15% diversification applied
Projected cumulative liquidity 15.3% 34.1% 62.8% 68.8% 71.7% 76.4% 100.5% 100.5%
INVESTMENTS TO CONSIDER YIELD & LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
31-Mar-16 Expected Days to Liquidate or Close Out Expected Projected
Description Quantity Price FX US$ Value Yield 1 2 5 10 30 60 180 360 Yield Volatility Liquidity VaR Stress Liquidity Metric Notes
Fixed income
Equities
Commercial Real Estate
Hedge Funds
Total 290,837,134 1.09% 42.8 54.7 90.7 28.9 39.3 75.0 253.2 361.0 Total ERROR:#VALUE! ERROR:#REF! 291,310,696
New WAVY 15% diversification applied
New projected cumulative liquidity Old WAVY 14.7% 33.5% 64.6% 74.5% 88.0% 113.8% 200.7% 324.6%
Existing projected cumulative liquidity 1.89% 17.0% 36.9% 59.7% 78.2% 86.3% 91.0% 100.0% 100.0%
- - + - - - = =
Rationale for acceptability of liquidity risk in new portfolio
The liquidity profile of the new portfolio exceeds the family's requirement for at least 30% of the portfolio to be liquid in 2 days.

VBFO new port stress SV

Attachment A
VANDERBILT FAMILY OFFICE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO - NEW PORTFOLIO - STRESS TEST Scenario: GLOBAL MARKET CORRECTION
30-Jun-19 Expected Days to Liquidate or Close Out Expected Projected
Description Quantity Price FX US$ Value Yield 1 2 5 10 30 60 180 360 Yield Volatility Liquidity VaR Stress Liquidity Metric Notes CONTAGION RISK ASSESSMENT
Fixed income
Sovereign Q, EUR, 1,000,000, 31-Dec-2028, 1.5%, 360/360 3 102.85 1.02 3,147,210 1.25% 3.1 1.25% 0.75% 1 0.30% 3% 1 day: up to USD 10mn 2 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Aa2/AA
Bank R, USD, 2,000,000, senior unsecured, 31-Dec-2023, 2.0%, 180/360 3 100.85 1.00 6,051,000 1.75% 1.0 4.0 1.1 1.75% 0.35% 2 0.25% 5% 1 day: up to USD 1mn 2 days: up to USD 5mn 5 days: up to USD 10mn 10 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A2/A
Bank S, USD, 5,000,000, Coco, 31-Dec-2037, 6%, 180/360 1 93.25 1.00 4,662,500 3.50% 4.7 3.50% 2.65% 5 0.65% -10% 10 days: up to USD 2mn 30 days: up to USD 5mn Credit rating Ba1/BB+
Company T, CAD, 1,500,000, 31-Dec-2021, 2.75%, 360/360 5 91.25 1.33 5,145,677 2.65% 5.1 2.65% 0.55% 1 0.15% 2.5% 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 15mn Credit rating Aaa/AA+
US Treasury, USD, 3,000,000, 0%, 31-Dec-2038 5 64.00 1.00 9,600,000 2.75% 2.0 7.6 1 day: up to USD 5Mn 2 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A3/A-
NJ State Transit Authority, USD, 1,000,000, 15-Jun-2024, 3%, 180/360 4 94.00 1.00 3,760,000 6.25% 2.0 2.0 (0.2) 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Baa3/BBB-
IL State GO, USD, 1,000,000, 3-Jan-2024, 5%, 180/360 4 107.00 1.00 4,280,000 4.50% 2.0 2.3 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating Baa1/A-
MI Financial Authority, USD, 1,000,000, 1-Jun-2022, 5%, 180/360 4 106.25 1.00 4,250,000 4.50% 1.0 4.3 2 days: up to USD 1mn 5 days: up to USD 5mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn 30 days: up to USD 20mn Credit rating A-
Equities
Company V, common stock, Nasdaq 175,000 31.54 1.00 5,518,800 0.00% 2.0 3.0 0.5 0.00% 22% 1 4.25% -15% 1 day: up to USD 5Mn 2 days: up to USD 10mn 5 days up to USD 20 mn
Company Y, common stock, TSX 470,000 23.69 1.33 8,372,714 1.50% 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 1.50% 12% 2 2.50% -7.5% 1 day: up to USD 1Mn 2 days: up to USD 2mn 5 days up to USD 10 mn 10 days: up to USD 15mn
Company X, common stock, Nikkei 175,000 5,610 122 8,046,701 2.50% 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.50% 34% 4 6.75% -15% 5 days: up to USD 5Mn 10 days: up to USD 10mn
Company W, common stock, Euronext 125,000 37.04 1.02 4,722,600 0.25% 3.0 1.7 0.25% 15% 2 3.50% -7.5% 2 days: up to USD 5mn 5 days: up to USD 10mn 10 days up to USD 20mn
Currencies Shorts
Sell EUR, Buy USD, 1.05, 31-Dec-2019 3,000,000 1.09 1.00 210,000 - 0.50% 2.75% 1 1.25% -5% 1 day: up to USD 20mn
Sell CAD, Buy USD, 1.35, 30-Jun-2019 5,000,000 1.33 1.00 (100,000) - 0.20% 1.75% 1 1.30% -5% 1 day: up to USD 20mn
Derivatives Shorts
Put, SPX, strike 1,800, 5-Jul-19 60 3,576.90 1.00 214,614 - - 66% 1 8.30% 30% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, AEX, strike 395, 5-Jul-19 150 1,988.19 1.02 304,193 - - 28% 1 6.95% 25% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, Nikkei 225, strike 15,000, 5-Jul-19 90 253,750.00 122 187,193 - - 32% 1 5.75% 25% 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Put, GSPTSE, strike 13,000, 5-Jul-19 125 1,987.80 1.33 186,824 - 1 day: up to USD 2mn
Commercial Real Estate
Ownership of office tower located at 240 E Monroe in Chicago 0.30 29,910,000 1.00 8,973,000 4.75% 9.0 180 days: up to USD 10mn 360 days up to USD 20mn Can be sold in lots of USD 10mn
Ownership of West Hills shopping mall in Pittsburgh 0.11 44,775,000 1.00 5,000,000 5.25% 5.0 180 days up to USD 10mn Can be bought in lots of USD 5mn
Ownership of luxury apartment building in Denver 0.66 7,575,000 1.00 5,000,000 5.85% 5.0 180 days up to USD 10mn Can be bought in lots of USD 5mn
Hedge Funds
Z Investment Advisors Macro Fund 5,000,000 1.02 1.00 5,100,000 3.75% 5.1 60 days: up to USD 5mn
Q Investment Advisors Value Fund 3,000,000 1.01 1.00 3,030,000 5.80% 3.0 180 days: up to USD 10mn
R Investment Advisors CRE Fund 2,000,000 0.98 1.00 1,960,000 4.95% 2.0 180 days: up to USD 10 mn
Total 97,623,025 3.19% 11.3 11.0 17.0 19.1 8.4 7.1 23.7 0.0 Total ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 97.6
WAV Yield 15% diversification applied
Projected cumulative liquidity 11.6% 22.8% 40.2% 59.8% 68.4% 75.7% 100.0% 100.0%
INVESTMENTS TO CONSIDER YIELD & LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
31-Mar-16 Expected Days to Liquidate or Close Out Expected Projected
Description Quantity Price FX US$ Value Yield 1 2 5 10 30 60 180 360 Yield Volatility Liquidity VaR Stress Liquidity Metric Notes
Fixed income
Equities
Commercial Real Estate
Hedge Funds
Total 283,670,865 1.10% 30.8 31.2 55.2 68.0 55.9 82.1 252.2 361.0 Total ERROR:#VALUE! ERROR:#REF! 282,668,042
New WAVY 15% diversification applied
New projected cumulative liquidity Old WAVY 10.9% 22.0% 41.5% 65.5% 85.3% 114.4% 203.6% 331.3%
Existing projected cumulative liquidity 1.89% 17.0% 36.9% 59.7% 78.2% 86.3% 91.0% 100.0% 100.0%
- - + - - - = =
Rationale for acceptability of liquidity risk in new portfolio
The liquidity profile of the new portfolio exceeds the family's requirement for at least 30% of the portfolio to be liquid in 2 days.