Hi, I'm writing a paper on the culture of Saudi Arabia with a focus on the woman rights there.

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Saudi Arabia's shifting sands Author(s): Tom Phillips Source: The World Today, Vol. 70, No. 1 (February & March 2014), pp. 34-35 Published by: Royal Institute of International Affairs Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24640747 Accessed: 09-10-2019 06:11 UTC

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Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's

shifting sands The certainties that

underpin the Kingdom need reappraisal, Tom Phillips argues

What has got into the Saudis? Their unprecedented decision in October not to take up their Security Council seat, and their angst over Western policy towards Syria and what some in Riyadh perceive as a mating dance between Washington and Tehran, have sent a strong signal of unease.

Those worrying about what's going on in the Kingdom also raise concerns on the succession front; about the implications of the changing shape of world energy markets at a time when Saudi Arabia is

generally estimated to need an oil price of at least $85 a barrel to sustain its social and economic programmes and to support its allies in the region; and whether a frequently creaky government system has the capacity to cope with the host of problems the country is facing from within and without.

Certainly, from the point of view of a Saudi policy-maker, the country, the region and the world look to be increas ingly complex places.

On the internal front, Saudi Arabia faces

many of the pressures which prompted Arab Spring uprisings in other parts of the Middle East, with about half of the popula tion under 25 and a high rate of youth un employment, despite a determined 'Sau dization' policy to encourage employers to hire local staff rather than expatriates.

In the region, the Saudis used to be able to rely on several factors that maintained stability: Egypt as a reliable partner for 'moderation'; Iran's bad behaviour ensur ing Saudi Arabia remained an indispensa ble Western ally; and a Western - above all American - assessment that it had a stake

in their region, even if on occasions it was a role that they got badly wrong, as in Iraq in 2003.

The Saudi world view should not be

over-simplified, however. As Arab uprisings unfurled in Tunisia,

Libya and Egypt, I was struck during dis cussions with senior Saudis by their recog nition that what we were seeing represent ed complex events with many causes and consequences, much like the French or Russian revolutions. Saudi policy-makers warned from the start of the danger that the winners of the Arab Spring would not be the liberal youth in Tahrir Square and elsewhere, but the deeper, darker, better organized forces in such societies.

Their domestic response has included social and economic moves easily inter preted as attempts to buy off pressure for political change. But Saudi decision

34 | THE WORLD TODAY | FEBRUARY & MARCH 2014

makers also feel that the West has yet to understand the intricacies of Saudi society, and that reform will take time.

Some traditional critics of the A1 Saud

inside Saudi Arabia are indeed looking around their region and asking whether the ruling family has not got it right with its cautious steps forward — including the appointment of women to the Shura consultative council, and allowing women to vote and stand in next year's municipal elections. After all, ballot-box democracy elsewhere in the region has not proved the answer to every problem, and would almost certainly mean a resurgence of conservative and tribal forces in Saudi Arabia itself.

Even before the first signs of unrest there was a palpable sense of insecurity among Saudis. The 'Shia Crescent' stretching from Iran to Hizbollah, via Iraq and Syria, was seen to be extending into new areas, with the Iranians accused of stirring up trouble in Bahrain, Yemen and elsewhere, including Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

There is much deep history here. But we would be wrong to ignore the extent to which the Saudis are feeling encircled and

Saudi Arabia's

shifting sands

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Ali alfahal

threatened, as well as their concerns about whether the West, still under the shadow of military adventures in Iraq and Afghan istan, is as firmly committed as it was to resist that threat.

They worry that Western (France apart) eagerness to strike a deal with Iran and avoid another unpopular military interven tion will result in an agreement that gives the Iranians more weight in the region — and more scope for trouble-making. There is indeed an underlying sense of insecurity in some Saudi minds about whether the

West might even, as in the days of the Shah, see Iran as a more natural longer term partner, given the latter's burgeoning middle class and electoral habit. The Saudi

voices I hear do not think that what they see as the current lack of American resolve

is merely a short-term feature of the Oba ma Presidency: they spot a deeper trend of Western disengagement from their region, and ask: 'Where does this leave us?'

When they try to answer that question, they know that part of the answer has to be more self-reliance, and greater coordina tion among the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council on defence.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in discussions with John Kerry, the US Secretary of State

They also know that, as regards the GCC, this will remain work in progress, at least in the short-term, given the fault-lines be tween member states.

So, is it time for some fresh thinking by Saudi Arabia?

Internally, many would argue that, while there is no sign of immediate threat to the Kingdom's stability and the A1 Saud's rule, the government nevertheless needs to move forward more boldly on the King's reform programme. IfWestern-style de mocracy is not the answer, the Saudis need to come up with a clearer vision about how their own system of consultation and con sensus-seeking might evolve to meet the aspirations of a youthful, globally-aware population, and to articulate the extent to which elections will play a part in this.

More needs to be done to modernize the

education system and to create a culture in which young Saudis prefer to work in the private sector. The public sector needs re form and energizing. Thought needs to be given to the shape of the current social con

tract, and to achieving greater transpar ency. An element of direct personal taxa tion would generate a political culture in which citizens, rather than subjects, feel they have a right to a certain level of ser vice. The level of subsidies for domestic oil is unsustainable. Consideration also needs

to be given to how the balance between the political and religious establishments should evolve so young Saudis do not feel obliged to head to Dubai or Bahrain when they want to relax.

Externally, it is difficult to avoid the im pression that Saudi policy is more re-active than pro-active, however understandable their worries about Iran and their hesita

tions about President Rouhani and his grip over the regime's hardliners. Just over 10 years ago, then Crown Prince Abdullah was the source of what became the Arab Peace Initiative that set out a vision of how

the people of Israel could expect normal relations with the countries of the region if they were ready to make the tough com promises necessary for peace.

Is it not now time for the Saudis to take

the lead in setting out a positive vision of how the wider region might look if could resolve its current problems, and above all if Iran were to drop its military nuclear am bitions and play a responsible part in the maintenance of regional security? This would not mean the Kingdom dropping its guard — only taking the lead in defining a vision for a positive and peaceful future.

The Saudis also need to start talking to their neighbours about sustainable development, including climate change, environmental degradation and resource shortages, particularly water. The impact of such factors is well known. In Syria, for example, some assess that a climate change-induced drought from 2006-10 prompted hundreds of thousands of Syrian farmers to flee to the cities and towns, add ing to the pressures behind the disturbanc es there. The Saudis are well placed to take the lead in focusing the world's attention on the need for action.

One intriguing feature of current Saudi society is the sense that the debate on all these issues is at last underway, in a more open manner than ever before. It is impor tant for the Kingdom and the region that it comes up with the right answers.

Sir Tom Phillips, British Ambassador to Saudi Arabia 2010-12, is an Associate Fellow at the Chatham House Middle

East and North Africa Programme

THE WORLD TODAY | FEBRUARY & MARCH 2014 | 35

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in discussions with John Kerry, the US Secretary of State

Sir Tom Phillips,

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  • Contents
    • p. 34
    • p. 35
  • Issue Table of Contents
    • The World Today, Vol. 70, No. 1 (February & March 2014) pp. 1-50
      • Front Matter
      • From the editor [pp. 3-3]
      • Contributors [pp. 4-4]
      • Notebook
        • Creative righting of wrongs [pp. 5-5]
      • The world in brief [pp. 6-9]
      • Letters
        • Transparency in the Holy See [pp. 8-8]
      • Paying by visa [pp. 10-10]
      • The rage for change [pp. 11-11]
      • Africa resources
        • An extra strong MINT [pp. 12-18]
        • The big country [pp. 18-19]
        • Accounting for net losses [pp. 20-22]
        • Mangos are the future [pp. 22-24]
        • A relative advantage [pp. 25-25]
      • Interview
        • José Manuel Ramos-Horta [pp. 26-28]
      • Date with history
        • Politics and a French affair [pp. 29-29]
      • UK foreign policy
        • Vote that ties Britain's hands [pp. 30-33]
      • Saudi Arabia
        • Saudi Arabia's shifting sands [pp. 34-35]
      • Syria
        • The Syrian people have lost their voice [pp. 36-39]
        • 'A helicopter came and dumped a barrel of TNT on to a building' [pp. 40-41]
      • Postcard from...
        • The good life in Kleitoria [pp. 42-42]
      • Review
        • Misinforming the masses [pp. 44-45]
        • Strategic rethinking [pp. 46-47]
        • Reading List: Mexico [pp. 47-47]
        • Wild cat strikes [pp. 48-49]
      • 10 minutes with
        • Anas Aremeyaw Anas [pp. 50-50]
      • Back Matter