Please write 6-7 pages paper, double spaced, 12-point Times New Roman with 1-inch margins. It should address ONE of the following prompts, using only lecture notes and Fromkin (Fromkin, David. Europe’s Last Summer: who started the Great War in 1914? Vint

Notes 4: April 9

I. Information Signaling and Misperception:

A. In anarchy, high value information is costly to send and costly to receive because of

1. Bluffing (strategic misrepresentation of preferences for outcomes; like world peace)

2. Translation (of preferences)

3. Lack of enforceability (of threats and bribes)

4. Thus, talk is cheap and behavior is real/ high value

a. Example: positioning of fleets (US near N. Korea, Iran, and Russia)

B. Credible commitment

1. Believable

2. Because costly

3. Signal

4. Costly to make because of risk (exposure to retaliation); increase of conflict potential.

a. US ground force in Korea, Europe

b. Positioning of troops creates a hostage and a tripwire

C. Deterrence- credible threats and bribes aimed at changing adversaries’ behavior

(compelling) or maintaining status quo

1. Balance of power is automatic (passive) deterrence

2. Active deterrence – deterrence that cannot occur without costly action

a. Mobilization of military forces

b. High alert (ex: Nuclear War Alert)

c. Arms expenditure increases ( e: contemporary Middle East – more than 100%

increases by Iran, Saudi Arabia and allies; Israel since 2008

II. Misrepresentation and the war choice

A. War by error

1. Irrational beliefs (rare)

2. Misperception – false beliefs concerning cause and effect

3. Incomplete information (preferences for war and peace of adversaries)

III. Misperception – the short war illusion (problematic)

A. War planners falsely believe that war could be short and decisive (1914)

B. Thus, governments falsely chose war when this would inevitably lead to a long war of

attrition. Had this been accurate knowledge, war might not have occurred

C. The problem – war planners from 1890-1914 knew that industrial weapons would cause

mass causalities and could lead to attrition warfare if mass militaries of major powers ( 2

million +/- ) could not achieve quick decisive results. Thus, they rationally chose war

plans accordingly

1. First preference strategy decisive offensive

2. Second preference strategy rational attrition

D. They chose these plans for the following reasons

1. Offensive necessity, extreme defensive advantage

2. Maximum mobilization, but minimum mobility

E. The offensive was necessary for domestic political, economic, and military morale

reasons and the need to seize the initiative.

F. The Russo-Japanese War, the Boer War, as well as the US Civil War had demonstrated

the tactical killing power of rapid fire rifles and artillery and machine guns

G. Mobilization- railroads and mass conscription guaranteed mass militaries limited only by

demography and domestic politics

H. Minimum mobility- but, constrained to foot and horse powers; armies must attack or lose

initiative for good.