Please write 6-7 pages paper, double spaced, 12-point Times New Roman with 1-inch margins. It should address ONE of the following prompts, using only lecture notes and Fromkin (Fromkin, David. Europe’s Last Summer: who started the Great War in 1914? Vint

Lecture 2: April 4

I. The Significance of the WWI case (1914-1918)

A.

World Historical War*

1. Globalization

2. Totalization – civilian targeting on a massive scale

a. The Blockade of Germany

B. Path-dependent war (path dependence – present choices, like the war choice in 1914,

shaped and constrained future possibilities

1. Explaining WWII and the Cold

C. Lease- likely war – The puzzle – war in 1914 seems lease likely outcome of crisis politics

given the logic of structural and institutional explanation of war.

1. War choice only if benefits > (greater than) costs.

a. This is the rational war choice (rational war choice = RWC)

2. Yet the structure of politics would seem to preclude war given:

a. Stable balance of power; 5 =5

3. And given institutional mechanisms to resolve crises

*Illustration of destructiveness – Battle of Verdun in WWI = 606,000 dead

*Arms buildup since 2008 (to 2018) of 100% or more by major powers in a single region (system)

A. Middle East

B. Eastern Europe

C. Northeastern Asia

**Common factors – enhanced conflict and instability

A. Middle East – Rise of Iran; Saudi- Israeli Alliance

B. Eastern Europe—Russia intervention in Crimea, Georgia, and Ukraine

C. Asia—Rise of China

*** A. Explanations- structure of domestic factors

II. Concepts

A. System: A geographic region characterized by long-term patterns of conflict and

cooperation.

B. Anarchy: the absence of a single center of binding decisions in a system.

C. Structure: number of units per system fractured by capabilities (typically, population and

economic resources).

D. This divides systems into major and minor powers (major power = top power rankings

with +6) with capacity to initiate systemic war (powers are states).

E. The War Choice: The choice of a state to initiate war:

1. Prerequisites (necessary condition: centralized decision maker like a king, president,

party or parliament)

2. War must be CHOSEN, and the choice will tend to be rational in the sense that

benefits exceed costs (expected utilities or B>C).

F. Adversaries (enemies and allies—allies may become adversaries or conversely, but

alliance depend on the benefits of exceeding costs.

G. Power resources: Create power in anarchy.

III. Concepts

A. Balance of Power: the balance of power resources among adversaries

Example = military strength

B. If a system is in balance, there is no rational/incentive for war (example : 5=5)

C. Imbalances of power can generate war given the logic of rising and declining powers.

The kind of state can choose war to pre-empt decline or prevent (preempt the rising

powers).

D. In a balance, peace is self-enforcing (automatic).