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Introduction
| Financial Statement Analysis & Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman (2012) |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| Introduction |
| This roadmap leads you through the steps to create a valuation tool. With this tool you will be able to reformulate financial statements in a spreadsheet program, analyze the financial statements using the techniques in the book, forecast pro forma financial statements, and value firms from those pro forma financial statements. In the end you will have a valuable tool to carry with you into your professional life and to use for your own personal investing. |
| Use the tool for: |
| Reformulating financial statements (as in Chapters 8-11) |
| Analyzing financial statements (as in Chapters 12-13) |
| Forecasting and valuation (as in Chapters 14-16) |
| Reverse Engineering (Chapter 7, 19) |
| You will find that building your own analysis product is very satisfying. It will help you grasp the concepts behind the analysis, for the concepts come to life as you make them work for you in practice. And you will discover the points where your understanding is weak. Off-the-shelf spreadsheet programs that you can use at the press of a button are available but pressing buttons is dangerous if you are not sure about what is going on inside the program. Better to develop your own model, following sound principles, and so be assured of the integrity of the product. |
| Once you have followed the roadmap here, think of adding your own bells and whistles. You can customize the tool for particular industries. You can add a quality of earnings analysis (as in Chapter 17). You can utilize spreadsheets features for scenario planning and risk analysis (as in Chapter 18). And you can add a credit analysis (as in Chapter 19). |
| Please note that the numbers presented in this spreadshhet might not be exactly same as those on the textbook mainly because of rounding difference. |
The Roadmap
| Financial Statement Analysis & Security Valuation Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman 2012 |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| The roadmap: steps for building the product |
| Chapter 8 gives the form of the financial statements you should work with and the accounting relations that tie the various parts of the statements together. So read this chapter before beginning. |
| Start with reformulation of the financial statements within a spreadsheet, following the design in the book. Then carry out the financial statement analysis to identify the relevant drivers for forecasting. Next forecast future financial statements and develop a valuation from the forecasts. |
| Work with the textbook beside you. The most relevant part of the text is Chapter 7 to Chapter 16, where financial statement analysis and valuation are covered in detail. Nike Inc. serves as an example of the application techniques described in the chapters. This case utilizes Nike's financials for 2000-2010. |
| The steps: |
| 1. Download financial statements |
| 2. Reformulate financial statements |
| Statements of shareholders' equity |
| Income statements |
| Balance sheets |
| Statements of cash flows |
| 3. Financial statement analysis |
| Ratios based on reformulated financial statements |
| Analysis of profitability |
| Analysis of growth |
| Common size and trend analysis |
1. Downloading Statements
| Financial Statement Analysis & Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman 2012 |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| Step 1: Download Financial Statements |
| The US Securities and Exchange Commission's Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis and Retrieval (SEC EDGAR) system provides electronic access to companies' financial reports. Access a company through EDGAR at http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html Several more intelligent interfaces to the EDGAR database have been developed, which enable the downloading of the individual financial statements directly to a spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel. Three of these are: |
| 1. EDGARscan developed by PricewaterhouseCoopers at http://edgarscan.pwcglobal.com; |
| 2. 10k Wizard at http://www.10kwizard.com; |
| 3. Edgar Online at http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html |
| These sites require subscriptions, however. |
| All these websites allow searches for companies using either company name or its ticker. You can then select the reports you need. Most of the time, you need the annual 10K reports that contain annual financial statements. You can find the financial statements within the annual 10K reports and will see instructions on how to extract them into Excel files. As each annual report contains financial statements for the year and one or two years before, you will need to go back to another annual reports of the company to get financial statements for a longer period. Individual spreadsheet files can then be merged into the format you like. |
2. Reformulation
| Financial Statement Analysis & Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman 2012 |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| Step 2: Reformulation |
| Analysis begins with the reformulation of financial statements. Reformulation readies the statements for analysis within a spreadsheet. The aim is to: |
| Separate operating and financing items in the statements |
| Bring additional information into the statements from footnotes and elsewhere. The financial statements aggregate a lot of information (particularly the income statements). Break down the aggregation to give more detail. |
| Allocate taxes in the income statement to operating and financing activities |
| Distinguish different components of income such as core operating income from sales, other core operating income, and unusual items |
| Before beginning, make sure you understand the reformulation template in Chapter 8 of the book. Chapters 8-11 cover the rules and principles for reformulation. |
| Spreadsheet programs like Excel allows you to use either the simple copy-and-paste method or the formula method to manipulate the financial statements when doing the reformulation. |
| In the next section, the reformulated statements of shareholders' equity, balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements for Nike Inc. for 2000-2010 are given next to the original statements. Note the following points on the reformulation: |
| (a) Unearned stock compensation that arose from issuing shares to employees in fiscal year 2004 is an operating asset, so is moved from the statement of shareholders' equity to the balance sheet. This is like prepaid wages and is amortized to the income statement over a service period. |
| (b) Cash and cash equivalents in the balance sheets are split between a portion for operating needs and investment of excess cash in financial assets |
| (c) Some additional expense items have been added to the income statements from the footnotes. |
| (d) Core and unusual operating items have been distinguished in the income statements. |
| (e) The tax allocation in the income statements involves not only allocating taxes between operating and financing activities but also between core operating income and the restructuring charges. Note that foreign currency translation gains and losses are already after tax. |
3. Summary of steps
| Financial Statement Analysis & Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman 2012 |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| Summary of reformulation steps |
| 1. Statement of Shareholders' Equity |
| 1) Restate beginning and ending balances for items incorrectly included in or excluded from common equity |
| -Preferred stock (take out from SE and include in "financial liabilities" in B/S). |
| +Dividends payable (take out from "accrued liabilities" in B/S and include in SE) |
| - Noncontrolling interest |
| 2) Calculate net transactions with shareholders |
| = Cash dividends +share repurchases - share issues |
| (Cash dividends = dividends declared - change in dividends payable) |
| 3) Calculate comprehensive income |
| = Net income +"other comprehensive income" |
| -Earnings from accounting changes |
| -Preferred dividends |
| -Hidden dirty-surplus losses |
| 2. Balance Sheet |
| 1) Classify GAAP assets and liabilities accounts into 4 categories: OA, FA, OL, FL |
| 2) Regroup accounts under NOA (OA, OL) and NFA (FA, FL) |
| 3) Refer to comments in the NIKE example to make adjustments for specific accounts |
Statement of SE (Ch.9)
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | ||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | ||||||||||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | ||||||||||||||||
| Step 2: Reformulation | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.1. Reformulation of the Statement of Shareholders' Equity | ||||||||||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA). STATEMENT OF SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY | ||||||||||||||||
| (in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||
| COMMON STOCK | CAPITAL IN EXCESS OF STATED VALUE | UNEARNED STOCK COMPENSATION Author: Contra-equity account, which should be instead accounted for as an asset, as a kind of prepaid compensation expense. | ACCUMULATED OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME | RETAINED EARNINGS | TOTAL | |||||||||||
| CLASS A | CLASS B | CLASS C | Adjustments to equity: A check Author: Three adjustments to beginning and ending balance of shareholders' equity. 1) Dividends payable - take out from other liabilities, and add to the shareholders' equity 2) Stock compensation (before 2006, "unearned compensation"; after 2006, "stock compensation expense", but adjust this only to the end of 2008 balance due to complications from accounting rule change) - take out (or make opposite adjustment) from shareholders' equity. In pre-2006, include it in "prepaid expense" (opposite sign from the original amount). For post-2006, include in other liabilities (same sign as the original amount) 3) Preferred stock - take out from shareholders' equity and add to financial liabilities |
|||||||||||||
| in millions | SHARES | AMOUNT | SHARES | AMOUNT | SHARES | AMOUNT | Dividends payable Author: Take out from Accrued Liabilities, because it is not truly a liability in the stockholders' perspective. Instead, add this amount to the balances of shareholders' equity. This amount should come from Accrued Liabilities notes. This information is not always available, in which case, safe to assume that the amount is immaterial | Stock compensation Author: Deduct from shareholders' equity because this is an asset (prepaid expense) for shareholders. | Adjusted equity balance | |||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2009 | 156,487.0 | 52.0 | 47,500.0 | 15.0 | -0 | -0 | 197,291.0 | (14.0) | 464.0 | 202,188.0 | 399,996.0 | Balance at December 31, 2009 | 399,996.0 | 0 | 14.0 | 400,010.0 |
| Stock options exercised | 1,598.0 | 1.0 | 6,104.0 | 6,105.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | |||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 6,105.0 | |||||||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 20,811.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (38.0) | 19,653.0 | 14.0 | (644.0) | 19,023.0 | Common dividends | -0 | 26,916.0 | ||||||||
| Amortization of unearned compensation | -0 | Comprehensive income | ||||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 265.0 | 1,788.0 | 1,788.0 | Net income reported | 68,477.0 | |||||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | 1,577.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 68,477.0 | 68,477.0 | Loss on option exercise | -0 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | 1,577.0 | 1,577.0 | Tax benefit | -0 | -0 | 70,054.0 | ||||||||||
| Adjustment for fair value of hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | 1,577.0 | 68,477.0 | 70,054.0 | |||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2010 | 158,312.0 | 53.0 | 47,500.0 | 15.0 | -0 | -0 | 224,836.0 | -0 | 2,041.0 | 270,021.0 | 496,966.0 | Balance at December 31, 2010 | 496,966.0 | 0 | -0 | 496,966.0 |
| Stock options exercised | 1,126.0 | 12,853.0 | 12,853.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | ||||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | 2,500.0 | 1.0 | (2,500.0) | (1.0) | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 12,853.0 | |||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 29,707.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (23.0) | 28,442.0 | (776.0) | 27,666.0 | Common dividends | -0 | 42,560.0 | |||||||||
| Amortization of unearned compensation | -0 | Comprehensive income | ||||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 69.0 | 2,041.0 | 2,041.0 | Net income reported | 96,919.0 | |||||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | (13.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 96,919.0 | 96,919.0 | Loss on option exercise | -0 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | (13.0) | (13.0) | Tax benefit | -0 | -0 | 96,906.0 | ||||||||||
| Adjustment for fair value of hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | (13.0) | 96,919.0 | 96,906.0 | |||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2011 | 161,984.0 | 54.0 | 45,000.0 | 14.0 | 268,172.0 | -0 | 2,028.0 | 366,164.0 | 636,432.0 | Balance at December 31, 2011 | 636,432.0 | 0 | -0 | 636,432.0 | ||
| Stock options exercised | 2,436.0 | 2.0 | 12,370.0 | 12,372.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | |||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | 2,400.0 | (2,400.0) | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 12,372.0 | |||||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 39,000.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (76.0) | (1,761.0) | (1,761.0) | Common dividends | -0 | 51,372.0 | ||||||||||
| Stock-based compensation | 37,515.0 | 37,515.0 | Comprehensive income | |||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 178.0 | 3,246.0 | 3,246.0 | Net income reported | 128,778.0 | |||||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | 423.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | (83.0) | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 128,778.0 | 128,778.0 | Loss on option exercise | -0 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | 423.0 | 423.0 | Tax benefit | -0 | -0 | 129,118.0 | ||||||||||
| Adjustment for fair value of hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Reclassification to net income of previously deferred gains related to hedge derivatives | (83.0) | (83.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | 340.0 | 128,778.0 | 129,118.0 | |||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2012 | 166,922.0 | 56.0 | 42,600.0 | 14.0 | 321,303.0 | -0 | 2,368.0 | 493,181.0 | 816,922.0 | Balance at December 31, 2012 | 816,922.0 | 0 | -0 | 816,922.0 | ||
| Stock options exercised | 1,822.0 | 12,159.0 | 12,159.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | ||||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | 2,600.0 | 1.0 | (2,600.0) | (1.0) | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 40,886.4 | |||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 1,770.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (47.0) | (1,669.0) | (1,669.0) | Common dividends | -0 | 42,656.4 | ||||||||||
| Stock-based compensation | 60,347.0 | 60,347.0 | Comprehensive income | |||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 332.0 | 3,439.0 | 3,439.0 | Net income reported | 162,330.0 | |||||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | (897.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | 723.0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 162,330.0 | 162,330.0 | Adjustment for Accounting Changes | -0 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | (897.0) | (897.0) | Loss on option exercise | (45,890.4) | ||||||||||||
| Adjustment for fair value of hedge derivatives | -0 | Tax benefit | 17,163.0 | |||||||||||||
| Reclassification to net income of previously deferred gains related to hedge derivatives | 723.0 | 723.0 | Loss on option exercise (after-tax) | (28,727.4) | ||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | (174.0) | 162,330.0 | 162,156.0 | stock-based compensation | 60,347.0 | 31,619.6 | 193,775.6 | |||
| Adoption of FAS 158 | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2013 | 171,629.0 | 57.0 | 40,000.0 | 13.0 | 211,629.0 | 70.0 | 397,248.0 | -0 | 2,194.0 | 653,842.0 | 1,053,354.0 | Balance at December 31, 2013 | 1,053,354.0 | 0 | -0 | 1,053,354.0 |
| Stock options exercised | 1,454.0 | 1.0 | 1,454.0 | 1.0 | 11,257.0 | 11,259.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | |||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | 3,400.0 | 1.0 | (3,400.0) | (1.0) | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 69,564.6 | |||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 6,870.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (95.0) | (95.0) | (5,197.0) | (5,197.0) | Common dividends | -0 | 76,434.6 | |||||||||
| Stock-based compensation | 87,777.0 | 87,777.0 | Comprehensive income | |||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 908.0 | 908.0 | 12,067.0 | 12,067.0 | Net income reported | 208,042.0 | ||||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | (17,002.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 208,042.0 | 208,042.0 | Adjustment for Accounting Changes | -0 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | (16,743.0) | (16,743.0) | Loss on option exercise | (95,270.6) | ||||||||||||
| Realized foreign currency translation gain due to divestiture | (259.0) | (259.0) | Tax benefit | 36,965.0 | ||||||||||||
| Net loss on cash flow hedges | -0 | Loss on option exercise (after-tax) | (58,305.6) | |||||||||||||
| Net loss on net investment hedges | -0 | stock-based compensation | 87,777.0 | 29,471.4 | 220,511.4 | |||||||||||
| Reclassification to net income of previously deferred gains related to hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | (17,002.0) | 208,042.0 | 191,040.0 | |||||
| Adoption of FIN 48 | ||||||||||||||||
| Adoption of EITF 06-2 Sabbaticals | ||||||||||||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2014 | 177,296.0 | 59.0 | 36,600.0 | 12.0 | 213,896.0 | 71.0 | 508,349.0 | -0 | (14,808.0) | 856,687.0 | 1,350,300.0 | Balance at December 31, 2014 | 1,350,300.0 | 0 | -0 | 1,350,300.0 |
| Stock options exercised | 360.0 | 360.0 | 2,852.0 | 2,852.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | |||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B Common Stock | 2,150.0 | 1.0 | (2,150.0) | (1.0) | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 77,136.6 | |||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 6,409.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | -0 | Stock repurchases | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (172.0) | (172.0) | (12,727.0) | (12,727.0) | Common dividends | -0 | 83,545.6 | |||||||||
| Stock-based compensation | 106,293.0 | 106,293.0 | Comprehensive income | |||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 1,996.0 | 1.0 | 1,996.0 | 1.0 | 19,134.0 | 19,136.0 | Net income reported | 232,573.0 | ||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | (31,816.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | 1,611.0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 232,573.0 | 232,573.0 | Loss on option exercise | (120,201.6) | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | (31,816.0) | (31,816.0) | Tax benefit | 45,917.0 | ||||||||||||
| Net loss on cash flow hedges | 1,611.0 | 1,611.0 | Loss on option exercise (after-tax) | (74,284.6) | ||||||||||||
| Net loss on net investment hedges | -0 | stock-based compensation | 106,293.0 | 32,008.4 | 234,376.4 | |||||||||||
| Reclassification to net income of previously deferred gains related to hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | (30,205.0) | 232,573.0 | 202,368.0 | |||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2015 | 181,630.0 | 61.0 | 34,450.0 | 11.0 | 216,080.0 | 72.0 | 636,628.0 | -0 | (45,013.0) | 1,076,533.0 | 1,668,222.0 | Balance at December 31, 2015 | 1,668,222.0 | 0 | -0 | 1,668,222.0 |
| Stock options exercised | 792.0 | 971.0 | 6,203.0 | 6,203.0 | Transactions with Shareholders | |||||||||||
| Conversion to Class B & Common Stock | -0 | Stock issues for stock options | 81,160.6 | |||||||||||||
| Repurchase of Class B & Common | -0 | Stock issued to employee | 18,621.0 | |||||||||||||
| Dividends on Common Stock | 1,547.0 | 56,073.0 | (59,000.0) | (2,927.0) | Stock repurchases | -0 | ||||||||||
| Issuance of shares to employees | (199.0) | (276.0) | (15,098.0) | (15,098.0) | Common dividends | (2,927.0) | 96,854.6 | |||||||||
| Stock-based compensation | 90,932.0 | 90,932.0 | Comprehensive income | |||||||||||||
| Forfeiture of shares from employees | 1,592.0 | 1,852.0 | 1.0 | 33,718.0 | 33,719.0 | Net income reported | 256,979.0 | |||||||||
| -0 | Net translation gain (loss) | (16,214.0) | ||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income: | -0 | Net hedging gain (loss) | 9,084.0 | |||||||||||||
| Net income | 256,979.0 | 256,979.0 | Loss on option exercise | (119,740.6) | ||||||||||||
| Foreign currency translation | (16,214.0) | (16,214.0) | Tax benefit | 44,783.0 | ||||||||||||
| Net loss on cash flow hedges | 9,084.0 | 9,084.0 | Loss on option exercise (after-tax) | (74,957.6) | ||||||||||||
| Net loss on net investment hedges | -0 | stock-based compensation | 90,932.0 | 15,974.4 | 265,823.4 | |||||||||||
| Reclassification to net income of previously deferred gains related to hedge derivatives | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Reclassification of ineffective hedge gains to net income | -0 | |||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive Income | (7,130.0) | 256,979.0 | 249,849.0 | |||||||||||||
| BALANCE AT DECEMBER 31, 2016 | 183,815.0 | 61.0 | 34,450.0 | 11.0 | 220,174.0 | 73.0 | 823,554.0 | -0 | (52,143.0) | 1,259,414.0 | 2,030,900.0 | Balance at December 31, 2016 | 2,030,900.0 | 0 | -0 | 2,030,900.0 |
| Note: | ||||||||||||||||
| Marginal tax rates derived based on the income tax footnotes to the income statements are: | ||||||||||||||||
| Fiscal year | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |||||||||
| Marginal tax rate (from 10k footnote) | 37.40% | 38.20% | 38.8% | 37.4% | 37.1% | 39.1% | 36.2% | |||||||||
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Balance Sheet (Ch. 10)
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | ||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | ||||||||||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | ||||||||||||||||
| Step 2: Reformulation | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.2. Reformulation of Balance Sheets | ||||||||||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA). BALANCE SHEET | Under Armour (UAA). REFORMULATED BALANCE SHEETS | |||||||||||||||
| (in thousands) | (in thousands) | |||||||||||||||
| CLASSIFICATION | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | ||
| ASSETS | Net operating assets (NOA): | |||||||||||||||
| Current Assets: | Operating assets | |||||||||||||||
| Cash and equivalents | OA & FA | $250,470 | $129,852 | $593,175 | $347,489 | $341,841 | $175,384 | $203,870 | Cash and equivalents Author: Operating cash is estimated at 0.5% of sales. | $24,127 | $19,817 | $15,422 | $11,660 | $9,175 | $7,363 | $5,320 |
| Short-term investments | FA | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | Accounts receivable, less allowance for doubtful accounts | $622,685 | $433,638 | $332,333 | $248,329 | $198,575 | $150,227 | $117,299 |
| Accounts receivable, net | OA | 622,685 | 433,638 | 332,333 | 248,329 | 198,575 | 150,227 | 117,299 | Inventories | $917,491 | $783,031 | $536,714 | $469,006 | $319,286 | $324,409 | $215,355 |
| Inventories | OA | 917,491 | 783,031 | 536,714 | 469,006 | 319,286 | 324,409 | 215,355 | Prepaid expenses and other current assets Author: Unearned compensation was deducted from shareholders' equity, and was included in prepaid expenses, because this is actually an asset for shareholders | $174,507 | $152,242 | $87,177 | $63,987 | $43,896 | $39,643 | $19,326 |
| Deferred income taxes | OA | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | Property, plant and equipment, net | $804,211 | $538,531 | $305,564 | $223,952 | $180,850 | $159,135 | $76,127 |
| Income taxes receivable | OA | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | Goodwill | $563,591 | $585,181 | $123,256 | $122,244 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Prepaid expenses and other current assets | OA | 174,507 | 152,242 | 87,177 | 63,987 | 43,896 | 39,643 | 19,326 | Identifiable intangible assets | $64,310 | $75,686 | $26,230 | $24,097 | $4,483 | $5,535 | $3,914 |
| Total current assets | 1,965,153 | 1,498,763 | 1,549,399 | 1,128,811 | 903,598 | 6,351 | 5,529 | Deferred income taxes and other assets | $247,066 | $167,809 | $90,634 | $78,637 | $68,152 | $64,877 | $39,487 | |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | OA | 804,211 | 538,531 | 305,564 | 223,952 | 180,850 | 159,135 | 76,127 | Total operating assets | $3,417,988 | $2,755,935 | $1,517,330 | $1,241,912 | $824,417 | $751,189 | $476,828 |
| Goodwill | OA | 563,591 | 585,181 | 123,256 | 122,244 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Operating liabilities | |||||||
| Identifiable intangible assets | OA | 64,310 | 75,686 | 26,230 | 24,097 | 4,483 | 5,535 | 3,914 | Accounts payable - non-interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | $408,839 | $199,712 | $209,650 | $164,640 | $142,839 | $100,020 | $83,836 |
| Deferred income taxes and other assets | OA | 247,066 | 167,809 | 90,634 | 78,637 | 68,152 | 64,877 | 39,487 | Accrued liabilities Author: Exclude dividends payable. | $249,137 | $236,350 | $182,244 | $156,202 | $99,407 | $76,198 | $57,603 |
| Total assets | 3,644,331 | 2,865,970 | 2,095,083 | 1,577,741 | 1,157,083 | 235,898 | 125,057 | Income taxes payable | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY | Deferred income taxes and other liabilities | $137,227 | $94,868 | $67,906 | $49,806 | $35,176 | $28,329 | $20,188 | ||||||||
| Current Liabilities: | Total operating liabilities | $795,203 | $530,930 | $459,800 | $370,648 | $277,422 | $204,547 | $161,627 | ||||||||
| Current portion of long-term debt | FL | 27,000 | 42,000 | 28,951 | 104,972 | 9,132 | 6,882 | 6,865 | Net operating assets (NOA): | $2,622,785 | $2,225,005 | $1,057,530 | $871,264 | $546,995 | $546,643 | $315,200 |
| Notes payable | FL | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | ||||||||
| Accounts payable | OL | 409,679 | 200,460 | 210,432 | 165,456 | 143,689 | 100,527 | 84,679 | Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO): | |||||||
| Accrued liabilities & Other Liabilities | OL | 249,137 | 236,350 | 182,244 | 156,202 | 99,407 | 76,198 | 57,603 | Financial assets | |||||||
| Income taxes payable | OL | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | Cash equivalent | $226,343 | $110,035 | $577,753 | $335,829 | $332,666 | $168,021 | $198,550 |
| Total current liabilities | 685,816 | 478,810 | 421,627 | 426,630 | 252,228 | 183,607 | 149,147 | Short-term investments | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Long-term debt | FL | 790,388 | 624,070 | 255,250 | 47,951 | 52,757 | 70,842 | 9,077 | Total financial assets | $226,343 | $110,035 | $577,753 | $335,829 | $332,666 | $168,021 | $198,550 |
| Deferred income taxes and other liabilities | OL | 137,227 | 94,868 | 67,906 | 49,806 | 35,176 | 28,329 | 20,188 | Financial liabilities | |||||||
| Redeemable Preferred Stock | FL | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | Current portion of long-term debt | $27,000 | $42,000 | $28,951 | $104,972 | $9,132 | $6,882 | $6,865 |
| Shareholders' Equity: | Notes payable | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ||||||||
| Common Stock at stated value: | Accounts payable - interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | $840 | $748 | $782 | $816 | $850 | $508 | $843 | ||||||||
| Class A convertible | 61 | 61 | 59 | 57 | 28 | 27 | 13 | Long-term debt | $790,388 | $624,070 | $255,250 | $47,951 | $52,757 | $70,842 | $9,077 | |
| Class B | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 4 | Redeemable Preferred Stock | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Class C common stock | 73 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total financial liabilities | $818,228 | $666,818 | $284,983 | $153,739 | $62,739 | $78,232 | $16,785 | |
| Capital in excess of stated value | 823,484 | 636,558 | 508,350 | 397,248 | 321,338 | 268,206 | 224,887 | Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) | ($591,885) | ($556,783) | $292,770 | $182,090 | $269,927 | $89,789 | $181,766 | |
| Unearned stock compensation | OA | |||||||||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive income | (52,143) | (45,013) | (14,808) | 2,194 | 2,368 | 2,028 | 2,041 | Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) | $2,030,900 | $1,668,222 | $1,350,300 | $1,053,354 | $816,922 | $636,432 | $496,966 | |
| Retained earnings | 1,259,414 | 1,076,533 | 856,687 | 653,842 | 493,181 | 366,164 | 270,021 | |||||||||
| Total shareholders' equity | CSE | 2,030,900.0 | 1,668,222 | 1,350,300 | 1,053,354 | 816,922 | 636,432 | 496,966 | ||||||||
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | 3,644,331 | 2,865,970 | 2,095,083 | 1,577,741 | 1,157,083 | 919,210 | 675,378 | |||||||||
Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation: Roadmap Stephen H. Penman 2001
Income Statement (Ch. 10)
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||||||||||
| Step 2: Reformulation | |||||||||||||||
| 2.3. Reformulation of Income Statements | |||||||||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA). INCOME STATEMENTS | Under Armour (UAA). REFORMULATED INCOME STATEMENTS | ||||||||||||||
| (in thousands, except per share data) | (in thousands) | ||||||||||||||
| for the year ended | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | for the year ended | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 |
| Revenues | $4,825,335 | $3,963,313 | $3,084,370 | $2,332,051 | $1,834,921 | $1,472,684 | $1,063,927 | Operating revenue | 4,825,335 | 3,963,313 | 3,084,370 | 2,332,051 | 1,834,921 | 1,472,684 | 1,063,927 |
| Costs and expenses: | Cost of sales | 2,584,724 | 2,057,766 | 1,572,164 | 1,195,381 | 955,624 | 759,848 | 533,420 | |||||||
| Cost of sales | $2,584,724 | $2,057,766 | $1,572,164 | 1,195,381 | 955,624 | 759,848 | 533,420 | Gross margin | 2,240,611 | 1,905,547 | 1,512,206 | 1,136,670 | 879,297 | 712,836 | 530,507 |
| Selling and administrative | 1,823,140 | 1,497,000 | 1,158,252 | 871,572 | 670,602 | 550,069 | 418,152 | Operating expenses | |||||||
| Interest expense, net | 26,434 | 14,628 | 5,334 | 2,933 | 5,183 | 3,841 | 2,258 | Administrative expenses Author: Derived through adjusting "selling and administrative expenses" and "other income/expense" in published income statements. | 1,820,770 | 1,494,637 | 1,155,935 | 869,650 | 668,852 | 548,459 | 416,762 |
| Other income/expense, net | 2,755 | 7,234 | 6,410 | 1,172 | 73 | 2,064 | 1,178 | Advertising Author: Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. | 2,356 | 2,351 | 2,308 | 1,912 | 1,740 | 1,601 | 1,378 |
| Amortization of identifiable intangibles Author: 1. Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. 2. For years before 2001, the amount represents amortization expense of all intangible assets and goodwill. | 14 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | ||||||||
| Intangable and other asset impairment | Other expense, net | 2,755 | 7,234 | 6,471 | 1,172 | 73 | 2,064 | 1,178 | |||||||
| Goodwill Impairment | Total operating expenses | 1,825,895 | 1,504,234 | 1,164,723 | 872,744 | 670,675 | 552,133 | 419,330 | |||||||
| Restructuring charge, net | Core operating income (before tax) | 414,716 | 401,313 | 347,483 | 263,926 | 208,622 | 160,703 | 111,177 | |||||||
| Total costs and expenses | 4,437,053.0 | 3,576,628 | 2,742,160 | 2,071,058 | 1,631,482 | 1,315,822 | 955,008 | Tax on operating income | |||||||
| Income before income taxes and cumulative effect accounting change | 388,282 | 386,685 | 342,210 | 260,993 | 203,439 | 156,862 | 108,919 | Tax as reported | 131,303.0 | 154,112.0 | 134,168.0 | 98,663.0 | 74,661.0 | 59,943.0 | 40,442.0 |
| Income taxes | 131,303 | 154,112 | 134,168 | 98,663 | 74,661 | 59,943 | 40,442 | Tax on other operating income | -0 | -0 | (23.8) | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Income before cumulative effect of accounting change | 256,979 | 232,573 | 208,042 | 162,330 | 128,778 | 96,919 | 68,477 | Tax benefit from net interest expenses | 8,934.7 | 5,836.6 | 2,090.9 | 1,108.7 | 1,902.2 | 1,467.3 | 837.7 |
| Cumulative effect of accounting change, net of income taxes | Total tax on operating income | 140,237.7 | 159,948.6 | 136,235.2 | 99,771.7 | 76,563.2 | 61,410.3 | 41,279.7 | |||||||
| Net income | 256,979 | 232,573 | 208,042 | 162,330 | 128,778 | 96,919 | 68,477 | Core operating income (after tax) | 274,478.3 | 241,364.4 | 211,248.2 | 164,154.3 | 132,058.8 | 99,292.7 | 69,897.3 |
| Basic earnings per common share | 1.17 | 1.08 | 1.0 | 1.54 | 1.23 | 1.88 | 1.35 | Other operating income (expense) (before tax) | |||||||
| Diluted earnings per common share | 1.16 | 1.06 | 0.9 | 1.50 | 1.21 | 1.85 | 1.34 | Gains on divestitures | 60.6 | ||||||
| Impairment | -0 | ||||||||||||||
| Restructuring charge, net | -0 | ||||||||||||||
| -0 | Tax on other operating income | -0 | (23.8) | ||||||||||||
| -0 | 36.8 | ||||||||||||||
| Other operating income (expense) (after tax) | |||||||||||||||
| Currency translation gains (loss) | (16,214.0) | (31,816.0) | (17,002.0) | (897.0) | 423.0 | (13.0) | 1,577.0 | ||||||||
| Net hedging gain (loss) | 9,084.0 | 1,611.0 | -0 | 723.0 | (83.0) | -0 | -0 | ||||||||
| Adjustment for Accounting Changes | -0 | -0 | |||||||||||||
| Effect of stock option exercise | 15,974.4 | 32,008.4 | 29,471.4 | 31,619.6 | -0 | -0 | -0 | ||||||||
| Total other operating income (expense) | 8,844.4 | 1,803.4 | 12,506.2 | 31,445.6 | 340.0 | (13.0) | 1,577.0 | ||||||||
| Operating income after tax | 283,322.7 | 243,167.9 | 223,754.5 | 195,600.0 | 132,398.8 | 99,279.7 | 71,474.3 | ||||||||
| Financial income (NFE) | |||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | (26692) | (14792) | (5526) | (2957) | (5208) | (3871) | (2307) | ||||||||
| Interest income Author: Interest income is netted against interest expense in the GAAP statements. | 258 | 164 | 192 | 24 | 25 | 30 | 49 | ||||||||
| Net interest Income (expense) before tax | (26434) | (14628) | (5334) | (2933) | (5183) | (3841) | (2258) | ||||||||
| Tax benefit of debt | 8,935 | 5,837 | 2,091 | 1,109 | 1,902 | 1,467 | 838 | ||||||||
| Net financial income (expense) | (17,499) | (8,791) | (3,243) | (1,824) | (3,281) | (2,374) | (1,420) | ||||||||
| Comprehensive income (available to common) | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 | ||||||||
| Note: | |||||||||||||||
| Marginal tax rates derived based on the income tax footnotes to the income statements are: | |||||||||||||||
| Fiscal year | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | ||||||||
| Marginal tax rate (from 10k footnote) | 33.80% | 39.90% | 39.2% | 37.8% | 36.7% | 38.2% | 37.1% | ||||||||
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Cash Flows Statement (Ch. 11)
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | ||||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | ||||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | ||||||||||
| Step 2: Reformulation | ||||||||||
| 2.4. Reformulation of the Statement of Cash Flows | ||||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA). STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS | Under Armour (UAA): Calculation of Free Cash Flow Using Reformulated Statements | |||||||||
| in thousands | ||||||||||
| Year ended December 31, 2016 | ||||||||||
| year ended | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | |||
| Cash provided (used) by operations: | Method 1: | |||||||||
| Net income | $256,979 | $232,573 | $208,042 | $162,330 | $128,778 | 96,919 | $68,477 | C - I = OI - change in NOA | ||
| Income charges (credits) not affecting cash: | ||||||||||
| Cumulative effect of accounting change | -0 | -0 | -0 | $0 | Operating income, 2010 | 283,322.7 | ||||
| Depreciation & amortization | 144,770 | 100,940 | 72,093 | 50,549 | 43,082 | 36,301 | $31,321 | NOA, 2010 | 2,622,784.7 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 46,149 | 60,376 | 50,812 | 43,184 | 19,845 | 18,063 | $16,227 | |||
| Unrealized foreign currency exchange rate losses | 12,627 | 33,359 | 11,739 | 1,905 | (2,464) | 4,027 | $1,280 | NOA, 2009 | 2,225,004.6 | 397,780.1 |
| Loss on disposal of property and equipmentt | 1,580 | 549 | 261 | 332 | 524 | 36 | $44 | |||
| Deferred income taxes | (43,004) | (4,426) | (17,584) | (18,832) | (12,973) | 3,620 | ($10,337) | |||
| Change in reserves and allowances | 70,188 | 40,391 | 31,350 | 13,945 | 13,916 | 5,536 | $2,322 | Free cash flow | (114,457.4) | |
| Income tax benefit from exercise of stock options | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | |||
| Changes in certain working capital components: | ||||||||||
| Increase in inventories | (148,055) | (278,524) | (84,658) | (156,900) | 4,699 | (117,946) | ($65,239) | |||
| Decrease (increase) in accounts receivable | (249,853) | (191,876) | (101,057) | (35,960) | (53,433) | (33,923) | ($32,320) | Method 2: | ||
| Decrease (increase) in other current assets and income taxes receivable | (25,284) | (76,476) | (33,345) | (19,049) | (4,060) | (42,633) | ($4,099) | C - I = NFE + Change in NFA + d | ||
| (Decrease) increase in accounts payable, accrued liabilities and income taxes payable | 238,390 | 39,010 | 81,380 | 78,566 | 61,847 | 45,218 | $42,438 | |||
| Cash provided by operations | 304,487 | (44,104) | 219,033 | 120,070.0 | 199,761.0 | 15,218 | 50,114 | NFE, 2016 | 17,499.3 | |
| Cash provided (used) by investing activities: | NFA, 2016 | (591,884.7) | ||||||||
| Purchases of short-term investments | 6,482 | (6,534) | -0 | (1,700.0) | -0 | -0 | -0 | NFA, 2015 | (556,782.6) | (35,102.1) |
| Maturities of short-term investments | Net dividend, 2016 | (96,854.6) | ||||||||
| Additions to property, plant and equipment | (386,746) | (298,928) | (140,528) | (87,830) | (50,650) | (60,090) | (41,307) | |||
| Disposals of property, plant and equipment | Free cash flow | (114,457.4) | ||||||||
| Increase in other assets | (875) | (2,553) | (860) | (475) | (1,310) | (1,153) | (478) | |||
| Increase (decrease) in other liabilities | ||||||||||
| Settlement of net investment hedges | ||||||||||
| Acquisition of subsidiary, net of cash acquired | -0 | (539,460) | (10,924) | (148,097) | 5,029 | (28,193) | -0 | |||
| Proceeds from divesture | ||||||||||
| Cash used by investing activities | (381,139) | (847,475) | (152,312) | (238,102) | (46,931) | (89,436) | (41,785) | |||
| Cash provided (used) by financing activities: | ||||||||||
| Additions to long-term debt | 1,327,601 | 650,000 | 250,000 | 100,000 | -0 | 30,000 | ||||
| Reductions in long-term debt including current portion | (1,170,750) | (265,202) | (118,722) | (5,471) | (19,330) | (6,774) | (4,184.0) | |||
| (Decrease) increase in notes payable | (6,692) | (947) | (1,713) | -0 | (1,017) | (2,324) | (97.0) | |||
| Proceeds from exercise of options and other stock issuances | 15,485 | 10,310 | 15,776 | 15,103 | 14,776 | 14,645 | 7,335.0 | |||
| Excess tax benefits from share-based payment arrangements | 44,783 | 45,917 | 36,965 | 17,163 | 17,868 | 10,260 | 4,189.0 | |||
| Repurchase of stock | (1,505) | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | |||||
| Dividends--common and preferred | (2,927) | -0 | -0 | |||||||
| Cash (used) provided by financing activities | 205,995 | 440,078 | 182,306 | 126,795 | 12,297 | 45,807 | 7,243 | |||
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash | (8,725) | (11,822) | (3,341) | (3,115) | 1,330 | (75) | 1,001 | |||
| Net (decrease) increase in cash and equivalents | 120,618 | (463,323) | 245,686 | 5,648 | 166,457 | (28,486) | 16,573 | |||
| Cash and equivalents, beginning of year | 129,852 | 593,175 | 347,489 | 341,841 | 175,384 | 203,870 | 187,297 | |||
| Cash and equivalents, end of year | 250,470 | 129,852 | 593,175 | 347,489 | 341,841 | 175,384 | 203,870 | |||
| Supplemental disclosure of cash flow information: | ||||||||||
| Cash paid during the year for: | ||||||||||
| Interest (net of amount capitalized) | $21,412 | $11,176 | $4,146 | $1,505 | $3,306 | $2,305 | $992.0 | |||
| Income taxes | $135,969 | $99,708 | $103,284 | $85,570 | $57,739 | $56,940 | 38,773.0 | |||
| Non-cash investing and financing activity: | ||||||||||
| Assumption of long-term debt to acquire property, plant, and equipment | ($39,100) | $23,389 | $16,155 | $3,786 | $12,137 | $38,713 | $2,992.0 | |||
Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation: Roadmap Stephen H. Penman 2001
Reformulation Checks
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||
| Step 2: Reformulation | |||||||
| 2.5. Reformulation Check | |||||||
| FYE | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 |
| Comprehensive income | |||||||
| Ref stmt of shareholders equity | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 |
| Income statement | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 |
| Difference | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Comprehensive income | |||||||
| GAAP net income | 256,979.0 | 232,573.0 | 208,042.0 | 162,330.0 | 128,778.0 | 96,919.0 | 68,477.0 |
| Dirty-surplus items | 8,844.4 | 1,803.4 | 12,469.4 | 31,445.6 | 340.0 | (13.0) | 1,577.0 |
| Adjusted GAAP Net Income | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 |
| Income Statement | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 |
| Difference | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ending CSE | |||||||
| Ref stmt of shareholders equity | 2,030,900.0 | 1,668,222.0 | 1,350,300.0 | 1,053,354.0 | 816,922.0 | 636,432.0 | 496,966.0 |
| Balance sheet | 2,030,900.0 | 1,668,222.0 | 1,350,300.0 | 1,053,354.0 | 816,922.0 | 636,432.0 | 496,966.0 |
| Difference | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Profitability and Growth
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||
| Step 3: Financial Statement Analysis | |||||||
| 3.1 Analysis of Profitability and Growth | |||||||
| Under Armour, year ended December 31, 2016 | |||||||
| A systematic analysis of profitability | |||||||
| Summary measure | ROCE | RNOA | |||||
| 14.37% | 11.69% | ||||||
| First level breakdown | RNOA+[FLEV*(RNOA-NBC)] | ||||||
| 14.37% | |||||||
| Second level breakdown | RNOA = PM*ATO | ||||||
| 11.69% | |||||||
| PM = OI / Sales | ATO = Sales / NOA | ||||||
| 5.87% | 1.99 | ||||||
| Third level breakdown | |||||||
| individual revenue and expense ratios - seen from common size analysis | |||||||
| A systematic analysis of growth | |||||||
| Under Armour. Summary information from balance sheets and income statements | |||||||
| 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Average NOA | 2,423,894.6 | 1,641,267.2 | 964,397.1 | 709,129.4 | 546,818.8 | 430,921.6 | |
| Average NFA | (574,333.6) | (132,006.2) | 237,429.9 | 226,008.6 | 179,858.2 | 135,777.4 | |
| Average CSE | 1,849,561.0 | 1,509,261.0 | 1,201,827.0 | 935,138.0 | 726,677.0 | 566,699.0 | |
| Sales | 4,825,335.0 | 3,963,313.0 | 3,084,370.0 | 2,332,051.0 | 1,834,921.0 | 1,472,684.0 | 1,063,927.0 |
| Core operating income | 274,478.3 | 241,364.4 | 211,248.2 | 164,154.3 | 132,058.8 | 99,292.7 | 69,897.3 |
| Unusual items | 8,844.4 | 1,803.4 | 12,506.2 | 31,445.6 | 340.0 | (13.0) | 1,577.0 |
| Operating income | 283,322.7 | 243,167.9 | 223,754.5 | 195,600.0 | 132,398.8 | 99,279.7 | 71,474.3 |
| Comprehensive income | 265,823.4 | 234,376.4 | 220,511.4 | 193,775.6 | 129,118.0 | 96,906.0 | 70,054.0 |
| Net financial income (expense) | (17,499.3) | (8,791.4) | (3,243.1) | (1,824.3) | (3,280.8) | (2,373.7) | (1,420.3) |
| ROCE | 14.37% | 15.53% | 18.35% | 20.72% | 17.77% | 17.10% | |
| RNOA | 11.69% | 14.82% | 23.20% | 27.58% | 24.21% | 23.04% | |
| NBC | 3.05% | 6.66% | -1.37% | -0.81% | -1.82% | -1.75% | |
| PM | 5.87% | 6.14% | 7.25% | 8.39% | 7.22% | 6.74% | 6.72% |
| Core sales PM | 5.69% | 6.09% | 6.85% | 7.04% | 7.20% | 6.74% | 6.57% |
| ATO | 1.99 | 2.41 | 3.20 | 3.29 | 3.36 | 3.42 | |
| FLEV | 31.05% | 8.75% | -19.76% | -24.17% | -24.75% | -23.96% | |
| SPREAD | 8.64% | 8.16% | 24.57% | 28.39% | 26.04% | 24.79% | |
| * Balance sheet numbers are averages for the year. | |||||||
| Under Armour(UAA) - Residual Earnings Growth: 2010-2016 | |||||||
| Residual earnings | [ROCEt - Cost of Equity Capitalt]*CSEt | ||||||
| 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Revenue growth rate | 21.75% | 28.50% | 32.26% | 27.09% | 24.60% | 38.42% | |
| Growth in CSE | 22.55% | 25.58% | 28.52% | 28.69% | 28.23% | ||
| Growth in comprehensive income | 13.42% | 6.29% | 13.80% | 50.08% | 33.24% | 38.33% | |
| Residual earnings (at cost of equity of 8.50%) | 108610.67 | 106089.24 | 118356.09 | 114288.90 | 67350.46 | 48736.59 | 70054.00 |
| A systematic analysis of the change in ROCE | |||||||
| Analysis of change in RNOA | |||||||
| Level 1: Distinguish core and unusual components of RNOA | |||||||
| RNOA = | Core OI / NOA + | UI / NOA | check | ||||
| 11.69% | 11.32% | 0.36% | 11.69% | ||||
| Level 2: | Change in RNOA = | Change in core sales PM at previous asset turnover level + | Change due to change in asset turnover + | Change due to change in other core income + | |||
| -3.13% | -0.97% | -2.41% | 0 | ||||
| Analysis of changes in ROCE | |||||||
| Change in ROCE = | Change in RNOA + | Change due to change in spread at previous level of financial leverage + | Change due to change in financial leverage | ||||
| -1.16% | -3.13% | 0.04% | 1.93% | ||||
| A systematic analysis of the change in investment (CSE) | |||||||
| Change in CSE = | Change in NOA + | Change in NFA | |||||
| 362678.0 | 397780.1 | -35102.1 | |||||
| NOA = | Sales / ATO | ||||||
| 2,423,894.6 | 2,423,894.6 | ||||||
| Change in CSE = | Change due to change in sales at previous level of asset turnover + | Change due to change in asset turnover + | Change in financial assets | ||||
| 340,300.0 | 356,976.2 | 425651.2 | -442327.4 | ||||
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Common Size and Trend Analysis
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||||||||||
| Step 3: Financial Statement Analysis | |||||||||||||||
| 3.2 Common size and trend analysis | |||||||||||||||
| Common size and trend analysis helps understand the business and how it changes over time. It is a useful step in financial statement analysis in preparation for full-information forecasting and valuation. | |||||||||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA) | Under Armour (UAA) | ||||||||||||||
| Common size analysis of income statements | Trend analysis of income statements | ||||||||||||||
| for the year ended | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | for the year ended | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 |
| Operating revenue | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Operating revenue | 454% | 373% | 290% | 219% | 172% | 138% | 100% |
| Cost of sales | 54% | 52% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 50% | Cost of sales | 485% | 386% | 295% | 224% | 179% | 142% | 100% |
| Gross margin | 46% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 50% | Gross margin | 422% | 359% | 285% | 214% | 166% | 134% | 100% |
| Operating expenses | Operating expenses | ||||||||||||||
| Administrative expenses Author: Derived through adjusting "selling and administrative expenses" and "other income/expense" in published income statements. | 38% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 39% | Administrative expenses Author: Derived through adjusting "selling and administrative expenses" and "other income/expense" in published income statements. | 437% | 359% | 277% | 209% | 160% | 132% | 100% |
| Advertising Author: Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Advertising Author: Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. | 171% | 171% | 168% | 139% | 126% | 116% | 100% |
| Amortization of identifiable intangibles Author: 1. Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. 2. For years before 2001, the amount represents amortization expense of all intangible assets and goodwill. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Amortization of identifiable intangibles Author: 1. Broken out from selling and administrative expenses in published income statements. 2. For years before 2001, the amount represents amortization expense of all intangible assets and goodwill. | 113% | 99% | 77% | 83% | 82% | 78% | 100% |
| Other expense, net | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Other expense, net | 234% | 614% | 549% | 99% | 6% | 175% | 100% |
| Total operating expenses | 38% | 38% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 39% | Total operating expenses | 435% | 359% | 278% | 208% | 160% | 132% | 100% |
| Core operating income (before tax) | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | Core operating income (before tax) | 373% | 361% | 313% | 237% | 188% | 145% | 100% |
| Tax on operating income | Tax on operating income | ||||||||||||||
| Tax as reported | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | Tax as reported | |||||||
| Tax on other operating income | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Tax on other operating income | |||||||
| Tax benefit from net interest expenses | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Tax benefit from net interest expenses | |||||||
| Total tax on operating income | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | Total tax on operating income | 340% | 387% | 330% | 242% | 185% | 149% | 100% |
| Core operating income (after tax) | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | Core operating income (after tax) | 393% | 345% | 302% | 235% | 189% | 142% | 100% |
| Other operating income (expense) (before tax) | Other operating income (expense) (before tax) | ||||||||||||||
| Gains on divestitures | 0.0% | Gains on divestitures | |||||||||||||
| Impairment | 0.0% | Impairment | |||||||||||||
| Restructuring charge, net | 0.0% | Restructuring charge, net | |||||||||||||
| Tax on other operating income | 0.0% | -0.0% | Tax on other operating income | ||||||||||||
| 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| Other operating income (expense) (after tax) | Other operating income (expense) (after tax) | ||||||||||||||
| Currency translation gains (loss) | -0.3% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.1% | Currency translation gains (loss) | |||||||
| Net hedging gain (loss) | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Net hedging gain (loss) | |||||||
| Adjustment for Accounting Changes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Adjustment for Accounting Changes | |||||||
| Effect of stock option exercise | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Effect of stock option exercise | |||||||
| Total other operating income (expense) | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.1% | Total other operating income (expense) | 561% | 114% | 793% | 1994% | 22% | -1% | 100% |
| Operating income after tax | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | Operating income after tax | 396% | 340% | 313% | 274% | 185% | 139% | 100% |
| Financial income (NFE) | Financial income (NFE) | ||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.0% | Interest expense | |||||||
| Interest income Author: Interest income is netted against interest expense in the GAAP statements. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Interest income Author: Interest income is netted against interest expense in the GAAP statements. |
|||||||
| Net interest Income (expense) before tax | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.0% | Net interest Income (expense) before tax | |||||||
| Tax benefit of debt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Tax benefit of debt | |||||||
| Net financial income (expense) | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.0% | -0.0% | Net financial income (expense) | 1232% | 619% | 228% | 128% | 231% | 167% | 100% |
| Comprehensive income (available to common) | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | Comprehensive income (available to common) | 379% | 335% | 315% | 277% | 184% | 138% | 100% |
| Under Armour (UAA) | Under Armour (UAA) | ||||||||||||||
| Common size analysis of balance sheets | Trend analysis of balance sheets | ||||||||||||||
| 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | 2016/12/31 | 2015/12/31 | 2014/12/31 | 2013/12/31 | 2012/12/31 | 2011/12/31 | 2010/12/31 | ||
| Net operating assets (NOA): | Net operating assets (NOA): | ||||||||||||||
| Operating assets | Operating assets | ||||||||||||||
| Cash and equivalents Author: Operating cash is estimated at 0.5% of sales. | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Cash and equivalents Author: Operating cash is estimated at 0.5% of sales. | 454% | 373% | 290% | 219% | 172% | 138% | 100% |
| Accounts receivable, less allowance for doubtful accounts | 18% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 25% | Accounts receivable, less allowance for doubtful accounts | 531% | 370% | 283% | 212% | 169% | 128% | 100% |
| Inventories | 27% | 28% | 35% | 38% | 39% | 43% | 45% | Inventories | 426% | 364% | 249% | 218% | 148% | 151% | 100% |
| Prepaid expenses and other current assets Author: Unearned compensation was deducted from shareholders' equity, and was included in prepaid expenses, because this is actually an asset for shareholders | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | Prepaid expenses and other current assets Author: Unearned compensation was deducted from shareholders' equity, and was included in prepaid expenses, because this is actually an asset for shareholders | 903% | 788% | 451% | 331% | 227% | 205% | 100% |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 24% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 21% | 16% | Property, plant and equipment, net | 1056% | 707% | 401% | 294% | 238% | 209% | 100% |
| Goodwill | 16% | 21% | 8% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Goodwill | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Identifiable intangible assets | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Identifiable intangible assets | 1643% | 1934% | 670% | 616% | 115% | 141% | 100% |
| Deferred income taxes and other assets | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 8% | Deferred income taxes and other assets | 626% | 425% | 230% | 199% | 173% | 164% | 100% |
| Total operating assets | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Total operating assets | 717% | 578% | 318% | 260% | 173% | 158% | 100% |
| Operating liabilities | Operating liabilities | ||||||||||||||
| Accounts payable - non-interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | 51% | 38% | 46% | 44% | 51% | 49% | 52% | Accounts payable - non-interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | 488% | 238% | 250% | 196% | 170% | 119% | 100% |
| Accrued liabilities Author: Exclude dividends payable. | 31% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 36% | Accrued liabilities Author: Exclude dividends payable. | 433% | 410% | 316% | 271% | 173% | 132% | 100% |
| Income taxes payable | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Income taxes payable | |||||||
| Deferred income taxes and other liabilities | 17% | 18% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 12% | Deferred income taxes and other liabilities | 680% | 470% | 336% | 247% | 174% | 140% | 100% |
| Total operating liabilities | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Total operating liabilities | 492% | 328% | 284% | 229% | 172% | 127% | 100% |
| Net operating assets (NOA): | 832% | 706% | 336% | 276% | 174% | 173% | 100% | ||||||||
| Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO): | |||||||||||||||
| Financial assets | Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO): | ||||||||||||||
| Cash equivalent | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Financial assets | |||||||
| Short-term investments | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Cash equivalent | 114% | 55% | 291% | 169% | 168% | 85% | 100% |
| Total financial assets | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Short-term investments | |||||||
| Financial liabilities | Total financial assets | 114% | 55% | 291% | 169% | 168% | 85% | 100% | |||||||
| Current portion of long-term debt | 3% | 6% | 10% | 68% | 15% | 9% | 41% | Financial liabilities | |||||||
| Notes payable | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Current portion of long-term debt | 393% | 612% | 422% | 1529% | 133% | 100% | 100% |
| Accounts payable - interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | Notes payable | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Long-term debt | 97% | 94% | 90% | 31% | 84% | 91% | 54% | Accounts payable - interest bearing Author: Interest-bearing accounts payable are classified as financing obligations. | 100% | 89% | 93% | 97% | 101% | 60% | 100% |
| Redeemable Preferred Stock | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | Long-term debt | 8708% | 6875% | 2812% | 528% | 581% | 780% | 100% |
| Total financial liabilities | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Redeemable Preferred Stock | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total financial liabilities | 4875% | 3973% | 1698% | 916% | 374% | 466% | 100% | ||||||||
| As percentage of CSE: | Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) | -326% | -306% | 161% | 100% | 149% | 49% | 100% | |||||||
| Net operating assets (NOA): | 129.1% | 133.4% | 78.3% | 82.7% | 67.0% | 85.9% | 63.4% | ||||||||
| Net financial assets (obligations) | -29.1% | -33.4% | 21.7% | 17.3% | 33.0% | 14.1% | 36.6% | Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) | 409% | 336% | 272% | 212% | 164% | 128% | 100% |
| Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Charts
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||
| Step 3: Financial Statement Analysis | |||||||
| 3.3 Charts | |||||||
| 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| RNOA | 14.4% | 15.5% | 18.3% | 20.7% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| PM | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| ATO | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | - 0 |
Common-Size Income Statement
Cost of sales 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 0.53565690257774845 0.51920350474464172 0.50971965101463179 0.5125878464922079 0.52079844309373535 0.5159613331848516 0.50136898490215964 Core operating income (before tax) 8.5945535387698502E-2 0.10125695346292346 0.11265944098794889 0.11317333969111315 0.11369535800178865 0.10912252730388866 0.10449683107957597 Total operating expenses 0.37839756203455305 0.37953954179243482 0.37762090799741932 0.37423881381667895 0.365506198904476 0.37491613951125974 0.39413418401826439 Total other operating income (expense) 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Net financial income (expense) -3.6265477940909795E-3 -1.821931119808262E-3 -6.7209261118658084E-4 -3.7807240326319315E-4 -6.7991942528342595E-4 -4.9193226998747242E-4 -2.9433852779133473E-4 Operating income after tax 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Comprehensive income (available to common) 5.5089099158663599E-2 4.8572053405488272E-2 4.569866785276025E-2 4.0157963264405315E-2 2.6758349420299317E-2 2.0082750731296378E-2 1.4517955748150128E-2
Percent of Revenue
Common-Size Balance Sheet
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 1.2914395957457285 1.3337580759635108 0.7831814041324151 0.82713338061088659 0.66957996601878755 0.85891803052014992 0.63424929472036318 Net financial assets (obligations) -0.29143959574572853 -0.33375807596351081 0.21681859586758501 0.17286661938911324 0.33042003398121245 0.14108196947985013 0.36575070527963677
Percent of Total CSE
Trend Analysis of Income Statement Items
Operating revenue 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 4.5354004551064122 3.7251738136169115 2.8990428854611268 2.1919276416521059 1.7246681398253827 1.3841964721263771 1 Gross margin 4.2235276820098511 3.5919356389265364 2.8504920764476247 2.1426107478317911 1.6574654057345144 1.3436882076956571 1 Core operating income (before tax) 3.7302319724403428 3.6096764618581183 3.1254971801721569 2.3739262617267962 1.8764852442501596 1.4454698363870224 1 Core operating income (after tax) 3.9268809908803024 3.4531303806634424 3.022266691285648 2.3485080006401393 1.8893272416515423 1.4205522040184622 1 Operating income after tax 3.9639805865943503 3.4021727887993576 3.1305589532651599 2.7366480109369857 1.8523983074079708 1.3890274266763531 1 Comprehensive income (available to common) 3.7945493232188028 3.3456537716528931 3.1477343398421058 2.7660893834534677 1.8431210209267137 1.3833043081051759 1
Percent of 2000 Value
Trend Analysis of Balance Sheet Items
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 8.321008526212383 7.0590171327070443 3.3551038262697279 2.7641603077610939 1.7353871308544133 1.7342713801366993 1 Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) -3.2563062721444127 -3.063188886635988 1.6107010639220563 1.0017829549931776 1.4850296121657522 0.49398262317583463 1 Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) 4.0865974734690091 3.356813142146545 2.71708728564932 2.1195695480173695 1.6438186918219757 1.280634892527859 1
Percent of 2000 Values
RNOA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0.18348013602897828 0.20721607470603184 0.17768279441897844 0.17100083112904735 0 PM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 7.2544621249493055E-2 8.3874645823976066E-2 7.2155062261536063E-2 6.7414148588563469E-2 6.7179686200275021E-2 ATO 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 3.1982366515994718 3.2886112200984243 3.3556291880163864 3.417521669877198 0
Common-Size Income Statement
Cost of sales 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 0.53565690257774845 0.51920350474464172 0.50971965101463179 0.5125878464922079 0.52079844309373535 0.5159613331848516 0.50136898490215964 Core operating income (before tax) 8.5945535387698502E-2 0.10125695346292346 0.11265944098794889 0.11317333969111315 0.11369535800178865 0.10912252730388866 0.10449683107957597 Total operating expenses 0.37839756203455305 0.37953954179243482 0.37762090799741932 0.37423881381667895 0.365506198904476 0.37491613951125974 0.39413418401826439 Total other operating income (expense) 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Net financial income (expense) -3.6265477940909795E-3 -1.821931119808262E-3 -6.7209261118658084E-4 -3.7807240326319315E-4 -6.7991942528342595E-4 -4.9193226998747242E-4 -2.9433852779133473E-4 Operating income after tax 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Comprehensive income (available to common) 5.5089099158663599E-2 4.8572053405488272E-2 4.569866785276025E-2 4.0157963264405315E-2 2.6758349420299317E-2 2.0082750731296378E-2 1.4517955748150128E-2
Percent of Revenue
Common-Size Balance Sheet
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 1.2914395957457285 1.3337580759635108 0.7831814041324151 0.82713338061088659 0.66957996601878755 0.85891803052014992 0.63424929472036318 Net financial assets (obligations) -0.29143959574572853 -0.33375807596351081 0.21681859586758501 0.17286661938911324 0.33042003398121245 0.14108196947985013 0.36575070527963677
Percent of Total CSE
Trend Analysis of Income Statement Items
Operating revenue 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 4.5354004551064122 3.7251738136169115 2.8990428854611268 2.1919276416521059 1.7246681398253827 1.3841964721263771 1 Gross margin 4.2235276820098511 3.5919356389265364 2.8504920764476247 2.1426107478317911 1.6574654057345144 1.3436882076956571 1 Core operating income (before tax) 3.7302319724403428 3.6096764618581183 3.1254971801721569 2.3739262617267962 1.8764852442501596 1.4454698363870224 1 Core operating income (after tax) 3.9268809908803024 3.4531303806634424 3.022266691285648 2.3485080006401393 1.8893272416515423 1.4205522040184622 1 Operating income after tax 3.9639805865943503 3.4021727887993576 3.1305589532651599 2.7366480109369857 1.8523983074079708 1.3890274266763531 1 Comprehensive income (available to common) 3.7945493232188028 3.3456537716528931 3.1477343398421058 2.7660893834534677 1.8431210209267137 1.3833043081051759 1
Percent of 2000 Value
Trend Analysis of Balance Sheet Items
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 8.321008526212383 7.0590171327070443 3.3551038262697279 2.7641603077610939 1.7353871308544133 1.7342713801366993 1 Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) -3.2563062721444127 -3.063188886635988 1.6107010639220563 1.0017829549931776 1.4850296121657522 0.49398262317583463 1 Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) 4.0865974734690091 3.356813142146545 2.71708728564932 2.1195695480173695 1.6438186918219757 1.280634892527859 1
Percent of 2000 Values
RNOA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0.18348013602897828 0.20721607470603184 0.17768279441897844 0.17100083112904735 0 PM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 7.2544621249493055E-2 8.3874645823976066E-2 7.2155062261536063E-2 6.7414148588563469E-2 6.7179686200275021E-2 ATO 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 3.1982366515994718 3.2886112200984243 3.3556291880163864 3.417521669877198 0
Common-Size Income Statement
Cost of sales 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 0.53565690257774845 0.51920350474464172 0.50971965101463179 0.5125878464922079 0.52079844309373535 0.5159613331848516 0.50136898490215964 Core operating income (before tax) 8.5945535387698502E-2 0.10125695346292346 0.11265944098794889 0.11317333969111315 0.11369535800178865 0.10912252730388866 0.10449683107957597 Total operating expenses 0.37839756203455305 0.37953954179243482 0.37762090799741932 0.37423881381667895 0.365506198904476 0.37491613951125974 0.39413418401826439 Total other operating income (expense) 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Net financial income (expense) -3.6265477940909795E-3 -1.821931119808262E-3 -6.7209261118658084E-4 -3.7807240326319315E-4 -6.7991942528342595E-4 -4.9193226998747242E-4 -2.9433852779133473E-4 Operating income after tax 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Comprehensive income (available to common) 5.5089099158663599E-2 4.8572053405488272E-2 4.569866785276025E-2 4.0157963264405315E-2 2.6758349420299317E-2 2.0082750731296378E-2 1.4517955748150128E-2
Percent of Revenue
Common-Size Balance Sheet
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 1.2914395957457285 1.3337580759635108 0.7831814041324151 0.82713338061088659 0.66957996601878755 0.85891803052014992 0.63424929472036318 Net financial assets (obligations) -0.29143959574572853 -0.33375807596351081 0.21681859586758501 0.17286661938911324 0.33042003398121245 0.14108196947985013 0.36575070527963677
Percent of Total CSE
Trend Analysis of Income Statement Items
Operating revenue 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 4.5354004551064122 3.7251738136169115 2.8990428854611268 2.1919276416521059 1.7246681398253827 1.3841964721263771 1 Gross margin 4.2235276820098511 3.5919356389265364 2.8504920764476247 2.1426107478317911 1.6574654057345144 1.3436882076956571 1 Core operating income (before tax) 3.7302319724403428 3.6096764618581183 3.1254971801721569 2.3739262617267962 1.8764852442501596 1.4454698363870224 1 Core operating income (after tax) 3.9268809908803024 3.4531303806634424 3.022266691285648 2.3485080006401393 1.8893272416515423 1.4205522040184622 1 Operating income after tax 3.9639805865943503 3.4021727887993576 3.1305589532651599 2.7366480109369857 1.8523983074079708 1.3890274266763531 1 Comprehensive income (available to common) 3.7945493232188028 3.3456537716528931 3.1477343398421058 2.7660893834534677 1.8431210209267137 1.3833043081051759 1
Percent of 2000 Value
Trend Analysis of Balance Sheet Items
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 8.321008526212383 7.0590171327070443 3.3551038262697279 2.7641603077610939 1.7353871308544133 1.7342713801366993 1 Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) -3.2563062721444127 -3.063188886635988 1.6107010639220563 1.0017829549931776 1.4850296121657522 0.49398262317583463 1 Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) 4.0865974734690091 3.356813142146545 2.71708728564932 2.1195695480173695 1.6438186918219757 1.280634892527859 1
Percent of 2000 Values
RNOA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0.18348013602897828 0.20721607470603184 0.17768279441897844 0.17100083112904735 0 PM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 7.2544621249493055E-2 8.3874645823976066E-2 7.2155062261536063E-2 6.7414148588563469E-2 6.7179686200275021E-2 ATO 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 3.1982366515994718 3.2886112200984243 3.3556291880163864 3.417521669877198 0
Common-Size Income Statement
Cost of sales 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 0.53565690257774845 0.51920350474464172 0.50971965101463179 0.5125878464922079 0.52079844309373535 0.5159613331848516 0.50136898490215964 Core operating income (before tax) 8.5945535387698502E-2 0.10125695346292346 0.11265944098794889 0.11317333969111315 0.11369535800178865 0.10912252730388866 0.10449683107957597 Total operating expenses 0.37839756203455305 0.37953954179243482 0.37762090799741932 0.37423881381667895 0.365506198904476 0.37491613951125974 0.39413418401826439 Total other operating income (expense) 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Net financial income (expense) -3.6265477940909795E-3 -1.821931119808262E-3 -6.7209261118658084E-4 -3.7807240326319315E-4 -6.7991942528342595E-4 -4.9193226998747242E-4 -2.9433852779133473E-4 Operating income after tax 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Comprehensive income (available to common) 5.5089099158663599E-2 4.8572053405488272E-2 4.569866785276025E-2 4.0157963264405315E-2 2.6758349420299317E-2 2.0082750731296378E-2 1.4517955748150128E-2
Percent of Revenue
Common-Size Balance Sheet
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 1.2914395957457285 1.3337580759635108 0.7831814041324151 0.82713338061088659 0.66957996601878755 0.85891803052014992 0.63424929472036318 Net financial assets (obligations) -0.29143959574572853 -0.33375807596351081 0.21681859586758501 0.17286661938911324 0.33042003398121245 0.14108196947985013 0.36575070527963677
Percent of Total CSE
Trend Analysis of Income Statement Items
Operating revenue 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 4.5354004551064122 3.7251738136169115 2.8990428854611268 2.1919276416521059 1.7246681398253827 1.3841964721263771 1 Gross margin 4.2235276820098511 3.5919356389265364 2.8504920764476247 2.1426107478317911 1.6574654057345144 1.3436882076956571 1 Core operating income (before tax) 3.7302319724403428 3.6096764618581183 3.1254971801721569 2.3739262617267962 1.8764852442501596 1.4454698363870224 1 Core operating income (after tax) 3.9268809908803024 3.4531303806634424 3.022266691285648 2.3485080006401393 1.8893272416515423 1.4205522040184622 1 Operating income after tax 3.9639805865943503 3.4021727887993576 3.1305589532651599 2.7366480109369857 1.8523983074079708 1.3890274266763531 1 Comprehensive income (available to common) 3.7945493232188028 3.3456537716528931 3.1477343398421058 2.7660893834534677 1.8431210209267137 1.3833043081051759 1
Percent of 2000 Value
Trend Analysis of Balance Sheet Items
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 8.321008526212383 7.0590171327070443 3.3551038262697279 2.7641603077610939 1.7353871308544133 1.7342713801366993 1 Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) -3.2563062721444127 -3.063188886635988 1.6107010639220563 1.0017829549931776 1.4850296121657522 0.49398262317583463 1 Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) 4.0865974734690091 3.356813142146545 2.71708728564932 2.1195695480173695 1.6438186918219757 1.280634892527859 1
Percent of 2000 Values
RNOA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0.18348013602897828 0.20721607470603184 0.17768279441897844 0.17100083112904735 0 PM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 7.2544621249493055E-2 8.3874645823976066E-2 7.2155062261536063E-2 6.7414148588563469E-2 6.7179686200275021E-2 ATO 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 3.1982366515994718 3.2886112200984243 3.3556291880163864 3.417521669877198 0
Common-Size Income Statement
Cost of sales 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 0.53565690257774845 0.51920350474464172 0.50971965101463179 0.5125878464922079 0.52079844309373535 0.5159613331848516 0.50136898490215964 Core operating income (before tax) 8.5945535387698502E-2 0.10125695346292346 0.11265944098794889 0.11317333969111315 0.11369535800178865 0.10912252730388866 0.10449683107957597 Total operating expenses 0.37839756203455305 0.37953954179243482 0.37762090799741932 0.37423881381667895 0.365506198904476 0.37491613951125974 0.39413418401826439 Total other operating income (expense) 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Net financial income (expense) -3.6265477940909795E-3 -1.821931119808262E-3 -6.7209261118658084E-4 -3.7807240326319315E-4 -6.7991942528342595E-4 -4.9193226998747242E-4 -2.9433852779133473E-4 Operating income after tax 5.8715646952754622E-2 6.1354694246800921E-2 7.2532675600948948E-2 8.3874645823976107E-2 7.2155062261536076E-2 6.7414148588563441E-2 6.7179686200275035E-2 Comprehensive income (available to common) 5.5089099158663599E-2 4.8572053405488272E-2 4.569866785276025E-2 4.0157963264405315E-2 2.6758349420299317E-2 2.0082750731296378E-2 1.4517955748150128E-2
Percent of Revenue
Common-Size Balance Sheet
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 1.2914395957457285 1.3337580759635108 0.7831814041324151 0.82713338061088659 0.66957996601878755 0.85891803052014992 0.63424929472036318 Net financial assets (obligations) -0.29143959574572853 -0.33375807596351081 0.21681859586758501 0.17286661938911324 0.33042003398121245 0.14108196947985013 0.36575070527963677
Percent of Total CSE
Trend Analysis of Income Statement Items
Operating revenue 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 4.5354004551064122 3.7251738136169115 2.8990428854611268 2.1919276416521059 1.7246681398253827 1.3841964721263771 1 Gross margin 4.2235276820098511 3.5919356389265364 2.8504920764476247 2.1426107478317911 1.6574654057345144 1.3436882076956571 1 Core operating income (before tax) 3.7302319724403428 3.6096764618581183 3.1254971801721569 2.3739262617267962 1.8764852442501596 1.4454698363870224 1 Core operating income (after tax) 3.9268809908803024 3.4531303806634424 3.022266691285648 2.3485080006401393 1.8893272416515423 1.4205522040184622 1 Operating income after tax 3.9639805865943503 3.4021727887993576 3.1305589532651599 2.7366480109369857 1.8523983074079708 1.3890274266763531 1 Comprehensive income (available to common) 3.7945493232188028 3.3456537716528931 3.1477343398421058 2.7660893834534677 1.8431210209267137 1.3833043081051759 1
Percent of 2000 Value
Trend Analysis of Balance Sheet Items
Net operating assets (NOA): 42735 42369 42004 41639 41274 40908 40543 8.321008526212383 7.0590171327070443 3.3551038262697279 2.7641603077610939 1.7353871308544133 1.7342713801366993 1 Net financial assets (obligations) (NFA/NFO) -3.2563062721444127 -3.063188886635988 1.6107010639220563 1.0017829549931776 1.4850296121657522 0.49398262317583463 1 Common Shareholders' Equity (CSE) 4.0865974734690091 3.356813142146545 2.71708728564932 2.1195695480173695 1.6438186918219757 1.280634892527859 1
Percent of 2000 Values
RNOA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0.18348013602897828 0.20721607470603184 0.17768279441897844 0.17100083112904735 0 PM 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 7.2544621249493055E-2 8.3874645823976066E-2 7.2155062261536063E-2 6.7414148588563469E-2 6.7179686200275021E-2 ATO 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 3.1982366515994718 3.2886112200984243 3.3556291880163864 3.417521669877198 0
Valuation - Essentials
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | ||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | ||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | ||
| Step 4: Projection and Valuation | ||
| 4.1. Valuation essentials | ||
| Net income component | Book value component | Residual earnings components |
| Operating income (OI) | Net operating assets (NOA) | Residual operating income: OIt - (kF-1)*NOAt-1 |
| Net financial expense (NFE) | Net financial obligations (NFO) | Residual net financial expense: NFEt - (kD-1)NFOt-1 |
| Earnings | Common stockholders' equity (CSE) | Residual earnings: Earnt-(kE-1)*CSEt-1 |
| Value of operations = | Net operating assets + | Present value of expected residual operating income |
| Value of common equity = | Book value of common equity + | Present value of expected residual operating income |
| Value of operations = | Value of common equity + | Value of net financial obligations |
| Discount rates | ||
| Denoted as | Formula | |
| Cost of capital for equity | kE | rf + beta*(rm-rf) |
| Cost of capital for debt | kD | NBC |
| Cost of operations | kF | kE*VE/VF + kD*VD/VF |
| For Nike in 2000 | ||
| riskfree rate (T-bill rate) | 5.50% | |
| Beta | 0.95 | |
| Market risk premium (rm-rf) | 6.00% | |
| kE | 11.20% | |
| kD | 5.21% | |
| Market value of equity* | ERROR:#REF! | |
| Market value of debt | 1,295.48 | |
| Market value of the firm | ERROR:#REF! | |
| kF | ERROR:#REF! | |
| * using Nike market close on Sept. 1, 2000 of $40.875 per share. | ||
| For Under Armour (UAA) in 2016 | ||
| rish-free rate (10-year Treasury rate) | 1.4% | |
| Beta | 0.03 | |
| Market risk premium (rm-rf) | 5.0% | |
| kE | 1.6% | |
| kD | 0.0% | (Get borrowing rate from debt footnote (0%) and convert to after-tax basis (0%)) |
| Number of shares | 434.5 | |
| Under Armour's close price on December 31, 2016 | $ 25.17 | |
| Market value of equity | 10,936 | |
| Net Financial Obligation | 591,885 | |
| Market value of the firm | 602,821 | |
| kF | 0.0% |
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
No-Growth and Growth Valuation
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||||
| Step 4: Projection and Valuation | |||||||||
| 4.2. Simple forecasts and simple valuations | |||||||||
| No-Growth Valuation: Forecasts from earnings and book values | Page 485 | ||||||||
| Forecasting earnings and its components by forecasting that earnings will be the same as in the current year, adjusted for changes in the balance sheet earning at the required return. | |||||||||
| No-Growth Forecast is assuming all future residual earnings are the same as in the current year. | |||||||||
| No-Growth Forecast Valuations of Under Armour | |||||||||
| Under Armour (UAA) | |||||||||
| in thousands except for per share data | |||||||||
| Required return for operations | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Common shareholders' equity, 2016 | 2,030,900.0 | ||||||||
| Core operating income, 2016 | 274,478.3 | ||||||||
| Net operating assets, 2016 | 2,622,784.7 | ||||||||
| Net operating assets, 2015 | 2,225,004.6 | ||||||||
| Core residual operating income, 2016 | 273,852.6 | ||||||||
| No-Growth Forecast of ReOI, 2017 | 273,852.6 | ||||||||
| No-Growth Forecast of operating income, 2017 | 274,590.2 | ||||||||
| Value of common equity | |||||||||
| vE = CSE2016 + ReOI2016/kF | 975,900,102.4 | ||||||||
| # of shares | 434.5 | ||||||||
| Value per share | 2,246,030.16 | ||||||||
| Value of operations | |||||||||
| vNOA = vE + NFO | 976,491,987.1 | ||||||||
| vNOA = NOA + ReOI/kF | 976,491,987.1 | ||||||||
| vNOA = OI2017/kF | 976,491,987.1 | ||||||||
| Growth Valution: Forecasting from accounting rates of return | Page 487 | ||||||||
| Forecast of earnings component: Forecast earnings and its components by forecasting that the relevant balance sheet component will earn at the current profitability | |||||||||
| Operating | OI1 = RNOA0*NOA0 | ||||||||
| Financing | NFE1 = NBC0*NFO0 | ||||||||
| Earnings | Earn1 = ROCE0*CSE0 | ||||||||
| Growth Valuations of Under Armour (UAA) | |||||||||
| Cost of capital for operations | 0.03% | ||||||||
| RNOA, 2016 (on average NOA) | 11.69% | ||||||||
| Growth rate for net operating assets (2010-2016) | 7.3% | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Net operating assets, 2016 | 2,622,784.7 | NOA = | $2,622,033 | $2,224,335 | $1,056,814 | $870,493 | $546,214 | $546,189 | $314,402 |
| Growth Rate for NOA= | 0.18 | 1.10 | 0.21 | 0.59 | 0.000047 | 0.74 | |||
| Growth forecast of operating income, 2017 | 306,570.4 | ||||||||
| Growth forecast of ReOI, 2017 | 305,832.9 | Growth Rate for NOA= | NOA Present - NOA Past | ||||||
| NOA Past | |||||||||
| Value of common equity | |||||||||
| vE = CSE+ ReOI1/(kF-g) | (2,151,922.7) | Growth Rate for NOA 2010-2016= | 7.34% | ||||||
| Value per share | (4,952.64) | ||||||||
| Value of operations | |||||||||
| vNOA = vE + NFO | (1,560,038.0) | ||||||||
| vNOA = NOA + ReOI1/(kF-g) | (1,560,038.0) | ||||||||
| vNOA = NOA*(RNOA-g)/(kF-g) | (1,560,038.0) | ||||||||
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Full Forecasting and Valuation
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | |||||||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | |||||||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | |||||||
| Step 4: Projection and Valuation | |||||||
| 4.3. Full-information forecasting: Under Armour (UAA) | |||||||
| Forecasts of key income statement ratios | Page 441 | ||||||
| 2016A | 2015E | 2014E | 2013E | 2012E | 2011E | 2010E and after | |
| Gross margin | 46.4% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| SG&A expense ratio | 37.8% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Tax rate | 33.8% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Sales growth | 21.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Forecasts of turnover | |||||||
| 2016A | 2015E | 2014E | 2013E | 2012E | 2011E | 2010E and after | |
| Accounts receivable turnover | 9.14 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| Inventory turnover | 5.68 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| PPE turnover | 7.19 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| Other NOA/Sales | 5.8% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -6% |
| Pro forma financial statements | |||||||
| 2016A | 2015E | 2014E | 2013E | 2012E | 2011E | 2010E and after | |
| Income statement | |||||||
| Sales | 4,825,335.0 | 5,018,348.4 | 5,219,082.3 | 5,427,845.6 | 5,644,959.5 | 5,870,757.8 | |
| Cost of sales | 2,584,724.0 | 2,760,091.6 | 2,870,495.3 | 2,985,315.1 | 3,104,727.7 | 3,228,916.8 | |
| Gross margin | 2,240,611.0 | 2,258,256.8 | 2,348,587.1 | 2,442,530.5 | 2,540,231.8 | 2,641,841.0 | |
| Total operating expenses | 1,825,895.0 | 1,505,504.5 | 1,565,724.7 | 1,628,353.7 | 1,693,487.8 | 1,761,227.3 | |
| Core operating income before tax | 414,716.0 | 752,752.3 | 782,862.4 | 814,176.8 | 846,743.9 | 880,613.7 | |
| Taxes | 140,237.7 | 263,463.3 | 274,001.8 | 284,961.9 | 296,360.4 | 308,214.8 | |
| Core operating income after tax | 274,478.3 | 489,289.0 | 508,860.5 | 529,214.9 | 550,383.5 | 572,398.9 | |
| Other income (expense) | 8,844.4 | ||||||
| Operating income | 283,322.7 | 489,289.0 | 508,860.5 | 529,214.9 | 550,383.5 | 572,398.9 | |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Account receivable | 622,685.0 | 737,992.4 | 767,512.1 | 798,212.6 | 830,141.1 | 863,346.7 | |
| Inventory | 917,491.0 | 583,528.9 | 606,870.0 | 631,144.8 | 656,390.6 | 682,646.3 | |
| Property, plant and equipment | 804,211.0 | 517,355.5 | 538,049.7 | 559,571.7 | 581,954.6 | 605,232.8 | |
| Other NOA | 278,397.7 | (301,100.9) | (313,144.9) | (325,670.7) | (338,697.6) | (352,245.5) | |
| Net operating assets (NOA) | 2,622,784.7 | 1,537,775.9 | 1,599,286.9 | 1,663,258.4 | 1,729,788.7 | 1,798,980.3 | |
| Operating income | 283,322.7 | 489,289.0 | 508,860.5 | 529,214.9 | 550,383.5 | 572,398.9 | |
| Change in NOA | 397,780.1 | (1,085,008.8) | 61,511.0 | 63,971.5 | 66,530.3 | 69,191.5 | |
| Free cash flow | (114,457.4) | 1,574,297.7 | 447,349.5 | 465,243.5 | 483,853.2 | 503,207.3 | |
| RNOA | 11.7% | 23.5% | 32.4% | 32.4% | 32.4% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| ReOI | 282,641.1 | 616,150.3 | 498,450.4 | 518,388.5 | 539,124.0 | 560,689.0 | 583,116.5 |
| Growth in ReOI | 118.0% | -19.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | |
| Cost of operations | 0.03% | ||||||
| Total PV of ReOI to 2010 | 2,730,518.0 | ||||||
| Continuing value Author: Assume growth in ReOI remains constant at 4% into the future. | (14,681,121.6) | ||||||
| PV of CV | (14,660,497.3) | ||||||
| NOA as of 2010 | 2,622,784.7 | ||||||
| Value of operations | (9,307,194.5) | ||||||
| NFA (NFO) | (591,884.7) | ||||||
| Value of common equity | (9,899,079.2) | ||||||
| Number of shares outstanding | 434.5 | ||||||
| Value per share | $ (22,782.69) | ||||||
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Reverse engineering
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) | ||
| Stephen Penman 2012 | ||
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product | ||
| Step 4: Projection and Valuation | ||
| 4.4. Reverse engineering: Implied Expected Return and Implied Growth Rate | ||
| Reverse engineering to get implied expected return | (Page 665) | |
| ER = [NOA0/PNOA0 x RNOA1] + [(1- NOA0/PNOA0) x (g-1)] | ||
| NOA0 | 2622784.675 | |
| P0 | 602821.0 | |
| RNOA1 | 11.69% | |
| g-1 | ER | |
| -3% | 60.9% | |
| -2% | 57.6% | |
| -1% | 54.2% | |
| 0 | 50.9% | |
| 1% | 47.5% | |
| 2% | 44.2% | |
| 3% | 40.8% | |
| 4% | 37.5% | |
| 5% | 34.1% | |
| 6% | 30.8% | |
| 7% | 27.4% | |
| 4.48% | 35.85% | |
| Reverse engineering to get implied growth rate | (Page 492) | |
| Cost of capital for operations | 0.03% | |
| RNOA, 2016 (on average NOA) | 11.69% | |
| Growth rate for net operating assets (2010-2016) | 7.34% | |
| Net operating assets, 2016 | 2,622,784.68 | |
| Forwared Operating Income Forecast | 306,570.4 | |
| ReOI2017 | 305,832.9 | |
| Market Value of the Firm | 602,821.0 | |
| VNOA = NOA + ReOI1/(kF-g) | (4,247,531.7) | |
| Market price implied growth rate | 4.48% | <- This number was calculated by goal seek to make E54=E55 |
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003
Bells and Whistles
| Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (Fifth Edition) |
| Stephen Penman 2012 |
| Roadmap to Developing Your Own Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation Product |
| Step 5: Bells and Whistles |
| Steps 1-4 set up a basic valuation tool. You can add additional features: |
| Sensitivity analysis (Chapters 15) |
| Business Strategy Analysis (Chapter 16) |
| Economics Value Analysis (Chapter 17) (Please see web page for this chapter with additional tools) |
| Quality of earnings analysis (Chapters 18) |
| Risk analysis (Chapters 19 and 20) |
&8Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation: Roadmap &8Stephen H. Penman 2003