Comparing Factors that Lead to Underdevelopment

Country classification

Data sources, country classifications and aggregation methodology

The statistical annex contains a set of data that the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) employs to delineate trends in various dimensions of the world economy.

Data sources The annex was prepared by the Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD) of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (UN/DESA). It is based on information obtained from the Statistics Division and the Population Division of UN/DESA, as well as from the five United Nations regional commissions, the United Na- tions Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the United Nations World Tour- ism Organization (UNWTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and national and private sources. Estimates for the most recent years were made by DPAD in consultation with the regional commissions, UNCTAD, UNWTO and participants in Project LINK, an international collaborative research group for econometric modelling coordinated jointly by DPAD and the University of Toronto. Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are primarily based on the World Economic Forecasting Model of DPAD, with support from Project LINK.

Data presented in WESP may differ from those published by other organizations for a series of reasons, including differences in timing, sample composition and aggregation methods. Historical data may differ from those in previous editions of WESP because of updating and changes in the availability of data for individual countries.

Country classifications For analytical purposes, WESP classifies all countries of the world into one of three broad categories: developed economies, economies in transition and developing economies. The composition of these groupings, specified in tables A, B and C, is intended to reflect basic economic country conditions. Several countries (in particular the economies in transition) have characteristics that could place them in more than one category; however, for purposes of analysis, the groupings have been made mutually exclusive. Within each broad category, some subgroups are defined based either on geographical location or on ad hoc criteria, such as the subgroup of “major developed economies”, which is based on the membership of the Group of Seven. Geographical regions for developing economies are as follows: Africa, East Asia, South Asia, Western Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.1

1 Names and composition of geographical areas follow those specified in the statistical paper entitled “Standard country or area codes for statistical use” (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/49/Rev. 4).

144 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014

In parts of the analysis, a distinction is made between fuel exporters and fuel importers from among the economies in transition and the developing countries. An economy is classified as a fuel exporter if the share of fuel exports in its total merchandise exports is greater than 20 per cent and the level of fuel exports is at least 20 per cent higher than that of the country’s fuel imports. This criterion is drawn from the share of fuel exports in the total value of world merchandise trade. Fuels include coal, oil and natural gas (table D).

For other parts of the analysis, countries have been classified by their level of devel- opment as measured by per capita gross national income (GNI). Accordingly, countries have been grouped as high-income, upper middle income, lower middle income and low-income (table E). To maintain compatibility with similar classifications used else- where, the threshold levels of GNI per capita are those established by the World Bank. Countries with less than $1,035 GNI per capita are classified as low-income countries, those with between $1,036 and $4,085 as lower middle income countries, those with between $4,086 and $12,615 as upper middle income countries, and those with incomes of more than $12,615 as high-income countries. GNI per capita in dollar terms is esti- mated using the World Bank Atlas method,2 and the classification in table E is based on data for 2012.

The list of the least developed countries (LDCs) is decided upon by the United Nations Economic and Social Council and, ultimately, by the General Assembly, on the basis of recommendations made by the Committee for Development Policy. The basic criteria for inclusion require that certain thresholds be met with regard to per capita GNI, a human assets index and an economic vulnerability index.3 As at 29 November 2013, there were 49 LDCs (table F).

WESP also makes reference to the group of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), which are considered by the World Bank and IMF as part of their debt-relief initiative (the Enhanced HIPC Initiative).4 In September 2013, there were 39 HIPCs (see table G).

Aggregation methodology Aggregate data are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data. Unless otherwise indicated, multi-year averages of growth rates are expressed as compound an- nual percentage rates of change. The convention followed is to omit the base year in a multi-year growth rate. For example, the 10-year average growth rate for the decade of the 2000s would be identified as the average annual growth rate for the period from 2001 to 2010.

WESP utilizes exchange-rate conversions of national data in order to aggregate output of individual countries into regional and global totals. The growth of output in each group of countries is calculated from the sum of gross domestic product (GDP) of individual countries measured at 2005 prices and exchange rates. Data for GDP in

2 See http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications. 3 Handbook on the Least Developed Country Category: Inclusion, Graduation and Special Support Measures

(United Nations publication, Sales No. E.07.II.A.9). Available from http://www.un.org/esa/analysis/ devplan/cdppublications/2008cdphandbook.pdf.

4 IMF, Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Available from http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/pdf/hipc.pdf

145Country classification

2005 in national currencies were converted into dollars (with selected adjustments) and extended forwards and backwards in time using changes in real GDP for each country. This method supplies a reasonable set of aggregate growth rates for a period of about 15 years, centred on 2005.

The exchange-rate based method differs from the one mainly applied by the IMF and the World Bank for their estimates of world and regional economic growth, which is based on purchasing power parity (PPP) weights. Over the past two decades, the growth of world gross product (WGP) on the basis of the exchange-rate based approach has been below that based on PPP weights. This is because developing countries, in the aggregate, have seen significantly higher economic growth than the rest of the world in the 1990s and 2000s and the share in WGP of these countries is larger under PPP measurements than under market exchange rates.

Table A Developed economies

Europe

Other countries Major developed economies (G7)European Union New EU member States Other Europe

EU-15

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Malta

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Iceland

Norway

Switzerland

Australia

Canada

Japan

New Zealand

United States

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

United States

Table B Economies in transition

South-Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgiaa

Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Montenegro

Serbia

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgiaa

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Republic of Moldova

Russian Federation

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

a Georgia officially left the Commonwealth of Independent States on 18 August 2009. However, its performance is discussed in the context of this group of countries for reasons of geographic proximity and similarities in economic structure.

146 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014

Table C Developing economies by regiona

Africa Asia Latin America

and the Caribbean

North Africa Southern Africa East Asia Caribbean

Algeria

Egypt

Libyab

Mauritania

Morocco

Sudan

Tunisia

Angola

Botswana

Lesotho

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

South Africa

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Brunei Darussalam

China

Hong Kong SARc

Indonesia

Malaysia

Myanmar

Papua New Guinea

Philippines

Republic of Korea

Singapore

Taiwan Province of China

Thailand

Viet Nam

Barbados

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Guyana

Haiti

Jamaica

Trinidad and Tobago

Central Africa Mexico and Central America

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Sao Tome and Prinicipe

Costa Rica

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

West Africa

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cabo Verde

Côte d’Ivoire

Gambia

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Togo

South Asia

Bangladesh

India

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

East Africa South America

Burundi

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Djibouti

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Kenya

Madagascar

Rwanda

Somalia

Uganda

United Republic of Tanzania

Argentina

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Western Asia

Bahrain

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syrian Arab Repuplic

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

a Economies systematically monitored by the Global

Economic Monitoring Unit of DPAD.

b The name of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya was officially

changed to Libya on 16 September 2011.

c Special Administrative Region of China.

147Country classification

Table D Fuel-exporting countries

Economies in transition

Developing countries

Latin America and the Caribbean Africa East Asia South Asia Western Asia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Russian Federation

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Colombia

Ecuador

Trinidad and Tobago

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Algeria

Angola

Cameroon

Chad

Congo

Côte d’Ivoire

Egypt

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Libya

Nigeria

Sudan

Brunei Darussalam

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Bahrain

Iraq

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

148 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014

Table E Economies by per capita GNI in 2012a

High-income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low-income

Australia

Austria

Bahrain

Barbados

Belgium

Brunei Darussalam

Canada

Chileb

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Equatorial Guinea

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hong Kong SARd

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Kuwait

Latviab

Lithuaniab

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Oman

Poland

Portugal

Qatar

Republic of Korea

Russian Federationb

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Taiwan Province of China

Trinidad and Tobago

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

United States

Uruguayb

Albaniab

Algeria

Angola

Argentina

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Bulgaria

China

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Gabon

Hungaryc

Iran, Islamic Republic

Iraqb

Jamaica

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Lebanon

Libya

Malaysia

Mauritius

Mexico

Montenegro

Namibia

Panama

Peru

Romania

Serbia

South Africa

Thailand

The former Yugoslav Republc of Macedonia

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Venezuela, RB

Armenia

Bolivia

Cameroon

Cape Verde

Congo

Côte d’Ivoire

Djibouti

Egypt

El Salvador

Georgia

Ghana

Guatemala

Guyana

Honduras

India

Indonesia

Lesotho

Mauritaniab

Moldova

Morocco

Nicaragua

Nigeria

Pakistan

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Philippines

São Tomé and Principe

Senegal

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Syrian Arab Republic

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

Yemen, Rep.

Zambia

Bangladesh

Benin

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Gambia, The

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Haiti

Kenya

Kyrgyz Republic

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mozambique

Myanmar

Nepal

Niger

Rwanda

Sierra Leone

Somalia

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zimbabwe

a Economies systematically monitored for the World Economic Situation and Prospects report and included in the United Nations’ global economic forecast. b Indicates the country has been shifted upward by one category from previous year’s classification. c Indicates the country has been shifted downward by one category from previous year’s classification. d Special Administrative Region of China.

149Country classification

Table F Least developed countries (as of November 2013)

Africa East Asia South Asia Western Asia Latin America & the Caribbean

Angola Benin Burkina Faso Burundi Central African Republic Chad Comoros Democratic Republic of the

Congo Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia Guinea Guinea-Bissau Lesotho Liberia

Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mozambique Niger Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Sudana

Sudan Togo Uganda United Republic

of Tanzania Zambia

Cambodiaa

Kiribatia

Lao People’s Democratic Republica

Myanmar Samoaa, b

Solomon Islandsa

Timor Lestea

Tuvalua

Vanuatua

Afghanistana

Bangladesh Bhutana

Nepal

Yemen Haiti

a Not included in the WESP discussion because of insufficient data. b Samoa will graduate from the list of the least developed countries in January 2014.

Table G Heavily indebted poor countries (as of September 2013)

Post-completion point HIPCsa Interim HIPCsb Pre-decision point HIPCsc

Afghanistan Benin Bolivia Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Congo Côte D’Ivoire Democratic Republic of the Congo Ethiopia Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti

Honduras Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mozambique Nicaragua Niger Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Togo Uganda United Republic of Tanzania Zambia

Chad Comoros

Eritrea Somalia Sudan

a Countries that have qualified for irrevocable debt relief under the HIPC Initiative. b Countries that have qualified for assistance under the HIPC Initiative (that is to say, have reached decision point), but have not yet reached completion point. c Countries that are potentially eligible and may wish to avail themselves of the HIPC Initiative or the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI).

150 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014

Table H Small island developing States

United Nations members Non-UN Members/Associate Members of the Regional Commissions

Antigua and Barbuda

Bahamas

Bahrain

Barbados

Belize

Cabo Verde

Comoros

Cuba

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Grenada

Guinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

Jamaica

Kiribati

Maldives

Marshall Islands

Mauritius

Nauru

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint. Lucia

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Samoa

São Tomé and Príncipe

Seychelles

Singapore

Solomon Islands

Suriname

Timor-Leste

Tonga

Trinidad and Tobago

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

American Samoa

Anguilla

Aruba

Bermuda

British Virgin Islands

Cayman Islands

Commonwealth of Northern Marianas

Cook Islands

Curacao

French Polynesia

Guadeloupe

Guam

Martinique

Montserrat

New Caledonia

Niue

Puerto Rico

Turks and Caicos Islands

U.S. Virgin Islands

Table I Landlocked developing countries

Landlocked developing countries

Afghanistan

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bhutan

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Central African Republic

Chad

Ethiopia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgystan

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Lesotho

Malawi

American Samoa

Anguilla

Aruba

Bermuda

British Virgin Islands

Cayman Islands

Commonwealth of Northern Marianas

Cook Islands

Curacao

French Polynesia

Mali

Republic of Moldova

Mongolia

Nepal

Niger

Paraguay

Rwanda

South Sudan

Swaziland

Tajikistan

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Turkmenistan

Uganda

Uzbekistan

Zambia

Zimbabwe