tim hw 4

Plan: Monday: read lecture notes, handout. Analyzing the problem. Tuesday: Set up meeting time with group mates for problem 1 and 2. Wednesday: assign tasks to each members and start problem 1 Tuesday: finish problem2 and accomplish group tasks Friday: Finish project

Prob 1

1.Define existing problem: clearly define the problem you are attempting to solve. Identify the real problems that need to be solved.

Problem1: What should Bill McKenzie do?

Problem2: How do you think the probability, cost, and revenue information used in this analysis were obtained?

2. Plan the treatment of the problem, i.e., the way in which you going to structure your analysis of the given information in order to solve the problem. Define the process (logical set of steps) for solving the problem by carefully addressing the following questions: What information is available for solving the problem? Lecture notes What assumptions need to be made to make the solution process manageable? Assuming that the only source for information needed has already been provided

3. Execute the plan: Apply the 6-steps decision analysis process

4. Check your work Is the work correct in every detail? I think so.

Are my assumptions reasonable? They are reasonable. All assuming that the information provided for the assignment is correct

In terms of the things I know, do the results make sense? Yes the results make sense and follow accurately with what I know today. 5. Learn and Generalize What have I found out? What does the result mean? How may the result be affected by my assumptions? Are the results good enough to act on, or must I refine the solution? I believe that my results are enough to put into action.

Prob 2 1.Define existing problem: clearly define the problem you are attempting to solve. Identify the real problems that need to be solved.

Problem1: Should you pursue the commercial development of Compound X?

Problem2: If you do pursue development, what value should You place on the project when comparing it to competing projects?

2. Plan the treatment of the problem, i.e., the way in which you going to structure your analysis of the given information in order to solve the problem. Define the process (logical set of steps) for solving the problem by carefully addressing the following questions: What information is available for solving the problem? Lecture notes What assumptions need to be made to make the solution process manageable? Assuming that the only source for information needed has already been provided

3. Execute the plan:

4. Check your work Is the work correct in every detail? I think so.

Are my assumptions reasonable? They are reasonable. All assuming that the information provided for the assignment is correct

In terms of the things I know, do the results make sense? Yes the results make sense and follow accurately with what I know today. 5. Learn and Generalize What have I found out? What does the result mean? How may the result be affected by my assumptions? Are the results good enough to act on, or must I refine the solution? I believe that my results are enough to put into action.

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