Article 1

1/7/20, 9:56 PMPrint

Page 1 of 3https://content.ashford.edu/print/Baker.6866.18.1?sections=ch14_s…=content&clientToken=292284d0-7b63-2313-94d2-1b32db6d3479&np=ch11

14.7 CAPACITY LEVEL ISSUES IN FORECASTING In the manufacturing industry, capacity levels relate to the production of, say, widgets. In the world of health care, capacity relates to services; that is, the ability to produce or provide specific healthcare services.

Space and Equipment Availability

The ability to provide services is automatically limited by the availability of both space and the proper equipment to provide certain specific services. Forecasts need to take a realistic view of these capacity levels.

Staffing Availability

Capacity is a tricky assumption to make in staffing forecasts. In some programs, particularly those in a startup phase, overcapacity (too much staff available for the amount of work required) is a problem. In some other organizations, under capacity (a chronic lack of adequate staff) is the problem. Forecasting assumptions, in the best of all worlds, take these difficulties into account. See the Mini-Case Study that demonstrates this problem of staffing in the context of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) federal program.

Example of Forecasting Maximum Service Capacity

Exhibit 14–1 (http://content.thuzelearning.com/books/Baker.6866.18.1/sections/ch14_sect1_7#ch14_exhibit1) illustrates the array of elements that should be taken into account when computing maximum capacity levels. This computation is important because your forecast should take maximum capacity into account. (Alternative assumptions can also be made, of course. See the sensitivity analysis discussion in a following chapter.)

Exhibit 14–1 Capacity Level Checkpoints for an Outpatient Infusion Center

Outpatient Infusion Center Capacity Level Checkpoints

2

(http://content.thuzelearning.com/books/Baker.6866.18.1/sections/ch14_sect1_9#ch14_ent2)

1/7/20, 9:56 PMPrint

Page 2 of 3https://content.ashford.edu/print/Baker.6866.18.1?sections=ch14_s…=content&clientToken=292284d0-7b63-2313-94d2-1b32db6d3479&np=ch11

# infusion chairs ……………………………… 3 chairs

# staff……………………………………………… 1 RN

# weekly operating hours ……………….. 40 hours

# of hours per patient infusion ………….. average 2 hours (for purposes of this example)

Work Flow Description

For each infusion the nurse must perform the following steps (generalized for this purpose; actual protocol is more specific):

■ Obtain and review the patient’s chart

■ Obtain and prepare the appropriate drug for infusion

■ Interview the patient

■ Prepare the patient and commence the infusion

■ Monitor and record progress throughout the ongoing infusion

■ Observe the patient upon completion of the infusion

■ Complete charting

Work Flow Comments

It is impossible for one nurse to start patients’ infusions in all three chairs simultaneously. Thus the theoretical treatment sequence might be as follows:

■ Assume one half-hour for patient number one’s Steps 1 through 4.

■ Once patient number one is at Step 5, the nurse can begin the protocol for

■ patient number two.

■ Assume another one half-hour for patient number two’s Steps 1 through 4.

■ Once patient number two is at Step 5, theoretically the nurse can begin the protocol for patient number three.

This sequence should work, assuming all factors work smoothly; that is, the appropriate drugs in the proper amounts are at hand, the patients show up on time, and no one patient demands an unusual amount of the nurse’s attention. (For example, a new patient will require more

1/7/20, 9:56 PMPrint

Page 3 of 3https://content.ashford.edu/print/Baker.6866.18.1?sections=ch14_s…=content&clientToken=292284d0-7b63-2313-94d2-1b32db6d3479&np=ch11

attention.)

Daily Infusion Center Capacity Level Assumption

Patient scheduling is never entirely smooth, and patient reactions during infusions are never predictable. Therefore, we realistically assume the following: Chair #1 = 3 patients per day, Chair #2 = 2 patients per day, and Chair #3 = 2 patients per day, for a daily total of 7 patients infused.

SUMMARY

In summary, the ultimate accuracy of a forecast rests on the strength of its assumptions.