• You, an analyst at the Animal Health Agency (AHA), must make a recommendation whether or not to ban imported pigs...

• You, an analyst at the Animal Health Agency (AHA), must make a recommendation whether or not to ban imported pigs due to a risk of importing a disease, porcine hoof blister (PHB), or to require that imported pigs be tested for the disease. ▫ With no ban, the probability of an outbreak is known with 90% confidence to be in the range [0.2%, 5%] and the cost of dealing with an outbreak is known to be $1,000,000 (which will ultimately be paid by the consumer). ▫ With a ban, there will be 0% probability of transmission, but the industry will experience increased costs that are estimated with 90% confidence to be in the range of [$1,000, $50,000]. (These costs will also be ultimately paid by the consumer.) ▫ You could also require a test that reduces the probability of an outbreak to [0.02%, 0.5%] (90% confidence), but increases costs by $10,000 (plus $1,000,000 in the event of an outbreak). • Your agency’s goal is to reduce the overall cost to the consumer ▫ Report