week5 mat540 strayer uni Quantitative Methods – MAT 540 Quiz solution

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

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·       Question 9

5 out of 5 points

·       Question 10

5 out of 5 points

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

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Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

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Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
 

 
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

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Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

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Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

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Consider the following demand and forecast.
 

 
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

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__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

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 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:  
 

 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
 
What is the expected yield of the crop?

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Consider the following graph of sales. 
 

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

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__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

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Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowlyto sudden changes in forecast errors?

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In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

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__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

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Consider the following graph of sales.
 
 

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

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A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

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The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. 
            
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

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An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.
 
            
 
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

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A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

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An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
 
                                            Economic Condition
                        Poor           Average       Good        Excellent
    Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)
           A               50                  75              20              30
           B               80                  15              40              50
           C           -100                 300             -50              10      
           D               25                  25              25              25  
 
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

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Consider the following decision tree. 
 

 
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.

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Consider the following probability distribution: 

Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?

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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 
            
 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

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This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
 
            
 
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

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The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : 
 

 
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
 

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Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 

 
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
 

 
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 
            
 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product 
 

 
 
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

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