Vermont invests about $4.5 million/year in anti-smoking efforts

Vermont invests about $4.5 million/year in anti-smoking efforts. Out of 100,000 VT high school students 17,600 smoke. In New Hampshire no money is spent on anti-smoking campaigns and 20,800 out of 100,000 HS students smoke. Using the Poisson distribution, can Vermont argue that their program has some positive effect?