STRAYER MAT 540 QUANTITATIVE METHODS MIDTERM EXAM

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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
True

False

Question 2

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
 True

False

Question 3

 An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

True

False

Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

True

False

Question 5

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

True

False

Question 6

 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

True

False

Question 7

 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

True

False

Question 8

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

True

False

 Question 9

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

 

 

Standard deviation

 

 

Range

 

 

The z-score (the standard score)

 

 

All of the above

Question 10

 Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

 

 

expected opportunity loss

 

 

expected value

 

 

expected value of perfect information

 

 

none of the above

Question 12

 In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

Answer

 

 

sampling from

 

 

running

 

 

integrating

 

 

implementing

Question 13

 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Answer

 

 

a limited number of possible outcomes

 

 

a uniform distribution

 

 

a detectable pattern

 

 

a detectable run of certain numbers
 

Question 14

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

   

Question 15

 A seed value is a(n)

Answer

 

 

steady state solution of a simulation experiment

 

 

number used to start a stream of random numbers

 

 

first run of a simulation model

  

analytic solution of a simulation experiment

Question 16

 Consider the following demand and forecast. 
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Question 17

  rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?

 

 

425

 

 

442

 

 

440

 

 

475

Question 18

of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Answer

 

 

dependent, dependent

 

 

independent, dependent

 

 

dependent, independent

 

 

independent, independent

Question 19

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Answer

 

 

.01

 

 

.10

 

 

.50

 

 

.90

Question 20

 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer

 

 

Cumulative error

 

 

MAD

 

 

MAPD

 

 

Average error

Question 21

Consider the following graph of sales.

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

 

 

Trend only

 

 

Trend plus seasonal

 

 

Seasonal only

 

 

None of the above

Question 22

 __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Answer

 

 

Qualitative methods

 

 

Regression

 

 

Time series

 

 

Quantitative methods

Question 23

 __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

 

 

Linear trend

 

 

Linear regression

 

 

Forecast demand

 

 

Linear equation

Question 24

 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

 

 

-1

 

 

 
 

 

1

 

 

-1 or 1

Question 25

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Question 26

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 27

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 28

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 29

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.                  
 
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
  
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Question 32

 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Question 33

 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Question 34

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Question 35

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

 
Question 36

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 37

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Question 38

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Question 39

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

Question 40

 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal

 

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