Seasonal and Trending Forecasting Exercise

Harley's Painting Co.
A Seasonal and Trending Forecasting Exercise

· For several years Harley has run his painting business in two venues: Twin Cities area
(from May - Oct) and the Ft. Myers area of Florida (from Nov to Apr). Harley doesn't
like snow or scorching heat very much.
· For the last three years, he has collected the number of monthly hours billed for painting, 
and being handy with Excel spreadsheets, he has compiled the following statistics. 

Billed Painting Hours
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Avgs Grwth
3 Yrs ago 138 144 143 129 114 130 139 145 144 130 114 129 1599 133
2 Yrs ago 142 146 147 132 117 133 143 147 148 133 145 132 1665 139 1.04
1 Yr ago 145 148 149 144 122 145 146 149 150 144 121 144 1707 142 1.03

Mo Total 425 438 439 405 353 408 428 441 442 407 380 405 Hard Values
Mo Avg 142 146 146 135 118 136 143 147 147 136 127 135 1657 138 1.033

Ssnl Indx 1.03 1.06 1.06 0.98 0.85 0.98 1.03 1.06 1.07 0.98 0.92 0.98 Forecast Values

This Year 1714.995 143 1.035

3) Do you see a pattern in the "Ssnl Indx" numbers? 
If you do see one, does it mean anything? If so, what?


4) In the Seasonal Indices what does 0.85 represent?
What does 1.06 represent?


5) Take a stab at forecasting the monthly numbers in the red row, then tell me how you did it.
(Don't waste yours and my time with a guess. In other words, show your work.

· Put your answers to the above questions either in this file or a Word document, 
save it with your team number in the filename and post it in the Dropbox under 
Project 2.