Directions: • In this project you will be using the States Data file that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects: • Steps for accessing the States Data file: 1. Open your Excel with PhStat2
Name:
Directions:
• In this project you will be using the States Data file that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:
• Steps for accessing the States Data file:
1. Open your Excel with PhStat2
2. Click File—Open
3. Select the States Data file
• Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.
• You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.
• Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.
1. Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas station. Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of the station and a number of marketing factors related to oil industry and demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table:
Size of Gasoline Station Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($)
Small $70,000 $30,000 -$30,000
Medium $110,000 $50,000 -$40,000
Large $170,000 $70,000 -$50,000
1. Develop a decision table for this decision.
2. What is the Maximax decision?
3. What is the Maximin decision?
4. What is the criterion of realism decision? Use α = 0.6.
5. Develop an Opportunity Loss Table
6. What is the Minimax Regret Decision?
2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table.
Year Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)
1 4
2 7
3 5
4 5
5 10
6 7
7 8
8 9
9 11
10 14
11 15
Use Excel QM to:
1. Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales in year 12.
2. Develop a 3-year weighted average to predict demand in year 12, in which sales in the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and sales in the two years prior to that are each given a weight of 1.
3. Develop a regression/trend line to estimate the demand for fertilizer in year 12.
4. Based on the three forecasts you have created, which forecast is the most accurate?
3. Kaplan College has decided to "wire" its campus. The first stage in this effort is to install the "backbone," i.e., to connect all the buildings. The table below gives the distances between the various buildings on campus in hundreds of feet.
Distances in Hundreds of Feet
From To
Building 1 Building 2 Building 3 Building 4 Building 5 Building 6
Building 1 3 7 5 5 4
Building 2 5 2 6 6
Building 3 5 4 4
Building 4 5 3
Building 5 4
Building 6
1. How should the buildings be connected to minimize the total length of cable?
2. What length of cable is required?
4. The following represents the distances in miles from a warehouse (node 1) to various cities in Montana. The major outlet store is located at node 7.
From Node To Node Distance
1 2 40
1 4 100
2 3 20
2 4 30
3 4 60
3 5 40
3 6 20
4 5 70
4 7 50
5 6 50
5 7 80
6 7 40
1. Find the shortest route and distance from Node 1 to Node 7.
5. The network of a city sewer system and their capacities are shown below. Remember that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity. For example, row 1 is the flow from node 1 to node 2 and row 2 is the reverse flow from node 2 to node 1. There are eight branches in this network.
From Node To Node Fluid Flow
1 2 150
2 1 100
1 3 0
3 1 150
1 4 300
4 1 300
1 5 150
5 1 100
2 4 300
4 2 200
3 4 250
4 3 300
3 5 300
5 3 250
4 5 100
5 4 0
Determine the maximum flow (in hundreds of gallons of water per minute) from node 1 to node 5
6. The governor of Michigan believes that the state can improve the state’s crime rate if the state can reduce the college debt carried by its citizens and if they can increase the percent of the population covered by health insurance.
1. Using the States Data Set and PHStat, create the multiple regression prediction equation.
2. Predict the crime rate for Michigan if the college debt were $25,000 and the percent not covered by insurance was 10?
7. A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decisions) and states of nature (size of crowd).
Stocking Decision Large Crowd ($) Average Crowd ($) Small Crowd ($)
Large Inventory $22,000 $12,000 -$2,000
Average Inventory $15,000 $12,000 $6,000
Small Inventory $9,000 $6,000 $5,000
If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd, determine:
1. The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).
2. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
Submitting Your Project
• Save your project in a location that you will remember and with your full name. When you are ready to submit your project, click on the Dropbox and complete the steps below:
• Click the link that says, “Submit an Assignment.”
• In the “Submit to Basket” menu, select Unit 7 Project.
• In the “Comments” field include your name.
• Click the “Add Attachments” button.
• Follow the steps listed to attach your Word Document.
• You should revisit the Dropbox to view any helpful feedback your instructor has and to retrieve your graded project.
• Make sure that you save a copy of your submitted project.
=====================
Name:
Directions:
• In this project you will be using the States Data file that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:
• Steps for accessing the States Data file:
1. Open your Excel with PhStat2
2. Click File—Open
3. Select the States Data file
• Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.
• You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.
• Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.
1. Allen Machines specializes in developing weed-harvesting equipment that is used to clear small lakes of weeds. Allen Machines is contemplating the construction of a machine that would harvest weeds on narrow rivers and waterways. The activities and time in weeks necessary to build one of these experimental machines are shown in the table below.
Activity Immediate Predecessors Time in Weeks
A none 6
B none 5
C A 3
D A 2
E B 4
F B 6
G C,E 10
H D,F 7
1. What is the minimum possible time required for completing the project?
2. What is the latest possible time that Activity D may be started without delaying the completion of the project?
3. What is the latest finish time for Activity F?
4. What is/are the critical path(s)?
2. The following is the activity and associated costs for the renovation of the local high school football stadium. The times are in weeks.
Activity Immediate Predecessor Time Cost ($)
A - 4 25,000
B - 5 30,000
C A 3 15,000
D B 8 50,000
E B 2 12,000
F C, D 3 15,000
G C, D 7 46,000
H E, F 2 20,000
1. What is the critical path for this project?
2. How much of the total budget would be spent in Week 8 (Period 8) with the earliest start budget?
3. Precision Manufacturing has a government contract to produce stainless steel rods for use in military aircraft. Each rod is required to be 20 millimeters in diameter. Each hour, random samples of size n = 4 rods are measured to check process control. Five hours of observations yielded the following:
Diameter
Time Rod 1 Rod 2 Rod 3 Rod 4
9 A.M. 19.8 20.4 19.9 20.3
10 A.M. 20.1 20.2 19.9 19.8
11 A.M. 19.9 20.5 20.3 20.1
Noon 19.7 19.8 20.3 20.2
1 P.M. 19.7 20.1 19.9 19.9
1. Construct the xbar-chart and the R-chart.
2. Is the process in control?
4. Modern Electronics specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds the equipment that produces the components. Modern Electronics is considering building a new facility but the estimated profits would be impacted by the type of market that develops. The probability for a strong market is 0.3; for a fair market is 0.5; and for a poor market is 0.2. You are responsible for advising the president of Modern Electronics on the type facility that should be built or to not build a facility at all. The table shows the estimated profits under each market and for each size facility.
Estimated Profits
Strong Market Fair Market Poor Market
Build a large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000
Build a medium-size facility 300,000 129,000 -100,000
Build a small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000
Do not build a facility 0 0 0
1. Provide a recommendation to the president that maximizes profits
2. Provide a second recommendation to the president that minimizes regret.
5. Consulting income at Kaplan Associates for the period February – July is shown in the table below. Assume that the initial forecast for February is $65,000. Use Exponential smoothing to forecast August’s income.
Month Income ($1,000)
February 70.0
March 68.5
April 64.8
May 71.7
June 71.3
July 72.8
1. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.2.
2. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.5.
3. Which forecasting constant is best in this situation?
6. Johnson Construction Company is in the process of installing power lines to a large housing development. The company wants to minimize the total length of wire used, which would minimize the company’s cost. The housing development is shown below. Each house has been numbered, and the distances between houses are given in hundreds of feet.
1. What do you recommend to Johnson Construction Company?
7. The storm drains in the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, have been upgraded following the devastating floods of 2008. The network of storm drains and the capacities are shown below. Determine the maximum flow (in hundreds of gallons of water per minute) from node 1 to node 5. Remember that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity.
From Node To Node Fluid Flow
1 2 250
2 1 100
1 3 100
3 1 150
1 4 400
4 1 400
1 5 150
5 1 200
2 4 300
4 2 200
3 4 250
4 3 300
3 5 300
5 3 250
4 5 300
5 4 0
8. From the States Data Set the following output for the Income in 2000 and for the Income in 2010 was created.
1. Which variable has the greatest relative variation?
9. You are a consultant working for Kaplan Consulting. The U.S. Department of Labor has requested assistance in evaluating the impact of economic stimulus on the unemployment rate. From the States Data Set the following t test was conducted to answer the question:
“Has there been a significant reduction in the national unemployment rate between January and June?”
1. What is the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses?
2. What is your level of alpha (α)?
3. What is your conclusion?
4. What is your answer to the question?
10. The Governor of a southern state has asked Kaplan Consulting to determine if the state were able to increase the percentage of its population with a Bachelor’s Degree to 50%, what might be the expected median household income based on 2010 data? Here is the output from the Regression procedure from Excel.
1. What would be the predicted median household income if the percentage of the population in the state were 50% or 50?
Submitting Your Project
• Save your project in a location that you will remember and with your full name. When you are ready to submit your project, click on the Dropbox and complete the steps below:
• Click the link that says, “Submit an Assignment.”
• In the “Submit to Basket” menu, select Unit 9 Project.
• In the “Comments” field include your name.
• Click the “Add Attachments” button.
• Follow the steps listed to attach your Word Document.
• You should revisit the Dropbox to view any helpful feedback your instructor has and to retrieve your graded project.
• Make sure that you save a copy of your submitted project.
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