In a city there is a plan to build an airport. There are two alternate locations for the airport

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You are given the probability table below.

 

 

B

 

A

0.204

0.476

0.68

0.006

0.314

0.32

 

0.21

0.79

1

 

If P(B|A) =0.3 and P(B|)=0.02, what are these probabilities: 

P(|A) = P(A)/P(A) =  0.476/0.68 = 0.7

 

P(|) =P()/P() = = 0.314/0.32= 0.98125

 

P(B)= 0.21

 

P()= 0.79

 

P(A|B) = P(AB) /P(B) = 0.204/0.21 = 0.97

 

P(|B)= P(B)/P(B) = 0.006/0.21=0.02857

 

P(A|)=P(A)/P()= 0.476/0.79=0.6

 

P(|)=P()/P()=0.314/0.79 = 0.40 

 

In a city there is a plan to build an airport. There are two alternate locations for the airport. An investor is planning to build a hotel at one of these locations. Depending on the selected location of the airport the present value (PV) of the hotel will vary. The investor would like to also evaluate the options of buying both locations or not investing in any of these locations at all. The following table provides the total cost and the PV for each location.

 

Location 1

Location 2

Total Cost of Land, Construction, etc

$18*

$12

PV of hotel if airport is built here

$31

$23

PV of hotel if airport is built at the other location

$6

$4

 

*Millions of Dollars

 

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  • 12 years ago
In a city there is a plan to build an airport. There are two alternate locations for the airport
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