BUSINESS MODELING 1250
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Business Modeling: Final estimated model that should be used for prediction. Fit of the estimated model ( explanatory power, significance, regression model assumptions ). Using excel Add ins - regression Calls Received Ads Place Previous Week Calls Received the Previous Week Airline Bookings Calls Received 1.000000 Ads Place Previous Week 0.58435892 1.000000 Calls Received the Previous Week 0.654482969 0.709017466 1.00000 Airline Bookings 0.533973192 0.360694798 0.219988054 1.00000 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.768833636 R Square 0.591105161 Adjusted R Square 0.437769596 Standard Error 86.185825 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 85904.27855 28634.75952 3.854977555 0.056364409 Residual 8 59423.97145 7427.996431 Total 11 145328.25 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -269.8384166 216.5685514 -1.245972302 0.248024888 -769.2463912 229.5695581 -769.2463912 229.5695581 X Variable 1 4.952788772 20.69902397 0.23927644 0.81690744 -42.77924605 52.68482359 -42.77924605 52.68482359 X Variable 2 0.834047965 0.523880632 1.592057261 0.150036794 -0.374022939 2.042118868 -0.374022939 2.042118868 X Variable 3 0.088664991 0.054832052 1.617028492 0.144533989 -0.037777948 0.21510793 -0.037777948 0.21510793 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.766928186 R Square 0.588178843 Adjusted R Square 0.49666303 Standard Error 81.54701992 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 85479.00188 42739.50094 6.427073364 0.018458183 Residual 9 59849.24812 6649.916458 Total 11 145328.25 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -248.0359548 185.8927667 -1.334295891 0.214881125 -668.5546076 172.4826981 -668.5546076 172.4826981 X Variable 1 0.920800393 0.357800027 2.573505655 0.030014685 0.111400501 1.730200286 0.111400501 1.730200286 X Variable 2 0.092569427 0.049530224 1.868948266 0.094456853 -0.019475725 0.204614579 -0.019475725 0.204614579 Residual Mean 0 Standard Error 21.29327112 Median -13.46176276 Standard Deviation 73.76205487 Sample Variance 5440.840738 Kurtosis -0.580177709 Skewness 0.371627727 Range 233.2924249 Minimum -113.5015713 Maximum 119.7908536 Count 12 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.766928186 R Square 0.588178843 Adjusted R Square 0.49666303 Standard Error 81.54701992 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 85479.00188 42739.50094 6.427073364 0.018458183 Residual 9 59849.24812 6649.916458 Total 11 145328.25 Coefficients Sample Average Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -248.0359548 185.8927667 -1.334295891 0.214881125 -668.5546085 172.4826989 -668.5546085 172.4826989 Calls Received the Previous Week 0.920800393 402.25 0.357800027 2.573505655 0.030014685 0.111400499 1.730200287 0.111400499 1.730200287 Airline Bookings 0.092569427 3107 0.049530224 1.868948266 0.094456854 -0.019475725 0.204614579 -0.019475725 0.204614579 Forecast 409.97
11 years ago
