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Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

Facility

Demand Options

Probability

Actions

Expected Payoffs

     

Large

Low Demand

0.4

Do Nothing

($10)

 

Low Demand

0.4

Reduce Prices

$50

 

High Demand

0.6

 

$70

     

Small

Low Demand

0.4

 

$40

 

High Demand

0.6

Do Nothing

$40

 

High Demand

0.6

Overtime

$50

 

High Demand

0.6

Expand

$55



Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:

 

Low Demand

0.4($40)=$16

High Demand

0.6($55)=$33

  

Build Large:

 

Low Demand

0.4($50)=$20

High Demand

0.6($70)=$42

 

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62

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