political science . electoral votes? winner takes all ? electoral college

ELECTING THE PRESIDENT

PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES (February-June)

Electing the President is a very complicated process that starts as early as a year before the General election. Candidates announce their intention on running and compete for their party’s nomination by first running in the Primaries and Caucuses that States hold between the months of February and June. In many ways, the Primary election is a “weeding-out” process for each of the parties. Sometimes several candidates are running within a party, however, as each state has a primary, the competition is narrowed to the point in which only one or two candidates remain by the time the last Primary is held in June. If there is an incumbent president running, it is likely that he will not be challenged and there will not be primary elections in his party because the party is conceding that he is their choice. Unfortunately, for the 2016 election California’s primary is in June. One has to question why such lightly populated, “flea bitten” states (Iowa and New Hampshire); should play such a prominent role in a very important decision. (2016 Iowa Caucus date: February 1st and New Hampshire Primary February 9th). If each of the states held their primary elections on the same day, larger states would likely get more attention than the less populated states and this would be to the disadvantage of smaller states. However, with California’ primary election late in June, most of the candidates are no longer running.

The Presidential nomination process is undemocratic for various reasons:

(1) It is possible for a candidate to lose the party’s nomination despite winning more popular votes (the “People’s choice”) and more states overall coming into the nomination convention. The rules require that in order to win the party’s nomination outright through the primaries, the candidate must win a majority of the overall delegates. For the Republicans in 2016, if no candidate had won a majority before the convention, it was possible for the convention to nominate someone other than the front-runner. Donald Trump complained that this was undemocratic and it was the equivalent to stealing the election. In some cases, individual delegates selected from various states are not bound to vote how they originally pledged to vote and candidates work behind the scenes to try to convince them to vote for them at the convention.

(2) Each party and each state has their own rules on allocating delegates in their states that how the overall delegate count is awarded may not always reflect the popular vote from the states. Some states permit the candidate to win all of the delegates based on the overall vote and some states award delegates based on the percentage of votes each candidate received in the state.

(3) Smaller and lesser populated states, that do not reflect the country’s diversity, have their elections early on in the process and thus have the power to eliminate candidates from contention before the more populated states had a chance to vote. So, while there may have been a dozen or more candidates who started the contest, it is possible that the field was narrowed to two or three candidates by the time the more populated states (California and New York) even weighed in.

A Caucus, which very few states use, is an election that is held by party members at the precinct, district, and state level. The party members at the different levels select delegates who are pledged to various candidates within the party. For example in Iowa, residents of the state meet in precinct caucuses in all of the 1,784 precincts and elected delegates to the corresponding county conventions. They have 99 counties in the state, so they had 99 conventions. These county conventions then select delegates for both Iowa’s Congressional District Convention and State Convention, which then choose the delegates for the presidential nominating conventions. See how the election works: http://www.senate.gov/reference/resources/pdf/RL30527.pdf

Primaries are state elections in which the states’ voters are asked to choose from all those candidates who are seeking the nomination within their party. Some states have an “open primary” in which voters can cross over and vote for a candidate in another party; other states have “closed primaries,” in which voters must vote for candidates within their own party. Although the average voters are involved initially in choosing the candidate that they want to represent their party, delegates will be selected and they will cast the decisive vote at the National Nominating Conventions. The number of delegates, their selection, and how they vote in a given state, is a complex process usually dictated by state and party rules that may vary from state to state. Some states bind their delegates to vote the way in which their state voted; whereas other states allow the delegates attending the conventions to vote however they want. Some state parties require that the candidate who wins the most votes win all the delegates from the state, however, other states reward delegates based upon proportional representation. Most states are allocated delegates based upon the population and voter turnout in the previous election. Some delegates are comprised of special delegates who may be un-pledged party leaders or party officials ("PLEOs"). The media refers to these delegates as “Super Delegates.” These delegates are free to cast their votes at the convention (see below) as they see fit! One wonders how parties could support a system that would permit a candidate who wins more popular and delegate votes to lose the election by “super delegates” high jacking democracy!

How does California award delegates? (Pretty confusing stuff here)

“CA has been allocated 546 (could change + or - 1 or 2) which includes 71 Superdelegates (Governo Brown, Senators Boxer & Feinstein, House members and DNC Members which includes the Chair & Vice Chair of each State Party), 317 district level delegates distributed in each of the 53 congressional districts (4 to 9 per district), then there are 158 total allocated statewide. If candidate A gets 55% of the state vote, then that candidate would get 87 and candidate B would get 71. CA also gets 40 Alternates for a total Delegation of 586 and with spouses, partners, over 1,000 going to Philly.”

For California Republicans there are a total of 172 delegates. There are elections in each of the 53 congressional districts and the winner of the most votes wins three delegates. The candidate who wins the most votes statewide gets an additional 10 delegates and the state party chairman and Republican National Committee members total an additional 3 delegates

To learn more about national and California’s delegate selection click on the following:

https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/

http://www.cadem.org/our-party/national-convention

http://www.ccoa.ca.gov/whcoa_delegates.htm

NATIONAL NOMINATING CONVENTIONS (After Primaries)

After the Primaries and Caucuses are over, each of the parties hold a National Nominating Convention. Aside from mostly boring, partisan speeches, and three-days of partying, the Convention is where the delegates gather to officially nominate the candidate that will represent their party in the General Election in November. It is possible if no candidate enters the convention with a majority of the delegate vote that there may be an “open” or “contested” convention in which delegates at the convention will decide the contest. Typically, the delegates must vote how they pledged to vote entering the convention on the first ballot, however, if no candidate wins a majority vote on the first ballot, then delegates are free to vote how they please. The convention is also the time in which the presidential candidate accepts the nomination and so does his/her vice-presidential “running-mate.” From this point on each of the candidates now focuses on defeating the “real enemy,” the nominee from the other party!

Each of the candidates starts the campaign to capture the electoral votes in the General election in November.

http://convention.gop/about Cleveland July 18-21, 2016.

http://www.demconvention.com/ Philadelphia July 25th-28th, 2016

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

WE SHOULD HAVE A DIRECT POPULAR VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT, BUT WE DON’T! The Electoral College is an archaic process and a disaster waiting to happen. It is almost as archaic and undemocratic as allowing a few cardinals select the Pope and announcing it by spewing smoke from a chimney!

The Constitution calls for electors to vote for the president based upon the vote in each of the states and the District of Columbia (DC). The drafters of the constitution did not have enough faith in the people directly electing the president so they created a process that allocates electors to each state and requires that they cast the official vote for the president. Some two hundred years later, the people still do not directly elect the president and it is undemocratic because it is possible for the candidate who wins more of the national popular vote (People’s vote) to lose the election to the candidate who won less popular votes, but won a majority of the electoral vote (270).

ALLOCATION OF ELECTORS

Each state is allocated an elector for every U.S. Senator and House of Representatives that state has in their national legislature. For example, California has 55 electors because they have 2 U.S. Senators (like all other states) and, as a result of the 2000 Census, 53 House of Representatives. Alaska, on the other hand, only has 3 electors because they only have 1 House of Representative. As one can see, the system is based upon the principles established under the Connecticut Compromise, “representation should be based upon population.”

Nationally, the total number of electors is 538. This number is based upon the total number of U.S. Senators (100) and the total number of House of Representatives (435), plus 3 electors that are allocated to the District of Columbia.

TOTAL NUMBER OF ELECTORS (BY STATE)

NATIONWIDE CA Tex WY

435 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 53 36 1

100 US SENATORS 2 2 2

3 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

538 TOTAL (270=MAJORITY) 55 38 3

REPRESENTATION NOT BASED UPON POPULATION:

As of 2010, it was estimated that California had a population of approximately 37,253,956 (increased by 10%) Wyoming’s population is a mere 563,626 and they have 3 electors despite being smaller than a California congressional district (average 704,566). The electoral vote for California is 55. Wyoming has one elector for every 187,875 people and California has one per every 677,344. Or, if California had one elector for every 187,875 citizens the electoral vote for California would be 198. So much for “One person One Vote!” http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/electoral-college/

FOR EACH STATE:

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm

HOW NUMBER OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PER STATE IS DETERMINED:

http://www.census.gov/population/apportionment/

GENERAL ELECTION (NOVEMBER)

WINNER TAKE ALL

According to the election rules, the candidate who wins a “plurality” (most) of the states’ popular vote wins all of the states’ electoral votes. No matter how close the state vote, if a candidate wins by one vote, that candidate wins all of the state’s electoral votes. As the example below illustrates, it is possible to have 65% of the state vote against a candidate, yet the candidate who wins 35% of the vote wins 100% of the 55 electoral votes.

Example (Assume California with 55 electors)

"WINNER TAKES ALL" (NOV. GEN. ELECTION)

POPULAR VOTE POPULAR (%) ELECTORAL VOTES

(D)CLINTON/BIDEN 35% 55(D)

(R)TRUMP /CHRISTIE 34% 0(R)

(3RD)UNKNOWN/MORE UNKNOWN 31% 0(3rd)

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION:

Instead of the winner take all, a state could decide to give an electoral vote based on the vote in each congressional district in that state and award two additional electoral votes based on the overall states’ popular vote.

In the 2016 election only Nebraska and Maine had proportional representation the rest of the states and D.C. had the winner take all rule in effect.

SELECTION OF INDIVIDUAL ELECTORS

The party of the candidate who wins the most popular votes selects the individual electors in each state. They are loyal state party members who will be bestowed this usually ceremonial privilege.

THE ELECTORS ARE NOT BOUND (DECEMBER)

Although the media can safely predict the winner of the election once they know the results of the popular vote in a state, the electors officially do not vote until the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. While they almost, always follow the popular vote, some states do not bind the electors, and therefore electors can vote however they want, even for someone who is not a candidate! In the 2,000 election, a Democrat elector from the District of Columbia abstained from voting instead of casting a vote for Gore. In 1976, Ronald Reagan, a Republican, had won the popular vote in Washington, however, one of the electors voted for Gerald Ford, also a Republican, but had not received his party’s nomination. A similar incident occurred with a democrat elector in 1998 in the state of West Virginia. In this case, the elector did not vote for Michael Dukakis, but instead voted for his running mate, Lloyd Bentsen. While the prospect of electors ignoring the popular vote appears undemocratic, in the case in which a candidate wins more of the national popular votes, but not the electoral votes, perhaps an elector casting their vote to reflect the national popular vote would be preferred. As the next section illustrates, some contend that Gore would have won the 2000 election if 4 electors changed their vote or if he won Florida’s vote (or if he had only won his home state of Tennessee)!

WINNING THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, BUT LOSING THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL VOTE

Al Gore won the national popular vote in the 2000 Presidential election (Gore 50,992,335 [48.38%] Bush 50,455,156 [47.87%] Nader 2,882,897 [2.74%]), however, lost the electoral vote (Gore 266 Bush 271). This was the latest example of a candidate winning more of the national popular votes, but losing the election because of the electoral vote.

This scenario is made possible because of the “winner take all rule.” As seen in the 2000 election, close state elections, particularly in largely populated states, can help contribute to this result. The travesty of this result is that the candidate that the “people” wanted will not be the President. In 1888, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote, but Benjamin Harrison became president because he won the electoral vote by 65 more votes. This scenario is certainly not representative of the people's will nor is it what the drafters of the constitution would have wanted.

Interestingly, it is possible for a candidate to win by one vote in the 11 largest states and lose by 100% of the votes in the remaining 39 states and win the election. This is possible because the 11 largest states add up to more than the magical number needed -270! Also, in the case in which there are three viable candidates, it is possible that neither of the candidates wins a majority of the popular vote in any of the states or a majority of the national popular vote. Due to the “winner take all rule,” however, under these circumstances it is still possible for a candidate to win a majority of the electoral votes. With states turning away from the “winner take all” rule it will become less likely for a candidate to win the presidency without winning the national popular vote.

SO WHY DO WE VOTE:

For states with the winner take all rule in effect or for the two with proportional representation, state voters will determine who wins their states electoral votes. With campaigns knowing what states they know are either going blue or red, some elections have come down to a few critical “undecided” or “swing” states. Even in these elections, all votes count because they determine who receives the states’ electoral vote and it is also important for the ultimate winner to win more national popular vote so that he or she can point to a mandate by the people to do the things he or she campaigned for during the election.

PROCESS INVOKED IF NO CANDIDATE WINS A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE: HOUSE VOTES (JANUARY) As mentioned the electors vote in December, however, the House of Representatives don’t officially tally their votes until January 6th the following year. In the event that no candidate wins a majority of the electoral vote, instead of declaring the candidate that received the most popular votes the winner, the 12th Amendment requires that the House of Representatives choose between the three candidates that received the most electoral votes by January 20th. Although there are 435 House of Representatives, the vote is done on a state by state basis with each of the 50 states receiving one vote with the candidate receiving 26 states becoming president. However, if the House of Representatives from a state cannot decide, that state would not receive a vote. For example, if the 53 House of Representatives representing California split 26 votes for the Democrat candidate and 26 for the Republican candidate and one for a third candidate, California would not receive a vote. It does appear more reasonable that in the case of a tie vote, they should turn to the state’s popular vote or allow the Governor to cast the tie-breaking vote. Under this process, a state can go without representation; representation is not based upon population; and the House members can choose the candidate with the least amount of electoral votes and the least amount of popular votes.

Although at first glance one might assume that the party that controls a majority of congress has the advantage in voting for the candidate of their party, because the election is on a state by state basis and each state receives one vote, this is not the case. The way in which the individual representatives are divided throughout the states will also determine if a particular party has an advantage or not. For example, it may be that overall the Republicans have a majority, but if there were several large states that are predominantly republican; this would dilute their overall power. For example, if all of California’s representatives were republican the republican candidate would receive one vote. However, if Alaska’s one Representative was a democrat this vote would cancel out the 53 votes in California. Finally, although overall the House vote will be driven by partisanship, the way in which the individual districts and states voted would also have considerable importance.

In 1801, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr received the same number of electoral votes and the House of Representatives finally elected Jefferson after 36 ballots. In 1825, neither John Quincy Adams, nor Andrew Jackson, nor William H. Crawford received a majority of the electoral vote and Adams was then elected by a House vote.

IF NO CANDIDATE WINS THE HOUSE VOTE

If the House of Representatives cannot choose a candidate, the U.S. Senate will vote for an “Acting President” from the top two candidates running for Vice-President that received the most electoral votes. Each senator will receive one vote, with the candidate who receives a majority vote of 51 becoming the winner. If there is a tie vote in the Senate, the current Vice-President has the power to cast the tie-breaking vote. If the House of Representatives cannot decide by January 20th, the “Acting President” will become the New President. If the U.S. Senate conducts a Filibuster and the House of Representatives cannot decide by January 20th, the Speaker of the House will become the New President.

EXAMPLE If no candidate won a majority of the electoral vote in 201

IF THE HOUSE CAN'T DECIDE? IF THE SENATE CAN’T DECIDE?

Popular vote Candidate Electoral vote House U.S. Senate

More Clinton/Biden(D) 269 25 50

Less Trump/Christie(R) 169 25 50

Least ?/?(G) 100

Interestingly, based upon the results above, it would have been possible for Biden to break the tie in the Senate by voting for himself. Of Course Clinton would like Biden to appoint Clinton as his Vice-President and then ask Biden to resign so that she would become President and then appoint Biden as her Vice-President. Right? Oddly enough, it would be possible for the House to Elect Clinton as President and the Senate to elect Rubio as Vice-President. How awkward would that be? Lastly it is also possible for a party to intentionally bypass the Senate vote, through the Filibuster. Imagine if their candidate did not finish in the top two; the House cannot break their deadlock; and if the Speaker of the House is in their party. Right?

If the above scenario happened, representation is not based upon population and it is possible for someone to become President without receiving any popular votes. Lastly, partisan politics could raise its ugly head and dismiss the will of the people.

In sum, we vote because it is our privilege and right as Americans to ensure a peaceful transition of power ever since George Washington. While there are potential issues with the Electoral College, the will of the people must be expressed at the polls!