Statistics Assignment ( Only Question 2)

  

Question 2 – [50 marks].

You have been promoted and are now employed by Comfort Care at Stargazer Hotel. A new Chief Executive for the chain has made it clear that hotels not performing well, face the threat of closure. Your manager Mr. Cox is worried about this because he thinks Stargazer Hotel has declining occupancy levels, based on his observations of the last three quarters (see below). 

He has given you the task of analysing some data with the hope that his impressions are incorrect. He has provided you with the following quarterly data of occupancy levels (%) for the past few years:

   

A graph of this data has been produced – see below:

                    

All of this data is in your provided spreadsheet

(a)  

i. Using this graph, determine the model to use and explain your choice. You need to copy in the graph to show how you arrived at this answer.

ii. Using the provided spreadsheet, you will see that the trend has already been calculated. Use this and your model choice to calculate the seasonal variation, then the average seasonal variation. Briefly explain to Mr. Sweaty what each of the average seasonal variation values represents.

[12 marks]

(b)  

i. Draw and label 3 projected trend lines on your graph and put a copy of this graph into your report.

ii. Use the values that you have read from these lines to produce 3 different forecasts for the remainder of 2017. Put these results (forecasts ONLY) in a suitable table in your report.

[8 marks]

(c)  

i. Write an assessment of the accuracy of your forecasts including an identification of at least 4 random factors that may affect cover levels. 

ii. Write an overall conclusion of your analysis that addresses Mr. Cox’s opinion that the occupancy levels are declining. Clearly explain why you either agree or disagree with him.

[15 marks]

(d) The following data has been collected re the different types of customers staying at Stargazer Hotel. Construct a suitable graph to show this data, and explain your choice of graph. Also construct a graph(s) that is (are) unsuitable and clearly explain why. All graphs to be copied into your report.

   

2016

Families

Groups

Other

 

Q1

250

65

52

 

Q2

405

130

95

 

Q3

575

145

106

 

Q4

290

105

80

[10 marks]

Spelling, grammar and general presentation including the spreadsheet model with appropriate use of formulae.

[5 marks]