Due 11/12
see attached
please look at rubic
guide
instructions
3 days ago 55
ResearchPaperSimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisAssignmentInstructions1.docx
BrentCrudeOilWorksheet.xlsx
ResearchPaper-SimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisGradingRubric1.pdf
ResearchPaperSimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisAssignmentInstructions1.docx
PADM 702
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Instructions
Overview
Another way to analyze fiscal data over time is via Time Series Analysis. Time Series Analysis enables public administrators and policy analysts to examine values of a variable over equally spaced intervals of time (e.g., income figures, monthly or yearly). Using Times Sries Analyses, administrators and analysts can discern patterns in the values that then enable them to forecast future values based on historical and existing patterns.
A time series plot allows an analyst to look for (1) outliers and sudden shifts in data patterns and (2) long-term increase or decrease in the data values. A trend plot also will show whether the data pattern is linear or nonlinear as the time series plot. Then, the question to be asked is, why?
Instructions
· To successfully complete this assignment, please refer to the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Guide found on the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment page.
· For this assignment, you will compute and interpret a Simple Time Series Analysis called “Exponential Smoothing” and write a four-page report stating your findings, including chart(s).
· Once the plot is completed, you will write a four-page report, including chart(s), interpreting the findings.
· This is a Doctoral-level research assignment designed to test your ability to carefully research, effectively organize, and concisely communicate a nuanced understanding of the concepts and issues raised in the assignment. While the minimum page limit is short (as is often the case in public policy/public administration briefings), students are expected to craft efficient, highly substantive papers. You are expected to comport with the highest writing, research, and ethical standards.
The paper must be in current APA format with 1-inch margins and 12-pt Times New Roman font. You must also include a title page and reference page. You must include citations to a sufficient number of appropriate professional, scholarly, or other appropriate sources to fully support your assertions and conclusions (which will likely require more than the minimum number of citations); each paper must include a minimum of 5 sources, not including the course textbooks, assigned readings, and the Bible.
Plagiarism in any form is strictly prohibited and may result in failure of the assignment, failure of the course, and/or removal from the program. It is your responsibility to ensure that you fully understand what constitutes the various forms of plagiarism and to avoid all forms of plagiarism.
Note: Your assignment will be checked for originality via the Turnitin plagiarism tool too
BrentCrudeOilWorksheet.xlsx
Sheet1
| Average Closing Price,Brent Crude Oil | |
| Year | Prices |
| 1990 | $14.91 |
| 1991 | $18.23 |
| 1992 | $23.76 |
| 1993 | $20.04 |
| 1994 | $19.32 |
| 1995 | $17.01 |
| 1996 | $15.86 |
| 1997 | $17.02 |
| 1998 | $20.64 |
| 1999 | $19.11 |
| 2000 | $12.76 |
| 2001 | $17.90 |
| 2002 | $28.66 |
| 2003 | $24.46 |
| 2004 | $24.99 |
| 2005 | $28.85 |
| 2006 | $38.26 |
| 2007 | $54.57 |
| 2008 | $65.16 |
| 2009 | $72.44 |
| 2010 | $96.94 |
| 2011 | $61.74 |
| 2012 | $79.61 |
| 2013 | $111.26 |
| 2014 | $111.57 |
| 2015 | $108.56 |
| 2016 | $98.97 |
| 2017 | $53.03 |
| 2018 | $45.13 |
| 2019 | $54.71 |
| 2020 | $71.34 |
| 2021 | $64.28 |
| 2022 | $41.96 |
| 2023 | $70.86 |
| 2024 | $91.69 |
| 2025 | $77.00 |
ResearchPaper-SimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisGradingRubric1.pdf
Criteria Ratings Points
Content 23 to >20 pts
Advanced
• All key elements of the assignment are covered thoroughly and in a substantive way. Student provides a well-researched, fully developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Content is thoroughly, comprehensively accurate and exhibits a nuanced rather than superficial understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Major points are stated clearly and are supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student employs sound, reasoned discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
20 to >15 pts
Proficient
• Most key elements of the assignment are covered and in a substantive way. Student provides a mostly developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Most content is comprehensively accurate and exhibits an adequate understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Most points are adequately stated and are supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student mostly employs sound, reasoned discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
15 to >0 pts
Developing
• Inadequate coverage of key elements of the assignment. Student provides an inadequately developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Content is inadequate and not presented comprehensively or accurately. Exhibits an inadequate understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Major points are inadequately stated and are not supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student employs inadequate discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 23 pts
Development 22 to >19 pts
Advanced
• Includes meaningful and thorough use of source material and analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is thorough and timely for the topic. • Thoroughly includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is thorough and clear.
19 to >14 pts
Proficient
• Mostly includes meaningful and adequate use of source material and analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is adequate and timely for the topic. • Adequately includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is adequate and clear.
14 to >0 pts
Developing
• Includes inadequate use of source material and applies very little analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is inadequate and not timely for the topic. • Inadequately includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is inadequate and vague.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 22 pts
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
Criteria Ratings Points
Organization 13 to >11 pts
Advanced
• The introduction provides sufficient and thorough background on the topic and previews major points. • Ideas flow in a logical and thorough sequence. • Paragraph transitions are both present, thorough and logical, and direct the flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is organized into a discussion flowing thoroughly from concept/term to concept/term and includes sufficient introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper, rather than a mere list of terms.
11 to >8 pts
Proficient
• The introduction provides sufficient and adequate background on the topic and previews major points. • Most ideas flow in a logical and adequate sequence. • Paragraph transitions are mostly present, adequate, and logical and direct the flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is mostly organized into a discussion flowing from concept/term to concept/term and includes adequate introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper, rather than a mere list of terms.
8 to >0 pts
Developing
• The introduction inadequately provides background on the topic and does not clearly preview major points. • Ideas do not flow in an adequate sequence. • Paragraph transitions are inadequately presented and lack a direct flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is not organized into a discussion and inadequately flows from concept/term to concept/term. Presents inadequate introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 13 pts
Graphical Illustration
12 to >10 pts
Advanced
Demonstrates superior craftsmanship
10 to >7 pts
Proficient
Demonstrates competent craftsmanship
7 to >0 pts
Developing
Demonstrates inconsistent craftsmanship
0 pts
Not Present
/ 12 pts
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
Criteria Ratings Points
Format & APA
11 to >9 pts
Advanced
• The paper includes title page, reference page . • The reference page(s) contain(s) complete, properly formatted citations in current APA format for all support utilized (at least 5 sources). • The paper follows current APA format guidelines. • The paper is written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and has 1” margins. The work is original, giving credit to all borrowed ideas and quotations.
9 to >7 pts
Proficient
• The paper includes title page, reference page • The reference page(s) contains mostly complete, properly formatted citations in current APA format for all support utilized (at least 5 sources). • The paper follows current APA format guidelines. • The paper is mostly written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and has 1” margins. The work is mostly original, giving credit to all borrowed ideas.
7 to >0 pts
Developing
• The paper does not include title page, reference page • The reference page(s) is/are incomplete. Contains improperly formatted citations. • The paper does not follow current APA format guidelines. • The paper is not written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and lacks 1” margins. The work is not original and lacks giving credit to all borrowed ideas.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 11 pts
Grammar & Spelling
11 to >9 pts
Advanced
• Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed. • Spelling is correct. • Sentences are complete, clear, and concise. • Sentences are well-constructed with consistently strong and varied structure. • Sentence transitions are present and direct the flow of thought. • Words used are precise and unambiguous. • The paper employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
9 to >7 pts
Proficient
• Most rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed. • Most spelling is correct. • Most sentences are complete, clear, and concise. • Most sentences are well-constructed with consistently strong and varied structure. • Most sentence transitions are present and direct the flow of thought. • Most words used are precise and unambiguous. • The paper mostly employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
7 to >0 pts
Developing
• Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are inadequately followed. • Many spelling errors distract. • Many sentences are incomplete, unclear, and not concise. • Many sentences are poorly-constructed. • Few sentence transitions are present to direct the flow of thought. • Many words used are imprecise and ambiguous. • The paper poorly employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 11 pts
Page Length 8 to >7 pts
Advanced
Four double-spaced pages of content.
7 to >3 pts
Proficient
Two to three, double-spaced pages of content.
3 to >0 pts
Developing
One page or less of content.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 8 pts
Total Points: -
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
ResearchPaperSimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisAssignmentInstructions1.docx
PADM 702
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Instructions
Overview
Another way to analyze fiscal data over time is via Time Series Analysis. Time Series Analysis enables public administrators and policy analysts to examine values of a variable over equally spaced intervals of time (e.g., income figures, monthly or yearly). Using Times Sries Analyses, administrators and analysts can discern patterns in the values that then enable them to forecast future values based on historical and existing patterns.
A time series plot allows an analyst to look for (1) outliers and sudden shifts in data patterns and (2) long-term increase or decrease in the data values. A trend plot also will show whether the data pattern is linear or nonlinear as the time series plot. Then, the question to be asked is, why?
Instructions
· To successfully complete this assignment, please refer to the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Guide found on the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment page.
· For this assignment, you will compute and interpret a Simple Time Series Analysis called “Exponential Smoothing” and write a four-page report stating your findings, including chart(s).
· Once the plot is completed, you will write a four-page report, including chart(s), interpreting the findings.
· This is a Doctoral-level research assignment designed to test your ability to carefully research, effectively organize, and concisely communicate a nuanced understanding of the concepts and issues raised in the assignment. While the minimum page limit is short (as is often the case in public policy/public administration briefings), students are expected to craft efficient, highly substantive papers. You are expected to comport with the highest writing, research, and ethical standards.
The paper must be in current APA format with 1-inch margins and 12-pt Times New Roman font. You must also include a title page and reference page. You must include citations to a sufficient number of appropriate professional, scholarly, or other appropriate sources to fully support your assertions and conclusions (which will likely require more than the minimum number of citations); each paper must include a minimum of 5 sources, not including the course textbooks, assigned readings, and the Bible.
Plagiarism in any form is strictly prohibited and may result in failure of the assignment, failure of the course, and/or removal from the program. It is your responsibility to ensure that you fully understand what constitutes the various forms of plagiarism and to avoid all forms of plagiarism.
Note: Your assignment will be checked for originality via the Turnitin plagiarism tool too
BrentCrudeOilWorksheet.xlsx
Sheet1
| Average Closing Price,Brent Crude Oil | |
| Year | Prices |
| 1990 | $14.91 |
| 1991 | $18.23 |
| 1992 | $23.76 |
| 1993 | $20.04 |
| 1994 | $19.32 |
| 1995 | $17.01 |
| 1996 | $15.86 |
| 1997 | $17.02 |
| 1998 | $20.64 |
| 1999 | $19.11 |
| 2000 | $12.76 |
| 2001 | $17.90 |
| 2002 | $28.66 |
| 2003 | $24.46 |
| 2004 | $24.99 |
| 2005 | $28.85 |
| 2006 | $38.26 |
| 2007 | $54.57 |
| 2008 | $65.16 |
| 2009 | $72.44 |
| 2010 | $96.94 |
| 2011 | $61.74 |
| 2012 | $79.61 |
| 2013 | $111.26 |
| 2014 | $111.57 |
| 2015 | $108.56 |
| 2016 | $98.97 |
| 2017 | $53.03 |
| 2018 | $45.13 |
| 2019 | $54.71 |
| 2020 | $71.34 |
| 2021 | $64.28 |
| 2022 | $41.96 |
| 2023 | $70.86 |
| 2024 | $91.69 |
| 2025 | $77.00 |
ResearchPaper-SimpleTimeSeriesAnalysisGradingRubric1.pdf
Criteria Ratings Points
Content 23 to >20 pts
Advanced
• All key elements of the assignment are covered thoroughly and in a substantive way. Student provides a well-researched, fully developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Content is thoroughly, comprehensively accurate and exhibits a nuanced rather than superficial understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Major points are stated clearly and are supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student employs sound, reasoned discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
20 to >15 pts
Proficient
• Most key elements of the assignment are covered and in a substantive way. Student provides a mostly developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Most content is comprehensively accurate and exhibits an adequate understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Most points are adequately stated and are supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student mostly employs sound, reasoned discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
15 to >0 pts
Developing
• Inadequate coverage of key elements of the assignment. Student provides an inadequately developed analysis of each element of the assignment. • Content is inadequate and not presented comprehensively or accurately. Exhibits an inadequate understanding of the terms and concepts assigned. • Major points are inadequately stated and are not supported by appropriate professional and scholarly literature and/or logic. Student employs inadequate discussion, description, explanation, and evaluation of assigned terms and concepts.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 23 pts
Development 22 to >19 pts
Advanced
• Includes meaningful and thorough use of source material and analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is thorough and timely for the topic. • Thoroughly includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is thorough and clear.
19 to >14 pts
Proficient
• Mostly includes meaningful and adequate use of source material and analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is adequate and timely for the topic. • Adequately includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is adequate and clear.
14 to >0 pts
Developing
• Includes inadequate use of source material and applies very little analytical reasoning to elaborate upon the topics or themes. • Research is inadequate and not timely for the topic. • Inadequately includes the required quality and quantity of cited sources to support positions. The context and purpose of the writing is inadequate and vague.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 22 pts
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
Criteria Ratings Points
Organization 13 to >11 pts
Advanced
• The introduction provides sufficient and thorough background on the topic and previews major points. • Ideas flow in a logical and thorough sequence. • Paragraph transitions are both present, thorough and logical, and direct the flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is organized into a discussion flowing thoroughly from concept/term to concept/term and includes sufficient introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper, rather than a mere list of terms.
11 to >8 pts
Proficient
• The introduction provides sufficient and adequate background on the topic and previews major points. • Most ideas flow in a logical and adequate sequence. • Paragraph transitions are mostly present, adequate, and logical and direct the flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is mostly organized into a discussion flowing from concept/term to concept/term and includes adequate introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper, rather than a mere list of terms.
8 to >0 pts
Developing
• The introduction inadequately provides background on the topic and does not clearly preview major points. • Ideas do not flow in an adequate sequence. • Paragraph transitions are inadequately presented and lack a direct flow of thought throughout the paper. • Paper is not organized into a discussion and inadequately flows from concept/term to concept/term. Presents inadequate introductory, conclusory, and connecting mechanics to make the assignment a research paper.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 13 pts
Graphical Illustration
12 to >10 pts
Advanced
Demonstrates superior craftsmanship
10 to >7 pts
Proficient
Demonstrates competent craftsmanship
7 to >0 pts
Developing
Demonstrates inconsistent craftsmanship
0 pts
Not Present
/ 12 pts
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
Criteria Ratings Points
Format & APA
11 to >9 pts
Advanced
• The paper includes title page, reference page . • The reference page(s) contain(s) complete, properly formatted citations in current APA format for all support utilized (at least 5 sources). • The paper follows current APA format guidelines. • The paper is written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and has 1” margins. The work is original, giving credit to all borrowed ideas and quotations.
9 to >7 pts
Proficient
• The paper includes title page, reference page • The reference page(s) contains mostly complete, properly formatted citations in current APA format for all support utilized (at least 5 sources). • The paper follows current APA format guidelines. • The paper is mostly written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and has 1” margins. The work is mostly original, giving credit to all borrowed ideas.
7 to >0 pts
Developing
• The paper does not include title page, reference page • The reference page(s) is/are incomplete. Contains improperly formatted citations. • The paper does not follow current APA format guidelines. • The paper is not written in 12-pt Times New Roman font and lacks 1” margins. The work is not original and lacks giving credit to all borrowed ideas.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 11 pts
Grammar & Spelling
11 to >9 pts
Advanced
• Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed. • Spelling is correct. • Sentences are complete, clear, and concise. • Sentences are well-constructed with consistently strong and varied structure. • Sentence transitions are present and direct the flow of thought. • Words used are precise and unambiguous. • The paper employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
9 to >7 pts
Proficient
• Most rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed. • Most spelling is correct. • Most sentences are complete, clear, and concise. • Most sentences are well-constructed with consistently strong and varied structure. • Most sentence transitions are present and direct the flow of thought. • Most words used are precise and unambiguous. • The paper mostly employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
7 to >0 pts
Developing
• Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are inadequately followed. • Many spelling errors distract. • Many sentences are incomplete, unclear, and not concise. • Many sentences are poorly-constructed. • Few sentence transitions are present to direct the flow of thought. • Many words used are imprecise and ambiguous. • The paper poorly employs authoritative, persuasive, statesmanlike voice.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 11 pts
Page Length 8 to >7 pts
Advanced
Four double-spaced pages of content.
7 to >3 pts
Proficient
Two to three, double-spaced pages of content.
3 to >0 pts
Developing
One page or less of content.
0 pts
Not Present
/ 8 pts
Total Points: -
Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Grading Rubric
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