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 ForecastingCOLLAPSE

When forecasting, it is important for economists, managers, and decision makers to understand that there is no perfect way or method in order to determine with certainty how one or more specific changes will affect the economy, sales of a specific product, or the quantity demanded. But, with the correct utilization of the correct tools, we hope to get a very close estimate of what to reasonably expect assuming all variables are accounted for. The panel consensus method draws on many experts in order to brainstorm different possibilities, narrow down into several options, and then finally end up with a mutual consensus of a likely outcome. This method draws on the empirical belief that if many experts are in the room, research and data is not necessarily needed as all of the information needed is being sourced by the experts in the room. The Econometric Method on the other hand relies primarily on past data in order to create an econometric method which aims to help economists determine exactly what may happen dependent on a change in a varied factor. This method draws on research and theory in order to create a tool. I believe that it is important to both consult experts but also use historical data in order to obtain a general understanding of what has happened in the past.