Assignment

Scenario: You will help Karen, the owner and operator of Vantage Restaurant, develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance.

Steps:

1. Perform an analysis of the sales data.
2. Prepare a report that summarizes your findings in five pages maximum, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
   • A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.
   • Analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate seasonal indexes for each month and comment on the high and the low seasonal sales months. Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Explain.
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   • Deseasonalize the time series. Does there appear to be any trend in the deseasonalized time series?
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     Using the time series decomposition method, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.
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   • Using the dummy variable regression approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.
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   • Provide summary tables of your calculations and any graphs in the appendix of your report.