Week 8 final

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Assignment 8

American Military University

ISSC630

29 May 2022

Question one

All of the OPM court case defendants have been found guilty, and the trial has closed. As part of the agreement, they all agreed to identify the Chinese Central Government as the perpetrator of the attack. Consequently, identifying the Chinese government as the perpetrator will result in various consequences. First, it will provide the impression that a bold statement is being sent to the entire globe, and it will act as a template for future approaches to comparable challenges. Due to the fact that the Chinese have already disputed the allegations and emphasized their innocence, they will respond swiftly to the revelation (Gootman, 2016). This will result in an avalanche of counter-accusations. The establishment of multinational coalitions will also be a possible outcome. All of China's allies will support it in this attempt, whereas the United States' allies will denounce China and cast doubt on its reputation.

The Far East, particularly China, has already been implicated in espionage attempts in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Therefore, there is a possibility that all of China's espionage victims will join forces. The United States will respond to any espionage attacks by putting in place its own countermeasures, as all other countries do. Significant technological advancements will also be made to prevent a repetition of similar disasters. As a result, digital hostilities between China and the United States will intensify, likewise applicable to their allies.

Cyberwar is not merely a potential but a fact. The cyber conflict has emerged as a new form of human conflict. This is because every industrialized nation engages in espionage for various reasons. Every nation views espionage as a serious trespass, and the only response is always counterespionage. This gives rise to a significant conflict that finally escalates into a full-scale cyberwar. These conflicts culminate in diplomatic conflicts that heighten tensions between nations.

In terms of technology, weapons, and information, every country aspires to be better than the next. The only way to achieve dominance is to build better technology than your competitors, and to do so; you must first understand the scope of your competitors' technology. No single country will publicly reveal its technological achievements and levels, and espionage is the only way to make such discoveries. Cyber battles are sparked by espionage, and hostilities always result in alliances.

An unprecedented technical arms race will be comparable to the Cold War. Due to the constant competition between countries in terms of technological advancement, this is the case. This will need the creation of cutting-edge countermeasures. National military capabilities can be improved by having one national technological leader in place, says Austin (2016). This is highly reminiscent of the Cold War era's push for military dominance. New advanced technologies such as quantum computing and anti-satellite warfare will be at the forefront of the technological arms race. This is due to the perception that quantum computing is the only cybersecurity solution.

As a result, many countries, allies, and adversaries will invest in it. Numerous countries, including the “United Kingdom, the European Union, Russia, China, Japan, and the United States of America”, have made significant investments in developing quantum technology (Wallden & Keshafi, 2019). Other major technological companies, including “Intel, Microsoft, IBM, and Google, have established quantum hardware and software development labs” (Wallden and Keshafi, 2019). This suggests that the technology arms race has begun, and the future contains even more unexpected developments. Breakthroughs in quantum technology will propel technological growth to unprecedented heights, rendering current technologies obsolete.

If quantum technology becomes a reality, the Internet of Things, social engineering, and other associated technologies will inevitably decline. This is due to the impression that the complexity and power of quantum technologies are much superior to contemporary technology, which includes the Internet of Things and social engineering. The potency and fault-tolerance of quantum technology will, if not render IoT technologies completely unusable, at least reduce their utility. This is because it will be a viable offensive and defensive cybersecurity solution, elevating cyber warfare to a new level. Positively, it will facilitate the efficient transmission of data and information and the rapid resolution of extremely complicated problems.

Question two

Even when international relations policies permit naming and shaming, it is not always appropriate. First, naming and shaming can affect a country's reputation. When a nation's reputation is in jeopardy, it will turn to any form of retaliation because it cannot tolerate humiliation (Terman, 2017). According to (Bawden, 2016), public shaming has been met with suspicion, indicating that certain nations are uncomfortable with it. There is no assurance that naming and shaming would coerce compliance or induce regret.

Consequently, its usefulness is questionable. Furthermore, it can severely backfire. To name and shame may be detrimental if the leaders of the target country claim that the report is an attempt to intimidate them or a hostile act. As a result, the narrative will shift to one of witch-hunting and the targeted nation will gain some support. It does not matter whether international relations allow it, because naming and shaming is not appropriate.

References

Austin, G. (2016). Shaping the Cyber Arms Race of the Future. ADM. (https://dokumen.tips/documents/shaping-the-cyber-arms-race-of-the-future-shaping-the-cyber-arms-race-of-the-future.html?page=1).

Bawden, Tom. ‘COP-21: Paris deal far too weak to prevent devastating climate change, academics warn’, Independent, 8 Jan. 2016, http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cop21-paris-deal-fartooweakto-prevent-devastating-climate-change-academics-warn-a6803096.html.

Gootman, S. (2016, October). OPM Hack: The Most Dangerous Threat to the Federal Government Today. Journal of Applied Security Research, 11(4), 517-525. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2016.1211876

Terman, R. (2017). Rewarding resistance: Theorizing defiance to international norms. Unpublished Manuscript.

Wallden, P., & Kashefi, E. (2019). Cybersecurity in the quantum era. Commun. ACM, 62(4), 120.