Operations Forecasting
a. to e.
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Single Exponential Smoothing |
Exponential Smoothing with Trend |
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Month (t) |
Demand |
Three-Month Moving Average |
Absolute Deviation |
Three-Month Weighted Moving Average |
Absolute Deviation |
Ft |
Absolute Deviation |
Ft |
Tt |
FITt |
Absolute Deviation |
|
1 |
61 |
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66.000 |
|
65.000 |
1.700 |
66.700 |
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2 |
64 |
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64.500 |
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64.990 |
1.358 |
66.348 |
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3 |
67 |
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64.350 |
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65.644 |
1.217 |
66.861 |
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4 |
66 |
64.000 |
2.000 |
64.6 |
1.400 |
65.145 |
0.855 |
66.903 |
1.225 |
68.128 |
2.128 |
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5 |
71 |
65.667 |
5.333 |
66.0 |
5.000 |
65.402 |
5.598 |
67.490 |
1.098 |
68.587 |
2.413 |
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6 |
70 |
68.000 |
2.000 |
68.2 |
1.800 |
67.081 |
2.919 |
69.311 |
1.243 |
70.554 |
0.554 |
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7 |
73 |
69.000 |
4.000 |
69.6 |
3.400 |
67.957 |
5.043 |
70.388 |
1.209 |
71.597 |
1.403 |
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8 |
74 |
71.333 |
2.667 |
71.4 |
2.600 |
69.470 |
4.530 |
72.018 |
1.294 |
73.311 |
0.689 |
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9 |
74 |
72.333 |
1.667 |
72.8 |
1.200 |
70.829 |
3.171 |
73.518 |
1.335 |
74.853 |
0.853 |
|
10 |
83 |
73.667 |
9.333 |
73.8 |
9.200 |
71.780 |
11.220 |
74.597 |
1.284 |
75.881 |
7.119 |
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11 |
84 |
77.000 |
7.000 |
77.6 |
6.400 |
75.146 |
8.854 |
78.016 |
1.711 |
79.727 |
4.273 |
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12 |
86 |
80.333 |
5.667 |
81.6 |
4.400 |
77.802 |
8.198 |
81.009 |
1.967 |
82.976 |
3.024 |
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MAD |
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4.407 |
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3.933 |
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5.599 |
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2.495 |
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Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend forecast component appears to be the best method. |