Bus Planning

Summary

2 period moving average

Forecasting		Moving averages - 2 period moving average
Num pds	3
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 11; Problem size @ 5 by 3			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38
Period 2	40
Period 3	41		39	2	2	4	04.88%
Period 4	37		40.5	-3.5	3.5	12.25	09.46%
Period 5	45		39	6	6	36	13.33%
			Total	4.5	11.5	52.25	27.67%
			Average	1.5	3.8333333333	17.4166666667	09.22%	before forecast
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
Period 6	50		47.5	2.5	2.5	6.25	05.00%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting

Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39 40.5 39

Time

Value

Enter the past demands in the data area

3 period moving average

Forecasting		Moving averages - 3 period moving average
Num pds	3
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 11; Problem size @ 5 by 3			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38
Period 2	40
Period 3	41
Period 4	37		39.6666666667	-2.6666666667	2.6666666667	7.1111111111	07.21%
Period 5	45		39.3333333333	5.6666666667	5.6666666667	32.1111111111	12.59%
			Total	3	8.3333333333	39.2222222222	19.80%
			Average	1.5	4.1666666667	19.6111111111	09.90%
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
Period 6	50		44	6	6	36	12.00%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting

Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39.666666 666666664 39.333333333333336

Time

Value

Enter the past demands in the data area

Exponential Smoothing

Forecasting		Exponential smoothing
Alpha	0.3
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 13; Problem size @ 5 by 1			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38		38	0	0	0	0.00%
Period 2	40		38	2	2	4	5.00%
Period 3	41		38.6	2.4	2.4	5.76	5.85%
Period 4	37		39.32	-2.32	2.32	5.3824	6.27%
Period 5	45		38.624	6.376	6.376	40.653376	14.17%
			Total	8.456	13.096	55.795776	31.29%
			Average	1.6912	2.6192	11.1591552	06.26%	Before forecast
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
					SE	4.3126084914
Period 6	50		40.5368	9.4632	9.4632	89.55215424	18.93%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting

38 40 41 37 45 38 38 38.6 39.32 38.624000000000002

Time

Value

Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.

Trend Adj Exp Smoothing

Forecasting		Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
Alpha	0.3
Beta	0.7
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 14; Problem size @ 5 by 1			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Smoothed Forecast, Ft	Smoothed Trend, Tt	Forecast Including Trend, FITt	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38		38		38	0	0	0	00.00%
Period 2	40		38	0	38	2	2	4	05.00%
Period 3	41		38.6	0.42	39.02	1.98	1.98	3.9204	04.83%
Period 4	37		39.614	0.8358	40.4498	-3.4498	3.4498	11.90112004	09.32%
Period 5	45		39.41486	0.111342	39.526202	5.473798	5.473798	29.9624645448	0.1216399556
	Next period		41.1683414	1.26083958	42.42918098
			Total			6.003998	12.903598	49.7839845848	31.32%
	41.1683414		Average			1.2007996	2.5807196	9.956796917	06.26%
						Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
							SE	4.0736545666
	Next period		42.050929106	0.6178113942	42.6687405002
			Total							After forecast
			Average
						Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
							SE	0

Forecasting

Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Smoothed Forecast, Ft 38 38 38.599999999999994 39.61399999999999 39.41485999999999

Time

Value

Enter alpha and beta (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.