Research paper for Expert system(AI) for decision making support

ISSN 0097-8078, Water Resources, 2020, Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 731–743. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2020. Russian Text © The Author(s), 2020, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2020, Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 546–559.

RESTORATION OF THE VOLGA

Development of a Prototype of an Expert System for Decision Making Support in Optimizing Measures Aimed to Protect Water Objects

from Diffuse Pollution: Case Study of the Volga Basin M. A. Kozlovaa, *, N. V. Kirpichnikovaa, T. B. Faschevskayaa, V. O. Polyanina, and O. O. Borodina

aWater Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333 Russia *e-mail: mblshok@mail.ru

Received February 26, 2020; revised March 21, 2020; accepted March 22, 2020

Abstract—A prototype of an expert system for decision-making support in optimizing measures aimed to pro- tect pilot water objects from diffuse pollution in the Volga basin was developed based on special expedition studies carried out in 2018–2019, generalized results of earlier long-term studies, improved methodological approaches, and specially developed GIS. The prototype consists of fine interrelated blocks, which can be used to evaluate the anthropogenic load from different types of pollution sources (point and diffuse) and the parameters that characterize this pollution, and describe the methods and results of diffuse runoff calculation as well as possible water protection measures, and their efficiency. The prototype of the expert system allows the users (decision makers) to evaluate the extent of diffuse pollution and to choose the priority measures to reduce its effect on pilot water objects.

Keywords: diffuse pollution sources, prototype of expert system, water protection measures, efficiency of measures DOI: 10.1134/S0097807820050115

INTRODUCTION The Volga runs in the most developed region of

Russia. Its basin contains, fully or partly, 38 constitu- ent entities of RF; its population is more than 40% of that of the country, and it accounts for more than 40% of the industry and ~45% of agriculture in Russia.

The cause of anthropogenic load onto the drainage basin is numerous pollution sources, which are com- monly divided into two classes: controlled (lumped) and noncontrolled. The total contribution of the latter to the pollution of water objects in the Volga basin can be considerable [2, 4, 5] and comparable with the con- tribution of point sources. At the same time, the water protection strategy of Russia has been always based on reconstruction, the construction of treatment facili- ties, and the improvement of methods for treatment of industrial and domestic wastes, i.e., controlled sources. Unfortunately, the disregard of an important class of pollution sources on the drainage basin, not subject to state control made it impossible to improve water quality in streams and the ecosystems of water bodies in the recent decades. Uncontrolled pollution sources mostly determine the diffuse character of pol- lutant inputs into hydrographic network.

Leading research organizations in Russia under overall scientific guidance of Water Problems Insti- tute, Russian Academy of Sciences, carried out pri-

mary studies at pilot water objects in the Volga basin. The pilot objects were chosen so as to give a most detail characteristic of the current factors and sources of diffuse pollution that have an adverse effect on nat- ural water quality (Fig. 1; Table 1). Considering the wideness of the study theme, the vastness of the terri- tory involved, and the short terms of the study, it was of great importance to promptly analyze the most rep- resentative drainage basins and the geographic condi- tions to enable the future extension of the acquired experience, knowledge, and methods to the remaining part of the Volga Basin and to form a basis for the implementation of the appropriate water protection measures.

One of the results of these studies was the creation of a prototype of an expert system for decision making support (ESDMS) in the optimization of measures aimed to protect pilot water objects from diffuse pol- lution. The analysis of the materials generalized in the prototype suggests the conclusion that the main sources of diffuse pollution of the Volga include

urban and other populated territories; industrial sites and territories of their aerogenic

effect; objects involved in agricultural production; burial grounds for domestic and industrial wastes.

731

732 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 1. Map of Volga basin with pilot objects.

Pilot objects:

1 2

3

4

5 6

6 7

7

8

8 9

10

11

Arkhangelsk

FINLAND

Onega L.

Ladoga L.

St. Petersburg

Novgorod

Tver Medveditsa

Rybinsk Res. Volga

Vologda S ukh

ona

Kostroma

Ivanovo

Un zh

a

Kirov

Vladimir

Vyatka

Chep tsa

K am

a

Syktyvkar Kama

Perm’

Chusovaya Ekaterinburg

Tyumen

Kurgan

Chelyabinsk

Moscow

Mo scow

Smolensk

BELARUS

UKRAINE

MODLOVA

Belgorod

Orel Bryansk

Kaluga Tula

Ryazan O ka

Kl ya

z’m a

O ka

Velkuga Cheboksary Kazan

Ioshkar-Ola Naberezhnye Chelny

Izhevsk

B elaya Ufa

Belaya

Orenburg

Kazakhstan

Samara

Bo l.

Ir gi

z

Uk’yanovsk

Saransk

Su ra

Penza

Tesha

Tambov Lipetsk

Voronezh Kursk

Saratov

Volgograd

Volga

Rostov-on-Don Elista

Astrakhan

Pilot objects

Volga basin boundary

RF border

Rivers

Lakes, reservoirs

1 Ivankovo Reservoir drainage basin 2 Meliorated territory in the Yakhroma basin 3 Territory of the objects of industrial and consumption

waste disposal (exemplified by solid waste disposal areas Shcherbinka and Kulakovo, Moscow oblast)

4 Urban territory (exemplified by Rostov City, Yaroslavl oblast)

5 Water management segment of the Volga near Burnakovskaya lowland, Nizhny Novgorod City

6 Small rivers in the basin of the Cheboksary Reservoir 7 Catchment areas of the basin of the Kuibyshev Reservoir 8 Water management areas in the basin of the Kama R.

subject to the effect of large-scale chemical production 9 Small rivers in the Chusovaya R. basin

10 Meliorated territory in the basin of the Malyi Karaman R. 11 Water objects of agricultural territories in the lower Volga

Scale 1 : 10200000

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROTOTYPE OF EXPERT SYSTEM

In a general sense, the expert system is meant to be an analytical software environment used by experts in some area of expertize to operate information in order to give recommendations or to solve a problem [3]. ESDMS are aimed to automatize procedures for the analysis of problem situations and to choose the best decisions. The functionality of such systems, in partic- ular, includes [6]:

making calculations to substantiate alternatives based on various mathematical methods and models with the use of expert estimates of competent persons;

creating tools for simulating problem situations and making decisions under uncertainty and risk;

formation and support of data and knowledge bases required to describe and choose problems, models, and methods for decision making, calculations, and formation of reports;

support of collegiality in decision making and sub- stantiation of decision variants based on consolidation of expert opinions;

implementation of the procedure for searching a method for decision making by the user by selecting an answer (from a proposed set) to questions presented by

the system regarding elements of decision making problem;

presenting access to the system for end users with the use of thin-client technology (via internet browser and web server).

Note that the developed prototype of the expert system for pilot water objects in the Volga basin includes some features of ESDMS given above; how- ever, at this stage, it is a simpler system, intended not for making calculations following proposed proce- dures, but to inform users (decision makers) about the results of calculations with specified parameters, reflecting the current situation in the territory of pilot water objects in the Volga basin.

The developed prototype of ESDMS is made in the form of an Internet site, convenient to use by end users of the system and enabling closer interaction between experts and expert organizations, supplementing and correcting the available database.

The block scheme of the prototype of expert system is developed in HTML language, designed for the cre- ation of Web-pages. HTML language is interpreted by a program for visiting Web-sites (browser) and reflected as a document in a form convenient for the user. Unified HTML templates have been developed for each pilot drainage basin to present either text or

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 733

Fig. 2. Example of filling the section “Physiographic Characteristics” for Block 1. Mosaic landscape structure of the Kud’ma R. basin, indirectly characterizing the level of anthropogenic load onto this territory (according to data of the Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences).

44°20′ 44°40′ E44°00′ 43°40′ 43°20′

55°40′

56°00′ N

Volodarskii district

Urban district

Urban

Kstovo Novolikeevo

Urban district Bor

Volga

Zaprudnoe

Prokoshevo

Dzerzhinskii Dudenevo

Bogorodskii district

Pavllovskii district

district

district

0 5 10 20 km

Berezovka Bogorodsk

Tsentral’nyi

Laksha

Prorva

Kililei ka

Be ssi

ka

Ma ida

n

M ian

g Pe ch

et

Ryazanka

Ve lik

aya

Sh ar

ga lk

a Il

en '’

Ve lik

ay a

Cheverlya

Pa va

K ud’m

a

K ud’m

a

Setchuga Setchuga

Shem lei

Turaleika

Sh ile

ksh a

Burevestnik

Doskino Okskii

Kusakovka Blizhnee BorisovoNovinki Druzhnyi

Kud’ma оdistrict Nizhny Novgorod

Sheloksha

Chernukha Podlesovo

Dubrava

Vyazovka

Bol. Mokroe Punda

Seme tka

Shelok shonka

Pe kst

er

Kud

Maida nka

Ts ed

en

Yazen Yaze

n

O zerka

Shaevka

Dubr ovka

Kud Kud’m

a Staraya S

taraya

U nk

or

Vypolzovo

Kremenki

Nizhegorodets

Inyutino

OrankiKhvoshchevka

Selitba

Sosnovskiy

Arzamasskii

district Vadskii

district Bol’shemurashkinskii

district Kstovskii

district Lyskovskii

Rumyantsevo Kuzhutki

Tepelevo

Dlal’nekonstantinovskii Dal’nee Konstantinovo

Tatarskoe Mal. Pitsa

Surovatikha

Surovatikha Sarlei

district

Bogoyavlenie

Kamenki

Kud’ma R. Drainage basin

Forest

Plowed land Agricultural lands with compacted soil

Ravine network

Low-rise construction Territory with a large proportion

of impermeable surfaces Populated localities

Administrative division of Nizhegorodskaya oblast

graphic information. Specific data are introduced into the templates only by expert organizations (users). This guarantees that the knowledge base contains the most complete, reliable, and actual data.

The developed prototype of ESDMS consists of five blocks: the characteristic of an object and its drainage basin, water pollution sources, estimates of diffuse pollution, water protection measures, and the efficiency of water protection measures.

THE STRUCTURE OF BLOCK 1. CHARACTERISTIC OF THE OBJECT

AND ITS DRAINAGE BASIN

The general description of the object contains data on the location of the water object, its morphometric, hydrographic, and hydrological characteristics, major data on the economic development level of the drain- age basin and land use types, review map, and photo- graphs.

Physiographic characteristics include maps of soils and relief, hydrological sections, maps of landscape type and land use, etc. (Fig. 2).

State monitoring points―a list of weather stations and hydrological gages and maps of their location are given (Fig. 3).

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

Hydrometeorological characteristics―normal annual or long-term meteorological and hydrological characteristics are given, for example, precipitation, temperature, air humidity, water discharge rates, etc. (Fig. 4).

Hydrochemical characteristics―data on water chemistry (concentrations of nitrites, nitrates, phos- phates, carbonates, etc.) of pilot water bodies are given based on data of state monitoring or own expedition studies of the users (Fig. 5).

Additional information includes photographs of the pilot object and its characteristics that do not fit the sections listed above.

Thus, exhaustive data have been collected for all pilot objects, which have different scales (the drainage basin vary from 7 to 41 km2), natural zones (taiga, mixed forest, forest steppe, steppe, and semidesert) and geographic conditions (the objects are situated in Astrakhan, Volgograd, Kirov, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Saratov, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tver, and Ulyanovsk oblasts, Perm krai, and the republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan). The con- sidered data include the natural features of drainage basins, the formation conditions of water resources and water quality, data on the current pollution of pilot objects, the existing system of hydrometeorological, hydrochemical, and water management monitoring.

734 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 3. Example of filling the section State Monitoring Sites, Block 1, for drainage basins of rivers in the Kuibyshev Reservoir basin (materials of Institute of Limnology, Russian Academy of Sciences).

Cheboksary

State monitoring sites

SAMARSKAYA

Kazanka R. Arsk settl.

Kaza nka

Kazanka R.

Sviyaga R.

Kazan

Mesha R.

M esh

a

Mesha R Nestretsy V.

Kazanka R. Kazanka R.

Sviyaga

Surskoe Kanash

Kuibyshev Reservoir

Bol’shoi Cheremshan - Novocheremshansk Settl.

B. Cheremshan R.

B. Cheremshan R. B. Cheremshan R.Dimitrovgrad

B. Ch

ere ms

han

Vyatskie polyany

Mesha R. PestreutSviyaga R.Sviyaga R.

Sviyaga R. Buinsk

Tetyushi

Ul’yanovsk

Alatyr

OBLAST

REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

REPUBLIC OF UDMURTIYA

REPUBLIC OF MARIY-EL

1 сm = 20 km

0 25 50 100 km

THE STRUCTURE OF BLOCK 2. WATER POLLUTION SOURCES

General description of point and diffuse pollution sources for pilot water objects in their drainage basins.

Characteristics of diffuse pollution sources include livestock population, application of mineral and organic fertilizers, the concentrations of chemical ele- ments in soils, etc.; these characteristics are input parameters to the model or calculation procedure for diffuse pollution (Block 3 of the prototype).

Characteristics of point pollution sources are given by data of 2-TP (vodkhoz).

For example, it was established that the main sources of nutrient pollution (nitrogen and phospho- rus) are cattle-breeding and poultry farms and fertil- ized fields in agricultural sector. Schematic maps of the location of cattle breeding complexes and farms are given, the pilot drainage basins were zoned in terms of the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus applied in agricultural fields, the populations of cattle, pigs, poultry, etc. (Fig. 6). The load is maximal in the drainage basin of the Sviyaga River, which hosts 199

cattle farms, five poultry farms, and four pig farms, as well as three agricultural complexes and two agricul- tural enterprises of mixed type.

THE STRUCTURE OF BLOCK 3. NUMERICAL ESTIMATES OF DIFFUSE POLLUTION

This block contains methods for calculating diffuse pollution for pilot water objects;

it presents estimates of diffuse pollution (annual mass or modules of export of pollutants from the drainage basin) in the form of maps or diagrams;

it gives forecast values of diffuse pollution at differ- ent scenarios of changes in anthropogenic load, for example, at the involvement of derelict lands in agri- cultural use or at an increase in the area of irrigated lands, the volumes of applied fertilizers, and cattle- breeding development.

For example, three-dimensional geomigration model and code Visual MODFLOW were used in this study to forecast the migration of perchloroethylene, a nonreactive element-tracer with a low MAC

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 735

Fig. 4. Example of filling the section Hydrometric Characteristics, Block 1. Distribution of precipitation in the basin of the Malyi Karaman R. in 2014–2018 (materials of Kostyakov VRIHiM).

0

Precipitation, mm

Ja n.

1 , 2

01 4

10

15

20

25

30

5

35

M ar

. 1 , 2

01 4

M ay

1 , 2

01 4

Ju ly

1 , 2

01 4

Se p.

1 , 2

01 4

N ov

. 1 , 2

01 4

Ja n.

1 , 2

01 5

M ar

. 1 , 2

01 5

M ay

1 , 2

01 5

Ju ly

1 , 2

01 5

Se p.

1 , 2

01 5

N ov

. 1 , 2

01 5

Ja n.

1 , 2

01 6

M ar

. 1 , 2

01 6

M ay

1 , 2

01 6

Ju ly

1 , 2

01 6

Se p.

1 , 2

01 6

N ov

. 1 , 2

01 6

Ja n.

1 , 2

01 7

M ar

. 1 , 2

01 7

M ay

1 , 2

01 7

Ju ly

1 , 2

01 7

Se p.

1 , 2

01 7

N ov

. 1 , 2

01 6

Ja n.

1 , 2

01 8

M ar

. 1 , 2

01 8

M ay

1 , 2

01 8

Ju ly

1 , 2

01 8

Se p.

1 , 2

01 8

N ov

. 1 , 2

01 8

Fig. 5. Example of filling the section Hydrochemical characteristics, Block 1. The distribution of total nitrogen (Ntot) concentra- tions in pools of the Ivankovo Reservoir over long period.

0

Ntot, mg/L

0.8

1.2

1.6

0.4

2.0

Vo lz

hs ki

i

Sh os

hi ns

ki i

Iv an

’k ov

sk ii

1974

Vo lz

hs ki

i

Sh os

hi ns

ki i

Iv an

’k ov

sk ii

1980

Vo lz

hs ki

i

Sh os

hi ns

ki i

Iv an

’k ov

sk ii

2015–2016

(0.005 mg/L) for the area of solid waste (SW) burial site Kulakovo (Podol’sk raion) (Fig. 7). This com- pound was chosen because the areas of perchloroeth- ylene pollution are far in excess of the zone of influ- ence of the burial site identified by macrocomponent indicators. Such situation has formed in Podol’sk dis- trict, Moscow oblast, where groundwater intakes are polluted by organochlorine compounds. The results of simulation support the assumption that Kulakovo SW burial site is a possible source of pollution of the podol’sko-myachkovskii aquifer.

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

The analysis of pollution sources for Ivankovo Res- ervoir drainage basin was carried out for the period 1986–2018 (Figs. 8, 9).

The general dynamics of pollutant export from dif- fuse and point pollution sources was carried out for three-year periods (1986–1988, 2001–2003, 2015– 2017 гг.) (Fig. 10) with zoning the drainage basin fol- lowing administration principle (Fig. 11).

As the final ESDMS block is the development of water protection measures with their efficiency evalu- ation, the contributions of point and diffuse pollution

736 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 6. Example of filling the section Characteristics of diffuse pollution sources, Block 2. Zoning of pilot drainage basins in the basin of the Kuibyshev Reservoir in terms of nitrogen applied on agricultural fields over 2017 (by data of the Institute of Limnol- ogy, Russian Academy of Sciences).

Nitrogen in mineral

1 cm = 20 km

0 20 40 80 km

fertilizers, N, t more than 800

500–800 200–500 60–200 less than 60

Sviyaga

Mesha

REPUBLIC OF UDMURTIYA

Kazanka

Sv iya

ga

Cheremshan

REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

Кuibyshev Reservoir

sources for several pollutants have been compared (Fig. 12).

For example, analysis of oil products has shown that the problem of diffuse pollution aggravates (Fig. 12).

Figure 13 gives an example of calculation of diffuse export of nitrogen from agricultural fields in the drain-

age basins of rivers in the Kuibyshev Reservoir basin carried out in 2017 in this study. Also, the mean long- term biogenic load onto the Kuibyshev Reservoir from the right and left sides of its drainage basin was given. For example, the module of nitrogen export from the right part of the drainage basin is 350.9 and that from its left side is 493.7 kg/km2 year.

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 737

Fig. 7. Forecasted distribution of perchloroethylene pollution from the territory of solid waste disposal site Kulakovo in kashirskii aquifer for 2018 (based on data of OOO NPP Georesurs). The coordinate axes show the size of the calculation domain; asterisks show water intake wells; full lines are contours of concentrations 0.1, 0.01, 0.001, and 0.0001. The gradient shows the domain where perchloroethylene concentration is not less than 0.01 mg/L (2 MAC).

m

5000 7534 m6004000300020001000

0.0001

1100

2200

3300

4400

5500

6600

7700

8681

0

0.00 10.0

00 1

0.0 01

0.001

0.01

0.1

Fig. 8. Long-term dynamics of the input of oil products from point pollution sources into the hydrographic network in the drain- age basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir (1987–2017).

0

Oil products, t/year

40 60 80

100 120

20

140

19 87

19 88

19 89

19 90

19 91

19 92

19 93

19 94

19 95

19 96

19 97

19 98

19 99

20 00

20 01

20 02

20 03

20 04

20 05

20 14

20 15

20 16

20 17

Year

THE STRUCTURE OF BLOCK 4. WATER PROTECTION MEASURES

This block proposes water protection measures for each type of diffuse pollution sources, located in pilot drainage areas.

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

Agricultural Territories Additional measures regarding animal residues

may be as follows: at animal farms, these include manure storages and

liquid manure tanks;

738 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 9. Long-term dynamics of the application of mineral fertilizers on agricultural fields in the drainage basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir.

0

thous. t

30

50

70

20

40

60

10

80

Year

19 86

19 87

19 88

19 89

19 90

19 91

19 92

19 93

19 94

19 95

19 96

19 97

19 98

19 99

20 00

20 01

20 02

20 04

20 03

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

20 10

20 11

20 12

20 13

20 14

20 15

20 16

20 17

20 18

Fig. 10. Total export of nitrogen Nmin and phosphorus Pmin from agricultural objects into the hydrographic network in the drain- age basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir (1986–1988, 2001–2003, 2015–2017).

2015–20172001–20031986–1988 0

(а)

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1000

7000

Year 2015–20172001–20031986–1988 0

1000

1500

2000

500

2500

Year

(b)Nmin, t Рmin, t

adapted places for cattle and watering sites not closer than 300 m from water sources;

storage facilities for fertilizers, toxic chemicals, and combustible materials not closer than 500 m from populated localities and water sources; animal burial grounds, not closer than 1 km;

liquid manure and liquid wastes should be treated by mechanical, artificial and natural biological treat- ment or physicochemical processing. The choice of the treatment method depends on the local relief con- ditions and the distribution of hydrographic network;

the cleaning of the territory of cattle-breeding enterprises should be mechanized and systematic, using mobile dumptrucks, sprinkling trucks, indus- trial vacuum-cleaners mounted on tractors, other machines and aggregates, which should be mounted on grounds with hard coating (concrete) especially prepared for such use.

Urban Territories Water protection measures for urban territories can

be divided into several categories. (1) Measures aimed to improve the sanitary condi-

tions; administration of regular cleanup of the territories; timely repair of road paving; bordering of planting zone by borders preventing

soil washing during showers onto road paving; improvement of the technical state of the operated

machines; removal and cleaning of snow from motor roads,

bridges, and water protection zones; fencing of construction sites with organization of

removal of surface f low with the use of a temporary system of open flumes, clearing it by 50−70% in set- tlers and sending for further clearing;

prevention of discharge into treatment facilities of production wastes, including spent oil products;

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 739

Fig. 11. Zoning of the drainage basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir by the normal annual export mass of phosphorus, Pmin, t, from agricultural objects into the hydrographic network of the drainage basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir (1986–1988).

BezhetskMaksatikha raion

Bezhetsk raion

Kesovogorskii raion

Kalyazin

Kalyazin raion

Kimry raion

Kimry

Klin

Tver oblast

Smolensk oblast

Moscow oblast

Udomlya raion

Spirovskii raion

Vyzhnevolotskii raion

Torzhok

Tver

Torzhok raion

Kuvshinovo raion

Seliger Lake

Ostashkovo raionPenovskii

raion

raion raion

raion

raion raion

raion raion VERKHNEVOLZSKOE RES.

-- >

Iv an

ko vo

R ese

rv oir

.

Konakovo Tver

StaritsaRzhev

Rzhev

Selizharovo

Andreapol

Olenino

Volga basin Ivankovo Reservoir basin Borders of RF constituent entities Rivers

Lakes, reservoirs

Populated localities

Nitrogen export from plowed lands, t

14–29

29–40

40–68 68–207

207–316

Scale 1 : 1 400 000

Bezhetsk Maksatikha

raion

Bezhetsk raion

Kesovogorsk raion

Kalyazin

Kalyazin raion

Kimry raion

Kimry

Klin

Tver oblast

Smolensk oblast

Moscow oblast

Udomlya raion

Spirovskii raion

Vyzhnevolotskii raion Likhoslavl

raion

Torzhok

Tver

Torzhok raion

Kuvshinovo raion

Seliger Lake

Ostashkovo raion

Pskov raion

raion

raion

raion

raion

raion

raion

raion

raion VERKHNEVOLZSKOE RES.

Yauzskoe Res.

Iv an

ko vo

R ese

rv oir

Kopaevsk

Tver

Staritsa

Rzhev

Rzhev

Zubtsov

Selizharovo

Andreapol

Olenino

Volga basin Ivankovo Reservoir basin Borders of RF constituent entities

Rivers

Lakes, reservoirs

Populated localities

Phosphorus export from plowed lands, t

2–5

5–8 8–15

15–25

25–38

Scale 1 : 1 400 000

raion Zubtsov

Likhoslavl raion

regulation of storage and transportation of loose and liquid materials.

(2) Measures aimed to clear surface f low. Treatment facilities in use: settling ponds (including cascade); hydrobotanic grounds; modular stations of deep purification;

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

treatment facilities with individual design made of precast and monolith concrete;

treatment facilities of the filter cartridge type; simplest treatment facilities. By their position, the treatment facilities are

divided into ground-based treatment facilities;

740 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 12. Proportions of oil product pollution of water objects in the basin of the Ivankovo Reservoir from point and diffuse sources, %.

1986–1988

Point

Diffuse

2001–2003 2015–2017

Fig. 13. Calculated diffuse export of nitrogen from agricultural fields in 2017 in drainage basins of rivers in the Kuibyshev Reser- voir basin (by data of the Institute of Limnology, Russian Academy of Science.

Kazanka R. drainage basin

Sviyaga R. drainage basin Mesha R. drainage basin

Bol’shoi Cheremshan R. drainage basin

Nitrogen export in 2017, kg/(ha s)

50 0 50 100 150 200 km

0–3 3–6 6–9.1 9.1–12.1 12.1–15.1 15.1–18.1 18.1–21.1

subsurface treatment facilities;

treatment facilities of mixed ground–subsurface location;

attached treatment facilities.

Industrial Sites

In accordance with the regulatory documents, the system of storm draining for industrial territories should be provided by the treatment of the entire vol- ume of surface runoff [7].

The choice of the system for disposal and treatment of surface runoff should be based on assessing the technical feasibility and economic expediency of the following measures:

the use of untreated surface f low in systems of industrial water supply;

the localization of the parts of industrial territories in which specific pollutants can reach the surface and removal of wastewater f low into industrial sewage sys- tem or, after their pretreatment, into rainwater drain- age system;

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 741

Table 1. A brief characteristic of pilot objects

Pilot drainage basin/object of study Institution which carried out the study Types of economic activity/

diffuse pollution sources

The Ivankovo Reservoir (upper reaches of the Volga)

WPI RAS Urban territories of the cities of Tver and Konakovo, agriculture, industrial sites (case study of Konakovo SDPP)

The Yakhroma R. Kostyakov RRIGiM VRIHiM

Agriculture/meliorated river f loodplain

Aquifer and surface watercourses in the basin of the Sukhaya Lopasnya and Pakhra rivers

WPI RAS/JSC NPP Geo- resurs

Disposal of production and consumption wastes/solid waste burial sites Shcherbinka and Kulakovo in Moscow oblast

Lake Nero (Kotorosl R. basin) WPI RAS Urbanized territory (Rostov City, Yaroslavl oblast)

Floodplain part of the Volga near Nizhny Novgorod

WPI RAS/JSC Inzhener- noe delo

Residential territory with intense pollution of soils, subsoil water, and bottom sediments

Small rivers in the basin of the Cheboksary Reservoir

IG RAS Agriculture/plowed lands, pastures, conventionally natural landscapes

Drainage basins of the Sviyaga, Kazanka, Mesha, and Bol’shoi Cheremshan in Cheboksary Reservoir basin

ILimn RAS Agriculture/plowed lands/farm dairies

Water management plot on the Kama River near Solikamsk–Berezniki industrial zone

PFRC Ural Div., RAS Chemical industry/water objects with highly mineralized water

Water management area on the Vyatka River near Kirovo-Chepetsk industrial zone

PFRC Ural Div., RAS Chemical industry/floodplain-subsoil water with a high concentration of nutrients

Drainage basins of small rivers in Chusovaya basin

WPI RAS/RosRIWM Nonferrous-metals industry/territories subject to intense aerogenic pollution; agriculture/ pastures, plowed lands

The basin of the Malyi Karaman River Kostyakov VRIHiM Agriculture/meliorated lands Drainage basins of small rivers in the Volga–Akhtuba floodplain

FRC of Agroecology RAS Agriculture/territory of irrigated farming

separate disposal of surface runoff from drainage areas with different pollution character and level;

independent treatment of surface water; supply of surface water to plant treatment facilities

for its joint treatment with industrial wastewaters. The system of surface water removal from indus-

trial sites will be chosen based on the climate condi- tions, land topography, requirements to wastewater treatment quality and possible conditions of disposal of treated wastewaters into a water object or for reuse.

THE STRUCTURE OF BLOCK 5. EFFICIENCY OF WATER PROTECION MEASURES

This block includes ecological–economic calcula- tions of the efficiency of implementing the measures proposed in Block 4. In the choice of water protection measures, two types of representation of their effi- ciency can be identified―the environmental (reduc- tion of pollutant f luxes) and economic (the decrease in pollutant f lows expressed in terms of cost).

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 47 No. 5 2020

The prevented ecological damage is the difference between the masses of released pollutants before and after the implementation of nature-protection mea- sures. The economic effect (in rubles) of the preven- tion of ecological damage is proportional to the decrease in the masses of pollution export due to water-protection measures. The economic estimates of the prevented ecological damage are commonly based on “The Temporal Procedure for Determining Prevented Ecological Damage” over 1999 [1].

An example of estimating the efficiency of water- protection measures for rivers in the drainage basin of the Cheboksary Reservoir is given in Fig. 14. The larg- est effect for reducing nitrogen and phosphorus release from diffuse sources is due to the installation of digestion chambers in each rural house not connected with centralized sewerage system. The economic effect of the provision of digestion chambers to all rural households in three pilot drainage basins will total ~9100 thous. ruble per year.

Another approach was implemented for meliorated territory of the Yakhroma basin. It is proposed to eval-

742 KOZLOVA et al.

Fig. 14. Reduction of the environmental damage due to water protection measures in pilot drainage areas of the Kud’ma, Linda, and Uzola rivers (by data of the Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences).

0

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2000

3000

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7000 Kud’ma

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Fig. 15. Prevented ecological damage by scenarios of water-protection measures for meliorated territories in the Yakhroma R. basin (by data of Kostyakov VRIHiM).

0

th ou

s. ru

b.

2000

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

3000

9000

1000

10000

Σ923.69

Σ7949.68 Σ8873.37

Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Prevented damage in terms of nitrogen, thous. rub. Prevented damage in terms of potassium, thous. rub. Prevented damage in terms of phosphorus, thous. rub.

uate the efficiency of water-protection measures for four possible scenarios. The basic (worst) scenario (scenario 1) in the Yakhroma basin is the current situ- ation, which implies no measures aimed to reduce the volume of surface and drainage runoff that forms in the drainage basin and to improve its quality. The first proposed alternative scenario (scenario 2) includes

measures aimed to reduce the surface runoff and improve its quality. The next alternative scenario (sce- nario 3) implies partial treatment of drainage runoff at the melioration system of the Yakhroma floodplain in the area of 7871.015 ha, where drainage f low is dis- charged directly into the river network. A complex sce- nario (scenario 4) includes measures from scenarios 2

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DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 743

and 3, i.e., the reduction of diffuse runoff from surface and drainage waters. The complex scenario 4 provides maximal prevented damage of 8873.37 thous. rubbles (Fig. 15).

CONCLUSIONS The improvement of the efficiency of water-pro-

tection programs in the Volga basin requires a complex approach to the assessment of all active pollution sources. The neglect and lack of monitoring for the class of pollution sources that mostly show diffuse character of pollutant export from drainage basins has shown the minor results of Russian water protection. Considering the urgent problems with the quality of water bodies in the Volga basin, a prototype of ESDMS for the optimization of water-protection measures was developed.

Twelve pilot objects were determined in the basin from the Upper Volga to its mouth with different parameters of drainage basins and types of pollution sources: agricultural objects, urban areas, industrial sites, disposal sites of municipal and industrial wastes, etc.

The basis of the prototype of the expert system is as follows:

long-term experimental studies; developed and improved methodological

approaches to assessing diffuse pollution sources; long-term databases based on statistical assessment

and analysis of the relationships between the govern- ing parameters of the level of anthropogenic load by the types of pollution sources;

the analysis of the implemented water-protection measures and the qualitative state of water objects;

specialized GIS. The main result of the developed prototype is the

implemented basin-scale principle of incorporation, comparison, and ranking of the main sources of pollu- tion and priority pollutants and estimate of the effi- ciency of proposals for water protection of water objects in the Volga basin.

FUNDING

This study was carried out under Governmental Order to Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (subject no. 0126-2019-0038, state registration no. АААА- А18-118061800142-8).

REFERENCES

1. Temporal Procedure for Determining Prevented Eco- logical Damage (approved by Goskomekologiya RF, March 9, 1999 [Electronic Resource]. http://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req= doc&base=EXP&n=278825#02615874783966772

2. Gordin, I.V. and Kirpichnikova, N.V., Comparative as- sessment of the environmental hazard of surface runoff from industrial sites and urban territories, Prom. Energ., 1993, no. 1, pp. 32–37.

3. Jackson, P., Vvedenie v ekspertnye sistemy (Introduction to Expert Systems), Moscow: Vil’yams, 2001.

4. Kirpichnikova, N.V., Studying uncontrolled pollution sources for water objects: case study of the Ivankovo Reservoir, Extended Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Techn.) Dis- sertation, Moscow: Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992.

5. Kirpichnikova, N.V., Uncontrolled pollution sources, in Ivan’kovskoe vodokhranilishche. Sovremennoe sostoy- anie i problemy okhrany (The Ivankovo Reservoir. Cur- rent State and Protection Problems), Moscow: Nauka, 2000, pp. 36–62.

6. Kravchenko, T.K., Expert system for decision making support, Otkryt. Obraz., 2010, no. 6, pp. 147–156.

7. Rekomendatsii po raschetu sistem sbora, otvedeniya i och- istki poverkhnostnogo stoka s selitebnykh territorii, plosh- chadok predpriyatii i opredeleniyu uslovii vypuska ego v vodnye ob’’ekty (Recommendations for calculation of systems for collection, disposal, and treatment of sur- face runoff from residential territories and industrial sites and determining the conditions for its discharge into water objects), Moscow: NII VODGEO, 2014.

Translated by G. Krichevets

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