Patrol Methods exam

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception: systems and broken windows theories

Luis Camilo Ortigueira-Sánchez1

Received: 4 July 2014 /Accepted: 18 July 2016 /Published online: 26 July 2016 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Abstract The paper puts forward a systems conception of the policies associated with public organizations of all types. Using this approach it sheds light on diverse matters of great theoretical and practical significance regarding what is known as the ‘System for Public Policies,’ such as their boundaries, external and internal relationships and their epistemological problems. Other important considerations include the states and forms of representation, external and internal properties, and aspects of a dynamic character. In this paper, the Broken Windows Theory is considered as a specific case of the Systems approach to the formulation and evaluation of public policies. This paper analyses whether factors considered under the Broken Windows Theory predict citi- zens’ concerns about public safety and policing. The empirical research consisted of a survey of residents in a Spanish city. Results reveal that the opinion of residents about the orderliness and cleanliness of their city affects the citizens’ concerns about safety; this is considered to confirm the Broken Windows Theory in the case of Spanish cities.

Keywords Citizen safety perception . Systems theory. Broken windows theory. Crime marketing . Antisocial behaviour marketing

1 Introduction

The literature relating to public organisations offers abundant and very diverse thinking about how to steer, administer, direct, manage or govern them. The intention underlying the task of governing any such entity concentrates on determining how to advance it from its ‘Current Situation’ to a ‘Desired Future Situation’. To achieve this, it is essential to answer three fundamental questions: What to do?, How to do it? and When to do it? In effect, the answers to these constitute what is comprised by the term: ‘public

Int Rev Public Nonprofit Mark (2017) 14:95–111 DOI 10.1007/s12208-016-0163-x

* Luis Camilo Ortigueira-Sánchez lc.ortigueiras@up.edu.pe

1 Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Perú

policy’. Of course, the task of eliminating the unknowns inherent in each question is not a simple matter. It requires large amounts of information, knowledge and inven- tiveness, which explains why finding good designers of public policies is so difficult (Ortigueira-Sánchez et al. 2015). In the relational structure derived from associating each ‘What?’ with its ‘How?’, and each ‘How?’ with its ‘When?’, three main problems arise: i) the choice of the best decision-making chain; ii) the lack of information, knowledge or imagination, which causes to leak advantageous alternative chains; iii) the process of selection, usually subject to negotiation, due to the intervention of diverse interests, perceptions, ideologies, commitments, values, and even fads and whims; and this negotiation may also lead to select less beneficial chains.

Depending on the character of the public body concerned (usually a recognised institution or organisation), its policies become general or sectoral, in so far as the content of the policies may result in their being regulatory, distributive, redistributive and institutional. In general, almost all public policies make use of these typologies. Each public policy constitutes an entity that is characterised, first, by the objective or objectives associated with it; second, by the financial, human, physical (material or energy), informational and organisational resources or means that are allocated to it; and third, by the actions required for the implementation or execution of the policy.

The policies that are in force at any particular time in any public entity are interrelated one with another. These relationships, which will be stronger or weaker according to the particular case and circumstance, mean that such policies may be considered not as a mere set but as a dynamic system of public policies (SPP). The present paper describes a study of the structure of interactions between policies, within the concept of systems theory. Then a complementary approach invoking the Broken Windows Theory (BWT) is considered, and an empirical demonstration through a citizen survey is presented. This survey of citizens’ opinions analyses the relationship between safety and the policies for urban orderliness and cleanliness in a city. The interactions found among policies demonstrate that the policing of the city forms one sub-system that is critical for citizen safety, and a change in one policy can affect another. The broken windows theory suggest the same but in a specific case; when policies are associated with the physical decay and social disorder in a neighbourhood, this situation affects the perception of safety.

Repercussion of insecurity over whole city image is well known as harmful to citizens and travelers; this is the reason why some studies consider citizen safety as a motivational factor of a destination (Almeida 2010; Pesonen and Komppula 2010; Ortigueira-Sánchez and Gómez-Selemeneva 2012; Madhavan and Rastogi 2013; Tsephe and Obono 2013; Streimikiene and Bilan 2015). As example Forwardkeys (forwardkeys.com) data revealed a relevant percentage of variation (Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016) of int’l Net Bookings after terrorism attacks in Europe. Although this decline was concentrated in the cities directly affected as Paris (−22 %), Istanbul (−18 %) and Brussels (−17 %) the consequences expanded to others cities in the area. Nowadays, criminal minds are applying marketing strategies to communicate their actions and attract new followers; from social network, video productions/emissions, channels, blogs etc., media is given them voice and as consequence they are achieving publicity. This situation could be termed as ‘crime marketing’ or ‘antisocial behaviour marketing’. One question arise at this moment; does the removal of the communication possibilities of offenders should reduce antisocial and criminal behavior? Probably President Obama decided not to modify his recent visit to several Latin-American

96 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

countries after Brussels attack responding to this question. Under this perspective, adopt BWT could be considered in some cases as a question of Social Marketing since consist in changing a negative image associated to an antisocial behavior into a neutral or positive image. In our opinion BWT consider that marketing of antisocial and criminal behavior has repercussion in crime rates. In the 1980s George Kelling (one of the BWT developers) decided to eliminate the graffiti as a priority in the subways of New York, that is to say he decided to remove crime marketing that transmit a negative image of lack of control. His decision contributed to decrease the level of crime during the worst period of delinquency in the history of New York. Urban sensing and social media law enforcement practices could be considered a challenge for contributing to future crime reduction and prevention.

2 Theoretical background

During the 1940’s the development of systems theory (von Bertalanffy 1968, 1972) gave rise to the analysis of systems by way of operations research and from work done by the RAND Corporation. In this respect Fisher (1966) emphasizes that the funda- mental characteristic of systems analysis is the systematic examination and comparison of the lines of action that may be taken to reach certain specific objectives at a certain point of time in the future. Another author, Quade (1963), considers systems analysis to be an approach aimed at assisting the decision-maker in the choice of an optimum or appropriate course of action, by examining the problem as a whole, seeking objectives and alternatives – solutions or systems –, comparing them in the light of their consequences, and applying an appropriate basis for analysis – the most analytical possible – with the object of presenting an expert opinion on the problem. Quade (1963: 122) defined Systems Analysis as analysis with the object of proposing a course of action by systematically examining the cost, effectiveness and risk of alternative policies or strategies – and designing alternative ones if those examined are found wanting, and considered systems analysis as an approach to complex problems of choice under conditions of uncertainty. As argued by Ortigueira-Bouzada (1992:17) Bcities are complex social systems. The task of those politicians who have responsi- bilities in the local field is to achieve a higher standard of living within a stimulating environment for the majority of population^. This author also states that the city is a system, a grouping of many individuals organized in diverse subsystems (family, corporate, religious, educational, etc.) which interact in complex ways.

The conception of the policies of a public body in system terms (as interrelated elements) is the consequence of the desired future situation that is expected to result from a logical, creative and critical analysis of the present reality, after a thorough and repeated process of observation. Therefore, policies to be executed are mutually supportive of each other and, to a greater or less extent, resources are then transferred between them, according to the circumstances in which they take place. One of the factors that distinguishes or identifies these policies is the predominance that some policies have over others in terms of the amount of resources utilized. Stewart and Ayres (2001) equate systems analysis and the building of systemic models, and this is something common in policy-making; at the same time they consider the usefulness of applying systems approaches for generating distinctive strategies for analysis and implementation.

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 97

Optner (1968) defined a system as Ba set of objectives and a set of relationships between these objects and their attributes^ and within the SPP, each particular policy constitutes a sub-system composed, in turn, by elements that are interrelated. Each of these elements is characterized by consuming resources and/or time in the course of being executed. The elements are the activities that must be carried out in order for the policy to achieve its objective. These sub-systems can be configured, preferably, as multifunctional systems of physical modification, of action, of observation, and of information processing.

Moreover, in the light of the relationships between their inputs and outputs, these systems can bring together functions of storage, of transport, of switching and of quantitative and qualitative processing of physical flows and information flows. The actions referred to can, in turn, be configured as subsystems created by other actions of the lower level that could also be related to each other.

2.1 Boundaries and problems

A public entity take actions and provide service doing a difficult task the spatio- temporal delimitation in a SPP (or of any of its subsystems, such as environmental policy, cultural policy, etc.) that can sometimes affect people who are not residents in the territorial space for which that entity has responsibility; for outsiders these effects may be desirable (e.g. holding entertainment, leisure and sporting events) or undesir- able (e.g. installing facilities for the disposal of toxic wastes). It is also a fact that certain policies may have beneficial or adverse effects on future generations (Ortigueira- Bouzada 1998). Thus, there have been innumerable examples of cases in which one generation of citizens has financed policies of abundance on credit, leaving subsequent generations to suffer penury to pay off the debts of the past, sometimes the very distant past. And vice versa; there have been generations that have made sacrifices beyond what can be imagined, undertaking policies of investment whose fruits were enjoyed only by the following generations. The current examples of such policies are in the pages of all the newspapers: policies pursued by countries whose fame has today reached a peak in the international context.

The boundary separating the SPP from its external context undergoes alterations or changes over the course of time, as a consequence of the inclusion and/or exclusion of various persons or elements. The difficulty in identifying this boundary is evident in the field of public policies and their systems, in the delimitation of the physical, populational, organisational, financial, political, and most particularly, the legal boundary. It is thus here where two epistemological problems arise. The first, as we have just seen, is centered on the possibility of separating the SPP from its context or setting, and this problem could be approached from two complementary perspectives: one, the ‘substantialist approach’, according to which the SPP is individualizable and separable from its setting; the other, the ‘existentialist approach’, according to which only conventional entities - SPPs - exist, and these have fuzzy boundaries and are identifiable by their diffuse behavior in a given context. In this regard, Bowen and Heath (2005:84) recognized that systems theory Bsupports the argument that an organization must be good internally and make decisions from an Boutside-in^ perspective^. On the other hand, Daneke (2005) considered that Bsystems theory or thinking is essentially an alternative epistemic orientation^ and that Bserious theory building requires a revival of elements from Systems Theories.^

98 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

In relation to the foregoing, we should draw attention to the protagonism that the approach focusing on the external orientation of public entities effectively grants to the citizens or users, often regarded as the co-owners or customers (Osborne and Gaebler 1992), whose relationship to the entity is similar to the influence that customers have on a company that aims to satisfy their needs at a price. Its proximity to the ‘externalist’ approach is more than evident. This idea of the citizen as consumer has been widely considered in research on both Bfor profit^ and Bnot for profit^ contexts (for example: Rodríguez et al. 2009; Belanche et al. 2010; Bouzas-Lorenzo 2010; Carvalho et al. 2010; Matei and Matei 2011; Upton and Mansell 2011; Galan-Ladero et al. 2013; Choudhury 2014). What is being sought is to reduce the weight exerted by the internal actors (managers, governors, bureaucrats) on the behaviors or orientations of the SPP, in favor of the social agents or ‘actors’ belonging to the external environment, i.e. the citizens, the customers.

At this point, it is interesting to return to the topic of the SPP and its components or subsystems, that is, the specific public policies whose relationships actually create the particular entity. In the internal context of the SPP, two interesting epistemological problems arise. The first problem lies particularly in the possibility of decomposing the overall system into specific public policies, focusing either on the elements or on the internal relationships of the SPP.

2.2 System network perspectives

Network Theory can be utilized to describe the processes of execution of the SPP corresponding to a public entity of any type. Given the diversity of existing network- focused research in public administration, Lecy et al. (2014) organized the literature and identified three subdomains: policy formation, governance and policy implementation.

Considering the subdomain of policy formation, two complementary ap- proaches are viable: one is the ‘corpuscular approach’, whereby specific policies exist that are made relatively individual but which allow the properties of the overall SPP to be taken into account through the interactions between the specific policies; the other is the ‘interactionist’ approach, whereby there are networks of multiple interaction in the heart of the SPP, which structure and bring to light several dense nodes that are assimilable to subsystems. In 1998 Klijn made an overview about Policy Networks and several authors (Klijn 2001; Van Buuren and Klijn 2006; Skelcher et al. 2011) developed a research line around this idea of Network with the new paradigm of Governance in public administration. Starting from the hypothesis of the decomposition of the SPP into specific strategies or policies, the second epistemological problem concerns the direction of the relationship between the SPP and its strategies or policies. Two new approaches arise here: the ‘reductionist’, in which the SPP is the synthetic expression of a set of strategies or policies that interact with each other in different ways, and the SPP can be explained by the properties of its specific policies. The second is the ‘integrator’ view, in which the SPP is an indissoluble whole, which imposes certain limitations on the specific policies; its global properties are not reducible to the policies nor to its networks of relationships or interactions).

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 99

2.3 States

Both the SPP and its constitutive strategies or specific policies are ‘systems with states’. The state of a policy at a particular point in time ‘t’ is the qualitative interpretation of the attributes associated with its corresponding quantitative values. A series of succes- sive states of the SPP or of specific policies, represented by their corresponding ‘Vectors of State’, is an authentic ‘Scenario’ that can provide a lot of information on the evolution of the global system or any of its constitutive policies. Godet (1991) introduced the method of scenarios, and since then it has been utilized widely in the public sector for the analysis of policies, strategic planning, forecasting and prospective outcomes. By way of example, we could present the state of the ‘Policy for Infrastruc- tures 2011-2014’ of the entity H at the time t = 1/1/2013 with the vector (180, 201, 128) that represent in terms of Km constructed on date 1/1/2013 the Motorways, Dual carriageway roads and Railway lines.

The SPP itself and any of its policies (subsystems) are usually described in terms of the ‘Finalist System’ (Walliser 1977) and are always associated with goals, objectives and targets. However, on occasions, a modelling is possible in terms of a ‘Causal System’, which can allow some experimentation on the model, that is, some simulation to observe the effects that particular changes made to certain variables produce in the behavior of other variables.

2.4 Properties

The analysis or evaluation of the SPP is strengthened when it is studied in respect of its external properties, that is, those properties that take into account the external context of the SPP. Relevant aspects of the SPP would be its openness, equilibrium, the stability of that equilibrium and, particularly, its adaptability or robustness, understanding this as the capacity of the SPP to achieve its objectives despite unfavorable conditions in the external context.

The global approach of the SPP is strengthened when it is complemented with knowledge extracted from its internal reality. This global approach leads, in full, to the decomposition of the SPP into partial policies (subsystems), which is possible when a particular SPP is quasi-divisible; that is, when it can be decomposed into two or more policies that may receive inputs, perform internal transformations and generate outputs (actions, services, etc.). These policies may be of very diverse types, such as direct, indirect, complex, static, stationary, temporary, physico-material, physico-energy, in- formative, etc. Networks inter-relate these policies with each other, and with the external context of the global system (the SPP). These interactions can be multi- relational (with diverse types of relationships) or uni-relational (with one single type of flow) in character.

One very relevant topic involves the coordination of the public policies within the framework of the global system that the SPP represents, from the ‘finalist’ perspective, in terms of its ultimate goals. In this respect, it is obvious that the subordinate policies may behave either more or less helpfully in contributing to the achievement of the goals of the SPP. Hence the degree of coordination is associated with this helpfulness. When the situation is one of low or negative helpfulness, there exist three alternative types of possible coordinating activity: 1) excluding or marginalizing the negative or unhelpful

100 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

policies; 2) making the actions or performance of certain policies either much more or much less predominant over the rest; 3) adjusting or modifying the characteristics of a particular policy that are adversely affecting real coordination.

Two principal factors determine the extent to which the subordinate policies are subject to the discipline of coordinated action: one is the way in which such policies are organized; that is, their degree of centralization (i.e. whether dominant policies exist) or decentralization (i.e. all the policies are of equal weight); the other is the degree of relative homogeneity of the policies.

Any disturbance taking place within the workings of a policy of critical importance can set off a chain of numerous adverse effects on the rest of the policies of the internal context of the SPP, as well as on various systems, entities, agents operating in the external context of that same macro system or SPP. Similarly, a perturbation affecting the external context of the SPP can spread to all the policies, creating a critical situation. At the same time, many small problems generated at the level of the subordinate policies can become an enormous global problem at the SPP level.

Public policy’s relative character leads to the consideration that they need to be ranked in terms of importance, scope or other criterion. All this is in function of the entity that is taken as reference, its current situation and its desired future situation. So, it is possible to speak of ‘macro-policies’, ‘normal policies’ and ‘sub-policies’, in the same way that we speak of macro-systems (or super-systems), systems and sub- systems.

On the importance of a policy with respect others and the need to prioritize the allocation of resources; several authors have applied marketing techniques to the field of public management. This is the case of importance-performance analysis (Martilla and James 1977) which was employed to health care surveys (Ábalo et al. 2006; Abalo et al. 2007; Miranda et al. 2010; Lopes and Maia 2012) or in citizen surveys (Herian and Tomkins 2010; Van Ryzin and Immerwahr 2004; Ortigueira-Sánchez et al. 2015; Van Ryzin and Immerwahr 2007).

2.5 Dynamics

It is time now to set out some considerations in respect of the dynamics of the SPP and its components. Developed by Forrester (1968), System Dynamics is used in the public sector for the design and analysis of public policies. Applying System Dynamics it is possible to model complex dynamic systems by means of feedback processes. Forrester considered the loop as the basic structure of a feedback system and this feedback as a circulating process Bwithin which the system condition provides the input to a decision process that generates action which modifies the system condition^ (Forrester 1968:402). Later, Jackson (2006) discussed why a critical systems approach called ‘creative holism’ can help managers address complex problem situations. On the other point of view, ‘wicked problems’ in governmental planning were considered (Auping et al. 2015; Bianchi 2015) policy problems featured by high risk, uncertainty, high interdependency among variables affecting them, involving a multitude of stakeholders and characterized by its dynamic complexity.

The identity of the SPP is marked by a certain permanence of their characteristics, that is, those characteristics that appear invariant over time. This invariant aspect refers to a property of the SPP of an entity, or of any of its policies, which remains unaltered

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 101

over time despite transformations affecting this system. Among these invariants are aspects like periodicities, reversibility or changes of state.

In the SPP’s context, any invariant of a temporal nature possesses a relative value, because no characteristic is preserved forever. Given this situation it becomes necessary to define a certain field of validity for each invariant, constituted by the total set of the periods of invariance associated with all the possible trajectories of the context. The period of invariance is variable for each of the diverse aspects of the SPP. What is called the life of the SPP (or of one of its policies) is the duration that the SPP or individual policy has over time, that is, the period of invariance common to all the features that serve to define the particular SPP or policy. It should also be remembered that an SPP can survive as long as its constitutive policies are renewed.

Leaving aside the subject of the temporal invariants of the SPP, within its field of validity, the next question relates to the characteristics and the attributes of the system that may, with more or less rapidity and intensity, evolve over time. These changes may be of the continuous nature, when they express tendencies for the evolution of continuing characteristics, and of the discontinuous type, when they reflect breaks in the progression of continuing features (transitions). In practice, the principle of conti- nuity has come to be postulated, according to which any apparently discontinuous evolution is, in fact, continuous: for a continuous characteristic, it consists of a disproportionate, substantial variation, and for a discontinuous characteristic, it is translated by a succession of small variations of amplitude, as small as may be desired. The presence of temporal discontinuities has the advantage, among others, of facilitat- ing the division of the SPP into successive periods, with more or less clear boundaries. At each moment in time, some features of the previous state of the SPP and some germs of its future state are simultaneously observable.

Many of the critical situations of the SPP, or of any of its policies, may have their origin in the lack of a scenario of prospective exploration that could anticipate possible futures that might occur in, say, 20 or 30 years’ time. The methods of envisaging scenarios based on trajectories marked out by Bfuture - present^ images (scenarios of tendencies, references and frameworks) and Bpresent - future^ images (scenarios of normative and tested anticipation) can resolve this lack of exploratory foresight. Featherston and Doolan (2013) investigated this conjunction of the use of system dynamics to inform scenario planning.

Three types of classification, in relation to particular problems raised, can be applied to public policies: 1) functional, when they promote the resolution of the problem; 2) dysfunctional, when they mess up or delay the resolution of the problem; 3) non- functional, when they do not exert any influence, positive or negative, on the problem.

In relation to a particular function of the social, cultural, recreational or similar type, two public policies could be classified in several ways: 1) substitutable, when they both fulfill this function equally; 2) complementary, when they cooperate in fulfilling the function; 3) antagonistic (Meek and Newell 2005) when one serves the function and the other prejudices it; 4) independent, when they do not have a simultaneous effect on the function considered.

Finally, some of the dynamic properties of the SPP of a particular entity should be considered. As a first step, the reversibility or irreversibility of the policies must be determined. Thus, for example, the execution of a policy to privatize a publicly-owned company does not involve something irreversible, insofar as the possibility exists of the

102 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

government re-acquiring the business that was sold, reemploying any personnel dismissed, etc. Naturally, there also exist cases where the policy could be irreversible.

A second step contemplates convergence and divergence associated with the evo- lution of a public policy. Thus, following the creation of any policy, it may be that the number of citizens who become linked to it or support it shows a tendency to increase over time. This process characterized by the increase of elements and relationships associated with the policy can be described as convergent. Such a thing may occur, for example, when a particular government initiates a policy to combat illiteracy. Initially, and for a certain time, it may happen that a process of convergent evolution continues but that later this becomes divergent as the population in question becomes literate, that is, as the initial relationships people establish with the policy are broken.

A third step to consider is self-learning, that is to say, the capacity possessed by a public policy or a SPP when it is capable of adapting to its current context taking into account the experiences of the past; and self-organization, when the policy is capable of evolving in order to improve its performance in achieving its goals, in the face of changes in its internal and external contexts. Self-organization can translate into two types of fundamental structural modification: one refers to the mode of organization of the policies, in the sense of either a simplification or a complication; the other concerns the types of behavior of the policies, in the sense of either a homogenization or a differentiation.

It is evident that, for example, town-planning reclassifications would set off a chain of significant reactions in the promotion of housing or residential developments. Generally over the longer term, property investments would have effects on numerous other variables such as employment, personal incomes, business earnings, immigration, the income of the municipal Administration, etc.. These changes, in turn, would generate different states of the system, over time. Examples could be found in the system dynamics case repository of the System Dynamics Society (www.systemdynamics.org). Finally, several authors (Chahal and Eldabi 2011; Chahal et al. 2013) have considered the integrative use of discrete event simulation and system dynamics through so called hybrid simulation and others authors (Gil et al. 2005; Leweling and Sieber 2007; Madnick and Siegel 2008; De Cillis et al. 2015) used the System Dynamics approach for analyzing terrorist behavior.

2.6 Broken windows theory

In the Broken Window Theory (Kelling and Wilson 1982; Kelling and Coles 1996) context is considered to be a central element in criminal behavior, and possibly more relevant than personal characteristics. Several authors have based their research on the Broken Windows Theory. First impressions of context and early punishment of antisocial behavior were found independently and jointly causal for cooperativeness by Engel et al. (2014). Boggess and Maskaly (2014) found a significant relationship between higher rates of disorder and increases in violent crime; and a relationship between aggravated assaults and increases in disorder. The findings of Zahnow et al. (2013) indicated an association between high proportions of Indigenous residents, high levels of reported crime averaged across time and greater perceived disorder. Rukus and Warner (2013) find that government-led planning efforts that integrate private sector

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 103

funding for community services through impact fees achieve reduced crime rates. Slocum et al. (2013) report a decrease in crime when organized groups exist centered on particular city blocks, and more organizations that bridge to the larger community from individual city blocks. A positive relationship between the presence of businesses and neighborhood disorder was found by Steenbeek et al. (2012). Pitner et al. (2012) suggest that Baspects of the broken window theory, collective efficacy, and place attachments/territoriality play a role in affecting residents’ concerns about neighborhood safety .̂ Instrumental concerns about crime and illegal activity are considered by Ellison et al. (2013) a more influential predictor of attitudes to the police than concerns expressed about disorder and anti-social behavior.

As conceptualized by Ross and Mirowsky (1999: 413), perceived neighborhood disorder Brefers to visible cues indicating a lack of order and social control in the community. Order is a state of peace, safety, and observance of the law, and control is an act of maintaining this order. Order and control are indicated by visible cues that residents perceive.^ For this reason, residents’ perceptions can be used to determine the relationship between public safety and a variable that can be used as indicator of lack of order.

Based, consequently, on the idea that public policies can be widely explained from the theory of systems, and that the BWT is a specific case of this idea, a relationship would exist from the point of view of social marketing, since, as Rangun and Karim (1991, p. 3) argue: Bsocial marketing involves: (a) changing attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of individuals or organizations for a social benefit^ (Andreasen, 1994). This would indicate that, to achieve a change in criminal behavior, and more generally in attitudes of incivility and civic neglect, which would be referred to as social disorder and physical decay under the BWT, it would be necessary to act on those policies that bear a systemic relationship with the so-called Bfear of crime^ - for example by means of the measures of Bzero tolerance^ established during the period when Mr. Rudolph Giuliani was Mayor of New York by the then Chief of Police Mr William Bratton, and continued during the administration of Mayor Michael Bloomberg. It should be borne in mind, in turn, that there is a close relationship between the fear of crime and the sensation of insecurity and concern about the lack of safety in the city, on the one hand and, on the other, the sensation of impunity generated when crimes go unpunished and when disorder and incivility are not dealt with. The response by the city authorities to these anti-social phenomena is what is proposed under the BWT. This was why Mayor Giuliani imposed the zero tolerance regime, in order to tackle at the root the sensation of impunity that provoked the evident escalation in anti-social and criminal behavior by delinquents.

Attitudes and behavior constitute the central element in social marketing (Kotler and Roberto 1989; Dann 2008). From this point of view, the BWT would be thought of for achieving change in the behavior of individuals pro-actively. According to Andreasen (1994: 110) Ba social marketing campaign can include the Bmere^ provision of information on important issues or, in some cases, just a change of values and beliefs^. This author also defines social marketing as Bthe adaptation of commercial marketing technologies to programs designed to influence the voluntary behavior of target audiences to improve their personal welfare and that of the society of which they are a part^ (Andreasen 1994: 110).

104 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

Ortigueira-Sánchez et al. (2015) concluded, BAn attribute such as the cleanliness of the city may also fulfill a safety function, as proposed by the broken windows theory^ and proposed as a future line of research the verification of BWT with the addition of variables to measure the contribution of this attribute. In the present paper, we describe an opinion survey conducted to test empirically if order and orderliness, as measured by Ross and Mirowsky (1999), is related to the perception of safety in the case of Spanish citizens. In the event of finding such a relationship, it may also be concluded that the Broken Windows theory is confirmed in the case of the Spanish city surveyed. Ross and Mirowsky (1999) considered that Bto measure order, we sometimes used the semantic opposites of disorder, such as ‘safe’ versus ‘dangerous’ and ‘clean’ versus ‘dirty’^. As revealed by Michener (2013), Bwhile certain aspects of objective ‘reality’ are consequential, perceptions of such reality are a more powerful mechanism through which neighborhood disorder impacts local political engagement^.

This paper contemplates the Broken Windows theory as a realization, as a particular case of Systems theory. Public policies determine context in cities and, as already discussed in this paper, the SPP has a multifunctional character. The study carried out measures the contribution to the perception of safety of the citizens’ opinion about city cleanliness and orderliness. This relationship is active and relevant in Spain, where during 2013 several cases of strikes in rubbish removal services in large cities like Seville, Malaga and Madrid that are major tourist destinations, have resulted in serious damage to the image of these places. For example Madrid was called ‘Capital of rubbish’ in the prestigious German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine (Wieland 2013).

3 Data & measurement

The survey was conducted with a sample of citizens’ resident in the city of Dos Hermanas in Andalusia, Spain. A questionnaire was applied to a sample of 485 citizens out of a total population of 103,000 residents. Based on statistical information from city council, respondents were selected randomly from among all residents aged 15 years old and over. The sample was stratified at the level of census areas and proportional to the number of inhabitants in each one. By gender 46.5 % of the sample is male and 53.5 % female, and by educational level as follows: No certified level completed 11.4 %; Primary level completed 31.9 %; Secondary completed 33.2 %; University Graduate 21.5 %; Postgraduate 2 %. By age the sample reflected that of the population according to the following age groups: 15–24, 25–34, 35–49, 50–64, 65+. Although a random test of responses from which some values were missing (MCAR) revealed that there is not a systematic bias in the data, we decided to omit questionnaire responses containing missing values rather than replace them using multiple imputation.

The questionnaire measured responses on a Likert scale of five points. The re- sponses correspond to satisfaction ratings or degree of agreement with the statement presented in the questionnaire, ranging from the value 1 for ‘very low/not satisfied or strongly disagree’, to the value 5 for ‘highly satisfied or totally agree’. The municipal geographical distribution comprises five districts and 59 census areas, and the popula- tion density varies between districts. As suggested by Kelly and Swindell (2002a), the sample was distributed by neighborhood. Sources of error were also minimized by using personal interviews as suggested by Kelly and Swindell (2002b). For the personal

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 105

face-to- face interviews a selection process was carried out to recruit suitable inter- viewers who were then submitted to a training process to avoid bias in collecting the information. The interviewers were organized in teams and they were assigned in each census area with maps of the city and specific instructions about the group of respon- dents to whom they had to administer the questionnaire. The survey was undertaken to evaluate the public policies for local safety and their relationship with perceived city cleanliness. The survey results were processed with STATA data analysis and statistical software.

4 Results

The descriptive statistics obtained from the survey are presented in Table 1. Low means of the variables directly related with Safety reveal citizens’ concerns with safety, where only the mean of variable ‘D.H. is a clean city’ is above 3, the middle value of the scale. High reliability, with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.745, was found thus indicating internal consistency. The results of the factor analysis by principal components explain 57.5 % of variance, showing the internal structure of the system. The Keiser-Meyer-Olkin measure of sampling adequacy (.729) indicates that the factor analysis was useful with the data, and Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity shows an approx. Chi-Squared of 363.903 and a significance (.000) lower than 0.05 indicates that there are probably significant relationships among the variables considered. Only one factor was extracted from the factor analysis, indicating that all the variables measure the same construct. The correlation matrix reveals positive and statistically significant (p-value 0.05)

Table 1 Descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha, correlation matrix and factor analysis

PUBLIC SAFETY Min Max N Mean SD

City Safety 1 5 470 2.14 1.01

Police 1 5 481 2.53 1.08

Police behaviour 1 5 383 2.85 1.20

D.H. is a clean city 1 5 485 3.20 1.11

Public Safety Cronbach’s Alpha (0.745) City Safety Police Police behaviour D.H. is a clean city

City Safety 1.0000

Police 0.531 0.0000

1.0000

Police behaviour 0.461 0.0000

0.623 0.0000

1.0000

D.H. is a clean city 0.319 0.0000

0.312 0.0000

0.261 0.0000

1.0000

Factor Analysis Factor1

City Safety 0.773

Police 0.848

Police behaviour 0.805

D.H. is a clean city 0.580

Own elaboration with data from STATA

106 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

relationships between variables. As all p-values of correlations are lower than 0.05, this indicates that they are statistically significant and this permits rejection of the null hypothesis of absence of relationship, and thus acceptance of the relationship.

A regression model is included in Table 2. Citizen satisfaction with ‘city Safety’ was considered as the dependent variable and Police, Police behavior and BD.H. is a clean city^ as three independent variables. Correlation between variables (Table 1), with no zero or very small values, and variance inflation factors (Table 2) for the independent variables, with values less than 10, indicate absence of multicollinearity. The variable used to confirm Systemic relationship and the Broken Windows theory was the variable relating to city cleanliness (BD.H. is a clean city^) and considered as independent. This variable loads the same factor in the factor analysis and correlates with the others although with a low correlation value. All variables were significant and fit the regression model indicating that they are able to predict the dependent variable. All variables were significant indicating that they fit the regression model so independent variables are able to predict the dependent variable.

5 Conclusions

Results determine the predictive ability of the regression model, demonstrating that public policies work as a System in which different policies are related. At the same time, these relationships prove that the Broken Windows theory is a particular case of the Systems approach to Public Policies since interaction between policies exist. Although BWT is not a marketing theory, this approach focus on security problems that affects city branding construction. Taken this point of view and interactions between the perception of safety and clean neighborhoods, local public decision- makers have applied BWT trying to resolve security problems that influence their whole city image strategy.

Whileistruethat‘crimemarketing’or‘antisocialbehaviourmarketing’isshiftingfrom physicaldecayandsocialdisordertoavirtualdecay/disorder,urbansensingandsensibility

Table 2 Regression model

City Safety Regression results-Model Beta T Sig.

Police .302 5.581 0.000

Police behaviour .187 3.883 0.000

D.H. is a clean city .152 3.562 0.000

Dependent variable: City Safety R-squared Adjusted R-squared Df

0.569 0.318 3/355

Variable VIF 1/VIF

Police 1.75 0.570995

Police behaviour 1.67 0.599493

D.H. is a clean city 1.13 0.882349

Mean VIF 1.52

Own elaboration with data from STATA

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 107

should be the turning point in the network. In order to achieve it, social marketing should encourage citizen engagement. Some examples are alive at this moment, when situation arise terrible and similar to New York in the eighties. This is the case Lima Metropolitan Area in which a city with closer to ten millions citizens suffers the continuous damaging blow of crime. In Lima a Social Marketing Campain (#CelularManchado) taken the road opened by Colombia with nomascelularesrobados.gov.co, is used for disseminating an anti-crime social opinion in search of a change in social behavior that will eliminate the marketfor stolengoods.Thiscould laythe groundworkfor achieving thesuppressionofa part of the criminal business. In Peru delinquency constantly tries to infiltrate politics to reverse the social order causing corruption and affecting institutions. It is time to reverse this situation and make ripen the democracy in the country, but it will be a difficult challenge given the lack of political party structure.

The possibility also exists of carrying out a normative modelling (planning) of each policy, with a variable level of decomposition of the actions. In consequence of this, it would be feasible to establish an internal control of how the actions involved in such policies are implemented, to measure the degree of compliance with the objectives of performance, services and time, as well as to control the physical and financial resources consumed. In view of the results, it is highly desirable to consider maintain- ing standards of cleanliness in the city according to citizen’s expectations.

Further research could also be directed towards including variables considered by the theory of Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, which emphasizes factors such as natural surveillance and access control as environmental determinants of crime, including, for example, street lighting and closed circuit TV cameras. Considering that perceptions were used to measure relations between policies, as an application of marketing technique to the land of public management as commonly used in NPM, future research should also consider the use of item response theory in order to control the effect of different cultural and racial respondents’ background and because it allows measurement invariance.

References

Ábalo, J., Varela, J., & Rial, A. D2006]. El análisis de importancia-valoración aplicado a la gestión de servicios. Psicothema, 18D4], 730–737. Retrieved from http://www.psicothema.com/psicothema.asp?id=3301.

Abalo, J., Varela, J., & Manzano, V. (2007). Importance values for importance–performance analysis: a formula for spreading out values derived from preference rankings. Journal of Business Research, 60, 115–121. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2006.10.009.

Almeida, A. M. M. D. (2010). From island mass tourism to rural tourism in Madeira: is there a place for a re- definition of islands image? Tékhne-Revista de Estudos Politécnicos, 14, 97–110.

Andreasen, A. R. (1994). Social marketing: Its definition and domain. Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, 13(1), 108–114.

Auping, W. L., Pruyt, E., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2015). Societal ageing in the Netherlands: a robust system dynamics approach. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 32(4), 485–501.

Belanche, D., Casaló, L. V., & Flavián, C. (2010). Providing online public services successfully: the role of confirmation of citizens’ expectations. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 7(2), 167–184.

Bianchi, C. (2015). Enhancing joined-Up government and outcome-based performance management through system dynamics modelling to deal with wicked problems: the case of societal ageing. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 32(4), 502–505.

108 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

Boggess, L. N., & Maskaly, J. (2014). The spatial context of the disorder-crime relationship in a study of Reno neighborhoods. Social Science Research, 43, 1168–183.

Bouzas-Lorenzo, R. (2010). Public sector marketing, political science and the science of public administration: the evolution of a transdisciplinary dialogue. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 7(2), 113–125.

Bowen, S. A., & Heath, R. L. (2005). Issues management, systems, and rhetoric: exploring the distinction between ethical and legal guidelines at Enron. Journal of Public Affairs, 5(2), 84–98.

Carvalho, C., Brito, C., & Cabral, J. S. (2010). Towards a conceptual model for assessing the quality of public services. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 7(1), 69–86.

Chahal, K., & Eldabi, T. (2011). Hybrid simulation and modes of governance in UK healthcare. Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, 5(2), 143–154.

Chahal, K., Eldabi, T., & Young, T. (2013). A conceptual framework for hybrid system dynamics and discrete event simulation for healthcare. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 26(1/2), 50–74.

Choudhury, K. (2014). The influence of customer-perceived service quality on customers’ behavioural intentions: a study of public and private sector banks, class and mass banking and consumer policy implications. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 11(1), 47–73.

Daneke, G. A. (2005). The reluctant resurrection: New complexity methods and Old systems theories. International Journal of Public Administration, 28(1,2), 89–106.

Dann, S. (2008). Adaptation and adoption of the American Marketing Association (2007) definition for social marketing. Social Marketing Quarterly,14(2), 92–100.

De Cillis, F., De Maggio, M. C., & Setola, R. (2015). Vulnerability assessment in RIS scenario through a synergic use of the CPTED methodology and the system dynamics approach. In railway infrastructure security (pp. 65–89). New York: Springer.

Ellison, G., Pino, N. W., & Shirlow, P. (2013). Assessing the determinants of public confidence in the police: a case study of a post-conflict community in Northern Ireland. Criminology & criminal justice, 13(5), 552– 576.

Engel, C., Beckenkamp, M., Glockner, A., Irlenbusch, B., Hennig-Schmidt, H., Kube, S., Kurschilgen, M., Morell, A., Nicklisch, A., Normann, H. T., & Towfigh, E. (2014). First impressions are more important than early intervention: qualifying broken windows theory in the lab. International Review of Law and Economics, 37, 126–136.

Featherston, C. R., & Doolan, M. (2013) Using System Dynamics to Inform Scenario Planning: A Case Study. The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 1–10.

Fisher, G. H. (1966). The analytical bases of systems analysis. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation. Forrester, J. W. (1968). Industrial dynamics-after the first decade. Management Science, Theory Series, 14(7),

398–415. Galan-Ladero, M. M., Galera-Casquet, C., & Wymer, W. (2013). Attitudes towards cause-related marketing:

determinants of satisfaction and loyalty. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 10(3), 253–269.

Gil, A., Benigno, R., Matsuura, M., Monzon, C. M., & Samothrakis, I. (2005). The use of system dynamics analysis and modeling techniques to explore policy levers in the fight against middle eastern terrorist groups. CA: Naval Postgradute School Monterey.

Godet, M. (1991). Prospectiva y Planificación Estratégica. S.G. Editores S.A. Barcelona España. Herian, M. N. and Tomkins, A. J. (2010). Citizen Satisfaction Survey Data: A Mode Comparison of the

Derived-Importance Performance Approach. The American Review of Public Administration XX(X): 1– 21. doi: 10.1177/0275074010393271

Jackson, M. C. (2006). Creative holism: a critical systems approach to complex problem situations. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 23(5), 647–657.

Kelling, G. L., & Coles, C. M. (1996). Fixing broken windows: Restoring order and reducing crime in Our communities. New York: Touchstone Books.

Kelling, G. L., & Wilson, J. Q. (1982). Broken windows. The police and neighborhood safety. The Atlantic, 127, 29–38 (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/198203/broken-windows).

Kelly, J. M., & Swindell, D. (2002a). Service quality variation across urban space: first steps toward a model of citizen satisfaction. Journal of Urban Affairs, 24(3), 271–288.

Kelly, J. M., & Swindell, D. (2002b). A multiple-indicator approach to municipal service evaluation: correlating performance measurement and citizen satisfaction across jurisdictions. Public Administration Review, 62(5), 612–613.

Klijn, E. (1998). Policy Networks: An Overview. In W. J. M. Kickert & J. F. Koppenjan (Eds.), Managing Complex Networks. London: Sage.

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 109

Klijn, E. H. (2001). Rules as institutional context for decision making in networks the approach to postwar housing districts in two cities. Administration & Society, 33(2), 133–164.

Kotler, P., & Roberto, E. L. (1989). Social marketing. Strategies for changing public behavior. New York: The Free Press.

Lecy, J. D., Mergel, I. A., & Schmitz, H. P. (2014). Networks in public administration: current scholarship in review. Public Management Review, 16(5), 644–665.

Leweling, T., & Sieber, O. (2007). Using systems dynamics to explore effects of counterterrorism policy. In System Sciences, 2007. HICSS 2007. 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on (pp. 198–198). IEEE.

Lopes, S. D. F., & Maia, S. C. F. D2012]. Applying importance-performance analysis to the management of health care services. China-USA Business Review, 11D2], 275–282. Retrieved from http://www. davidpublishing.com/davidpublishing/Upfile/2/21/2012/2012022183915705.pdf.

Madhavan, H., & Rastogi, R. (2013). Social and psychological factors influencing destination preferences of domestic tourists in India. Leisure Studies, 32(2), 207–217.

Madnick, S., & Siegel, M. (2008). A system dynamics (SD) approach to modeling and understanding terrorist networks. D&B DUNS Number 00-142-5594 Commercial and Government Entity (CAGE).

Martilla, J., & James, J. C. (1977). Importance-performance analysis. Journal of Marketing, 41(1), 77–9. Matei, L., & Matei, A. (2011). Integrated approach of the citizen’s role in relation to the public services.

International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 8(1), 11–24. Meek, J. W., & Newell, W. H. (2005). Complexity, interdisciplinarity and public administration: implications

for integrating communities. Public Administration Quarterly Randallstown: Fall., 29(3), 321–349. Michener, J. (2013). Neighborhood disorder and local participation: examining the political relevance of

Bbroken windows^. Political Behavior, 35(4), 777–806. Miranda, F. J., Chamorri, A., Murillo, L. R., & Vega, J. (2010). An importance-performance analysis of

primary health care services: managers vs. Patients perceptions. Journal of Service Science and Management, 3(2), 227–234. doi:10.4236/jssm.2010.32028.

Optner, S. L. (1968). L’analyse des systèmes et les problèmes de gestion. Paris: Traduit par V. Renard. Ortigueira-Bouzada, M. (1992). Imaxe e prosperidade urbana (Urban image and prosperity). Revista Galega

de Economía, 1(2), 17–51. Ortigueira-Bouzada, M. (1998). El futuro en la tarea de gobernar una entidad local: la responsabilidad

histórica VI Xornadas Galegas sobre Economía das Corporacions Localis (pp. 327–444). Santiago: Xunta de Galicia.

Ortigueira-Sánchez, L. C., & Gómez-Selemeneva, D. (2012). Innovation in tourist management through critical success factors: a fuzzy Map In soft computing in management and business economics (pp. 361– 373). Berlin Heidelberg: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-30451-4_25.

Ortigueira-Sánchez, L. C., Ortigueira-Bouzada, M., & Gómez-Selemeneva, D. (2015). Derived importance- performance analysis and diagonal model in a Spanish municipality. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 0020852315585510. 10.1177/0020852315585510

Osborne, D., & Gaebler, T. (1992). Reinventing government. Reading: Addison-Wesley. Pesonen, J., & Komppula, R. (2010). Rural wellbeing tourism: motivations and expectations. Journal of

Hospitality and Tourism Management, 17(01), 150–157. Pitner, R. O., Yu, M., & Brown, E. (2012). Making neighborhoods safer: examining predictors of residents’

concerns about neighborhood safety. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(1), 43–49. Quade, E. S. (1963). Military systems analysis, memorandum RM-3452-PR. Santa Monica: The RAND

Corporation. Rodríguez, P. G., Burguete, J. L. V., Vaughan, R., & Edwards, J. (2009). Quality dimensions in the public

sector: municipal services and citizens’ perception. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 6(1), 75–90.

Ross, C. E., & Mirowsky, J. (1999). Disorder and decay: the concept and measurement of perceived neighborhood disorder. Urban Affairs Review, 34(3), 412–432.

Rukus, J., & Warner, M. E. (2013). Crime rates and collective efficacy: the role of family friendly planning. Cities, 31, 37–46.

Skelcher, C., Klijn, E. H., Kübler, D., Sørensen, E., & Sullivan, H. (2011). Explaining the democratic anchorage of governance networks: evidence from four European countries. Administrative Theory & Praxis, 33(1), 7–38.

Slocum, L. A., Rengifo, A. F., Choi, T., & Herrmann, C. R. (2013). The elusive relationship between community organizations and crime: an assessment across disadvantaged areas of the south Bronx. Criminology, 51(1), 167–216.

110 L.C. Ortigueira-Sánchez

Steenbeek, W., Volker, B., Flap, H., & van Oort, F. (2012). Local businesses as attractors or preventers of neighborhood disorder. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 49(2), 213–248.

Stewart, J., & Ayres, R. (2001). Systems theory and policy practice: an exploration. Policy Sciences, 34(1), 79–94.

Streimikiene, D., & Bilan, Y. (2015). Review of rural tourism development theories. Transformations in Business & Economics, 14(2), 35.

Tsephe, N. P., & Obono, S. E. (2013, January). A Theoretical Framework for Rural Tourism Motivation Factors. In Proceedings of World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology (No. 73, p. 1001). World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology (WASET).

Upton, J., & Mansell, C. (2011). Building cohesion and trust in London—a social marketing approach. International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, 8(1), 57–71.

Van Buuren, A., & Klijn, E. H. (2006). Trajectories of institutional design in policy networks: European interventions in the Dutch fishery network as an example. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 72(3), 395–415.

Van Ryzin, G. G., & Immerwahr, S. (2004). Derived importance-performance analysis of citizen survey data. Public Performance and Management Review, 27(4), 144–173.

Van Ryzin, G. G., & Immerwahr, S. (2007). Importance-performance analysis of citizen satisfaction surveys. Public Administration, 85(1), 215–226. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9299.2007.00641.x.

von Bertalanffy, L. (1968). General system theory: Foundations, development, applications. New York: Braziller.

von Bertalanffy, L. (1972). History and status of general systems theory. Academy of Management Journal, 15(4).

Walliser, B. (1977). Systèmes et modèles. Paris: Introduction critique à l’analyse de systèmes. Aux Éditions du Seuil.

Wieland, L. (2013) Madrid. Capital of rubbish (Madrid. Hauptstadt des Mülls), Frankfurter Allgemeine 11/11/ 2013 (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/madrid-hauptstadt-des-muells-12658880.html).

Zahnow, R., Wickes, R., Haynes, M., & Mazerolle, L. (2013). Change and stability in ethnic diversity across urban communities: explicating the influence of social cohesion on perceptions of disorder. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 46(3), 335–356.

Influencing factors on citizen safety perception 111

Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.