statistics report
Project One: Data Visualization, Descriptive Statistics, Confidence Intervals
This notebook contains the step-by-step directions for Project One. It is very important to run through the steps in order. Some steps depend on the outputs of earlier steps. Once you have completed the steps in this notebook, be sure to write your summary report.
You are a data analyst for a basketball team and have access to a large set of historical data that you can use to analyze performance patterns. The coach of the team and your management have requested that you use descriptive statistics and data visualization techniques to study distributions of key performance metrics that are included in the data set. These data-driven analytics will help make key decisions to improve the performance of the team. You will use the Python programming language to perform the statistical analyses and then prepare a report of your findings to present for the team’s management. Since the managers are not data analysts, you will need to interpret your findings and describe their practical implications.
There are four important variables in the data set that you will study in Project One.
|
Variable |
What does it represent? |
|
pts |
Points scored by the team in a game |
|
elo_n |
A measure of the relative skill level of the team in the league |
|
year_id |
Year when the team played the games |
|
fran_id |
Name of the NBA team |
The ELO rating, represented by the variable elo_n, is used as a measure of the relative skill of a team. This measure is inferred based on the final score of a game, the game location, and the outcome of the game relative to the probability of that outcome. The higher the number, the higher the relative skill of a team.
In addition to studying data on your own team, your management has assigned you a second team so that you can compare its performance with your own team's.
|
Team |
What does it represent? |
|
Your Team |
This is the team that has hired you as an analyst. This is the team that you will pick below. See Step 2. |
|
Assigned Team |
This is the team that the management has assigned to you to compare against your team. See Step 1. |
Reminder: It may be beneficial to review the summary report template for Project One prior to starting this Python script. That will give you an idea of the questions you will need to answer with the outputs of this script.
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Step 1: Data Preparation & the Assigned Team
|
|
game_id |
year_id |
fran_id |
pts |
opp_pts |
elo_n |
opp_elo_n |
game_location |
game_result |
|
0 |
199511030CHI |
1996 |
Bulls |
105 |
91 |
1598.2924 |
1531.7449 |
H |
W |
|
1 |
199511040CHI |
1996 |
Bulls |
107 |
85 |
1604.3940 |
1458.6415 |
H |
W |
|
2 |
199511070CHI |
1996 |
Bulls |
117 |
108 |
1605.7983 |
1310.9349 |
H |
W |
|
3 |
199511090CLE |
1996 |
Bulls |
106 |
88 |
1618.8701 |
1452.8268 |
A |
W |
|
4 |
199511110CHI |
1996 |
Bulls |
110 |
106 |
1621.1591 |
1490.2861 |
H |
W |
printed only the first five observations...
Number of rows in the data set = 246
Step 2: Pick Your Team
|
|
game_id |
year_id |
fran_id |
pts |
opp_pts |
elo_n |
opp_elo_n |
game_location |
game_result |
|
0 |
201211020ATL |
2013 |
Hawks |
102 |
109 |
1532.7664 |
1524.9491 |
H |
L |
|
1 |
201211040OKC |
2013 |
Hawks |
104 |
95 |
1551.4714 |
1640.7040 |
A |
W |
|
2 |
201211070ATL |
2013 |
Hawks |
89 |
86 |
1555.2542 |
1551.0842 |
H |
W |
|
3 |
201211090ATL |
2013 |
Hawks |
89 |
95 |
1547.6481 |
1667.3300 |
H |
L |
|
4 |
201211110LAC |
2013 |
Hawks |
76 |
89 |
1540.6207 |
1587.7803 |
A |
L |
printed only the first five observations...
Number of rows in the data set = 246
Step 3: Data Visualization: Points Scored by Your Team
Step 4: Data Visualization: Points Scored by the Assigned Team
Step 5: Data Visualization: Comparing the Two Teams
Step 6: Descriptive Statistics: Relative Skill of Your Team
Your Team's Relative Skill in 2013 to 2015
-------------------------------------------------------
Mean = 1539.22
Median = 1513.5
Variance = 4917.03
Standard Deviation = 70.12
Step 7 - Descriptive Statistics - Relative Skill of the Assigned Team
Assigned Team's Relative Skill in 1996 to 1998
-------------------------------------------------------
Mean = 1739.8
Median = 1751.23
Variance = 2651.55
Standard Deviation = 51.49
Step 8: Confidence Intervals for the Average Relative Skill of All Teams in Your Team's Years
Confidence Interval for Average Relative Skill in the years 2013 to 2015
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
95% confidence interval (unrounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 2013 to 2015 = (1502.0236894390478, 1507.1824625533618)
95% confidence interval (rounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 2013 to 2015 = ( 1502.02 , 1507.18 )
Probability a team has Average Relative Skill LESS than the Average Relative Skill (ELO) of your team in the years 2013 to 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Which of the two choices is correct?
Choice 1 = 0.3797
Choice 2 = 0.6203
Step 9 - Confidence Intervals for the Average Relative Skill of All Teams in the Assigned Team's Years
Confidence Interval for Average Relative Skill in the years 1996 to 1998
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
95% confidence interval (unrounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 1996 to 1998 = (1487.6565859527095, 1493.6465501840999)
95% confidence interval (rounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 1996 to 1998 = ( 1487.66 , 1493.65 )
Probability a team has Average Relative Skill LESS than the Average Relative Skill (ELO) of Bulls in the years 1996 to 1998
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Answer = 0.9732